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SF70

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Everything posted by SF70

  1. SF70
    Mostly agree with your take. The Reds have numbers on their side. 7-8 potential IF’s and depth of OF’s as well. This will help mitigate the inevitable regressions they will get from a good amount of their sophomore positionals. I disagree with your assessment of their pitching. They go 10 deep with quality starter options and if they can get Greene to take the next step and Lodolo can finally get healthy— look out — they easily would have the best rotation in the division. They still might even if they don’t hit on both.
  2. SF70
    It’s Ashby for me. His velo this spring will determine where he starts out the year, in AAA, or with the big-club, and if it’s MKE, will it be the rotation or bullpen. Awaiting impatiently for the first word on his velo.
  3. SF70
    This division is going to really be something special over the next 5+ years with all of the young talented rosters and strong farm systems. This season I think the Reds have the advantage providing they don’t get too many sophomore slumps.. Their starting pitching is strong and deep and they have an underrated bullpen. I see a 5 team race most of the year with St Louis & Pittsburgh falling off late in the season.
  4. SF70
    If we’re really gonna dream on a ‘25 rotation let’s add Ashby to Peralta-Woodruff-Hall-Misiorowski with Gasser the 6th starter. How many plus or better pitches in that rotation (assuming Woody makes it all the way back)?
  5. SF70
    Yeah, Wiemer needs time at AAA just to gain the extra ST season, so starting him off at AAA makes sense. As far as holding all 3, I also think that makes sense unless the team gets a trade offer on one they just can’t turn down. I doubt that happens with Mitchell or Wiemer, but maybe it does with Frelick, who likely has the most trade value of the 3. They have so much OF depth it’s ridiculous, with Black an OF option as well, especially if one of our current OF group is traded. Fascinating to see what moves if any the FO makes moving forward.
  6. SF70
    You’re not, Bukauskas should be far down the list of DFA candidates. Really good stuff, but the lack of an option likely kills his long-term opportunity with this club. Another club without the ridiculous organizational bullpen depth of this club will be getting a nice reliever.
  7. SF70
    Nice to see him healthy and throwing. But the velo will tell the story of where he’s really at.
  8. SF70
    Of course. This FO isn’t going to give-away Adames.
  9. SF70
    It’s a no for me. I don’t like Cabrera’s injury history and poor command. Bad combination. Adames is important to the team’s success this year and I want his contract year performance & draft-pick. Trade Williams to add talent. Trade an OF to add talent. Trade a non-Williams reliever to add talent.
  10. SF70
    I think Gasser will definitely make the roster early season and if he doesn’t rotation, then pitches 2-4 innings stints out of the bullpen.
  11. SF70
    This team currently is deep with capable starters for OD— Peralta-Miley-Rae-Hall-Ross-Junis goes 6 deep for a few weeks to get past the extra ST year. Off days early season help as well with the team likely to keep the 5 rest day strategy. There is also Ashby & McKendry if the team has 2-3 starter injuries. Most evaluators I follow project Gasser a #4 starter with some saying he can be more than that. That is a player, even at age 25, that you want to have for 7 seasons, not 6.
  12. SF70
    I think the team will want to extend Quero and do it before he establishes himself as a big-leaguer like they did with Chourio. His combination of age (21-22), signing bonus (200K) and culture (family) should lead to another team-friendly deal. Keep them both for a season (‘25) and trade Contreras offseason post-‘25 season. His trajectory is to be a $60M surplus value trade asset, so, quite the return package ahead.
  13. SF70
    Drafts in ‘24 & ‘25 that approach the ‘23 class in strength will take this team’s system to an Orioles-level system and give us the best young Organizational talent in the NL, even more than Cincinnati. We already should have more pool money in the ‘24 class than Johnson and Co. have ever had. If we get picks for Adames & Hoskins and they sign for $50M+ that could get us near $16M in pool money for ‘25. This could get really interesting.
  14. SF70
    The team isn’t trading Adames, unless they get a return that crushes his contract year performance/pick/pool money/leadership ability, and that’s unlikely to happen.
  15. SF70
    Yes, the team needs to make room in the bullpen for a starter arm and 1 of Williams or Payamps needs to go. I prefer Williams, and for the reasons you’ve already given with special emphasis on potential injury. Payamps also could return a nice piece if teams deem the package for Williams too painful. The Yankees trade would be an outstanding one for this team and one if offered has to be taken.
  16. SF70
    An 85-90 wRC+ would make Turang a valuable contributor to a championship-type team because of his incredible defense at 2B. I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibility, in fact I think it’s probable he improves in the box and gets to that level this season.
  17. SF70
    I would do that trade, but I think the Marlins would want Frelick instead, so no to that. Just hard to imagine any team wanting Mitchell after missing last year and with his injury history.
  18. SF70
    Well said. Lets also add getting the 34th pick and $2.6M in pool money we will use to add what will likely be more impact talent to the system. The 34th pick on its own is pretty close to a team’s 10th best prospect, depending on the system strength. But getting 3 of Baltimore’s top 10-type prospects if we include the pick is actually quite the haul.
  19. SF70
    Tod Johnson & co. Prior to his hiring the team had a decade of poor drafting and development, But after a slow start in ‘17 with the Hiura pick, and a poor ‘19 class, they have really hit their stride with good to great drafts since that have helped make the farm almost the equal of Baltimore, a team with numerous top 5 picks and massive pool monies. The changes Stearns started making to the hitting development department 3-4 years ago appears to be working with numerous prospects now making improvements in the box. After last year’s draft, we now have some power potential added with Wilken-Pratt-Bitonti, and potentially more coming with up to $30M in pool money and 6 of the top 40 picks in the next 2 drafts. I think it’s just as difficult to find a plus defender at SS that can hit the ball hard (Ortiz) as a power hitting bat (Mayo) that can hit in the MOTO.
  20. SF70
    Disagree with virtually every opinion in the article. Agree with the takes from the posters above so I won’t repeat, but I do take issue with the disparaging opinions on the teams recent drafts and hitting development. They aren’t the second best farm in baseball because of their pitching depth. Wilken could end up just as good of a power threat and he could actually be a 3B in the bigs.
  21. SF70
    They definitely have a direction and it’s up. They have tremendous depth with so many options, imo, they can upgrade weaknesses internally on the fly up to the deadline and will have the financial-flexibility to add any payroll they want to, to improve the team further. This years team can win the Central, and this will very likely be their worst team maybe thru the rest of this decade. Top 2 farm system, with a nice young core. Extra picks with ~$13M in pool money for this years draft, and if we QO Adames & Hoskins (and he opts out) 4 top 40 picks with ~$16M in pool money for the ‘25 draft. They have never had anything close to this type of ammo for Johnson & co., but yet they still have produced good to great drafts the last 4 years (reflected in the farm strength). Hopefully a future Quero extension will give us ~10 years of Chourio-Quero with that nice core and monster farm for at least 2-3 years past 2025, if not longer with this teams prospect-procurement systems. They have a direction and have had a direction since day 1 under this teams FO. Just sit back and continue to enjoy the ride.
  22. SF70
    Easy A grade Jake, even if Hall ends up part of the nastiest bullpen in baseball. Ortiz is the prize because of his incredible SS defense/bat combo. Easy 3 WAR floor with 5 WAR upside if he can eventually launch. This is the type of player (plus SS defense) the Brewers value, maybe as much or more than any team in baseball. Getting the draft-pick a year early helps strengthen the farm earlier and in turn helps the ‘26 team vs the ‘27 team.
  23. SF70
    1. Chourio 2. Quero And then everyone else. Quero is the perfect extension candidate for the same reasons Chourio was. Talent & age, but unlike Chourio, who signed for $1.9M, Quero only signed for 200K.
  24. SF70
    Lots of risk, but the upside is enormous. If all goes right, Misiorowski could be another Glasnow. Ashby a TOR starter, and Hall another TOR. But all 3 could also end up in the bullpen. Fortunatly, we have an elite PDS, and as such, at least with Mis & Hall, I’m expecting both to be closer to the former, if not reach their ceilings. Ashby’s shoulder injury could keep him from reaching his ceiling no matter how great our PDS. The FO has done a great job of adding starter talent to the farm in the last 2-3 years, with Gasser & CRod being safe bets to rotation, even if only having #3-5 starter potential. If Ashby can get his stuff all the way back eventually, this team could have a rotation to rival the Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta staff, only this time with great positional talent playing behind them.
  25. SF70
    Don’t think Adames gets moved. I think Adames’s performance for us in his contract year and knowing we can get a comp pick + 2.6M in pool money plus the fact the team wants to contend this year vs what we can get prospect-wise returned, when there are so few teams likely bidding for Adames leads me to conclude he stays.
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