brewerfan82

I don't know, we're starting to hit that "teams are pretty set with their rosters already, I better take what's available to me"/"Stearns' grab bag" time of year for free agents. Ozuna, with draft pick compensation attached to him, may be even more likely to take a one year deal to try again next year without the pick attached, but Castellanos is still young enough where taking a one year "prove it" deal might still be tempting for him at this point if he hasn't been offered anything he likes yet. Neither guy is a great fit with the Brewers right now, but I could see both going for less than expected at this point.

Just flipped on tonight's game. The Nets' grey court with the teams' slightly muted uni colors give the game an interesting look. I thought I was watching a video game in some sort of throwback mode at first, lol.

I cringe whenever Brewer World is quoted. I really hope this thread (or any thread for that matter) doesn't spin into nonsense because of his tweets... He is 100% a parody account.

Even just taking the three year splits on most of these guys (which include some pretty awful seasons) sets a pretty good bar for what to hope for. And here are the outgoing players' 3-year splits, pretty comparable (for a lot less money):

Respectfully, no. Hader is as important as it gets. Whatever his trade value is approximated at, MKE would be worse off dealing him 1 for 1 for an equal trade value OF 3b SS etc. All those bats of equal trade value would have less impact than Hader. Any SP who has equal trade value to Hader pitches in lower leverage situations and would have less impact. It's a question of value and worth. His worth far exceeds his value and you only deal him if you aren't planning to win. Guys who can pull down the team ERA are insanely valuable. It's what makes Cole get 300+ mil. He covers a lot of sins and as MKE has shown 4.0 ERA guys are easy to find. Its the guys who drag that ERA down from 4 that make or break your team. As I pointed out. Hader alone dropped the pen ERA by 0.22. That's covering a lot of sins and you don't fix that with a bat because a bat can't end a game whenever an advantage is in place. "It's about improving the run differential in the aggregate among all 26 players on the roster." You will not make up that difference and impact. It's not as easy as you are making it out to be. It's much easier to manufacture above league average totals at a position than you believe. The gains you assume your gaining aren't as significant as you dream up. The loss of Hader would be dramatic. It would turn wins into loses. There's absolutely no way to manufacture that and the rules of the league made it even harder to do. If we can find a GM that values Hader to the extent that you do, we should trade him to that guy immediately.

Respectfully, no. Hader is as important as it gets. Whatever his trade value is approximated at, MKE would be worse off dealing him 1 for 1 for an equal trade value OF 3b SS etc. All those bats of equal trade value would have less impact than Hader. Any SP who has equal trade value to Hader pitches in lower leverage situations and would have less impact. It's a question of value and worth. His worth far exceeds his value and you only deal him if you aren't planning to win. Guys who can pull down the team ERA are insanely valuable. It's what makes Cole get 300+ mil. He covers a lot of sins and as MKE has shown 4.0 ERA guys are easy to find. Its the guys who drag that ERA down from 4 that make or break your team. As I pointed out. Hader alone dropped the pen ERA by 0.22. That's covering a lot of sins and you don't fix that with a bat because a bat can't end a game whenever an advantage is in place. "It's about improving the run differential in the aggregate among all 26 players on the roster." You will not make up that difference and impact. It's not as easy as you are making it out to be. It's much easier to manufacture above league average totals at a position than you believe. The gains you assume your gaining aren't as significant as you dream up. The loss of Hader would be dramatic. It would turn wins into loses. There's absolutely no way to manufacture that and the rules of the league made it even harder to do. If we can find a GM that values Hader to the extent that you do, we should trade him to that guy immediately.

Looks like a .781 OPS would be average to slightly above average. MLB 3B 2017-19:

2019 Brewers C 2020 Brewers C Options ('17-19 stats) 2019 Brewers 1B 2020 Brewers 1B Options ('17-19 stats) 2019 Brewers 2B 2020 Brewers 2B Options ('17-19 stats) 2019 Brewers 3B 2020 Brewers 3B Options ('17-19 stats) 2019 Brewers SS 2020 Brewers SS Options ('17-19 stats) 2019 Brewers LF 2020 Brewers LF Options ('17-19 stats) 2019 Brewers CF 2020 Brewers CF Options ('17-19 stats) 2019 Brewers RF 2020 Brewers RF Options ('17-19 stats) Looks like offensively they have a chance to better at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and CF. That said, defensively there is a lot to be desired...

Yep, looks like a nice 3B option against lefties. 2017-19 vs LHP:

I'll second this. Great book!

Curious as to why Stearns would be interested in Castro, but seemed to have no interest in Cabrera who was so much cheaper, and a little better player? I don't think you can make an assumption that Stearns wasn't interested just because it wasn't reported. He seems to be interested in anyone at the right price and checks in on so many players that I'd be surprised if he didn't have some contact with Cabrera's camp at some point. He just keeps things close to the vest and in this case it may have been clear early on that Cabrera was only interested in rejoining the Nats (which could explain the low price if there wasn't really any competition for him).

Your overall point is valid, Donaldson's likely to outplay his contract, however you're playing with fire when you speak in absolutes. You state the 0.0 WAR on a lost season isn't negative value, but you leave out that it's actually -$27.5M value because of his projected contract. You even go on to mention that just two years ago he had injury issues and only provided $10M worth of value, which would also be a loss value-wise. Again, your overall point that over 4 years he's likely to outproduce that contract when he's produced $39.4-69.7M worth of value every single full season of his career is a good one, you're just going to rub people the wrong way when you speak in absolutes and ignore the possibility of injuries, especially on an aging player who will be 37 years old at the end of a 4 year contract. There hasn't been a single player in sports history that age regression hasn't happened to. The question is when will it happen and Donaldson is definitely entering the "you better consider the possibility he may start to regress" part of his career. He has a ton of room for regression where he's still going to be a valuable player even with that contract, but you start mixing regression with the potential for injuries as a player ages and it's a real possibility that he doesn't reach that $110M worth of value over the course of his contract. It may not be likely, but it is definitely not "zero risk." It sucks for the player, but a team just can't throw that kind of money at a player without entering that into the equation. All that said, I'd be *ecstatic* if the Brewers surprise everyone and grab him, even for 4/yrs $110M

I think most of the opposing viewpoints on this matter come down to two types of people: 1.) Those that believe you only consider trading him if you get an absurd return. You have 4 years of control, you should ask for the moon and if you don't get it, there's still a ton of time to get a huge return later on, and in the meantime you have Josh FREAKING Hader on your team. or 2.) Those that believe you consider trading him if the trade makes the team/organization better. Yes, he has 4 years of control left, but relievers are notoriously unpredictable and injuries happen. You're not likely to get offered more in a trade as his years of control decrease and his cost increases, and if he doesn't continue being the best reliever on the planet, his value could drop drastically. Both viewpoints are very valid in their own ways and both have their pitfalls. But neither deserves some of the backlash that's been getting thrown at them. Improving the team can come in many forms, if you don't think a poster's idea for a trade makes the team better overall, explain what you would change about it. But these angry and demeaning, "if you don't get a top 20 prospect then you're settling for peanuts" posts aren't offering much to the discussion. No one is suggesting to trade Hader just to trade him. There's just a lot of difference in opinion of where on the scale of "makes the team better overall" to "is a fair return for an elite reliever" to "impossible to turn down" is the threshold for pulling the trigger on a possible trade at this point.

I wouldn't rule out out Turner just because he's owed ~$20M for 1 year (is it actually $19M without the signing bonus?). DS basically did the same thing with Grandal last year on a 1 year, $18.5M deal. He would be a great bat that hits both lefties and righties well to throw into the 3/4 hole in the lineup (128 wRC+ vs RHP and 142 wRC+ vs LHP last year, which is comparable to Donaldson's 135/123 splits and dwarfs Moose's 109/122 splits). Of course the big difference is that DS would have to give something up in addition to paying the money, but I could see him as a guy MA's willing to give the "special player" exception to and stretch the budget a bit.

* 4 years of control left

While he's not overly exciting, Seager really does feel like an ideal fit to round out the position players on this team. Defensively he makes the whole team feel okay-ish in comparison to the potential disaster of throwing an Andujar/Castellanos-type out there. And on offense he could get a boost moving to Miller Park and be a nice 25-30 HR bat from the left side. CF-Cain ® RF-Yelich (L) 2B-Hiura ® 1B-Smoak (S) / Braun ® LF-Braun ® / Garcia ® 3B-Seager (L) / Healy ® C-Narvaez (L) / Pina ® SS-Urias ® / Sogard (L)

Considering the past two seasons their biggest moves were made in mid-January or later (Yelich, Cain, Grandal, and Moustakas), I think there's still plenty of time to pull off some nice acquisitions. I'd disagree with this being backwards. They came into the season with a ton of holes to fill (C, 1B, 3B, SS, Util IF, OF depth, SP, SP...SP, RP...RP). 3B wasn't the only, and wasn't even necessarily the biggest hole to fill at the time, they had to find options for all over the field. If DS had targeted a big 3B acquisition right out of the box, it would have immediately limited the financial flexibility, trade asset flexibility, and/or positional flexibility he had in finding players to fill the rest of the team with. Instead, he first targeted value acquisitions, regardless of specific position, to fill out the team. This has left him with a ton of resource flexibility to target the remaining spots on the roster that could still improve the most, namely 3B. But even at 3rd he's in a much better spot with Sogard/Healy/Urias than he came into the offseason with, so he doesn't need to make a desperate move if the right opportunity doesn't come along. That said, I'd place my bets on one or two more significant moves being made before Spring rolls around.

Why does it matter that Castellanos is out there? They already have enough OF and their hole is at 3B. And no he’s not a 3B just like Braun isn’t Because I'm concerned about not having enough lineup protection for Yelich above all else. They still need a big bat. No question about it. If you can get a guy like him, you do it, and figure out positions/playing time later. I don't worry about defense so much with all the shifting etc that goes on now days. You make it work. Bat always plays. So you're saying you're cool with Andujar at 3rd

Ha, alright, well I hope they can get the return everyone seems to think they deserve, but I think it's quite possible people are going to be very underwhelmed by whatever they end up getting for him even if it makes the organization stronger. Time to put on my lucky hat and hope he doesn't fall apart/get injured the first half of the season!

Fair enough point on Andujar's defense. That said, I think people are seeing his name and getting stuck on the possibility of him being *the centerpiece* of a deal. But I don't think that's really been insinuated by any rumors, he's just been speculated as an obvious fit as part of a package. Are people really going to complain for instance if it's a Garcia/Andujar package coming back?

Why does everyone have so much hate for Andujar being a part of a package coming back? Yes he's only had one good season in the majors, but that's out of one and only one full season, lol. He has 54 big league at bats outside of his one fantastic year and turns only 25 in March. He's also one of these guys that got better as he went through the minor league ranks while being young for each level: 2015 (A+, 20 yrs old) - .243/.288/.363/.651 2016 (A+/AA, 21) - .273/.332/.410/.742 2017 (AA/AAA, 22) - .315/.352/.498/.850 2018 (MLB, 23) - .297/.328/.527/.855 To this point, he has a career .819 OPS and 119 wRC+ on a very reasonable .308 BABIP. He's also under control for another 4 years still (his age 25-28 seasons). I completely understand wanting more than just Andujar, but he certainly seems like a nice piece for a team that has a gaping hole at 3B right now and I don't feel like it's a reach grabbing him as a 3B. Of course it all depends on what's coming along with him, but the dismissiveness of him being a part of the package seems perplexing to me.

I'd love Sano, but even if the Twins sign Donaldson, I think they'd prefer to hold onto him and put him at first. That said, I'm definitely on the Sano bandwagon if they make him available. I would think pitching would be enticing for the Twins and everyone's favorite MLB Trade Values site puts him right around the same level as Peralta or Houser, so maybe they would find a match there, but I would definitely hope the Crew could find some additional SP help elsewhere then as well.

So we're basically right where we were at this time last year... and then BAM: January 14, 2019: Yasmani Grandal signed as a Free Agent with the Milwaukee Brewers for $16M (+$2.25M buyout). February 19, 2019: Mike Moustakas signed as a Free Agent with the Milwaukee Brewers for $7M (+$3M buyout). It is quite possible the team went over budget last year and would like to avoid doing so again this year, but one of the great things that Mark A's shown in his tenure as the owner is the flexibility to make the money available when the right deal presents itself. That combined with DS' patience and stubbornness to stick with his player evaluations has resulted in the January/February deals they've been able to strike the past two offseasons. Those opportunities may not happen again this year, but there are still a lot of FA and trade possibilities out there and the longer Donaldson/Ryu/Castellanos/Hill/Betances/Wood/Frazier/Nova remain on the market and teams fill needs other ways, the more likely one of them drops into DS' asking price and MA can tell him to pull the trigger. All that said, DS has done an amazing job incrementally improving this team around the edges to the point that they're already arguably "similar" in talent to last year. If he can get another deal or two done in the next couple months, this should be a pretty interesting team going into the 2020 season.

Can they just do a Seager/Sheffield/Adams for Arcia/40-man filler swap and call it an offseason? Solidify 3B, get another rotation arm option with potential, and another guy to fight for a spot in the pen.

I'm pessimistic that other teams will be desperate enough during the offseason to overpay for him when they can take a shot with their current guys and/or acquire some FAs and see how they look before giving up someone that would "help us big time" (and likely take away from their major league roster as well). I think the deadline is when teams who have had bullpen issues the first half of the year could get desperate enough to cough up some real talent.