Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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Depends. Montgomery is reportedly the one that's more set on receiving a long-term deal. He would almost certainly not be getting that from the Brewers.
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I get being down on the rotation compared to last year, but this is insanity. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10111890-tier-rankings-for-all-30-mlb-teams-entering-2024-season
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Defense really letting Ashby down.
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Anyone who watched Ashby at the end of last year can realize this is an improvement. He's getting closer. I'll be interested in seeing where he is at the end of ST.
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I think they want to start OD with a Yelich-Chourio-Mitchell alignment, with Sal at 2nd or 3rd. But whether it's maintained throughout the season is a different question.
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I personally am not (and I suspect MA and the brass aren't either) comfortable with any sort of major long term commitment to Snell and/or Montgomery. Such as what happened with Lohse and Garza and partly contributed to our 2015 rebuild. However, if there's a shorter term/pillow deal with a large AAV to be had, you absolutely go for it no questions asked.
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How am I putting words in your mouth? You're the one that initially said our rotation would be lucky to be better than bottom 10, and then when presented with the projections indicating a baseline expectation otherwise are like, "projections suck". Which is for all intents and purposes saying your opinion of our rotation is more reliable. No they're not perfect (this is statistically impossible btw), but they're by far the best of anything else that's out there. There's a reason why teams use them. Interestingly, what you want them to do, namely, account for random variance, would actually make them less accurate. I recommend these articles for a detailed explanation. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-imperfect-pursuit-of-a-perfect-baseball-forecast/ https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/mlbdk2k15_projectionstalk/how-fantasy-baseball-projections-calculated-how-best-use-them
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Exhibit A of why we should take ST results with a grain of salt. Junis almost exclusively threw fastballs today and barely went to his slider, which he threw more than 60% of the time last year.
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ST mostly meaningless, but noteworthy the pitchers those 3 hits came off of. Webb (x2), Rogers. Those are tough ABs for a 19 year old, even in the spring.
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And your "eye test" is significantly more reliable?
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Pitching sucks for sure. Devin Williams can't even get through an inning. What a bum!
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They're at least based on objective evidence compared to that CBS writer's completely subjective list. Projections like that aren't supposed to predict outliers, which is what you're talking about.
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Brewers Still In the Market For Rotation Depth?
Brewcrew82 replied to wiguy94's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Clevinger's xFIP from last year is a little scary. That said, he's a guy who's pretty much always solidly outperformed his peripherals. Doesn't K as many guys as he used to, but velo is still there and control is solid. I'd take him on a 1 year deal or something. Lorenzen I'd have less interest in. Last year was pretty much a career year in terms of health. And he's got the same peripherals, but without the history of overperformance of Clevinger. -
This is probably better to look at.... https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP
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His peripherals were solid. He was the victim of bad luck. But he's not that pitcher right now, so we'll see.
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He's coming off injury and is just getting velocity back. Gonna take time.
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Forgettable day at the plate for Chourio and Black. Good thing they have time and youth on their side! Especially in Chourio's case.
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Joey Ortiz bomb! I'll say it again, but I think he can give us Jeremy Pena value. With a little less power, but a little more contact.
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I think we're close to our first Chourio homer of the spring. He just barreled his last flyball and went deep to right the one before. Just getting a little too much air on them right now. Love the opposite field oriented approach. And the lightning quick bat speed.
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Man if he can stick as a starter we may have gotten ourselves 6 more seasons of ace pitching for 1 year of an ace. Plus an Adames replacement and a 1st round draft pick!
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Quero prospect trade
Brewcrew82 replied to Scooterfletcher's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Quero is only 21 and evaluators have already labeled him the best defensive catcher in the minors. Defense gives you a major league floor on its own. Add to that elite for age EV and solid contact numbers and you've got a potential star. Catcher prospects are more hit or miss for sure, but Quero is as safe as it really gets for a 21 year old. And an extension gets you his prime years at a reduced cost. -
Frelick isn't a bopper, but he has enough power to be around a 2-3 win player on average (which he was on pace to do last year). Lingering thumb injury really sapped him of his power last year and his ability to turn on inside pitches as he had done successfully in the minors. With Mitchell and Wiemer, it's are they going to be able to make enough contact for the other parts of their game to even matter? Mitchell has an additional concern with his ability to elevate the baseball... Obviously you have to give those guys opportunities on the chance they do figure it out, but I think Frelick will prove the best value in the OF at the end of the day. Not a star, but a well above average MLB player.
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Quero's arm is as advertised.
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Difference is I think Frelick can actually hit in the bigs and I'm very much skeptical of the other two. Still a lot of time, but I think the team might eventually be best served by just riding with a Yelich-Chourio-Frelick OF.
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What a catch by Sal to rob Trout. I honestly don't think you can take him out of the OF.
