I view it as a 4 team race between Mil, CHC, STL, and CIN with any team having a reasonable shot to take it based on how several factors play out. If I had a gun to my head I would probably still pick the Brewers, but I wouldn't feel great about it.
I do strongly disagree with the prognostications that put the Cardinals ahead of.the pack. Their rotation will be improved, but the additions that they made aren't as needle moving as people think. And Goldschmidt and Arenado are another year older. It will take big leaps from their young hitters such as Walker, Gorman, etc.
Pirates are behind the pack, but I wouldn't totally rule them out. They've got some nice young talent.