UpandIn

Sure...they have 5 more that are...reasonably easy or games we should be expected to win, but then Cleveland twice in 5 games. That's gonna be a good test for this Bucks team. They have seemingly built a team that's designed to play the Bucks. Mostly by accident as I don't think they were thinking that when they traded for Allen and Mobley was kinda the obvious pick, but now they've got two 7 footers and Mobley is an agile defender who can come out and meet Giannis at the FT line instead of playing back on his heels with his foot speed. Allen can sit back and play the Lopez role. They have guys who can score it in bunches in Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Problem is, nothing on the Wing. They had the 5th pick in a 3 player draft, but still...you'd think they'd come away with a player with SOME value(Saddiq Bey was in that draft and would fit that team like a glove). I feel good with Jrue and Carter defending Garland and Mitchell and I don't know WHO the hell is gonna defense Ingles, much less Middleton when they get healthy. But exciting young team. I could see that being a game to keep a 13 game winning streak alive vs 12-2 Cleveland team. Good early season game.

Ok, I don't wanna nitpick this too much...because I get your point and Buxton is a FREAK talent when healthy, but I'm looking at it more like the flaws in their game and their peak and impact on their game. deGrom is pretty much the perfect pitcher when he's healthy...kinda like Trout is just about the perfect player when HE'S healthy. And remember, he has a degenerative back problem that's been ailing him. And we've never seen a full season of Buxton. We've seen several full seasons from deGrom, including back to back Cy Young's and one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory. Buxton is a guy who's value comes largely from his defense and...you can get him out. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton break out and have a monster, MVP type season, but I'm not really counting on it. deGrom is the odds on favorite to win the Cy Young next year regardless what league he ends up in. BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1 Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). Kodai Senga 3/72 That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. Eovaldi 4/90 Chris Bassitt 4/74 Taillon -4/70 Zach Efflin 3/36 Now...hypothetically, lets say we traded both Woody and Burnes. I'd be out on Rodon because...why spend that money when you could have just signed one of those two(though you would get massive value back in prospects). That's actually a pretty reasonable price for Rodon, just...don't see the point. The two guys who I think Bowden is overestimating are Kodai Senga. I see him at more a 5 years @20M per with a PO after the 3rd or4th year. THAT I'd consider. It'd be a risk, but...I think a justified one. And then Nathan Eovaldi...but NOT at 4/90. I see him back in Boston at like 2/44 similar to Rodon with a TO for 30M. But the one that makes the most sense is Zach Efflin. Gets a lot of GBs. Whichever order we roll out our IF, it should be good defensively on the IF. He induces soft contact. He can be a swing man or a late inning reliever. Could allow the Brewers to use their pitchers a bit more freely. I'd prefer we go with more high end relievers like Suarez and Montero and spend just a bit more, but Efflin has some appeal to my mind.

Ok, I don't wanna nitpick this too much...because I get your point and Buxton is a FREAK talent when healthy, but I'm looking at it more like the flaws in their game and their peak and impact on their game. deGrom is pretty much the perfect pitcher when he's healthy...kinda like Trout is just about the perfect player when HE'S healthy. And remember, he has a degenerative back problem that's been ailing him. And we've never seen a full season of Buxton. We've seen several full seasons from deGrom, including back to back Cy Young's and one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory. Buxton is a guy who's value comes largely from his defense and...you can get him out. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton break out and have a monster, MVP type season, but I'm not really counting on it. deGrom is the odds on favorite to win the Cy Young next year regardless what league he ends up in. BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1 Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). Kodai Senga 3/72 That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. Eovaldi 4/90 Chris Bassitt 4/74 Taillon -4/70 Zach Efflin 3/36 Now...hypothetically, lets say we traded both Woody and Burnes. I'd be out on Rodon because...why spend that money when you could have just signed one of those two(though you would get massive value back in prospects). That's actually a pretty reasonable price for Rodon, just...don't see the point. The two guys who I think Bowden is overestimating are Kodai Senga. I see him at more a 5 years @20M per with a PO after the 3rd or4th year. THAT I'd consider. It'd be a risk, but...I think a justified one. And then Nathan Eovaldi...but NOT at 4/90. I see him back in Boston at like 2/44 similar to Rodon with a TO for 30M. But the one that makes the most sense is Zach Efflin. Gets a lot of GBs. Whichever order we roll out our IF, it should be good defensively on the IF. He induces soft contact. He can be a swing man or a late inning reliever. Could allow the Brewers to use their pitchers a bit more freely. I'd prefer we go with more high end relievers like Suarez and Montero and spend just a bit more, but Efflin has some appeal to my mind.

I don't think that's a good comp at all. I think Mike Trout is a better comp. When he's healthy and on the field, he's one of the handful of best to ever do it. He's healthy...and nobody is getting any younger, but deGrom did get stronger as the season went on.

I don't think that's a good comp at all. I think Mike Trout is a better comp. When he's healthy and on the field, he's one of the handful of best to ever do it. He's healthy...and nobody is getting any younger, but deGrom did get stronger as the season went on.

How many innings did Mickey Lolich pitch in 1971? Was it over 370 innings?

How many innings did Mickey Lolich pitch in 1971? Was it over 370 innings?

It's not logical...getting more value when you have 1.5 years of team control vs 2, but I agree with you. Take...any number of teams who've been in long droughts or desperately want to win a WS. Maybe the Angels jump out to a 60-40 start next year. Ohtani is a pending FA they're trying to re-sign, they've hit on a bunch of prospects who are having big years, or the Rangers after their Fa splurge find themselves in the same position with some of those promising young arms working their way up, plus the teams that come into the season with a strong rotation that loses a key arm due to injury...Houston, LAD, NYY, Toronto(particularly the later). That's when I could see an overpay. Conversely, if Sal Frelick comes up and he's slashing .300/.380/.430 and Yelich is back to .280./.370./500 without the shift, Turang...not lighting the world on fire, but he's getting on base. .270/.340;/.300 while paying elite defense at what'll likely be 2B and we're up 4-5 games, Ashby, Peralta, Lauer throwing the ball well...then it's hard to justify a trade. This team could be a legitimate WS contender...it could be a middling playoff caliber team. There's no doubt that you can win no matter what if you get in, but...there's a difference between being a team with an elite pitching staff, a good lineup with table setters, middle of the order hitters and then flawed bottom of the order hitters like the Dodgers...and a team like the Phillies. Either can win with these short series, the fluky nature of baseball, but are you better 24 years of top ~100 prospects and maybe a couple of true difference makers on that distinction? I think they know they CAN win a WS. But again, is it worth it to go for it when you need to upset 3-4 teams to win it or if you're one of the favorites. Anyway, good post, I agree.

It's not logical...getting more value when you have 1.5 years of team control vs 2, but I agree with you. Take...any number of teams who've been in long droughts or desperately want to win a WS. Maybe the Angels jump out to a 60-40 start next year. Ohtani is a pending FA they're trying to re-sign, they've hit on a bunch of prospects who are having big years, or the Rangers after their Fa splurge find themselves in the same position with some of those promising young arms working their way up, plus the teams that come into the season with a strong rotation that loses a key arm due to injury...Houston, LAD, NYY, Toronto(particularly the later). That's when I could see an overpay. Conversely, if Sal Frelick comes up and he's slashing .300/.380/.430 and Yelich is back to .280./.370./500 without the shift, Turang...not lighting the world on fire, but he's getting on base. .270/.340;/.300 while paying elite defense at what'll likely be 2B and we're up 4-5 games, Ashby, Peralta, Lauer throwing the ball well...then it's hard to justify a trade. This team could be a legitimate WS contender...it could be a middling playoff caliber team. There's no doubt that you can win no matter what if you get in, but...there's a difference between being a team with an elite pitching staff, a good lineup with table setters, middle of the order hitters and then flawed bottom of the order hitters like the Dodgers...and a team like the Phillies. Either can win with these short series, the fluky nature of baseball, but are you better 24 years of top ~100 prospects and maybe a couple of true difference makers on that distinction? I think they know they CAN win a WS. But again, is it worth it to go for it when you need to upset 3-4 teams to win it or if you're one of the favorites. Anyway, good post, I agree.

He's definitely providing a spark. It's way too early to make any declarations, but he and Carter both look like they could be very key long term pieces. Carter as a role player and Beauchamp...he's not gonna be a #3 or #4 scorer this year, but the way he defended Cade Cunningham, the way he gets out on the break, the way he cuts, he's got a natural feel for the game, he's got length and he's explosive. And he busts his ass on both ends. I like this kid. I THINK the way he's played...it might make the Bucks a little more confident in a potential trade where they deal Allen, Nwora and then maybe...Hill or whatever it may be to match salaries. Starting to see a couple glimmers of hope as Middleton and Jrue start to get a bit older and need a little bit of time off. Also, outstanding to see this team come out and just dominating teams without 2 of their playoff rotation players, their ~8 deep. Hopefully at this point it's Jrue/Carter, Connaughton/Allen, Middleton/Ingles, Portis, Lopez and Giannis.

Well...one of those years was 2020, so that's really not meaningful. He's Jacob deGrom. You might take him over Burnes, but he's healthy...and I suspect you'd be in the overwhelming minority on that. I love Burnes. He's great. deGrom is in a league of his own however. It's 11.4 WAR vs 8.5 WAR since 2020...and again, deGrom WAS injured much of that time. The other has been in his prime and won a Cy Young. That in and of itself is insane. deGrom is all the way back, averaging 99 MPH on his FB again. There's just no comp for him. If he hadn't come back or was still having shoulder issues, absolutely, the risk would be too great. But he came back from a stress fracture in his shoulder and was as dominant as ever. deGrom has allowed 1 or fewer run in almost HALF of his starts...for his entire career. That is...incomprehensible.

Well...one of those years was 2020, so that's really not meaningful. He's Jacob deGrom. You might take him over Burnes, but he's healthy...and I suspect you'd be in the overwhelming minority on that. I love Burnes. He's great. deGrom is in a league of his own however. It's 11.4 WAR vs 8.5 WAR since 2020...and again, deGrom WAS injured much of that time. The other has been in his prime and won a Cy Young. That in and of itself is insane. deGrom is all the way back, averaging 99 MPH on his FB again. There's just no comp for him. If he hadn't come back or was still having shoulder issues, absolutely, the risk would be too great. But he came back from a stress fracture in his shoulder and was as dominant as ever. deGrom has allowed 1 or fewer run in almost HALF of his starts...for his entire career. That is...incomprehensible.

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And just 5 minutes ago you were arguing if the 2021 season was last season or two seasons ago. Seems to me you're enjoy arguing pointless issues while willfully ignoring the very clear point being made and in doing so, sidetrack a discussion.

And just 5 minutes ago you were arguing if the 2021 season was last season or two seasons ago. Seems to me you're enjoy arguing pointless issues while willfully ignoring the very clear point being made and in doing so, sidetrack a discussion.

It really is though. What other pitcher has gotten 9 years and 300M? In fact, I don't think a pitcher has gotten 7 in the last couple years. They're usually 5 or 6 years now. And I do not agree Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball and I don't think it's particularly close. After him there are a number of pitchers you could argue are better than Burnes(Wheeler being one, Scherzer...Verlander among them).

It really is though. What other pitcher has gotten 9 years and 300M? In fact, I don't think a pitcher has gotten 7 in the last couple years. They're usually 5 or 6 years now. And I do not agree Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball and I don't think it's particularly close. After him there are a number of pitchers you could argue are better than Burnes(Wheeler being one, Scherzer...Verlander among them).

Eh....you'd probably hate to look back and read some of your previous posts then.

Eh....you'd probably hate to look back and read some of your previous posts then.

Is he measuring in YEARS or in SEASONS? Now if it wasn't last season...it would have to be the season before? Hence he won a Cy Young two SEASONS ago. And he's not the one who made a big deal of this. You're the one who's nit picking the most benign things.

Is he measuring in YEARS or in SEASONS? Now if it wasn't last season...it would have to be the season before? Hence he won a Cy Young two SEASONS ago. And he's not the one who made a big deal of this. You're the one who's nit picking the most benign things.

330 with playoffs. 130+ pitches. 6 man rotations instead of 4. All of this was REALLY too difficult of a concept to grasp?

330 with playoffs. 130+ pitches. 6 man rotations instead of 4. All of this was REALLY too difficult of a concept to grasp?