Jake McKibbin

They're as close as you get, but Peraltas got leading stats the last few years as well as an injury free season in which he was perhaps the most dominant second half pitcher in a situation where the Brewers don't need to trade him. As a result, the asking price will be large, and include a big headliner. I think of the lot, I could see the rays parting with caminero easier, given they have good third base production, need for a quality starter and the cheapness of his contract

Whatever Ken Rosenthal says, not every Brewers player is available--or at least, there are some who are only available if the names Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Matt McLain or Junior Caminero come up. The Brewers possess one of the most team-friendly pitcher contracts in baseball. What would it take to move it? Let’s discuss. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Freddy Peralta carried some reliever risk when he signed an extension with the Brewers in 2020, a deal that now looks incredibly fortuitous for the team. He has had a few injury issues, as well as refining his pitch mix to be successful over longer periods of time. Yet, after having surpassed 150 innings pitched for the first time in his career and posted an ERA of 2.81 in the second half of 2023, Peralta is potentially at his peak in terms of trade value. Could the Brewers cash in? Why might the Brewers trade such a valuable asset? Peralta’s injury history and long stretches of inconsistency make trading Peralta at least conceivable.The shoulder issues that plagued him in 2022 are an especially good example: they're worrisome, but not enough so materially dent his trade value. He bounced back incredibly well, but there is always a worry when it comes to the shoulder joint. If the Brewers are ready to entertain a reset (or even a true rebuild), and if some team believes in the brilliance of Peralta's second half, a trade could catapult them toward a new window of sustained contention. In short, the decision rests on whether the Brewers expect themselves to remain competitive in 2024 and 2025 against a surging NL Central, and whether or not Peralta’s injury-checkered past will come back to haunt him. What Value Does Peralta Have? Statistically, Peralta is the most difficult pitcher since 2020 (of pitchers with 300+ innings) to get a hit against, with a paltry batting average of just .190. Over that span, he’s recorded 11.6 strikeouts per nine, a 1.05 WHIP, an 8.8% walk rate, and a FIP of 3.35. It’s truly elite pitching, and the scary part is that he’s still getting better: His slider had a swing-and-miss rate of 30.2% in 2022; it rose to 45.8% in 2023 His changeup was 3 mph faster in 2023 He passed 210 strikeouts and 150 innings for the first time in 2023 He increased the swing-and-miss on his fastball from 24.9% to 29.2% That same fastball averaged 2 mph quicker in 2023 In short, Peralta’s raw stuff and the ways he uses it are getting better, showing just how dominant he could be from July to September, with seemingly the only blemish being the occasional solo home run allowed. On top of this talent is his aforementioned contract, with Peralta earning a measly $5.5 million in 2024, and the team options for 2025 and 2026 coming in at just $8 million per year. In total, for three years, he would cost just $21.5 million, making him incredibly valuable to any prospective suitors. You can think along the lines of the Juan Soto trade, which was for a more talented player but also a considerably more expensive one. Who Could Afford Him? If Peralta were traded, you can guarantee it would be for a plethora of upper-echelon prospects--the kind of haul only five or six clubs even have to offer. The only relevant options are the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Tampa Bay Rays. Given the need for an elite headliner, you can eliminate the Cubs and the Dodgers from the race. Pete Crow-Armstrong is an exciting defender, but they would need more of a bat to justify trading away Peralta, while the Cubs farm system has fewer high-quality infielders. Here are some potential trade pieces around whom deals really could center: Baltimore Orioles - Jackson Holliday/Gunnar Henderson Peralta’s contract puts exactly this type of prospect into the conversation. Henderson is the 2023 Rookie of the Year, and Holliday is a potential 2024 winner. It's unlikely that either of them are available, even in return for three years of a dominant pitcher. The Orioles' biggest need is an ace, though, with an exciting lineup and some stars in their lineup. They didn’t have someone who struck out hitters at a high rate in 2023, and a one-two punch of Peralta and Kyle Bradish would really make that pitching staff look sharp. Holliday is the top prospect in baseball, having reached Triple A at age 19. He has a remarkable feel for the strike zone and an incredible hit tool. A consistently plus runner and with strength still to come, he has the range and arm to stay at shortstop, and enough power to hit 20 home runs per season even before further physical development. Henderson’s resume speaks for itself. However, the Orioles do have prospect-hugging tendencies and may look for help on the free-agent market, or even cheaper trade options like Corbin Burnes or Tyler Glasnow instead. Cincinnati Reds - Matt McLain/Graham Ashcraft/Nick Lodolo McLain was outstanding last season, driving the ball consistently into the gaps and providing above-average defense at both second base and shortstop. Accruing 3.7 WAR on the season while slashing .290/.357/.507, he would be the headline figure in this deal. With Elly de la Cruz and Noelvi Marte around, the Reds would be happy with this deal, while the Brewers can look to either bolster their infield and keep Willy Adames, or trade him and hope Brice Turang’s bat comes around. The Brewers may want a pitching prospect, too, but McLain adds a ton of value, and the Reds desperately need quality pitchers. Add in a sweetener for the Brewers with either Ashcraft or Lodolo, each of whom have shown enough to be successful but haven't quite put it together (personally I prefer Ashcraft) and this would suit the Brewers nicely. Tampa Bay Rays - Junior Caminero, Other (Perhaps SP Kevin Kelly) The Rays love a low-cost pitcher. They may be loath to trade a top infield prospect until Wander Franco’s off-field issues are resolved, but they have a core group that could really be bolstered by Peralta. They also have a top-10 prospect in baseball in Junior Caminero, who is likely to wind up at third base, with average defensive skills at the hot corner bolstered by a remarkable bat. At just 20 years old, Caminero hit .324/.384/.591 on the season, spending over half the year at Double A. At that level, he hit 20 home runs in 81 games, with a strikeout rate of just 17%, Caminero even got a taste of the Majors to finish the season, hitting his first home run. Caminero is a star in the making, and with quality players already in place at the corner-infield spots (Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz), they may be more comfortable dealing from a position of strength. (Alternatively, maybe Diaz himself would be a good target in the deal. He's on a similarly team-friendly deal, running through 2026 with a club option.) Trading Peralta would, undoubtedly, hurt the Brewers. However, this caliber of trade, with these headliners, could make a massive difference on the field to what is currently an area of real weakness in the Brewers farm system on the left side of the infield. It could be a genuine win-win type of trade. Would you consider trading Peralta for any of the above names? If that level of talent were unattainable, would you be open to moving Peralta for the next tier of young player around the league? Let's entertain some ideas. View full article

Chourio is still there! Another 3-5 night with a double and a stolen base in Aguilas 5-1 win. His batting average is up to .381 Carlos D Rodriguez and the Navegantes weren't in action

Well we got our answer .. that's so rough, I think most of all I just hate that woody is put in this position with this injury at this specific time. He didn't deserve that, but the Brewers can't be stupid with money because of emotions. It just can't work that way

Would you rather pay $20m with nothing remotely guaranteed performance wise?

I'm beginning to agree, even if he could play by July '23, that would make a huge difference but it's just not feasible, and likely a waste of money to do anything other than trade him

Woodruff did mention it's possible he's throwing again in June/July, so available down the stretch

Chourio went 3-5 in what could be his final game (original sources were 15 games, but some speculation it may be 20), including a stolen base and a double. If that is his final game, he's finished with a .362/.439/.517 line for a .956 OPS overall. with seven walks to seven strikeouts Carlos D Rodriguez went 2-5 also in Navegantes 12-1 win, raising his average to .298 and included a run scored and an RBI

Mayo is interesting, quality bat but I don't think he fits the Brewers, in part because he's sub par defensively at both first and third base

We could do, though maybe combining Adames with him would be rushed. Given I think the Brewers will have a shot in 2025/26, I think it makes a ton of sense to go 2 years with a big team option 3rd year, important. Definitely can't be stingy at negotiating table, but he's so so good when fit. And you can write off a short term contract like that easily, it's the extra years that hurt you

Woody will either sign a multiple year deal or be non tendered... What does everyone think is going to be the outcome?

It's been two and a half years since MLB tried to crack down on the sticky substances darkening pitchers' hands and firming up those hands' hold on the baseball. Corbin Burnes and his mind-boggling cutter were long suspected of being artificially enhanced that way. With his regression since the 2022 All-Star break, questions loomed. Now, however, it's time to prove once and for all that Spider Tack played no part in his success--something that should improve his value both in projected on-field performance next year, and on the hot stove. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Corbin Burnes is a top-tier, true ace of the rotation, having accumulated more than 200 strikeouts in each of the last three seasons. He pairs durability with the raw stuff of dreams. Grip enhancement or none, he is an outstanding pitcher and should be recognized as such. It’s not an open-and-shut case; there's certainly some ambiguity. However, it’s beginning to appear that Burnes’s success was not fueled by use of any illegal substance; the timelines don’t really match up. The Important Dates June 2021 - The initial crackdown Spin rates decreased quickly in June, but began to rebound as the season went on, particularly in September. That month, the average spin rate was 2,350 RPM, up from less than 2,250 RPM in July and August. It meant MLB had to do more to address the issue in 2022. They believed pitchers had found a way to circumvent checks later in the year, given the routine nature of the umpire’s checks April 2022 - The Updated Methodology New rules came in to begin 2022, allowing umpires to inspect more than just the glove, hat or belt, and instead inspect the pitcher's hand for any evidence of a stickier substance being there. It resulted in some protestations, but for the most part, it's cut down massively on the number of anomalies in the system and been key to evening the playing field. Did the crackdown work? In short, yes. Between Apr. 1, 2019 and May 31, 2021, there were 1,057 fastballs thrown with a spin rate of over 2,900 RPM. Over that time, the man notorious for many things (including his condemnation of pitchers using Spider Tack) Trevor Bauer led the league with 214 2,900+ RPM fastballs. From June 2021 through the start of 2023, this number dropped by 86 percent, to just 146 fastballs league-wide, and the league leader over that time is Trevor Rogers, with 12. It’s a stark contrast, and has resulted in a rise in batting average year on year, for the first time in decades. Corbin Burnes's Role in it All Burnes’s high-spin cutter, which pairs extreme velocity with above-average movement, has been devastating since he introduced it in 2020. He's demonstrated a supreme feel for spin that leavrs hitters confounded at the plate. It made sense why people would be suspicious of this unique offering coming as a result of Spider Tack. In line with the above dates mentioned, here are Burnes's split stat lines: Apr. 1, 2020-May 31, 2021: 2.21 ERA, 1.63 FIP, 13.75 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, 0.34 HR/9 Jun. 1, 2021-Sept. 30, 2021: 2.32 ERA, 1.73 FIP, 11.90 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9 It’s clear to see that, after the initial crackdown during Burnes’s Cy Young year, there was hardly a dropoff at all. In fact, Burnes displayed improved command of his pitches. Given that there was a sag in MLB spin rates in June, July and August, you would expect some level of difference by this point. There was a decline in strikeout rate, but that could plausibly be more as a result of hitters getting a better look at his cutter and a better approach to it at the plate. Apr. 1, 2022-Jul. 15, 2022: 2.14 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 11.40 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9 The underlying stats again show a total contempt for hitters. Burnes churned out quality start after quality start even amidst the extra attention to tacky substances. His home run rate did go up, and has been a concern for him in recent years, but that appears to be due more to his pitch mix, with everything working better down in the zone. It should be noted, too, that although his FIP increased substantially, he drastically outperformed his expected FIP in both 2020 and 2021, while he was actually slightly unlucky in 2022. Using these time periods, and his consistent performance throughout, it appears quite clear that Burnes was not enhancing his pitches illegally. However, if more evidence is needed, here are his spin rates compared to average: It’s all quite subtle, but his cutter actually moved more in 2022 than it did in 2021, and it’s also important to discount the 2019/2020 outliers (given the smaller sample sizes). There is a concern about the dropoff in 2023 that may be worth revisiting, but it should be noted that he also had a downtick in velocity in 2023 that marries up well with the reduced spin. In short, Burnes’s surface-level numbers, underlying performance metrics, and pitch movements demonstrate a consistency that belies the use of any unnatural substances to boost his performance. It means that he still has the Cy Young pitching ability in his arsenal, something he has shown in short spurts since the 2022 All-Star break. Knowing that he can still be the 2021 version of himself increases his value on the field and the trade market massively, and gives some enticing options to the Brewers front office. View full article

My bad, completely misread it, thought they were referring to him as a centerpiece for Burnes, evidently glanced over it! Certainly not calling people here stupid my friend, just an honest mistake

That's entirely fair, I actually didn't realise they were talking about him for Alonso too... it'll not happen, though I could see Morel being part of the equation.. I'm not saying he's not valuable, they're trying Morel at first I believe in winter leagues to get him some ability to get 500+ AB's per year, in which case he's a thirty home run guy with a large hole in his bat. Rowdy Tellez is kind of that already (I'm not saying he will be better 2024, but it is reasonable to call 2023 an outlier year for him). The Brewers will want middle infielders with bats, or starting pitching

It's actually the mention in the article rather than Matt's view! It also refers to Horton as potentially the best pitching prospect in baseball by next season

I'd also maybe disagree with this slightly given how much Horton developed towards the end of the season, especially his changeup. Six-seven years of Horton is fair in all likelihood, but the rivalry probably requires a little extra

I definitely can't see Morel being the center piece of this in any way mind, he's probably had a career year with that .821 OPS, but no defensive home limited him to just 1.2 WAR on the season. For Burnes, they'd need somewhere closer to top prospect capital, especially from the Cubs

Well this is fun having just written a handbook piece on it... the Cubs have a very intriguing farm system, and Horton is probably the jewel (for my money even more than PCA). I also wouldn't mind this trade at all if we got to raid their system, and Burnes left after a year, though that compensatory CBA pick would have to be factored into the deal value wise

Anderson intrigues me... he can hit, but it all depends on his mentality. The Brewers could be the perfect place to get more out of him however, it's a real 50/50 coin toss

Chourio with his first stolen base too, nabbing third. It almost seemed as if he wasn't being allowed to run

I feel the same way, I'm unsure if Mendez or Moore would make the big leagues, but they both have undeniable talent in there. Dunn does seem more big league ready at a level it's tough to see Mendez or Moore dominating next season. Dunn had his first full season in the minors last year and has shown burgeoning power coupled with a stroke to all fields, and quality defense (if not Turang level) at second base. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him kick on in Triple A and force an opportunity this year, but those strikeouts have to come down. Would be interesting to know if there were any specific pitches/strike zone areas he struggles with but I couldn't find any data on that unfortunately EDIT: Seems he has a particular issue with fastballs up and away from him. Apparently also has above average opposite field power, but also some varying reports now about the quality of his defensive acumen

This seems pretty apt, he does seem to be a late developer in a lot of ways, went very well with the Yankees Double A affiliate in 2022, Phillies acquired him in minor league rule V draft last season too. He's got the ability to drive a ball, and when he does connect it's good, however those strikeouts are worrying, and there wasn't much development in this area last season either. He does take his walks to mitigate a little, but biggest bonus is that as you say, he's not just a bat, he's above average defense at second base

Oliver Dunn is a breakout left-handed bat from the Phillies, playing second base and hitting .271 with 21 home runs, acquired in exchange for outfielder Hendry Mendez and infielder Robert Moore. Image courtesy of © Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports Oliver Dunn is coming off a season in which he has just won the breakthrough player award for Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League, off the back of a year in which he slashed .271/.396/.506 for the Phillies Double-A affiliate. A patient bat results in a 27.5% strikeout rate, which will need to improve, but he's a high-end lottery ticket with a bat that could take off. Robert Moore and Hendry Mendez struggled in 2023, Moore with both bat and glove and Mendez regarding his power. Mendez is just 20 and could still grow into his potential, but the Brewers will feel they've gotten the better end of this transaction. The Brewers got into this deal due to the impending deadline for the Rule 5 draft, and the Phillies expected to lose Dunn at that point anyway, so both sides will be happy with what they've obtained. Dunn's profile has developed massively. However, it's important to note that at 25, he was old for Double-A and playing in a hitter-friendly park in Philadelphia. Keith Law, upon seeing him in the AFL, said, "All I saw Dunn do was hit, run, and work the count." He's competent at second base, with a smattering of time at third base, shortstop, and left field since turning professional, on top of being an above-average runner. His contact issues are concerning, and it remains to be seen if the Brewers see something they can work on in this area. He has power and a good eye at the plate with solid defensive chops. There's a lot to like here. On the other side of the coin, shortstop Robert Moore, the 72nd pick in 2022 with smooth fielding actions, never quite loved up to his potential in a Brewers uniform, albeit there is undeniable talent there. For someone of his speed, he is caught on the basepaths a little too often and recorded a .682 OPS in 123 games at High A Wisconsin, showing flashes of excellence with the glove but just not making the type of contact he or the Brewers hoped for. Mendez has potential, too, but he is another player the Brewers may have been hoping for more from by age 20. Currently playing in the winter leagues, Mendez got off to a hot start with the Brewers in the DSL but hasn't had an OPS over .700 since he came stateside in 2022. There would have been hope for him to progress on his five home runs as a 19-year-old in 2022, but he regressed in the power department. It's possible the Brewers saw both of these prospects struggling in double-A next year and figured they could get a long shot at a position where they would love a competent bat. We at Brewer Fanatic wish them all the best in their future careers and are incredibly excited to see what Oliver Dunn can do in Nashville and maybe Milwaukee next season. Law also said of Dunn at the Phillies: "I think they've got a big leaguer." View full article