UpandIn

Better than average? He's pretty much the definition of average. 102 WRC+ last year, 104 OPS+. Projected to be at 98 WRC+ and he's solid defensively, but he's not a great defender. He was out there because we just didn't have options last year. He's just a guy. I didn't say he had value, I said he was a 4th or 5th OFer. He's got some value or I wouldn't have said he's a 4th or 5th OFer, but a guy with a OBP in the .280s who's not an elite defender, hit lefties alright, doesn't have great speed... I just said he was a 4th or 5th OFer and not much more. Am I wrong?

I don't think you're missing anything, it's just a little out of context. Clancy suggested the Brewers "flip" Winker at the deadline as Wiemer and Taylor could likely match his production. That doesn't make sense to me and I was agreeing with @jakedood who questioned that logic. You trade Winker if he's having a year like he did in 2021 and the Brewers are just bad and everything goes wrong I guess. Beyond that, if he's having a good year, then you want him. Presumably we're competitive. If he's having a repeat of last year, nobody would want him, so what's the point? As for Wiemer, I think it's possible he could force his way onto this roster. I think he's got a Jay Buhner with better speed type upside. I wouldn't count on that next year, but...it's certainly plausible. And if he does, they can make room for him in the OF. Presumably in RF with Frelick in CF and Mitchell...who I'm not completely sold on. I don't think it's a stretch that Wiemer ends up being better than Mitchell and he's a very different type of hitter than Frelick. One that we could really use. But he's such a wild-card, I wouldn't be really factoring him into the plans. A great start to the year and you can re-evaluate, and it'd be great given we've still got pretty serious issues vs lefties, but the point was...there's no need to worry about flipping Winker and there's no reason to swap out his possible production for Wiemer and Taylor's as it doesn't match.

It's really gonna be wild. I never thought Rodgers would leave at any point in the past two years. I have no clue what'll happen this year. Again, I'd guess he'll be back, but I could 100% see the Packers meeting with him, telling him, "we're going younger, our window has closed...if you'd like, we'll work with you to find a good situation next year." And I don't think you NEED to get the best possible pick. A couple 2nds would be fine as well. Hell, at that point, like I said before, trade Bakh. I bet there'd be 20 teams more than happy to take him for a 6M cap hit. Probably a team that'd take Savage. Aaron Jones? Or they'll add void years and restructure and try and run it back. It's gonna be interesting and again, I think by the 1st day of the next league year, we're gonna have a good idea what they're doing.

I don't think Rodgers would show up before camp either way. What makes you think he's suddenly going to attend all the OTAs and what not? He didn't this year with a whole new receiving core saying there was plenty of time in camp. I just don't think that it's a real big deal. Particularly if he goes to a team like Oakland. He could still spend time with the HC or OC.

Well...I think it's a given both will be moved at some point. Are you saying you think they'll do so this year or are you saying in the future?

Agreed. I don't care if in 10 years we look back and Arnold has a big negative WAR from this trade. If you use the benefit of hindsight, this game would be easy. At this time, right now, this trade made so much sense, it seems too good to be true. Maybe NOW we can stop hearing about this Hader trade?

I'm with you...with the sole exception of the Mitchell LA thing. He's got a level swing. I personally don't think adding the loft to it makes much sense at this point as I think THAT seldom works out. If a guy hits for average, gets on base, can steal bases, screw the launch angle. This is what the Brewers are going for after all, right? Lefties who can hit for average and get on base? He's gotta cut his K rate way down, but I'm not real worried about that just yet. Anyway, if Winker comes back next year...just to his career averages, there's absolutely no reason to move him. If he doesn't, well...then there's still none because who'd want him? If Wiemer and Taylor can produce next year...AWESOME. They can play RF and give us the RHed bats we need. That'd ideally be in addition to, not in subtraction of Winker. They're very different. Winker is a DH only. Yelich getting more out in front? Yelich just needs to get the ball in the air more and...well, it's been 3 years and I don't see it changing. I think his BA goes up a bit next year just like a lot of players. 50 year low in BA in MLB forced these changes. It'll help us, but it'll help a lot of players. Taylor is a 4th or 5th OFer who is not a very good hitter and he's not a great defender. In a perfect world, Wiemer takes the RF position and has a huge rookie season, but his swing, the holes in it. He may struggle to adjust to MLB pitching.

It's not like they'd just open the bidding on June 1st. They'd obviously be talking to teams well before then. Rodgers would need to be included in the discussion, the Packers would almost certainly give Rodgers permission to speak with that team to avoid any tampering charges. Seems most likely they're both back in GB for another year, if not two, but the June 1st thing would be accounting. And I really doubt he's going to refuse to play for us next year given his comments this year. About how he'll sit down with "Brian" and talk with the Packers about his future, "see if they want me back." If you watch his McAfee interviews, he still seems pretty excited about this team. Whatever they do, they've pretty much said they're picking up Love's 5th year already(a decision that has to be made this year) and that they believe he can be a starting QB. They control love for the next 2 years and then...not that they would, but they could tag him 3 times, they could put a transition tag on him...and Love has looked good in one game. He looked really good and like an NFL QB, but I don't see that he has a whole lot of leverage here. What's more, lets say the Falcons rumors were true and they loved...uh...Love and were willing to do "whatever it took" to get a deal done last year. Obvious hyperbole, but maybe this year they offer their 1st. IF the Packers think Love is that good, is that worth it? Kinda impossible to know from the outside, but I'd guess Rodgers finishes his career outside GB at this point and that Love takes over and that it all happens in a less acrimonious manner than the Favre-Rodgers transition. At least publicly.

Well...another RHed bat. Doesn't have to be Haniger, but someone who can hit LHPing. We're still missing that from our lineup(though not nearly as much as we were to start the day!

And Arnold talked about the money saved and retaining some flexibility. I like that we've added a lot of pitchers with big fastballs who COULD maybe develop into high leverage relievers, we added a Catcher who hits LHPing about as well as anyone. We've got lefties with speed who get on base in Frelick(yes, I'm counting him), Yelich, Mitchell...maybe...if he can cut the Ks way down. Adames has historically walked at a higher rate. Lefties will benefit more from the shift rules. Tellez is a guy who specifically should(as well as Yelich). I don't want to keep kicking this dead horse, so I'll just say a Renfroe LIKE bat and a little good luck and this lineup could look exceptional. And all it could take next year is Wiemer having one of those giant rookie years similar to Hiura or maybe a Haniger signs to play RF if times goes on and he's still affordable. LPH CF-Frelick C-Contreras LF-Yelich RF-Haniger DH-Winker SS-Adames 1B-Tellez 3B-Brosseau 2B-Urias RHP- CF-Frelick SS-Adames LF-Yelich DH-Winker 1B-Tellez RF-Mitchell C-Narvaez 2B-Turang 3B-Urias It's a stretch, but MAYBE teams are skeptical of Haniger's health and he wants to try and rebuild his value for a year. I think it's possible he could spend a year trying to rebuild his value. And it's unlikely Narvaez comes back, but for a couple million, I'd roll the dice on Omar and if Haniger is on the market long enough to supress his value. Otherwise...I'd just try and find a stopgap RHed OFer. They're generally not that hard to come by. If Winker can get back to his pre '22 form, Adames to his '21 production, the shift helps LHed hitters, particularly those with speed...this could be a very good offense. Still a little work to do, but that Contreras trade sure as hell changes the outlook. A big time bat vs lefties and for cheap...it likely puts other things on the table that otherwise weren't. Especially since we didn't have to go and spend for a guy like Vazquez.

??? "There's not a team out there that wouldn't have the other Contreras brother's production." LOL...what does Wilson Contreras even have to do with this? It's like getting excited the Brewers got a young, 24 year old AS catcher and saying, "yeah, but that's not a team that wouldn't rather have Adley Rutschman." So what? Also, the "other Contreras" went for 5 years 87M and is 30 years old. The one we got...as part of the lesser of the two prospects in the Hader trade, he was...what's the word...uh...BETTER last year offensively. https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=contrwi02&p1yrfrom=2022&type=b&player_id1=contrwi01&p2yrfrom=2022&sum=0&request=1 Oh, and he's also one of the top hitters vs LHPers in Baseball last year on a 100 Win team. So yeah, I think there are teams in baseball would rather have William Contreras production. I think every single one of them would rather have it than spending ~90M on a C who's 6 years older. I'm also curious how you know it's not a franchise altering move? Don't we generally know AFTER the fact? 11 pages. Universal agreement...almost. But you kinda let the cat outta the bag a few weeks back when you basically said you're just a contrarian because it's entertaining.

That seems about right. Maybe a bit short, but close to what seems reasonable. I wonder if the Brewers approach has been to encourage their hitters to swing more freely. Adames has had a pretty good walk rate that was outstanding last year when he spent part of the year with the Rays and then dropped this year. Wong talked about it, about liking the freedom the Brewers gave him to not shorten up on 2 strike pitches. Their prospects seem like they're going to emphasize OBP...that needs to translate though.

I fully understand why people want to sign him. I don't understand why people think things have changed so much because a couple players got massive long term deals. Neither set any type of precedent. Nor do I understand why we'd possibly pay him the same AAV as Trea Turner with 2 years to go before FA. If he wants a 6/110, fine. 27 a year puts him in the 7/190 range and that makes...absolutely no sense in my opinion. You'd be projecting Adames as the 2021 version with the BB rate approaching 12%(in Milwaukee) with the 2022 HRs numbers and the fielding. I could easily see it happening. That he puts it all together. There's no reason to pay for THAT production that you'd be hoping for right now. You pay him based on what he's done and the 2 years left of team control or you let it play out and then deal him in '24. That's how I see it...and I get why people want to sign him. We're better when we have people like Adames in the dugout. Players that keep the team loose, who can hit and field, who seemingly love the game like...Lindor(who still held out for 345M) but you don't pay them top of the market FA money until they've shown they're better than those players or...they're FAs and then you let someone else do it.

I think there are a LOT of teams that would gladly take Rodgers. I don't think teams are worried about Rodgers ability to play....they'll be more worried about how long he'll play for. They'd have to feel confident he wouldn't be a one and done or it'd be pointless, save for maybe SF who would be trading a future 1st and could win a SB with him right now(hell, they might win one with Brock Purdy that team is so loaded). There are plenty of other teams I could see being interested in Rodgers...IF the Packers are going to take a more long term view. The Rams, the Titans, the Raiders with all their weapons may be a good spot. And a team acquiring him, they don't take on the terrible cap situation we do. They've got a ton of cap space. They could trade Carr for a 2nd(or even a 1st) and then turn around and trade for Rodgers. It COULD in theory be similar to the Buccs when they signed Brady. They could get ~70M below the cap WITH Rodgers next year, get a nice pick back for Carr and try and add a bunch of FAs. This is not going to be a fun off-season for Gutekunst. I think he can move on from Rodgers at this point with less criticism than Thompson did, but you'd still be giving up on a QB who just won back to back MVPs for another young guy. He's gonna be CRUSHING it in COD though! Now that he doesn't have to spend 45 minutes a week looking at film?

Well...for starters, I didn't say they were going to do that, I said they're not going to trade Jordan Love because he requests a trade. It should have also been a little obvious I wasn't being completely serious with the wording, but yes, they would be able to navigate their way around the 5th year option and Rodgers cap hit. A salary cap that will be at ~255 at least and could very easily creep closer to 275. By '24, the NFLPA will definitely have paid back the Covid loan(very likely it's done earlier than that). You're also making a lot of assumptions on that cap hit. Will Rodgers be playing in two years? Will it be his final year? I don't know what they'll do, but I know the Packers have effectively said they've seen enough from Love to pick up his 5th year option and they believe he's a starting QB. So I suspect that means they're not trading him now after the Eagles game. Rodgers may well get traded, or he'll play one more year or...I have no idea. All I said was they're not going to trade Love and that he'll have to sit and wait until Rodgers moves on.

No...it's really not even difficult. It's impossible to cut him and it's kill us if he retired, but a trade would be fine. They'd just make it a post June 1. They'd have to work it out like an NBA draft...basically agree to a trade, have them draft a player for us and then wait until the 1st of June to push it through officially. 15M cap hit next year, 25 in '24.

What the hell? They turned Ruiz into Contreras and two pitchers, one with a 100 MPH fastball and the other...well, screw it, who cares about the other. How did they get the Braves to not only trade Contreras, but trade him for THAT package? This feels like a trade in which something isn't being reported. Like a PTBNL or the 33rd pick in the draft.... How did the Brewers insert themselves into this trade and walk away with a 24 year old AS catcher who...by the way, had a 1.000 OPS vs lefties last year?

You gotta go with Turang at some point. I really think Turang vs Wong will be at worst a push next year when you look at his defense and speed. Wong was headed the wrong way physically. Getting slower, his arm was declining. Last year was a fluke year defensively, but I don't think he's a impact defender. Turang should be. He's also a lot faster, makes good contact. He can't POSSIBLY be worse vs lefties than Wong. Turang actually had reverse splits whereas Wong had an OPS of like .430 last year vs lefties. So...getting back Winker is a huge win there. You have the chance at getting back a guy who SHOULD be a .250/.360/.460 guy and that's pretty pessimistic. Given how he hits at AmFam, there's absolutely no reason he doesn't replicate his 2020/2021 season when he put up a combined line of ,292/.392/.552. That's pretty much Yelich like numbers...who, by the way, should also put up better numbers as he's near the top of the list of guys who should benefit the most from the rules regarding the shift. And they also get back Toro...who may not be anything, but he's been an outstanding player coming up in the minors in a stacked Astros system and plays 2nd/3B as a Switch hitter with power. I think we're a lot better off with Turang/Winker/Toro vs Wong...even if Toro doesn't figure it out. If not for the Renfroe trade, I'd be thrilled with the two moves. Then they could just focus on a Catcher and they'd have a really nice looking lineup offensively and defensively. Either way, they didn't. But this trade makes us better.

That SEEMS like the obvious choice...but is it? We're seeing the 49ers just stack talent all over the field. Imagine how good they'd be if they'd have just drafted the best players available instead of trading the 12th, a 3rd rounder, last years 1st and next years 1st all for a QB that isn't even helping them? I saw one mock that had the Lions taking Jalen Carter and Joey Porter Jr. They've got a great OL, WRers, TE...that'd give them a 2nd premiere pass rusher and they've got a big, physical CB. We've seen maybe the most talented QB ever on our team and we've won ONCE. Brady on the other hand has been on just really well coached teams that play hard, play smart and he's got 7 rings(over the course of 4 decades or so, but still, pretty good). Is it really that crazy of them to just stick with Goff, pay him 35M a year instead of the 50 the top QBs make and keep stacking the 21 other players around him? Or...they could always take a guy like Anthony Richardson. He's 6'4 240, runs like Lamar and has a HUGE arm. You hedge your bets. Maybe you get that huge talent at QB, but you don't give up multiple 1sts to go get him. It makes the most sense to draft the QB now, but...I wonder if they buck the trend?

Oh...and I'd politely refuse Mr. Love's request to explore a relationship with another team. We didn't waste our best years on him for him to go find a younger team with more money. He can sit there in a playless 2023 and deal with it. They've already said they're picking up his 5th year...kinda. Rodgers apparently requested a trade himself. Or his team/agents did... He looked good, but...C'mon. 9 passes? I'd hope he wants to play, but...sorry kid, this is what happens when you come out a year earlier than you should have from Utah State. You sit and wait until the team thinks you're ready.

The offense and defense are both kinda in the same places talent wise now with the Gary injury. At least if you think Watson and Doubs are a #1 and #2 WRer. Edge, WRer, LT, DE...and even CB are positions I'd take prioritize. Douglas had a good run last year, but I don't think he's a starting CB. Maybe...if you hire Leonhard, he can play safety. That 3rd safety that is kinda a permanent robber in the middle of the field and then comes down into the box vs the run. Seems like the best use of his talents. It would be a LOT of fun to get another big, freak WRer and just go with a big goon squad of Lazard, Watson, Johnston. Or...whatever, just another young stud WRer like Addison. They don't all have to be the size of a small forward. You're right though, the D should be a lot better with the players. Pretty much everyone knows what

Would you perhaps care to expand?

Also...2020? The 16-19 Brewers. Not sure that's a strong point. We added Escobar, made maybe our worst trade yet by dealing Reece Olson for Norris(but he had been good) and...pretty sure we added at least one other pitcher. Didn't work out. Last year Bush, Rosenthal, Rogers for Hader, then two good prospects doesn't seem like selling. I don't buy the whole, "it ruined the clubhouse," and it was such a bad move. That seems like it's done to appease the fan base.

.288 .385 .504 .888 Winker's career line heading into last year. What would you possibly have considered overwhelming in return for Wong? A player we were likely to buyout for 2 million and nothing in return until he had a 3HR game and went on a small late season run and is now...Winker and a former top prospect who can play all over the IF. Renfroe...I hated that trade...because it makes us worse vs LHed pitchers. But how was Wong underwhelming?

It's obviously their biggest area of need. They're losing Buehler(comparable with Burnes) Tyler Anderson who put up a 2.57 ERA and 4+ WAR, Gonsolin threw 130IP last year, the most he's ever thrown and struggled badly in the post-season. Heaney...who I think they're bringing back saw his ERA drop about 2.70 runs last year and he didn't start in the post-season. And Kershaw is an all-time great, but not the pitcher he was. So a pitcher like Burnes is just about their biggest need. Not saying they'd give up multiple MLB ready pitchers or the value we'd require, but...it's clearly a need. That's not a franchise that's playing to win Division Titles. It does seem obvious they're trying to get under the repeaters tax and again, waiting on a ruling regarding Bauer. They've got about 40M to stay below the tax.