1. Teheran, bless his heart, is not a good pitcher. He has bad velo, bad spin, doesn't miss bats. Maybe the Brewers keep him around for a few turns just to avoid losing him in case of re-injury but he's not an actual solution.
2. I know it's unpopular around here but I've basically written off the Cardinals. They're reeling again and are 11 games under .500. They'd have to play at a 100 win pace through the end of the season just to get enough wins to compete for the postseason (my threshold for that is 87-ish wins). I thought the Cubs would be better than they have been, they're basically out of it. The Reds have shown flashes of competency but I don't find them threatening... maybe if Elly absolutely goes off, that changes my mind a bit.
That leaves the Pirates. I don't really believe in them but they just keep hanging around. That makes them the biggest threat by default.