jay87shot

The Mariners just gave up Erik Swanson and a lower rated prospect for Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez and Hunter Renfrow are extremely similar players. I would definitely trade Renfroe for a similar package, an 8th inning reliever with like 3 years of control and a projectable rising prospect.

Danny Duffy and Wade Miley would be interesting if healthy. Both would be inexpensive coming of injury and have been very good in past years. I also wouldn't mind Corey Kluber or Nick Martinez if the price is low-ish. From the article I like Ross Stripling a bunch as well.

No to Longo, he would be a big downgrade from Urais. Turner is the only fa that makes a little sense at 3B, and I wouldn't pay him much more than 10 mill (which he will likely get more). I know some like Drury but I don't really see the upgrade. Any upgrade at 3rd imo come via a trade, likely for a prospect like Baty, Jung, Vargas, or Mead.

To light, Kirby would be a start (I am sure the M's would put Hancock instead). Kelenic makes no sense with us having 4 high end OF prospects ready. Bryce Miller and Prelander Berreo are exciting arms in the M's system. Hancock and Harry Ford are the only high end prospects in there system and we likely wouldn't have interest in Ford.

Not to surprising, our management will likely talk about everyone since seemingly our entire team has 2 years of control and salaries are getting borderline. I know we can't afford Devers long term but any chance we could trade for him use him for the year and let him walk (getting a pick back or trade at deadline)? I would guess we would need to give up 2 decent pieces, would Lauer, Wong, and Tyler Black get close?

I want to make it clear I would not trade Devin for anything less than an overpay. I always said with Hader that even though a top closer is worth 2-3 WAR the situation and dire consequence really make their impact double in terms of importance (WAR). That being I would rather get 3 or 4 guys who can cumulatively make a bigger impact. The Dodgers definitely have a lot of upper minor players who have a high floor and a need for a big time closer.

What about the idea of trading Devin Williams? It is probably to early but I would put him in the Hader boat from like 2 off-season's ago. If someone gives us a big package with like 3 really good pieces I'd send him out and try and find ways strengthen the pen. Say the Dodgers offered a package like we have been looking at for Willy Adames of Vargas, Pepiot, and a 3rd solid piece (say a reliever like Caleb Ferguson). Would we decline that? That is a likely solid starting pitcher and 1B/3B for 5-6 years and another piece that would have a good chance to contribute.

Yeah, I have said this a bunch but Jansen isn't worth anything more than Tyler Black and a lower ranked prospect at best.

I agree with the idea that Willy should be a great at 3rd defensively, but ultimately this all comes down to Turang. The organization should know well enough if he is going to handle 2B and transition to SS or just take over right away. I think from Willy perspective SS would be better, he has a chance(s) to win a gold glove at SS but I doubt at 3rd he would win one over Arenado or Hayes. That being said I don't think Willy would be one to make a big stink if it was best for the team.

I agree with the idea that Willy should be a great at 3rd defensively, but ultimately this all comes down to Turang. The organization should know well enough if he is going to handle 2B and transition to SS or just take over right away. I think from Willy perspective SS would be better, he has a chance(s) to win a gold glove at SS but I doubt at 3rd he would win one over Arenado or Hayes. That being said I don't think Willy would be one to make a big stink if it was best for the team.

I would pass on Manny, if he was a free agent and we could get a minor league deal I would say yes in a heartbeat. I just wouldn't give up anything for him. D'Arnaud would be interesting, I wouldn't give up a major prospect (top 8 or so). I like the Renfroe idea, maybe Lauer would work as well. Contreras and one of Vaughn Grissom or Kyle Muller, would be the start of a good Woody or Burnes package. I doubt the Braves would do something like Lauer, Mitchell, and a lesser piece for Contreras but that would be optimal in my book.

I would pass on Manny, if he was a free agent and we could get a minor league deal I would say yes in a heartbeat. I just wouldn't give up anything for him. D'Arnaud would be interesting, I wouldn't give up a major prospect (top 8 or so). I like the Renfroe idea, maybe Lauer would work as well. Contreras and one of Vaughn Grissom or Kyle Muller, would be the start of a good Woody or Burnes package. I doubt the Braves would do something like Lauer, Mitchell, and a lesser piece for Contreras but that would be optimal in my book.

1) Kikucki has great stuff and our staff has had success with guys tweeking small mechanics, grips, or adding a pitch and making a difference. I just used Ray as a reference as a guy who had the stuff and struggled but something small changed his results. I am sure you could put in a top 10 prospect in the Jays system instead and then sign a pitcher. I didn't put it in the numbers but I am sure we could get the Jays to pay off some of his 2/24 to make it more favorable since he has a career 5 era. 2) Diaz is awful at 3rd but has a +2 drs in over 900 innings at 1st in his career. The bat would bring a ton of consistency to the team and play from 2-5 in the lineup. Diaz was worth 3.5 WAR last year and thats with -5 drs at 3rd, if he would continue average work at 1st that is a huge improvement over Rowdy. I get Rowdy should get some pick me up with the shift but I doubt it's 3 wins worth. 3) I really meant any higher end lefty reliever, Matt Moore, Taylor Rogers, Will Smith, Andrew Chafin, Brad Hand, Aroldis Chapman and maybe some righties with good splits who could fit the 4-8 million price range on a 1 or 2 year deal. I just picked a younger Marlins pitchers, I like Sanchez's upside but acknowledge there is a large risk. I am sure you could switch in a different starter with a little adjustment. Maybe even a reliever like Tanner Scott would work.

1)Pickup Wong Option 2)Extend Woody (6/115, 11,16, 4 at 22) 3)Trade Burnes to Tor for Moreno, Tiedmann, Yusei Kikuchi, Tanner Morris, and lotto type piece 4)Trade Adames to Dodgers Vargas, Pepiot, Emmett Sheehan 5)Trade Rowdy for Sixto Sanchez 5)Trade Yandy Diaz for Estuery Ruiz, Justin Jarvis, a PTBNL (mid level) 6)Trade Houser to Ari for Seth Beer and Bryce Jarvis 7)Keston to Detriot for a prospect 8)Sign an experienced lefty pen option Britton 1/6 with incentives for games pitched that goes to 1/10. Start with a 6 man rotation with Pepiot, Ashby, and Sanchez piggybacking 3 spots. If things go well end with a 5 man and make the odd man/men out high caliber relief pitchers. Tiedmann (Gasser/Sheehan) could be ready at some point too making lots of end of the year high end arms and depth. I feel there is a Robbie Ray type jump possible in Kikuchi if he can hone in on accuracy and cut the long ball. In this case our pitching team has done well and would reap some value (we could even get Toronto to eat a little of his salary). Diaz, Vargas, and Urias split 1B/3B, I put Diaz at 1st and Vargas at 3rd because Diaz is a slightly below average 3B to give the young guy a shot. Urias and Taylor get plenty of ab's as key reserves. Also Yeli can step in and play OF occasionally. We also would have a bunch of money and prospect capitol to make a big move at the deadline if need be. I get that 5 rookies in everyday positions isn't reasonable or likely but with an experienced bench I think it could work C: Moreno ($0.7M) 1B: Yandy Diaz ($6M) 2B: Kolton Wong ($8M) 3B: Miguel Vargas ($0.7M) SS: Brice Turang ($0.7M) LF: Sal Frelich ($.7M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M) DH: Christian Yelich ($22M) Bench OF: Tyrone Taylor ($2M) Utility: Luis Urias ($4.5M) Utility: Brousseau ($1M) Backup C: Caratini ($2.8M) SP1: Woodruff ($11M) SP2: Yusei Kikuchi ($12M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.20M) SP5: Pepiot ($0.7M) CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M) RP: Strezlecki ($0.7M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Brad Boxberger ($3.00M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.10M) RP: Zach Britton ($6M) RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.00M) RP: Sanchez ($0.7M) Payroll is 14.54% under budget

I don't mind the 2 years until FA to much, I think Diaz wouldn't be crazy expensive in trade value and could be a guy that if he plays solid an extension wouldn't be to overbearing.

I don't mind the 2 years until FA to much, I think Diaz wouldn't be crazy expensive in trade value and could be a guy that if he plays solid an extension wouldn't be to overbearing.

Willy is a good SS, last year he was worth +9 runs, for the rest of his career he has been around slightly above average. The case would be that if Turang is really a plus defender at SS, we wouldn't lose anything defensively and then we would improve 3rd tremendously by putting Adames there. When we potentially lose Adames it would be an easier transition because Turang wouldn't have to move.

Willy is a good SS, last year he was worth +9 runs, for the rest of his career he has been around slightly above average. The case would be that if Turang is really a plus defender at SS, we wouldn't lose anything defensively and then we would improve 3rd tremendously by putting Adames there. When we potentially lose Adames it would be an easier transition because Turang wouldn't have to move.

Good article, I have been thinking Diaz but Mead would be interesting. I am sure the Ray's could be in on Woodruff or Burnes but I doubt there would be an extension. I know this is trades but Adames could always be an option to if they feel like Turang is a better option at SS than second and want to keep Wong.

Good article, I have been thinking Diaz but Mead would be interesting. I am sure the Ray's could be in on Woodruff or Burnes but I doubt there would be an extension. I know this is trades but Adames could always be an option to if they feel like Turang is a better option at SS than second and want to keep Wong.

So I am trying to look at the offseason a little differently and figure out how to get this team to 45+ WAR (we were 34.1 last year). To do that every position player and starter need to average about 3 WAR and then the DH, bench, and bullpen would be at 6 total. Obviously that could be shifted some and it is hard to figure out some rookie WAR potential. Last year the every players were close to a 3 WAR per and the pitching ended up way behind. Starters are 8.0 (not including Alexander, 7.2 with Alexander) and the pen was around 2 total (5.1 for near regulars, -3.1 for short term/trade guys and Gott). This is going to make my predictions lean more towards pitching improvement than the past. 1)Keep Wong (I really want to have the money but WAR says he is a really good value). If he put up his usual high marks at 2nd he could have been a near 5 WAR player in only 115 starts. 2)Replace 1st and catcher 3) Add more high quality arms 4)Get what you can for extra pieces I am going to do a second edition of my 2023 blueprint with the reworked ideas.

Pretty sure you can trade this years picks in the offseason at some point, I feel like they switched the rule in the past couple years.

I like most of your thinking but Devers will cost more than Urias and some throw in prospects. For 1 year of Devers I wouldn't give up a package that would need a couple solid pieces. I agree on Murphy, he would be great but giving up 3 of our top 10 prospects is a bit strong for a .236 career hitter.

Stearns loves to wait in free agency for discounted vets. What about these guys as later offseason additions at potentially discounted prices. What are thoughts on JD Martinez? I know everyone (myself included) wants Yeli to DH. What if JD has a low market and like 1/8-12 million offers. If Yeli takes to 1st maybe Yeli at 1st and JD to DH. Throw in Michael Brantley and maybe Matt Carpenter into the same discussion. Josh Bell could be an interesting free agent as well, his second half is going to scare a bunch of people off. Not that he fits but Michael Conforto will likely get a 1 year prove it deal and I could see him taking a while to sign. Joc Pederson would probably fit into the we don't need an OF, but this guy could be a middle of the order bat. Possibly Cody Bellinger as well if he isn't tendered.

I was just looking at improving 3rd and thought Urshela would make sense. The 3 team idea is that the Twins could use help at SS until Royce Lewis is healthy and the Guardians need hitting. Hunter on the Guardians would be similar to him here, his bat is nice but there are young guys. Also Cleveland could use him a bunch at DH.