jay87shot

I am pretty sure that sight uses a system that takes a player expected WAR×8 (or however many million 1 WAR is now days) then subtracts the players salary and multiples by years controlled or under contract. So if Burnes has 2, 6 WAR years that is worth 96 points, subtract 11 and say 15 for his next 2 years salary and you get 70ish. For prospects I would guess they go more by prospect rankings. However if Chorio averages 5 WAR a year for 6 years that is a 240 value. Take away the 60 or so million he would earn and that's 180ish. Then it probably would be a percentage of failure so 40% gets us around 72 which is relatively close to the sites evaluatations.

I like most of these idea, however if this went down I would use the extra money to sign a player like Jose Abreu or a solid pitcher to a 2/3 year deal. I think you could get about that value for Adames and Burnes but it might have to come in 2 seperate deals. I doubt the Dodgers would give up that much prospect value overall (although the Padres did for Soto).

I feel that our payroll will actually be down this year. Attendance was down over 10% and our front office was quoted as saying we were over-budget multiple times. I would guess that the starting payroll will be more in the 120-125 range. However, I could see Mark A. keeping the pocket book open 1 more year and going for it before ultimately deciding what to do with all those 2024 free agents.

I feel that our payroll will actually be down this year. Attendance was down over 10% and our front office was quoted as saying we were over-budget multiple times. I would guess that the starting payroll will be more in the 120-125 range. However, I could see Mark A. keeping the pocket book open 1 more year and going for it before ultimately deciding what to do with all those 2024 free agents.

Whoops, Grayson

Urias. .239/.335/.735. 110ops+ , +2 runs saved in 73 games at 3rd Urshela .286/.338/.767 121ops+, +4 runs saved in 136 games at 3rd. Both aren't great base runners. Urshela would bring a lot more consistency and have some potential to add a little to the power stats seeing that our field is a better hitters park.

Urshela was a 3.1 WAR last year. I would guess Turang, Frelich, Mitchell, and Ruiz/Weimer can be easily a 2+WAR players. They all play good defense and are plus/plus base runners. If they hit even .230 they should hit 2+ WAR. Also we would have Urias as out utility infielder as well to help of Turang struggles at 2nd.

I was disappointed with the offseason because we just kept all the old guys as the 10-15 spots on the bench. I would rather take a chance on a young guy than Serge, Wes, or Hill and then if none of those young guys show out there will be a few vets on the buy-out market who would be as valuable as those old guys. That said I'm going to say 56-26, with a chance 35% chance to make the finals. Especially if the secondary players Portis, Pat, Ingles, Reddick, etc can hit some shots.

I think we would just keep Taylor and the have Yeli at DH as insurance. Probably add a couple vet AAA bats similar to Dahl and Davis from last year. Maybe throw in Myles Straw and extend that previous trade.

How about this 3 team trade. We get Gio Urshela, the Twins get Amed Rosario, and the Guardians get Renfroe. I would guess that we and/or maybe the Twins might have to give up a little extra to even it out. Basically all 1 year contracts at 10ish million and each team swaps from a position of depth for a weaker position. We improve 3B and let our young guys play OF. Twins open up 3rd for Miranda and replace Correa. The Guardians have lots of MI depth and could put Kwan in CF, Gonzalez in LF, and Renfroe RF. Additionally some sweetener for Clev. since Rosario would probably has more value than the other 2.

I am not opposed to trading Willy if it means getting great value, however he was be far our best hitter last year (not consistent but best). If we trade Adames we need to make sure we are getting an experienced middle of the order bat somewhere. I love Vargas as well, however I would probably give him a chance at 3rd knowing that he could always move to 1st if need be.

To be honest, I have always disliked that website. Tyrone Taylor and Joey Weimer are basically the same value. If we could get a top 100 prospect for Taylor he would be gone in a second. Yelich has a negative 122, so we would have to give up like our top 12 prospects not named Chourio to get rid of Yeli for nothing. Also Chouio at 75 has more value than Burnes. Lastly Houser has more value than Lauer. I must have been thinking of a different catcher who started hot, my bad should have look. My point stands that he didn't really have a chance to wear down.

Catchers wear down, Jansen was unconscious to start the year got hurt and than played ok but not out of this world. Take out the 1st month and he is more of who is really should be. Look at Omar's 1st half in 2021, if he got hurt for a month+ at the all-star break he would have had amazing stats. Jansen never had to play more than a couple days in a row with the Jays catching depth. Jansen is a good player but not worth a top 100 prospect.

I agree the Burnes package is a bit light, maybe change the lotto prospect I proposed to someone like Kumar Rocker or Cole Winn? Basically I wanted to fill 3B and then C and improve our minors, I am sure you could swap that for a Mets, Blue Jays, or O's trade discussed elsewhere.

Agree, my scenario was under $120 million payroll by trading Hader then here trading Burnes, Tellez, Houser, and Urias we will have save around $35 million on top of 16 or so from Cutch and Wong. Honestly I was tempted to have us sign a better pitcher or another bat. If you are someone in favor of trading Renfroe (I am on the fence). That could be around $60 million the team has to play with from last years team. I don't think Clevinger will get more than 10. He has an ERA over 4 and his fastball and K are down from previously, I still like his chances at rebounding and I think he would be smart to come to our organization which has a good track record of leveling up our pitchers stuff.

Trade Burnes to Texas for Josh Jung, Owen White, Luisangel Acuna, Mitch Garver, and a lotto prospect Trade Houser for 2 mid-level prospects Trade Rowdy and Urias to Miami for Tanner Scott and Sixto Sanchez Trade Taylor for a prospect Sign Mike Clevinger 1/7.5 +incentives Sign Jose Abreu 2/40 (3rd option) 1)Yeli 2)Frelich 3)Abreu 4)Adames 5) Renfroe 6)Mitchell 7)Jung 8)Garver 9)Turang Ashby and Sanchez piggyback to limit innings to start the year. Williams, Scott, Bush, and Box as 7/8/9, Gott, Topa, Perdomo, Strezlecki, and more fight for last 2 pen spots C: Garver ($3.5M) 1B: Jose Abreu ($20M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.7M) 3B: Josh Jung ($0.7M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.50M) LF: Sal Frelich ($0.7M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11M) DH: Yelich ($22M) 4th OF: Estuery Ruiz ($0.7M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M) Utility: Minor league deal vet ($1M) Backup C: Caratini ($2M) SP1: Mike Clevinger ($7.5M) SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M) SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1M) RP: Peter Strezlecki ($0.7M) RP: Luis Perdomo ($1.00M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Tanner Scott ($2M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M) RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M) RP: Box ($2.25M) RP: Sixto Sanchez ($1M) Payroll is 11.19% under budget

So we have basically the same team? Also I would guess that Woody and Adames would both be close or over 20 a year, especially any non-arby years.

I feel like that would be an overpay for Jansen, he is solid but I would give up a top 100 prospect and one of our higher potential pitching prospects for 2 years of a slightly above average catcher with a career .223 hitter. Treinen would be nice but I doubt we would give a guy who only pitched 5 innings 10 million a year to be a set-up (someone else will).

1)Regression from hitters Narvaez, Taylor, Cain, even Rowdy and Adames hit like 40 points lower than last year. 2)Starting pitching injuries Not only did this hurt the starting rotation but then it hurts the bullpen as the pen is needing to pitch more innings from shorter starts. 3)Pig-headed front office/manager towards the offense I am going to lump not trading for a bat at the deadline and refusing to alter the lineup together. One quality middle of the order bat probably would have been enough to get the playoffs and I hated that Adames and Rowdy hit 2/3 most of the year despite low average and obp. numbers. Counsil should have road a more hot hand approach with the top/middle of the order while try to find a consistent 2/3/4/5 bat(s).

1)Regression from hitters Narvaez, Taylor, Cain, even Rowdy and Adames hit like 40 points lower than last year. 2)Starting pitching injuries Not only did this hurt the starting rotation but then it hurts the bullpen as the pen is needing to pitch more innings from shorter starts. 3)Pig-headed front office/manager towards the offense I am going to lump not trading for a bat at the deadline and refusing to alter the lineup together. One quality middle of the order bat probably would have been enough to get the playoffs and I hated that Adames and Rowdy hit 2/3 most of the year despite low average and obp. numbers. Counsil should have road a more hot hand approach with the top/middle of the order while try to find a consistent 2/3/4/5 bat(s).

I looked up some bad ones. Jake Arrieta to the Cubs was really bad James Shields for Tatis Jr. was bad until this year Chris Archer to the Pirates was really bad but Meadows, Baz, and Glasnow have had injury issues. Ryan Ludwig for Kluber and others was awful Us getting Yeli was really bad for a while, maybe not anymore. Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips is probably worse

Again I doubt we take on money. I wouldn't mind trying to get rid of a bunch of seemingly excess pieces for him. Tyrone Taylor, Gustave, and Hedbert Perez or Houser and 18 yo lotto ticket type prospect or 2. I wouldn't give up a high end prospect for him, but he will have a lot of value based on how many teams need a solid catcher.

That's like adding 80+ million to the payroll. From what I can guess, Mark A. and Stearns have been telling everyone that we were a decent amount over budget this year. Add in a bunch of arby raises and that the attendance was down 10-15% and would guess we will need to shave payroll down some more than expand it. Granted I would love all those guys expect Robertson and Swanson.

Ok, so this is crazy and I would never do it but what what if we just went nuts and traded everyone for mlb ready players or close to it. Sorry this has just been eating at me the past day and I wanted to see how stacked we could be if the entire front office went off the rail. Burnes to Jays for Gabrial Moreno, Ricky Tiedman, Hayden Juenger, throw in piece Woodruff to Rangers for Josh Jung, Owen White, and Cole Winn Adames to Dodgers for Miguel Vargas, Ryan Pepiot, Jacob Amaya Lauer to Mets for Mark Vientos and Jose Butto Williams to Atl for Vaughn Grissom and Freddy Tarnok Rowdy to Marlins for Tanner Scott Houser to Diamondbacks for Seth Beer and Bryce Jarvis Renfroe to Angels for Ben Joyce Urias to Red Sox for Matthew Lugo Throw in Caritini and Taylor in to other deals or get young 18 yo lotto ticket prospect for each. Sign Verlander 2/90 and Corey Knebel and Zach Britton 1/5 each with incentives and team option year 2. C)Moreno, Feliciano/Severino 1B)Vargas/Vientos 2B)Grissom SS)Turang 3B)Baty/Vargas OF)Frelich, Ruiz, Mitchell, Ruiz DH) Yeli (not trading) Utl) Amaya, eventually Lugo Rotation 1)Verlander 2)Peralta 3)Ashby/Own White 4)Pepiot/Tiedman (I know Tiedman is probably 1/2 year away) 5) 2 of Butto, Tarnok, Winn, Juenger, Small, Gasser, Jarvis (probably not Jarvis) I would piggy back the 3/4/5 spots for the first 1/2 of the year to save young arms and undoubtably 3 of the 9 would seperate and a few would end up in the pen as high leverage relievers. Pen) Bush, Knebel, Britton, Box, Scott, Cousins, Milner, Strezlecki, Perdomo, eventually Joyce and some of the AAA starters. I am sure that would be way to many pitchers so maybe even trade a reliever or two. That would be a pretty amazing upside team, like 6 potential top of the rotation arms and a lineup full of 5 WAR potential guys with some depth to backup a couple failures. Sorry had to do it.

Here are some other thoughts on potential Burnes deals To Atlanta for William Contreras/Travis D'Arnaud and Vauhgn Grissom/Kyle Muller To Toronto for Ricky Tiedeman, Gabriel Moreno or Danny Jansen and a higher prospect To Red Sox for Rafeal Devers, Bryan Mata, and Blaze Jordan To Twins for Jose Miranda and Brooks Lee To Phillies for Andrew Painter and Alec Bohm/Griff McGeary To the Astros for Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz, 2 better pieces To the Mariners for Matt Brash and Emerson Hancock To the Yankees for Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells To Angels for Reid Detmers, Jared Walsh, and Chase Silseth That's not mention the Rangers, O's, Dodgers, and Mets. Also I would expect that we would get at least 4 pieces so all of these packages would need a few mid-tier prospects or better depending on the strength of package. Maybe as discussed we would need to throw in a sweetener as well in a couple deals as well. The point is a Burnes or Woody bidding war could be nuts.