wntrtxn21
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Everything posted by wntrtxn21
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Brewers acquire Eduardo Escobar from Diamondbacks
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think Stearns is going to go with Urias at 3B and put any money into RF where it can do the most good. Escobar would be a luxury, but not the difference maker the Brewers desperately need. -
A’s Rebuild on the Horizon?
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I don't think the A's would want a high priced closer if they are going to tank and rebuild selling off their high end players. Maybe if the Brewers could do a 3-way deal with younger, cheaper talent going to the A's they could move Hader. -
JBJ exercises player option for 2022 season
wntrtxn21 replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Was JBJ ever a 3-4 WAR player other than his great season in 2016? I couldn't find all the WARs for him, but I don't remember him being that good other than his one great year. -
A’s Rebuild on the Horizon?
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I don't see Canha (2020-2021) being any better than Taylor at this point in his career. He doesn't have the power nor drive in enough runs to be a difference maker that would help the Brewers any more than Taylor. If the Brewers were not stuck with Bradley, he might be a nice pickup. -
A’s Rebuild on the Horizon?
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I don't understand the fascination with Chapman. He hit .210/.313 with a .716 OPS and K'd 202 times or 33% of his PAs. Plus he'll be making around $8M next year. Urias had a higher BA, OBP, OPS, drove in more runs in fewer ABs, whiffed less, and is a lot cheaper. Chapman wouldn't be a difference maker with the Brewers and just a waste of money. Olson, I think, would cost too much and the Brewers probably can't outbid some of the big money teams anyways. -
Nick Castellanos to be a Brewer?
wntrtxn21 replied to TURBO's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think after what we saw of Escobar in the playoffs, he's gone for sure. RF is the sticky point right now because it doesn't appear Garcia will be back. I'm OK with Urias-Adames-Wong-Tellez in the infield. Narvaez at C. By default Cain is in CF and they are stuck with Yelich is in LF. RF and possibly DH need big upgrades, plus another backup infielder who can play SS. -
Nick Castellanos to be a Brewer?
wntrtxn21 replied to TURBO's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Shed salary is one option. Raise payroll is another. Cots has the Brewers at 91 million on Opening Day 2018, which then jumped to 122.5 on OD19. Of course most of that was Yaz/Moose being available on one year deals & the Brewers financials were also probably more robust back in pre-pandemic times. Fast forward to now & Cots had OD21 at 99 million. I feel like the early estimates other users have done with Arby raises etc have OD22 ballparked around 100-105 million. If Mark A & company are willing to approach that OD19 number (& they should be willing to exceed it imo) for 2022 that should give Stearns & company enough room to sign a free agent hitter of Castellanos caliber. Make a trade to bring in a second impact bat & I'd call that a pretty solid offseason. I thought COTS had the 2022 OD payroll at $116.5M. SPORTAC had them at $121M, but that included Garcia. -
Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
wntrtxn21 replied to Roderick's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I would love this trade. Bohm is the type of hitter the Brewers should be targeting. High average, low strikeout (save his down 2021) hitter. More guys like this please. I don't think Hoskins would give the Brewers anything more than Tellez and he is already making near $5M and is arby eligible. I don't know if Bohm is a high average guy or not. In 160 ABs in 2020 he hit .338, but then in over 2 1/2 times the ABs in 2021 he hit .247/.305. So far he has shown little power (11 HRs in 594 PAs). Urias easily shows as much upside and has a lot more power for 3B. I like the Mets trade a whole lot better. Alonso is a ligit #4 hitter and Ramirez is a very nice prospect. Diaz would be a fall-back if Williams failed as a closer. -
Trading Mitchell and Small would basically be doing a Marlins-style strategy to put everything on the table for one year and then blow it all up. Note that if Burnes, Woodruff and Adames continue to play at their current level, they'll each make $20M+ in their final year of arby. Throw in the "big time bats" you're looking at trading for, and there is no way the Brewers could afford their players in a 2-3 years, so the "Marlins blow up strategy" would be after next year, or maybe 2023 at the latest. That's putting way too much risk on the table for me. I think we need to hold onto our top prospects, go into next year with a slightly modified version of the team that won 95 games this year, and move forward with a "sustainable success" strategy and not one that pretty much guarantees us a decade-long, painful rebuild. It's a catch 22 situation. If they don't trade off some of the top prospects for improved offense, with the budget constraints, they are doomed to the same below average offense we saw in the playoffs and the same results or worse. If the Brewers can't afford many of their best players in 3 years, then they are stuck with a putrid offense and possibly worse pitching. Eventually small market teams have to make a decision.
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Why in the world would the A's want anything to do with Yelich if he continues to stink? No prospect or Houser/Lauer would be worth the tremendous amount of salary they would be taking on. If Andrus doesn't get the ABs next year he would be a FA in 2023 and Chapman would have two years at about 1/2 of Yelich's contract. A big no thanks on Hosmer and his contract.
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Cooper and Schwarber for sure, but I don't think either Belt or Rizzo would be affordable options or even on the Brewers' radar. Belt will be 34, coming off surgery, and already making $17M. I doubt the Crew would want to spend that kind of money on him. Tellez gives the Brewers as much if not more than Rizzo and would be $15-17M cheaper, so I don't think there would be any interest in Rizzo. I believe Schwarber has a mutual option and the Red Sox have already said they want him back. I don't think the Brewers can outbid the Sox even if he declines the option. Cooper would be a major help at a couple of positions if available. Is he a FA or would it take a trade to get him?
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Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
wntrtxn21 replied to Roderick's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
No and you do not understand finance at all and that is putting it nicely. So, I will put you down for if baseball had a salary floor of $150 million the Brewers will cease to exist. Got it. I know finance just fine thank you. If baseball had a salary floor of $150M many teams would cease to exist. You'd be back to the 1950's where there were 8 teams in each league. -
Like MadThinker said; Cleveland is looking to deal some starting pitching, not add a SP. They have Bieber-Civale-Pleasac-Quantril-and 4 or 5 young guys they like a lot. If they are serious about challanging the WhiteSox next year, they will be looking for a haul of MLB ready players to fill needs immediately if they trade Ramirez.
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I think the Brewers have a 2023 team option on Wong at $10M.
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Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
wntrtxn21 replied to Roderick's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The fact they don't spend for bats in FA shows they aren't serious about contending. What they are serious about it seems is "hoping" all the breaks go their way when/if they do make the playoffs. If they are truly serious about contending, extend the payroll by a big margin until the stud arms become FA's and after that they can strip the payroll down to nothing. If it gets you a world series it's worth it, it's the best way to do it because using "hope" as their strategy like they have been will continually get them nowhere. Again, this is false. They spent 200+ million on Christian Yelich. Just because he was "already theirs" and you don't personally count that as spending, doesn't mean it doesn't count. Just because he sucks now also doesn't mean it doesn't count. Spending 200+ million on a guy that was, at the time, a premier, top 5 talent is absolutely serious. Just because you don't personally count it because it doesn't meet your very specific, oddly defined criteria, doesn't mean the team isn't serious about contending. You keep bringing this up it seems so you can "beat your chest" that you're right. In a sense you are...but you are PURPOSELY ignoring the whole gist of my posts on this when you KNOW damn well what I'm talking about. Yes they spend $200 million on Yelich...good for them. But the whole point is...we aren't talking TOTAL contracts, it's about YEARLY payroll, and you know this. Now if their YEARLY payroll was $200 million, you'd be spot on. And NO I don't expect them to ever have a payroll that high. Love how you repeatedly cite the "total" amount of his contract like it's the yearly total. Spend 20+ mill on a couple other bats and see what happens. Wanna bet Yelich's contract it would make a HUGE difference?? C'mon bet me..I DARE you. Now you'll say "they can't afford that" I will call total and 100% BS. Add $40 million to the payroll(2 $20 mill bats/avg) payroll is about what $135-$140 million?? And that would be WITH JBJ opting not to decline his option and also Avi NOT declining his option. Wanna tell me again, how it "can't" happen?? Keep beating that drum. You seem to convenietly forgetting that Yelich goes up by $12M plus at least $18 in arby pay already adds $30M to the payroll. Now add your "easily affordable" $40M and their payroll is now in the $175-$180M range. -
Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
wntrtxn21 replied to Roderick's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I don't believe the Mariners would trade France for Hader. They traded Nola and Adams to the Padres to get France and Trammell, so I think it would take more than a LRP for them to move France, especially now because Seager is going to be history. -
Yelich is owed about $140M more than Hicks and unless the Brewers threw in major cash ($95+M) I can't see the Yankees even considering a Yelich for Hicks deal. I think both teams are stuck with their bad contracts. So you are putting Yelich's yearly value below 8mil. Below JBJs value. Yeah you might want to question your thinking. The Yankees are loaded with 1Bil plus revenue yearly. Understand removing a near 10mil a yr contract for a potential MVP type at 16mil a year and then holding a bad finish is a lottery luxury they could take on. The Yankees don't need Yelich to be #1 batter on their team like Milwaukee does. But a Yelich like 2018 performance exceeds anything they can buy in FA this year for 16mil. Find a 2019 Yelich version and You're the smartest, slickest GM in baseball. There wasn't a prospect sought back to the Brewers in the idea. Just trading contracts that each franchise could handle. Brewers with little upside, Yankees with Elite upside. Would think this is a slam dunk trade for NY while the embarrassment potential for Milws side be why it wouldn't happen. Say Haines is let go and a new voice leads to a return more to 2018 Yelich. Cause that is all Yeli has had to work with after signing that contract. You are assuming Yelich will return to something close to his 2018 form. In that case trading Yelich would make Stearns one of the most idiotic GMs in the business because they extended him hoping he could be that Yelich of 2018/2019. If Hicks returns to his 2018 form (.248/.366/.467 with an 19% K rate) the Yankees would be stupid to trade him and his $10M contract. In reality neither guy has been much for at least two years. The Yankees could add a pretty good FA for the $140M extra they would be paying Yelich.
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Yelich is owed about $140M more than Hicks and unless the Brewers threw in major cash ($95+M) I can't see the Yankees even considering a Yelich for Hicks deal. I think both teams are stuck with their bad contracts.
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I think the playoffs showed they will not try and re-sign Escobar. Castellanos, Martinez, and McCutchen will be out of their price range by a lot. Cruz would only be a possibility if there is a DH. Same with Schwarber who is a butcher in LF and he too will probably be out of their price range. I don't think Canha offers anything more than Taylor and Canha was already making $7M. With arby guys going to cost $18-23M, plus the monstrous increase for Yelich, the payroll is already increasing $30-35M. Signing any of these FAs will take more than a bit of increased spending. IMO a trade may be the only way to help the anemic offense.
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Why would the White Sox have any interest in your deal? Cain and Kuechel have almost the same contract. They would be trading Sheets and Burger for 2 yrs of Wong and his $19m contract. I think the Sox value Sheets, Burger, and Hernandez more than they would Wong.
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For the Phillies I think you start with Bohm and you would need at least one or two more after him. Bohm probably should be a 1B and if you stick him there I think you get enough offensive output there. For the Mets if you can steal Alonso that is where I would start otherwise there is not much there. For the Yankees it wouldn't be someone that helps now as I would target Dominguez. The Red Sox something like Duran, Dalbec and another piece should be good. The White Sox I think you try and steal Vaughn if possible. The only player mentioned that could help the Brewers in their small window of opportunity is Alonso. I doubt the Mets would let him go. Dalbec sucks with his 35% whiff rate and the rest have too much to prove or are too far away to be of any help.
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Yes, our pitching is great but lately it seems like if our opponent gets a couple of runs we are screwed. I voiced this concern a few times the last couple of weeks of the regular season and some here told me not to worry, that we were resting players and saving them for the post season. How unfortunate if we squander this opportunity because we can't hit our way out of a paper bag. The Brewers came limping into the playoffs playing some of the worst offensive baseball of anybody in the game. That has obviously carried over to the playoffs. The inability to at least put the ball in play continues to haunt them. They have wiffed a staggering 24 times of their 51 outs in the series so far. Great pitching isn't going to do anything unless the Crew can right the ship and start hitting.
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I still believe MLB missed their opportunity where they should have moved the Rays to Miami and moved the Marlins to Montreal. The Rays in Miami would sell out while the Marlins barely sell out at all. Also the Rays owners have supposedly pissed off a lot of the other MLB owners especially the smaller market teams that have been investing their shared revenue by improving their MLB teams by using that money to increase payroll while the Rays have been mostly pocketing the money. It is one of the reasons why the $100m minimum cap was leaked to the media. Some of the small market teams are not happy with the Rays ownership right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see a vote where they force the Rays owners to sell at some point in the future especially if they get a new stadium and don't commit to spending. If the owners are not able to convince or force a sale get ready for a salary cap minimum to be set at some point. I think the salary cap minimum is going to be part of the new collective bargaining along with the DH to the NL and one or two more playoff teams. The salary cap minimum will be the owners concession to the players to add another playoff team or two. I believe the owners will take away a teams revenue sharing and probably bonus slot money for the draft and international signing. As much as MLB likes what the Rays are doing on the field they hate them even more business wise. I can't see the owners settling for a salary minimum without a hard cap (which the players would never want). No small market management could or should be upset with the way the Rays spend their money. Every franchise can do the exact same thing if they think it's the right thing to do. No way in the world smaller market owners would take on a $100M minimum just to add a playoff team.
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Mountcastle is a 1B/LF. I don't believe the O's would want any part of the deal, but for the Crew it would all depend on re-signing Escobar first.
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Sure don't think anybody would be disappointed to land Matt Olson, I know I wouldn't. I guess as with anything else it depends on the price. I think you're probably talking a package of 3 to 4 decent prospects centered on one of Mitchell or Turang to get it done. We have a lot of prospect huggers around here. And I get that to a degree. The window is wiiiiiide open right now though. Adding a bat like Olson opens it further, for a couple years anyway. I would be hesitant to part with Mitchell, just because he's close and he fills an obvious need, but everyone else is fair game from my POV. I think everything depends on how the A's see themselves next year. If they think they have a shot at the Astros, Olson isn't going for just prospects, if they trade him at all.

