Brewcrew82

Contreras isn't coming to Milwaukee. Nor would I want him to.

Yeah, there's no point to the Brewers acquiring Buehler as he's currently on the mend from TJ surgery, will become a FA at the same time as Burnes, and has shown diminished skills recently. This is a straight-up rebuild, no doubt about it. Which conflicts with every statement Stearns has made.

No way the 2022 version of Ruiz, AKA one of the best players in the minors, doesn't beat out Lutz, Ray, and even pre-2019 Trent Grisham. But then again, you see him as nothing more than a "lottery ticket" so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

The Ol' Philly Special on defense...

We do need a World Series with Bryce Harper in it.

All right, are we rooting for the Padres due to our boy Josh and their World Series drought (which is the same as ours) or the Phillies and their high-powered lineup?

I think the Garrett Stubbs comparison for Quero is a little over the top as he's still very young and filling out. Though, Stubbs did put up really good numbers as JT. Realmuto's backup this season. I'm very excited for him and think he's set to rocket up prospect lists in short order as his defense is incredible. Uribe I think might be able to help the big league club next season. Could turn out to be our Emmanuel Clase, if his control continues to improve. Shame he was injured pretty much the whole year.

Yeah, I just don't know if the value is there. Wouldn't bring much more power than Urias either considering Urias has hit more homers in a single season than Urshela. And Urias has more team control than Urshela. Granted, Urias isn't the one being traded and could be moved to 2B, but then you're limiting Turang's playing time. I think we can probably make better use of our resources. Renfroe may be needed to guard against the inevitable growing pains from our rookie OFs.

It's not really an improvement at 3B considering Urias also put up a 3.1 bWAR this season....Also, Renfroe isn't really preventing our young outfielders from getting playing time. They're going to want Yelich to get more at-bats at DH as his defense is hurting his value, which leaves LF and CF open for Frelick, Mitchell, and co. If anything, Renfroe provides valuable insurance in the OF against the inevitable rookie growing pains.

Again, why would the Brewers sign Benintendi, when A) he would almost certainly cost more than Renfroe who you're non-tendering and B) when they have Frelick who is basically a cheaper, faster version of him. Frelick in RF, as you have it, doesn't work either as his arm is mediocre. You say Suter can make a spot-start, but he hasn't done so in almost two years. He's the definition of a low-leverage, replacement-level reliever (-0.2 fWAR) who the Brewers could replace internally at a fraction of the $3 million cost. For someone who wants to create payroll flexibility, to the extent that he is determined to non-tender Renfroe, that is completely non-sensical. Moreover, his age and underlying numbers from this past season indicate (4.40 FIP) that he is due to suffer further decline. As for Vasquez and Caratini, their value was nearly identical by fWAR, with Vasquez just barely edging out Caratini. And their underlying numbers were also virtually identical. Caratini was slightly better at framing per baseball savant, while Vasquez was slightly better per fangraphs. Definitely doesn't justify a $5.0 Mil. difference in their salaries. Feliciano is not going to be the back-up C. Your back-up catcher actually has to be respectable defensively. Feliciano is nowhere near respectable defensively ATM.

Not to mention, if you hold onto him after a season in which he posted an ERA well over 5 and with a half-season less of control, you're likely getting even less in return. No guarantee that we make the playoffs with Hader.

I highlighted this in my updated payroll blueprint, but I think Adames to the Dodgers for Vargas and Pepiot makes a lot of sense for both sides. For the Brewers, it finally provides you with your 1B of the future, and a high contact one at that, while Pepiot gives Stearns the increased pitching depth that he talked about in his season-ending press conference. Turang takes over at SS for Adames, which is his natural position. For the Dodgers, they are substituting what they paid for Turner over the last two years with Adames' last two years of arbitration, and for similar production. I likewise think they're going to be hesitant to dip into the elite FA SS market, including Turner, with all of the other holes they will have to address on their roster, especially on the pitching side of things. I think their main focus is going to be on the FA contingent of DeGrom, Rodon, Verlander, Diaz, and Judge. They need ace postseason pitchers/relievers and a big outfield bat to pair with Betts.

FWIW, I don't see Vargas as a regular third-baseman. I think he's primarily a first baseman, where he's blocked by Freeman.

We can argue about Houser and Hiura to the A's all day long. Fact is, that trade isn't a central element of my plan. If it came down to it, we could just go ahead and trade them to a different non-contending team for a reliever and a utility player. I will note that the A's still need to field a ballclub at the MLB level and that all of their moves aren't going to exclusively be acquiring minor league talent. Houser is an above average starting pitcher that they have room to feature at the big-league level. Same with Hiura. They have the ability to give him the playing time that we simply don't have against RHP. You emphasize that neither would be around when the A's field their next competitive team, well, doesn't the same logic apply to Puk and Kemp, given how weak the A's currently are on talent at the MLB and minor-league levels? The upside is that, if Houser and Hiura produce in their roles, they can be used to net more prospect capital. It's a risk that a rebuilding team like the A's can afford to take for barely over $1 million dollars. As for Kemp, I was more focused on matching salaries with Houser and acquiring a left-handed bench bat to replace Peterson. I'm sure the Brewers would attempt to get him to consider increasing his positional flexibility to SS and 3B as the price of playing for a contender. Meanwhile, with respect to the Dodgers, they do have significant payroll flexibility this offseason. But, again, they have decidedly more holes on their roster right now than they are accustomed to having, especially on the pitching side of things. They WILL NOT be able to resolve all of them in the FA market. Some will have to be addressed via trade. My assumption, based in part on the outcome of the Padres series, is that they will be heavily invested in the elite starter and reliever FA market (DeGrom, Rodon, Kershaw, Diaz, etc.) as well as the OF market (Judge?). Which could make them particularly open to acquiring a SS like Adames for a reduced cost similar to what they were paying Trea Turner over the past year and a half. Especially when the production gap btw. Adames and the elite FA SS is relatively small. They would have to part with some prospects, but Vargas is looking like he's blocked by Freeman and Pepiot is overshadowed by Stone and Miller. It's a deal that could end up making perfect sense for both sides. Certainly, a heck of a lot more sense than non-tendering Renfroe, while signing Benintendi for a greater cost and retaining Suter and Houser.

I wanted to strike the best balance between going for it next season and optimizing our future, which seems to be the direction Stearns. and co. are likely to take. This roster strikes that balance, imo. Gives them one year to attempt to extend Burnes/Woodruff, while eliminating Adames as an extension candidate. I love the guy, but his profile is simply too risky in light of the Yelich deal.

Yes, the Dodgers are well into the luxury tax, but the further you venture into it, the greater the penalties are. Which is why it acts as a de-facto salary "cap". The Dodgers have multiple holes that they need to address this offseason, particularly on the pitching side of things. Thus, they could easily prefer a lower-cost option at SS such as Adames who already produces on a level that is similar to those FAs. They would essentially be replacing Turner's salary over the past two years with Adames over the next two years, which would then enable them to use their resources t'o attack the pitching market (i.e., DeGrom, Rodon, Diaz, etc.). Meanwhile, Vargas is looking more and more like a first-baseman, where he is blocked for the foreseeable future by Freeman. I wouldn't say that Houser and Hiura "don't make any sense" for Oakland. Kemp and Houser is essentially a salary swap and provides them with an above average starting pitching option that they can eventually flip to a contender. I think Houser would perform very well in that ballpark. As for Hiura and Puk, Hiura does cost slightly more and has one less year of control, but that is roughly offset by the fact that Hiura is a position player and Puk is strictly a reliever. Oakland could be very tempted to see what Hiura can do in regular playing time, which, unlike the Brewers, they can provide, and the possibility of flipping him for prospects. Yes, Oakland would be paying about $1.3 million more, but they certainly have the payroll flexibility to take that chance, when Puk isn't likely to play a role on their next contender anyways. Regardless, it certainly makes a heck of a lot more sense than the Brewers non-tendering Renfroe, keeping Suter and Houser, and then going out and signing Benintendi for even more than Renfroe and despite the presence of 4 MLB-ready outfielders.

Because he has a superiority complex and thinks he is always right, regardless of his lack of complete information. He doesn't want to understand. To the normal reader, however, what you and I are describing is perfectly reasonable. Independent validation of data is one of the cornerstones of effective analysis.

No one contests that the deal backfired spectacularly as it pertains to this season. Though, I will note, from Stearns' perspective, that Rogers was almost as good as Hader since 2018. Yes, he was struggling a bit at the time of the trade, but so was Hader. Hard to foresee how a guy who has been so HR averse over the course of his career (including the first half of this season), would start serving them up like ice cream on a hot summer's day. Even then, Rogers still outperformed Hader post-deadline. Where the trade really hurt was its impact on team chemistry, as evidenced by the comments from Devin and Lauer. No coincidence that we played some of our worst ball in the immediate aftermath of the trade. Where people diverge, however, is the notion that the trade is ALREADY a huge failure that should cost Stearns and Counsell their jobs. Hader, while one of the best closers in the game, had limited value as a player with only 1.5 remaining years of team control, and who was growing more expensive by the year. While we may personally feel that he should be worth more as a Hall of Fame-level talent, his value is only as good as the market is willing to pay. And that same market was only willing to give us Andujar and Frazier back in the offseason of 2020 when Hader had 4 full years of control and was at the zenith of his powers. Really, to accurately judge the trade, we need to compare Hader's value over the last 1.5 years of team control with that which we have received/will receive from Rogers, Gasser, and Ruiz (the Lamet thing is a whole different discussion). As of right now, the trade is essentially "even", with Rogers "outproducing" Hader in WAR by .5 (they were both in negative WAR territory), but with Hader returning to form recently and powering a Padres playoff run. Now, Rogers becomes a free agent and the comparison turns to Hader, with one year of control, and Ruiz and Gasser, each with six years of control. If Hader's performance in September and October is indicative of a return to dominance going forward, then we can probably pencil him for a WAR next season of around 3.0. This essentially means that all that has to happen going forward for the scales to tip back in our favor is for Ruiz and/or Gasser to become steady to key contributors over the course of their tenure with the Brewers, or for them to be traded for such players. Considering both of their respective performances in the high minors this season and their pedigrees, this seems to be a very realistic scenario. Which is why you have people like me saying that we need to wait before we can fully adjudge the trade and pursue Stearns and co. at the stakes and with pitchforks.

Devin Williams??? Guy has a transcendent changeup and has been better than Hader since 2020. Unless you're just referring specifically to Hader, in which, yes, I agree.

Joel Stave didn't have anywhere near the arm talent of Graham Mertz, which is why Mertz was so highly rated in the first place. He also had a much better team around him, and we largely won games in spite of him.

Can't wait for Thursday. Need Giannis to restore my sanity after watching the Badgers and Packers this weekend. Though, I would probably expect a loss in Philly without Middleton and Pat.

After further consideration, I've decided to swap Mitchell and Wiemer in the Jansen trade. We're going to need a right-fielder after Renfroe departs next offseason and Wiemer is by far the best candidate in our system. Sets you up for a Frelick-Chourio-Wiemer outfield of the future. That might bring us a World Series. Mitchell allows the Jays to start to phase Springer out of CF.

Yeah, I like the trade as it enables us to become more contact-oriented, upgrade our pitching depth, and focus on resigning Burnes/Woodruff. I love Adames, but I don't think I want to take the risk of extending him after Yelich. Burnes/Woodruff are more sure things imo. Very hard to develop front-line starting pitchers.

Power doesn't need to come with swing and miss. For example, Rowdy and Jansen both have big power, but strikeout less than league average. But you can't strike out as much as the Brewers did this season and consistently win games. It's no coincidence that all 8 division series teams combined for the top 8 spots in adjusted strikeout rate. This lineup helps move us in a more contact oriented direction, which will hopefully lead to more consistent offense.

It hit him in the hands. He's gotta make the catch and hang on if he doesn't get interfered with. Would have been a first down.