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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    This is what makes valuing prospects so difficult, I really like Ortiz and almost value him as high as Porter. I am sure the Rangers do to however the Rangers have on of the better young 1B in the league in Nate Lowe. I would jump at any Porter, Ortiz, and 3rd piece deal even if both are over a year away. I think a lot of where Burnes will go will ride on where Yamamoto, Snell, and Montgomery go. If say the Yankees get Yamamoto and AL East teams don't get a big starter I could see there being a lot of pressure in Boston/Balt./Toronto to add someone like Burnes. Maybe the Dodgers miss out and feel compelled to add Burnes. Odds are tough to gauge until those 3 sign then it should be clear who will be desperate and overpay for Corbin. For now I say Brewers=25%, Dodgers 15%, Giants 15 %, Rangers 15 %, O's 15%, Other 15%.
  2. jay87shot
    Does the recent Glasnow trade set a relative value on Burnes? Glasnow, Margot (4 million) for Pepiot and DeLuca Margot probably has no/negative trade value, I will say the 4 million paid wipes out he Margot part. Burnes will make $10 less, doesn't have injury issues, and a longer track record of success. That value should be worth a top 50-100 prospect. So a trade should net, a top 50-100 or better prospect, a borderline 100 prospect (Pepiot), and an interesting upper middle tier 3rd piece (DeLuca).
  3. jay87shot
    I like the depth of the Rangers prospects, they would be one of the teams I wouldn't need a top 50 prospect involved. Ortiz would be a great 1B prospect to get, Foscue and Harris would seem to be the style of hitter our leadership likes, Leiter, Rocker, White, Stephen, Curry, and Bratt are all solid prospect arms (to go with Porter). Sebastian Walcott is a hugely skilled 17 year old who played a few A+ games for whatever reason. A package of say Ortiz, Foscue, Leiter/White, and Stephan/Curry would be a huge get in my opinion even if there are no current top 100 prospects.
  4. jay87shot
    The Brewers aren't usually a team to trade away minor league resources and pay a guy a couple million to get sent to AAA (except for Huira and Lindblom). Signing Clarke and Ross (who could start) just makes for to many relievers, even leaving room for a couple taxi style pitchers we have to many. Odds are we trade relievers and Williams would be the most valuable and sought after reliever in a long time (probably more so than Hader).
  5. jay87shot
    I don't think there is evidence of it, however we have to be setting up a trade(s). I am sure Arnold did his due diligence and has offers set-up for Williams and Burnes and is just waiting for Yamamoto, Montgomery, Snell, Hader to sign and then leverage scarcity of the market for a little more. If there isn't a special Williams offer my guess is that we sell high on Milner, Wilson, and/or Payamps. If a guy like Clark got 2 semi interesting "older" prospects like Devanney and Brady, those 3 should bring back much more interesting packages.
  6. jay87shot
    Way to many relievers. I feel a Devin Williams trade coming. Williams, Payamps, Uribe, Megill, Milner, Wilson, Peguero, Vieira, Ross, Clarke, Small, Andrews, maybe Ashby or Junk and a few other decent options. That's at least 12-13 good options for 7-8 spots and there are still a few months to add. Could be a lot of trades.
  7. jay87shot
    Vaughn has been disappointing but did hit .258/.314/.429 with 21 HR and 80 rbi's. He is average at 1st but at 25 (26 next year) he still has some upside to be a middle of the order impact bat. With 3 years of control he has value but I wouldn't trade Mitchell or Weimer for him straight up.
  8. jay87shot
    I think a Willy Adames trade could turn into a 3 team deal easily. If we want a mlb ready player back and a team with excess OF talent wants him there could be a 3 team opportunity. A Burnes trade could also be a 3 team deal if we are looking for something specific that a team that really wants Burnes doesn't have. Say Adames to the Red Sox, OF Miguel Bleis to Rays, we get Jonathan Aranda Burnes to Mets, we get P Edward Cabrera and IF Luisangel Acuna, and Marlins C Kevin Parada I doubt we can piggyback onto a trade for one of the top not pitcher trades but maybe a Cease trade (I really doubt they trade Andrew Vaughn).
  9. jay87shot
    If he pitches well I'd say 40-50 innings in AA, then to AAA. Ideally he would get a September call up after 40-50 innings in AAA and work 20-30 innings in the bullpen and be ready to be in the rotation in 2025. I have always liked the idea of piggybacking a big arm with a softer tossing opposite arm. Maybe if the rotation is solid and Ashby, Gasser, and Carlos Rodriguez are good as well he could work a piggy back situation half way threw the year with a guy like Wade Miley. Misi starts throw 60-70 pitches and then Miley pitches threw to the 8th (or 9th if needed). That way you keep his work load down, guys will get 2 ab's against heat and be thrown of the slower stuff from Miley, and can sort of save the bullpen once a week.
  10. jay87shot
    I'd love Marte or Gorman but the problem with interdivision trades is that no one wants to give a top young player to a rival and have it blow up in their face. My thought would be to get a lower value bat from either. Luken Baker would be a great target. He crushed AAA but wasn't great in the bigs and is very blocked. Especially since the Cards want to extend Goldy. Baker for Houser or Tyrone Taylor with maybe a lower level prospect to sweeten the deal might work well. India would probably be the only guy the Reds would trade to us and I wouldn't give up anything significant for him. Maybe a prospect for prospect swap for a guy like Edwin Arroyo, Sal Stewart, or Cam Collier but we has some decent SS/3B prospects in the lower minors.
  11. jay87shot
    I feel like 6/113 is a massive overpay for Lee, especially tacking on 18ish million as a posting fee. At 25, I can see how his value is decent but he doesn't have notable power or speed (based on sb's). I would think he should hit and field ok but that alone isn't worth over 20 million for the risk of him flopping. To me it's a big risk to get a guy like Yoshida from the Red Sox.
  12. jay87shot
    I'd alter all 3 a bit but think all 3 are interesting. 1) Taylor and IF Patrick Dorrian for Jose Miranda, I like Farmer but for me there isn't much difference between him and Montesario/Miller. Miranda has some upside and could be a nice platoon at 1B or 3B. We add in a prospect like Dorrian because Miranda do have that upside. 2)Mitchell/Weimer and P Jansen Junk for Polanco and P Conner Priellip I wouldn't trade Mitchell or Wiemer for 1 year (maybe 2) of Polanco, by getting a high upside arm we insulate ourselves from giving up a high end talent for a rental. 3)Frelick for Brooks Lee I like Julien a lot but my guess is that both sides would be hesitant to trade guys both like. The Twins might give up Lee considering a future infield of Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis. For me the power, defense potential of Brooks Lee would be close to pry Sal away. I would still be pretty hesitant but Brooks Lee is a potential superstar where as Frelick is likely a yearly borderline all-star.
  13. jay87shot
    Good stuff, I would add some of those power hitting 1B/3B types. Never bad to add extra arms. Is there a reliable website that lists minor league free agents?
  14. jay87shot
    Yankees and Dodgers traded Jorbit Vivas and Victor Gonzalez for Trey Sweeney I like all 3 of those guys.
  15. jay87shot
    When Yamamoto, Snell, and Montgomery sign the trade offers will get better and more serious. I am sure Arnold was busy setting lots of connections. It usually seems like January is our busiest month.
  16. jay87shot
    If he gave up pitching he is worth less than being able to field. I am sure he would be a great RF or 1B but if he plays the field it would likely make it tough to pitch. Just the amount of throwing before the game and in between innings would throw off a pitching regiment.
  17. jay87shot
    How many championships do they need to win to justify the deal. I see Ohtani as a 10/300 hitter (as a DH only he is worth less than Judge and some of the other superstars. As a pitcher I would have a hard time giving a guy who is going to miss the year because of a second elbow injury over 100 million. Maybe add in 100 million for publicity/advertisment and other fringe benefits. Still puts it 200 million short.
  18. jay87shot
    Sorry my last post should start, i wouldn't trade Frelick, not I would trade. Forgot to edit.
  19. jay87shot
    I would pass unless he is a throw in for a Burnes or Williams trade that gets us a better prospect. In that case, I would still want the Pads to throw in some cash for the end of that contract. Without Cronenworth= Burnes for Snelling, Mazur, Pauley With Cronenworth= Burnes and Peguero for Robby Snelling, Jackson Merrill, and Cronenworth. For me getting Merrill would make this a go.
  20. jay87shot
    So Ohtani is going to make more than how many teams next year? It's sad that the Dodgers will be paying Ohtani about 6 whole years of the entire Brewers payroll. On top of that it sounds like a lot of the money is differed so they will probably still have money to get another top of the rotation arm or 2.
  21. jay87shot
    Any chance Wes Clarke could do double a double platoon and be the backup catcher and split 1st with Black and or Bauers? I really thought he would need a half year or so in AAA. I really like Clarke but he isn't quite the type of prospect to skip AAA (mostly because of lower BA).
  22. jay87shot
    I really like the idea of Black becoming a super utility guy who is like a 4th OF, plays 1B, 2B. 3B and DH's when no one needs a day off. I have loved Miguel Vargas as an option for us. He can play 3B, 2B, or 1B and has a middle of the order potential bat. It hasn't been mentioned but getting a SS that is mlb ready isn't a bad idea either. I still believe that Turang will be a quality bat but if not getting a SS prospect who could easily transition to 3B or 2B would make sense.
  23. jay87shot
    I wouldn't trade Sal. He is going to be a perfect leadoff hitter who can play plus defense at all three OF spots (gold glove in LF). Also he won't like cost crazy money to keep long term because he won't be hitting a lot of HR's. Weimer and Mitchell will have similar trade values and are more viotile to keep. I am hopeful we have LF Frelick batting 1, CF Chourio batting 2-3, and RF Weimer/Mitchell batting 3-5 for the next 10 years or so. I've said this since the Chourio signing. Our best path foward is trading Yeli.
  24. jay87shot
    I could see them getting 2 of Beiber, Cease, Glasnow if they really wanted. Marte and Lodolo for Cease India and Williamson for Beiber/Glasnow Cease, Beiber/Glasnow, Martinez, Greene, Abbott, Ashcraft is a crazy good rotation. There pen is solid and we know about the young bats. I could be a remarkable division if the Cubs add a couple of the top free agents, the Cards will be better with the starters they have gotten, and even the Pirates announced they would be adding payroll.
  25. jay87shot
    All those pitchers have control and some upside. I really like King, to me he is close to Freddy Peralta. King=Peralta, Thorpe=Gasser/Rodriguez, Brito and Vasquez=Houser circa 2020, Higi=Between Henry and Caratini It is possible the Pads got 2-5 starters, pairing them with Darvish and Musgrave should be a solid rotation. Especially with a couple of the young arms they have in their system.
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