jay87shot

What about Gio Urshela as an under the radar 3B signing, he was pretty good defensively there last year (only 270 innings) but has been a solid bat most of his career and would probably fit into a 1/2 year deal at a reasonable sum. We would still have Black and Monte to cover if injuries occur, and Gio can play some 1st or 2b if needed.

I don't have the numbers but 1st, 3rd, 2b, RF, DH, CF all were really poor for offensive season stats. So lets say Burnes is worth 4-6 WAR next year. In my head, trading Burnes gets us a 2nd/3rd baseman that hopefully adds 2 WAR, maybe a piece 2B/3rd that adds 1 and signing Severino or a different vet pitcher is like 3 WAR the parts traded for and the $ used elsewhere provides a similar value

Wow 280 out of 330 on fastballs and Turang 328 of 330. Great stats find, one would think that working on hitting fastballs would be on the easier end of training for the offseason.

I don't think trading Burnes gives up the season, my thinking is that by trading him we would play a little moneyball. Add a young starter that can take up part of his value, possible a 2nd piece as well, and then use the money he is owed to improve somewhere else. I agree getting a good prospect like Porter/Leiter wouldn't be ideal since they would be a bit away. My scenerios would be him going to LA for Pepiot and Miguel Vargas or Balt. Mayo and Norby and then signing a vet arm with upside like Luis Severino for a year to make up for Burnes. I probably would trade whomever gets a better overall package between Burnes and Williams. Burnes carries more value as a starter but Williams has an extra year and some teams will be desperate for a lockdown closer and may overpay with Hader as the only high-end closer (assuming Kimbrel is not lockdown any more).

I like the Cueto comp. from the article, I see CRod having a pretty high floor but lower ceiling with the current repertoire. Probably a ceiling in the Freddy Peralta realm as a high end 3/passible 2 with a floor of a solid 4/5 starter. At 21, wouldn't surprise me to see him add a couple mph and raise that profile but he is that big/tall to just clean up a small issue and get a couple ticks.

Quality controllable relievers have value. 1.5 years of Paul Sewald got a slightly less but similar package to Hader. Both of those guys have 3 years of control, had 1.5 WAR, around 2.5 era's. I set my sights high on value, there are only 10-12 decent relievers and Payamps and Wilson won't make nearly as much as them. I agree that my returns are high but someone could very well overpay for either guy.

We discussed Burnes or Williams for young guys. Would there be any vets that would fit into a trade. Maybe even trading a blocked-ish prospect like Quero or Weimer/Mitchell for a proven bat or arm. Burnes for Jeff McNeil, David Peterson, and Blade Tidwell would be interesting. The Mets have McNeil, Baty, Acuna, and Mauricio for 2B and 3B, if they keep the 3 young guys McNeil would seem to fit our front office goal of getting contact first players. Peterson is an upside lefty who was better after a terrible start (another good arm our staff could fix). Burnes for Gleybar Torres, Chase Hampton, and 3rd piece For some reason the Yank fans don't like Gleybar much, he would be a solid bat at 2B and then Hampton would be a high upside arm for the long term. Maybe Weimer for Gleybar and a midlevel-prospect as well works. Other ideas?

I find it crazy that we have an 18 year old who hit well in high A ball with advanced skills across the board (not power) and he really hasn't garnered any top 100 notarity and is #8 on our list. I guarantee if Lara was in a big market he is a top 100 prospect. I kind of get a Jimmy Rollins (OF version) from the highlights I see of Lara.

I thought Pratt looked a lot like a raw JJ Hardy. The bat has more upside at this point of his career. Probably the prospect I am most excited to follow next year.

Hard not to say Contreras. Special props to the bullpen in general, no doubt they were the biggest overall change from last year to this.

Pretty sure I remember an announcer say bo-vee. That doesn't mean he was right. He was announced for the draft as bo-vee as well.

I like Boeve but he is lower on my list of prospects, with questions around power, speed, and defense guys like Brown, Adams, Bitonti, Y Rodriguez, and Knoth all have much bigger upsides for me. Boeve probably has a pretty high floor if his hit tool stands and he can be a solid utility player but I don't see much upside unless he stays a .300 hitter or really develops a lot more power which he didn't show in Appleton. I still loved the pick of him, saving money and getting an upside IF piece that our organization should do well developing.

What about this. 1) Burnes to Balt. for 1B Ryan Mountcastle, 2B Connor Norby, and OF Billy Cook If I'm the O's my future IF is Mayo, Westburg, Holiday, and Henderson. For us we get 2 young solid power hitters for the right side of our IF. Mountcastle is a proven bat who help lengthen out our lineup immediately. Norby would be a great 2B option and Cook gives us AAA OF depth incase the injury bug hits again. 2) Payamps to Tex for Jack Leiter We sell high on Payamps, Leiter gets a change of scenery and we get a top of the rotation talent for a throw in piece last year. 3) Bryce Wilson to NYM for Blade Tidwell Same thing as Payamps, we sell high to a team who is desperate for quality bullpen arms. 4) Adames to Giants for Mason Black and Will Bednar In this scenerio we get IF pieces for Burnes so we turn Willy into 2 interesting arms. Free Agents= Miley 1/10 and Luis Severino 1/8 incentives to 16, Woody 2 year deal 1)LF Frelick 2)C Contreras 3)DH Yeli 4)1B Mountcastle 5) CF Mitchell 6) 2B Norby 7) 3B Black 8)SS Turang 9)RF Weimer/Taylor Obviously this is really young but it has great upside. Add in Chourio at some point and even better. Rotation) Peralta, Miley, Severino, Ashby, Houser, Gasser Missing a true ace but if we resign Woody and some young guys blossom there are tons of top of the rotation options. Pen) Williams, Uribe, Megill, Milner, Peguero, 2 of Vieira, Small, Andrews, couple vet minor league deals. The depth takes a hit but the upside is still there and I trust Arnold to find a gem somewhere. Add in high end arms in AA/AAA in Rodriguez, Misi, Leiter, Tidwell, and Black and that gives us plenty of arms for 2025 or to package to get a SS or ace in a trade at the deadline. If things aren't great we could still trade some vets and have a super strong young team for 2025.

Don't forget Hader's trade value went down a ton because his ERA was like 5 at the time we traded him. Williams has a value just about the same as Hader before Hader imploded in July 22'. We also got Taylor Rogers who was a quality closer before his own problems, he would gave been worth a quality 3rd prospect instead. Williams has a 24 value on the trade simulator (which I hate) which is the same as Misi straight up or a package of Black, Lara, and Aeienamo. Also with a lack of great bullpen options I would guess there is even more demand for a high end closer making him closer to a 30 value in my opinion. Also 1 trade simulator thing that upset me. Abner Uribe is listed at a 4 value, Luis Medina (who we cut in Sept., I believe) has a 5.7 value.

In any deal I'd prefer for quality over quantity. Instead of 1 solid prospect and 2 or 3 lower prospects we should maybe just look for 2 higher end players. To LA for Gavin Stone and Miguel Vargas NYY for Clark Schmidt and Chase Hampton (maybe a small 3rd piece) Burnes and Peguro for Coby Mayo, Conner Norby, and P Alex Pham Burnes and Braves for Vaughn Grissom and Waldrep Dbacks for Yu-Min Lu, Ivan Melendez, and AJ Vukovich (ok this is quantity over quality) Boston for Ceddanne Rafaela and Blaze Jordan Detriot for Jace Jung and Ty Madden (Detriot was sneaky not terrible and should have lots of money to spend, Burnes would be a sneaky great move for them if they could sign long term) Twins for Bailey Ober and Jose Miranda (maybe 3 piece) Mets for Ronny Mauricio, Blade Tidwell, Christian Scott (quantity again but the Mets don't have a high end pitcher) Giants for Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black, and Aeverson Artega Cards for Goldschmidt, Tekoah Roby (still love Goldy trade idea) Rays for Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda, and Manny Margot (trade Margot elsewhere in 3 team deal) Burnes and Peguero to Rangers for Ezekiel Duran and Owen White (maybe 3rd piece) Jay's for Alex Manoeh, Addison Barger, and Spencer Horwitz To say there are lots of options is an understatement. I didn't run any through the trade machine but all should be halfway reasonable.

Love this idea, maybe not to start 2024.

I don't think I'd call it a rebuild but I am more ready than ever to do a re-tool. I am still in the trade Burnes side of things but now the return needs to be a mlb ready pitcher over IF. This also makes trading Devin more likely as well because he will likely get the most back after Burnes. In the process of trading those we may as well trade Willy. In doing that we save like 50 million so we could also take on a contract by trade or through free agency. If don't right we don't need to give up on next year but our team will like more like the Reds of last year with young upside pitching and bats all over the place.

I think it really is looking at long term pitching with Burnes, Woody, and Houser FA's after next year and Miley, Rea, and Teheran in FA this year the 2025 rotation after Peralta is really a question mark. Something like Peralta, Ashby, Misi, Rodriguez, Gasser could be amazing but also has lots possible hurdles to jump. I am sure we will get a solid starter one way or another this offseason and hopefully turn a reliever into a bat or upside prospect. With how good we have been at finding and fixing broken relievers I would probably even trade 2 relievers if the value in trades is there. I really like Vieira and still have hope for Ethan Small and Clayton Andrews, not to mention I think Tobias Myers would be a great candidate to have a huge boost in value changing from the rotation to bullpen. Not to mention adding another player or two in the mold of Bryse Wilson, Trevor Megill, and Hoby Milner

I like Turnbull, MadBum, Minor, Ross, and Duffy best out of that group but agree all of them could be interesting last chance type pitchers. If Woody ends up injured for a good portion of the year would it make sense to do a contract like Tyler Glasnow last year 2 years like 25 million, 5 for 2024 and 20 for 2025 (maybe an opt out for both sides somehow). Unless he is out all year it would be hard to non-tender him, but we wouldn't also want to pay him a full year salary for 10-15 starts and then lose him to free agency. If Woody is out for a while I would look at signing Luis Severino to a 1 year deal, he would be a pitcher with great stuff who could be had relatively cheaply (say 1/8 with incentives to 15) with some incentives and make a huge difference. Obviously he wasn't good last year but getting out of NY and getting with our pitching staff could get him back to that 1/2 style starter. He still throws upper 90's with 4 quality pitches and could even shift to the bullpen later in the year if he struggles a bit.

I could see a path where all of these guys could be top 100 prospects at this point next year, undoubtedly the best 11-15 prospects in my life time.

Would Jake Cronenworth be of interest to anyone? I feel like he is miscast at 1B and would make a solid long term 2B. The Pads could be a team to eat some of the long term (maybe just a couple million). He was a back to back 4 war player.

Garver would be mostly a DH and catch occasionally when Contreras needs a day. In all likelihood someone else will pay Hoskins more, my guess is he gets something like Conforto got last year 2/32 with an opt out. The more I look at it we probably don't add a free agent power bat. In all likihood it would be a trade. As you reference we don't spend on free agents and anyone decent will likely get paid well this offseason.

Black everyday at 3B or 1B would ok with me. I kind of like him in utility role next year best. My favorite scenerio is we get Coby Mayo (or a different young 3B) in a Burnes deal and keep Canha to play 1st. Black starts the 1st couple weeks in AAA to preserve control time. Then he plays 30-40 games at 1st, 30-40 games at 3rd, 30-40 DH, and a few in each the OF and 2B if needed. In this scenerio we trade Weimer and Chourio is full time LF and yeli DH. Black or Mayo end up being full time 3B/1B in 2025 (or Wilken if one falters).

I know this is a sore subject but where are we on Trevor Bauer. A video he put out with evidence made it seem the woman was out to get him. If we trade Burnes, Bauer could be an interesting 1 or 2 year high upside starter, maybe like 1/8 with incentives and some option structures. On top of it Milwaukee would be a low key place for him to step back in, assuming that his incident(s) weren't as bad as they were made out to be. Again this is only if he is exonerated on some level. On top of that Bauer is still a turd sandwich but could be an interesting fix into keeping up the rotation and trading Burnes or at least fixing half measures.

I like those ideas, I think we might have to give up a bit more for Grissom. Also I'd switch Jack Leiter for Brock Porter. I think Williams should get 2 top 100 prospect type players. I kind of like the idea of Williams to Atlanta for Grissom and on of their top pitching prospects. Williams has been the top reliever in the league over the past 4 years and there would be a ton of buyers. We should get way more than we got for Hader at least. Burnes to the Dodgers still makes the most sense in my mind, they have pitching prospects and a few nice young bats. They will have a need for an ace and Burnes would be perfect for them if they don't get Ohtani.