Jake McKibbin

I had the exact same thought while writing the article, but wondered if that was me being a little off kilter, nice to see someone else agrees!

Absolutely, I think it's the fact that even as a SSS, his expected stats very much match up to the results, and its not BABIP oriented, though I don't expect him to have this sort of home run production in perpetuity, or even production in general. In his first stretch with the team, he didn't show a week long production like this at any point really, so it does demonstrate at least that he's capable of it The main thing is definitely his Strikeout to walk ratio, that's massive for him. I'm expecting the league to adjust at some point, but we'll see how he handles that

Good point, forgot just how bad he's been... though he is hitting .281 over his last 15 games, .264 over his last 30!

https://eu.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2023/08/07/brewers-willy-adames-gets-day-off-during-worst-slump-of-career/70541438007/ Adames own comments here too “You try different stuff to see what clicks,” Adames said. “I’m just hoping for that click. I feel like I haven’t found it, haven’t been consistent. I’ve been having one good day at the plate and then it just goes away. I haven’t had whole week where it’s like, ‘OK I’m feeling great this week.’ It’s been like one or two days then it’s gone for two weeks. Then it comes back for one day and it’s gone ahead. I’m like, ‘What the heck?’”

Brice Turang may be more than the Brewers ever hoped for, as he's impressed in every facet of the game since his most recent recall. Is this a franchise cornerstone moving forward? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports With his premium glove at second base and a passable OPS, Brice Turang has already provided about as much as anyone hoped for from him as a rookie. However, prior to his big night on Monday, Turang was hitting .257/.357/.378 (good for a 102 WRC+) since he returned from his three-week demotion to Triple-A Nashville, with as many walks as strikeouts over that span. All of this is actually suppressed by a .284 BABIP, which is remarkably low for someone of Turang’s speed, suggesting he may even have been a little unfortunate over that span in terms of his expected statistics. By comparison, he struck out 27.1% of the time until June 6, with a slash line of .205/.254/.307, tapping into almost no power and not getting on base at a remotely acceptable clip. He’s shown a lot of raw power at times, golfing balls out of the park, but it’s mostly the quality of his at-bats that have trended upward. He seems to have a much more focused approach--a clearer idea of what he’s trying to do at the plate. Some of this comes from his mechanical tweaks, which have allowed him to start the bat significantly later, and eliminated a lot of the extreme chasing and swing-and-miss we saw earlier in the season. Let’s contrast two at-bats here, the first one being the final pitch against Zac Gallen, on a curveball miles below the strike zone: 35c2f106-0201-48e8-96fd-1e72ead9fecb.mp4 And here is a shot of his three run homer against the Pirates last Thursday: 2fd0a9ce-98d1-4370-89de-4b5aaf06e353.mp4 Notably, he's scrapped the huge leg kick, which just doesn’t seem to be cut out for the high velocity in the major leagues in this day and age. He takes a short step now, with his foot barely leaving the ground. His starting stance is very relaxed, and very upright, with his feet together, whereas previously, his leading right foot was behind his left (similar to Ozzie Albies's wide-open stance). He's now able to create more forward momentum with the leg kick. These little tweaks allow him to see the ball later and make better swing decision. Against Gallen in April, he couldn’t get his leg down quickly enough to start his swing, and he was always rushing to catch up afterward, resulting in a very poor chase. Against Mitch Keller, his foot was down almost immediately after the ball was released, creating a good swing decision on a pitch on which he could do damage. To enhance the quality of contact and get the ball in play slightly more often, he also seems to have his hands starting considerably closer to his body. As a result, he's been able to do a lot more damage on the inner third of the strike zone, pulling balls high and majestically out of the park. He no longer has to pull his hands in quite so much during his swing; they were almost comically extended away from him to start the season. In short, with these three changes, he’s cured a lot of his early season issues, allowing himself more time at the plate and more coverage of the strike zone to enhance his bat-to-ball skills. What do his underlying metrics say about his performance since the recall? May July August Chase Rate 30.2% 25.3% 21.6% Hard Hit Rate 22.2% 27.6% 41.2% xWOBA .271 .309 .510 xSlg .267 .344 .654 When he came back up, Turang was still adjusting and implementing his new approach. It took until after the All-Star break before his adjustments really began to show an improvement in terms of the power potential in his bat, while before then, he was demonstrating an ability to take walks and draw out an at-bat, get on base, and use his speed and the Brewers' potent bats at the top of the order to drive him in. The reduction in swing-and-miss has been a big boost as well. Turang was struggling early in the year with almost any high fastball; it was a massive hole in his swing. So far in August, however, he’s whiffing on just 9.1% of fastballs, with an average exit velocity of over 90 mph. He has a -10 run value against four-seamers this season, and (as Jesse Winker found out) if you can’t hit a fastball, you will struggle in this league. Turang appears to have sorted it out, and while I’m not suggesting he’ll have an xwOBA of .510 for the rest of the season, he can definitely be a key cog in the Brewers offense moving forward--especially if Willy Adames can’t orchestrate a return to form. He’s struck out just once in 24 plate appearances so far in August. This is a man who feels comfortable in the batter’s box, and who might have unlocked his star-caliber potential. Throughout the minor leagues, there was always a suspicion among coaches that he had more power than he was tapping into, and it might be coming to fruition. Regardless, if his bat-to-ball skills stay where they are now, the Brewers have a productive shortstop they can count on for the next six years. Would you consider an extension for Turang at the end of the season? And could he be a player that makes a difference down the stretch, and potentially in October? View full article

Usually you'd be absolutely correct! However apparently there's a twist in the tale as per @Mass Haas

He will likely have more value based on the considerably reduced K rate in Nashville over the offseason as well as his salary being $1.1 million in the offseason, but we'll see! I can see them giving him another shot as at least he has more trade value if he hits vs negligible loss if he doesn't and goes for nothing Also quite possible next year is a slight transition year, in which case, he could have more of a chance for playing time. It's likely either he or Rowdy could be ferreted off this off season

Further to that, here's his Nashville stats since returning from injury (147 plate appearances) .278/.394/.442 for an .836 OPS The OBP is fuelled by Hit by pitches, having walked 12 times and been hit on 10 occasions It's really two different conversations, and you can't really want to bring him up when he's not hitting like he can. When he's ready, absolutely, but currently he isn't (though again may be working round to it) One positive is he's struck out still at just a 21% clip over this time. I do think like Frelick the injury may still have niggled at him, but we saw Frelick find his form really quickly when he was injury free, and it could be the same for Keston That being said, here's a few numbers for comparison Jon Singleton .976 OPS Jahmai Jones .932 OPS Luken Baker - 1.162 OPS - Got 19 at bats this season with the Cardinals, despite all of their struggles, with a .563 OPS Luke Voit 1.035 OPS Jake Cave 1.113 OPS Does highlight some of the quality of pitching this season at triple A, and how it's not necessarily a guarantee of success

The biggest flaw is he's a streaky hitter with no recent consistent proof of MLB performance that can't play defense. Whether it's him, Winker or whoever, you're trying to work out who has the best shot to contribute. Personally I believe without the hand injury he'd have been called up given Winker's injury shortly after, and his outrageous form but that really scuppered things. He surely was ahead of Singleton at that point Counsell is okay with one DH on the team, has no issue with it at all but the limited roster means you can really only afford one. And i can't stress enough how at the trade deadline, Hiura wasn't tearing down trees, and hasn't since his return. If he does, this is an entirely different conversation, but he didn't show the slugging numbers he put up in April/May. When your game is based around slugging, that's not going to cut it. As I said, a conversation before he got injured is a whole other discussion. A conversation since, he hasn't been pushing it, with roughly league average OPS (I think AAA averages .850 OPS numbers atm? Very offense heavy leagues) That being said he might be coming around. He's had 20 AB's in August, with two doubles, a home run and three strikeouts (15% K Rate) for a .350/.409/.600 line so far. Obviously incredibly SSS, but he did pop a couple of home runs on 26th and 28th July too. Between 16th June and 25th July he hit just two home runs, that's not a Keston who will be called up If he can get back to where he was pre injury, that's a very interesting conundrum however (He was hitting .331/.396/.678) and had reduced his strikeouts considerably Hope that helps!

I think it was @Mass Haaswho said something about because he was on the big league roster all of 2020, he cant elect minor league free agency next season as he would have been able to otherwise As a result, the Brewers can keep him off their 40 man until next year and pay him $1.1 million Once he's added to their 40 man this option will go however

Fangraphs rankings are very strange (unsure when they were updated, but it is after the draft as they have Skenes in there) But they've got James Wood who has a lesser WRC+ to Chourio this season in AA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and doesn't play Chourio's premium defense ranked third And Jackson Merrill, a good shortstop with a 33.2% strikeout rate in AA ranked second and again a lesser WRC+ to Chourio Jackson Holliday is an absolute beast mind, remember the thought that picking him was a budget saver with the first choice ahead of Druw Jones (who to be fair is injured)

Is Pete Alonso getting hot just in time to screw the Cubs? He mashed against MKE earlier in the year, it's only fair

Tim Anderson will likely be banned for the series unless he wins an appeal (given he started the fight, quite clearly swinging first I'd imagine this is unlikely). That does help some

I think timing has definitely played a part this season too.. he was on fire, it was extra base hits every other game, really comfortable at the plate, and got injured at the worst possible moment and out for two months. Since then he has done okay, but isn't tearing down walls like he did early in the year. The timing of Winker getting injured and then Rowdy struggling at this point just didn't help him, but I can see two ways he gets with the club again. 1) He goes on fire again, with a 1.100 OPS in Nashville and gets the callup to be a regular DH if the Brewers aren't hitting by the end of August (i actually think Canha has been unfortunate BABIP wise and looked solid at the plate) 2) the Brewers have him for next year. if he finishes the season out strongly, with a .950 ish OPS and the Brewers offense is going well enough they don't want to waste their final usage of him (especially with Tellez coming back, would probably mean DFA-ing Santana), then they'll keep him there, keep working in the offseason, and have him start next season in the majors

This sounds like exactly how not to run a club No wonder there's been so much underperformance when no one's getting pushed

The call by the guardians commentator is legendary "They're fighting, they're swinging, DOWN GOES ANDERSON" "Anderson squared off, José decked Im"

Oh sorry may have come across wrong! I was thinking more in general recently that Eric Lauer has looked really good over multiple appearances not just this one, didn't mean to impinge the write up at all, really love reading these!

It's based around his stats in July, I think they do show he was unlucky over the course of the month I saw a lot of strange hard hit outs that just weren't finding grass which lead me to investigate the month as a whole when I found the background stats. I'm not saying he's going to have a .900 OPS to finish the season, but I also don't think he's a .600 OPS guy and deserved considerably better than the results he got last month Did the background numbers surprise you?

Swing and miss is swing and miss though, they seem to be giving him multi innings in relief to build him up again, wouldn't surprise me if he was starting at AAA by September

There have been some brighter spots too where we've seen lots of line drive outs as well To play devil's advocate on myself, the one really worrying stat is the cratering hard hit rate compared to 2021 and 2022. I'm okay with him having a javy Baez style approach, as long as he mashes every now and then. He's always been streaky and mercurial, and I think it's hard to say he hasn't had misfortune with his expected stats to this point. He has been piss poor the last four to five games mind, so maybe my timing is slightly off with this article, but interestingly he's averaging 95mph + exit velocities in the very SSS so far in August Anyway I digress, I think there's signs he could go on a run for a few weeks, or he could continue to mire in a slump, but certainly wouldn't be surprised either way. He's a little lost at the plate but a little confidence boost and Boom

He did find his straps pre AS break absolutely, but he has always been up and down. I think his expected stats do tell a story however and he's clearly been unlucky, especially in July

Not to go unnoticed is Eric Lauer who has looked notably better upon his return with some big swing and miss stuff again. He may have fixed things, meaning he's a sixth starter sitting in Nashville

Yeah he's looked a little more iffy the last 25 plate appearances or so, but he's never going to be consistent, he's a streaky hitter at his best. I think early in the season he was very vocal about his walk rate, and that led to him being too passive on pitches in the zone, since he's become more aggressive again he's fallen on some hard luck but I've a feeling we'll get a two week stretch of hot hitting from him, maybe more. A couple of good homers will probably take the stress off his shoulders somewhat too, but he's definitely been better as of late and in hoping for his sake that he can burst out Absolutely. Adames and Tellez getting hot makes this offense top 10 instantly. Adames and Tellez cold make it bottom 10 This is all going to come down to a hot stretch and who makes the most of it now and in September