Jason Wang

Any Joe Schmoe can spend a bunch of money on free agents. It takes real guts to have a productive offseason without writing too many big checks, so how would someone as intelligent as myself run the show? This series of articles is a primer for the release of our new "You're The Brewers GM!" tool, where you play the role of Matt Arnold and build your own Brewers offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun! At this point, people are pretty clear about Milwaukee’s budgetary constraints. They’ve never signed a record-breaking contract, and it doesn’t seem like it will change soon. Using Brewer Fanatic’s new payroll tool, we can establish that as is, the roster will cost ~$112 million with an estimated final budget of $130 million. This means we have an extra $18 million to spend, quite a bit if you know where to put it, but a small amount of breathing room compared to the fat cats in the big markets. How do we make the most out of this spending limitation? Goodbye to Old Faces It makes sense to drop the team’s two most valuable pieces: Willy Adames and Devin Williams. Because he’s a free agent, Adames has technically already been dropped, but semantics aside, I don’t see the Brewers trying very hard to retain him. Matt Arnold and Pat Murphy have been as lukewarm as possible on his future with the team, and with Adames likely receiving offers north of $150 million, he has likely worn that cheese head for the last time. Because they extended the qualifying offer, the team will get an additional pick in 2025, and they have a wealth of young middle infield talent, so it’s not all bad. Devin Williams still has a full year of team control left and could be wanted by several teams. By packaging him off to a new team, the Brewers would save an estimated $8 million in arbitration and could instead rely on Trevor Megill, who already filled the closer role last year to great effect. Outside of those two names, the Brewers don’t have much control over what to do with the other large contracts on their books. Christian Yelich and William Contreras would never get traded, while Rhys Hoskins would be a hard sell given his $18 million salary and little to show. Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Civale, and Freddy Peralta are all necessary parts of the rotation, and past that, no other contracts will eclipse more than $5 million. Thus, assuming the team trades Willams for a handful of prospects, our new payroll is $104 million with ~$26 million to spend. Decision #1: Allow Adames to walk Who’s On Third? When Adames leaves, Milwaukee must fill the gap in his position. The team is lucky to have Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang, who have spent time playing shortstop, but after his platinum glove escapades in 2024, Turang is guaranteed to stay at second base. Most of Ortiz’s time in the minors was spent at shortstop, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume he’ll return to his roots. If so, that leaves an opening at third base that could be filled by Andruw Monasterio or someone else, probably the latter, given the middling results from Monasterio in the past. Unfortunately, the free-agent pickings at third base are slim. I’m more likely to sign with the Brewers than Alex Bregman, and a reunion with Brian Anderson or Luis Urías would be underwhelming at best, a waste of money. It’s also worth noting that there are more alluring options at shortstop if Ortiz is to remain at the hot corner, but none seem to fit Milwaukee’s needs and financial restrictions. So what about the trade market? The most sensible option to me is Alec Bohm. Not only are the Phillies proactively trying to trade him, but the Phillies also need a closer for 2025, so a deal could be made to swap major-leaguer for major-leaguer and a few pieces in between. Bohm took a big step forward on the way to his first All-Star selection in 2024, posting a 117 OPS+ with 44 doubles, 15 home runs, and 97 RBI. He has top-quartile strikeout and whiff numbers and is a capable fielder, so there's plenty of stuff to be happy about, and he’s undoubtedly an upgrade over Monasterio. It’s hard to say who is worth more, depending on how much Philadelphia values team control. Williams is one of the best closers in baseball but will become a free agent in 2026. Bohm has an extra year of team control but isn’t as individually impressive. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume that a deal could be done on a one-to-one basis. Unfortunately, Bohm’s projected $8 million in arbitration offsets any gains from dropping Devin Williams, but it gives the Brewers more marginal value. There have also been trade rumors about Nolan Arenado, but he’s clearly at the end of his career and will cost more than $70 million at the end of his contract. Prospect-wise, Brock Wilken and Mike Boeve are the closest to debuting, but after a lukewarm regular season and an even tougher showing in the Arizona Fall League, I think Wilken needs a little more time to bake. Boeve was putting up dominant numbers before sustaining a serious injury so he could impress enough to get called up sooner rather than later, but it will take time before he’s ready for the big leagues. Thus, calling up one of these two third-base prospects should be an “in case of the emergency move” rather than a primary option. Decision #2: Trade Devin Williams for Alec Bohm Bats for Arms, or Arms for Bats? Bats for Bats? While Adames’s departure will leave a very specific gap, Milwaukee still has a wealth of outfield talent that is too good to let hang on the bench. With Garrett Mitchell (hopefully) and Christian Yelich (hopefully) back, the trio, plus Jackson Chourio, could be the King Ghidorah of the division. It’s great to have backup options like Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins, but one has to wonder whether there’s a greater return to be had by trading someone on the bench for a player who could be of more regular use. I believe you can always have more arms, and given the team’s recent injury history, another starter or a few bullpen arms definitely couldn’t hurt. This is less of a definite move and more of an open invitation to hear from potential suitors. For example, Blake Perkins could be a great addition for any team needing a premier outfield defender with tons of team control and potentially promising peripherals. Sal Frelick profiles similarly with more emphasis on making great swing decisions and less power upside, but he also possesses a top-tier glove. Decision #3: Look to trade an outfielder for prospect equity Free Agent Fiesta The Brewers are perhaps the most boring team regarding free agency rumors. They’re rarely named as favorites, and they don’t even get the Red Sox treatment of constantly being “interested” in top names. That said, assuming a Williams/Bohm trade goes through, we’d still have another $18 million to spend before reaching our budget, a perfectly reasonable amount. Milwaukee will likely target a short-term deal, like the Hoskins contract, that’s no longer than three years and not more than $18 million annually. Furthermore, a bat should be the priority since any available starters will either be expensive or downgrade the existing staff. Finally, given the exceptional talent of the outfield, an infield or designated hitter will likely be the target. While this may be controversial, I think Joc Pederson could be the guy. He hasn't had the best interactions with Milwaukee's fans, but he did slash .275/.393/.515 over 449 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks last year and posted an OPS+ of 151, the highest of any season in his 11-year career. He walks at a 12.2% clip, hits the ball hard, and puts up consistently great numbers against right-handed pitching, posting a .908 OPS last year. Given his limitation to being a designated hitter and somewhat inconsistent numbers, MLBTradeRumors is projecting that he will receive just a two-year, $24 million contract, well within the bounds of our current payroll projections. Another free agent that should be a top priority for the Brewers is Roki Sasaki. Unlike other marquee names, he's cheap, and the total value of his contract is inherently limited by posting rules, so the front office can't use the excuse of him being too expensive this time around. He's said that he wants to sign with a small market team with a great pitching development program, and no team is a better combination of those two qualities than Milwaukee. Do they desperately need rotation help? Of course not, but any team's rotation would be better with Sasaki. Decision #4: Pursue Joc Pederson and Roki Sasaki in free agency Who To Call Up? The upside of rarely extending players or signing them to long-term contracts is the team is a revolving door with plenty of young talent on the fringes of making the big leagues. We saw a few names make their first MLB appearances in 2024 with mixed results, and 2025 brings an even more promising crop of players. If he can get his walks under control, I’d love to see Jacob Misiorowski make some bullpen appearances. Not only would it be a good way for him to get some big-league outs, but I also think his stuff would add legitimate value as a major-league reliever. Because of his elite fastball/slider combo, some scouts have already discussed his possibility of becoming a righty Josh Hader. Like Corbin Burnes before him, shorter outings of three or four batters faced could help him hone his skills while netting the team a few extra wins. Likewise, I would think 2025 would be the Craig Yoho year. After an outstanding year in 2024, he seems ready for a step up in competition from the minor leagues. With him and Misiorowski both candidates to take up some reliever innings, the team can trade away one or two of their existing reliever pieces. I have a hard time advocating for any position players to make their debuts with the same fervor. Tyler Black may get some more at-bats, and as mentioned earlier, some third-base prospects could get some playing time as well, but the farm system seems to skew more heavily toward arm talent. I would be remiss not to acknowledge the team’s #1 prospect, Jeferson Quero. With his entire 2024 missed due to injury, I think he’ll want some time in the minors to find his groove. Even if he does well, he’ll still play behind William Contreras, barring any injury. He may debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to be a core part of the major league team for a few years. Contreras will be a free agent in 2028, so maybe around then, Quero will finally become the guy. Decision #5: Call up Craig Yoho and Jacob Misiorowski to serve as relievers It's hard work coming up with the hypothetical offseason plan for a major league baseball team. It's even harder, given how solid of a roster the Brewers already have. Losing Adames and Williams in the offseason will surely hurt, but their replacements aren't schmucks by any means and could still carry the team to yet another dominant regular season. With some of the other moves listed above, Milwaukee could finally get the deep postseason run they've been searching for all these years. What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Brewers roster and hit the button below! Start Your Payroll Blueprint Now View full article

it's like trying to dig half a hole

The Tigers went from selling at the trade deadline to cracking into the postseason and making some noise. Would they be interested in an elite closer to help get them back to October in 2025? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Why They Need Him By the end of July, it seemed quite likely that the Tigers would spend their October at home. They had a record of 52-57, 10th-best in the American League, and there wasn’t a whole lot of hope for what seemed to be an average roster outside of Tarik Skubal and Riley Greene. As a result, they sold off their most valuable short-term player, Jack Flaherty, to the Dodgers in exchange for two prospects. But just when everyone began writing off their season completely, something really kooky happened. From Aug. 1 through the rest of the season, the Detroit Tigers had the second-best record in baseball, at 34-19. Winning 64% of their games in the final two months of the season allowed them to punch their ticket to the big dance, bumping the division rival Twins out of the picture on the way. The team’s OPS over this span was still just .696, painfully average, but the pitching staff combined for a 2.91 ERA, second-best in MLB. The bullpen was particularly effective, averaging just a 2.71 ERA over the final 286 innings of the year, spread out between several talented arms including Tyler Holton, Sean Guenther, and their closer Jason Foley. Foley has actually been great since his major-league debut in 2021, and will remain under team control until 2028. This will be his first year of arbitration eligibility, so the Tigers could place their faith in him entirely to continue filling the most crucial reliever role. However, if they do decide to more seriously contend for the World Series, Foley likely won’t be the high-leverage guy to get them there. While his 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 28 saves were solid in 2024, his chase rate (25.4%), whiff rate (22.3%), and strikeout rate (18.4%) were all in the bottom quartile of qualified pitchers. He mostly earned his outs through soft contact and had a decent ground ball rate of 47.8% but it’s not consistent enough to compensate for his weaknesses. Furthermore, there are signs that the team lost trust in him, as he made just one appearance in the postseason, giving up three hits and a run in the first game against the Astros. The aforementioned Tyler Holton could be another candidate to take his place, but with just two seasons of work and most of it spent in innings 6-8, he’s unproven in high leverage and still has average whiff and strikeout rates. Thus, it seems like the team is interested in exploring a more impressive option at the back of the bullpen. What They Have to Offer Since they were supposed to be on the cusp of a rebuild, the Tigers have a great farm system with five Top 100 prospects including Max Clark (#7 MLB prospect) and Jackson Jobe (#8)—the latter of whom made his debut this past year and even pitched in the postseason. The front office would likely be hesitant to part with their top talent, but there are plenty of other fair options to choose from. Someone who might be on the cusp of being too pricey (but is still worth a discussion) is Jaden Hamm. Currently the seventh-ranked Tigers prospect, Hamm is a righty starter who made 23 starts with High-A West Michigan and posted a 2.64 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 11.1 K/9. He has a good fastball with 20 inches of induced vertical break, which pairs well with his curveball and a developing changeup. He has also been working to introduce a slider into his arsenal, potentially giving him an extremely potent toolkit. He’d be a great addition to the Brewers system, but would only be on the trade table if Detroit is very much intent on making a deep postseason run in 2025. A cheaper alternative could be left-handed starter Lael Lockhart, the 26th-ranked Tigers prospect. He spent most of the season with Triple-A Toledo and posted a somewhat unsightly 5.32 ERA over 93 innings, but he also had 10.5 K/9. Things were much better over the 28 innings he had in Double-A where he managed a 1.93 ERA. The biggest obstacle seems to be his non-competitive fastball, a pitch that sits in the high 80s and doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He does have an impressive splitter with just 761 rpm on average, along with a decent curveball, but the rest of his arsenal will need refining—a task perfect for the Brewers. They do a great job of helping hurlers find an extra tick or two via mechanical adjustments, too. If Milwaukee wants to pursue a position player prospect, they could take a closer look at Gage Workman, Detroit’s 30th-ranked prospect. He had good numbers at the plate in 2024, slashing .280/.366/.476 with 29 doubles, six triples, and 18 home runs over 556 plate appearances with Triple-A Erie. The big improvement came from abandoning his switch-hitting dreams; he has chosen to bat left-handed exclusively. He split time between third base and shortstop, but with great speed and strong fielding abilities, he seems capable of fulfilling either position, a perfect complement to Joey Ortiz’s similar flexibility in the majors. Let’s face it: the Tigers are not going to fill all their needs in free agency. Since the teardown of their powerhouse early 2010s roster was completed, they’ve slipped lower and lower down the payroll rankings. In 2024, they had a total payroll of just $104 million (per FanGraphs), barely enough to cover today’s marquee free agents. Instead, they’ll seek to develop their roster through trades, and if they do want to shore up their closer role, there isn’t a better trade target out there than Devin Williams. View full article

Both the Brewers and Phillies have had shorter-than-expected postseason runs as of late. Could a Devin deal bring them both closer to the World Series? Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images Why They Need Him There isn’t a lot in common between Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Other than the phonetic parallels between “cheese” and “cheesesteak,” the main shared characteristic between the two cities is how their baseball teams have struggled to translate regular season success into meaningful playoff performances. The Phillies have had back-to-back heartbreaks after making the World Series in 2022 as a Wild Card team. In 2023, they seemed nigh untouchable at home but folded under the pressure of a seven-game Championship Series against the Diamondbacks. In 2024, they won 95 games, the second-most in baseball, but once again lost to an underdog team that barely squeezed itself into the bracket, as the Mets needed just four games to end Red October before the Phillies even made it back to the NLCS. The statistics reflect this lopsided success story. The team had a regular-season OPS of .750 (5th in MLB) and an ERA of 3.85 (11th in MLB). The rotation was especially solid, led by Cy Young finalist Zack Wheeler, and strong seasons from Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez, all of whom are still under team control in 2025. The bullpen picture was a little iffier, a problem that would rear its ugly head at the worst possible time. Hoping to recapture the success he found in 2023, they redeployed José Alvarado as their closer to subpar results, eventually pivoting to Jeff Hoffman. To his credit, Hoffman was pretty good, posting a 2.17 ERA and ten saves, but wanting a more experienced closer, the team acquired Carlos Estévez from the Angels at the deadline. With great backup options like Matt Strahm and even Orion Kerkering, it seemed like the bullpen was set, but the postseason figures told a different story. Phillies relievers combined for a gruesome 11.37 ERA across 12 ⅔ innings during the NLDS. Hoffman (40.50 ERA, 1 ⅓ IP), Alvarado (27.00 ERA, ⅔ IP), and Strahm (18.00 IP, 2 IP) couldn’t get it together, and despite pitching admirably, Estévez blew a crucial save by giving up an epic grand slam to Francisco Lindor in the final game of the series. Devin Williams doesn’t have the greatest postseason record, but with Estévez now a free agent, he could be the fix the team needs to have more pitching stability in later innings. Hoffman’s past two years have been great, and Strahm has shown incredible promise, but Williams would be the only reliever with extensive experience as a closer, giving the bullpen a leg up. What They Have to Offer The Phillies have a decent group of prospects under control, topped off by four names in MLB’s Top 100 ranking. The type of player most closely aligns with Milwaukee’s typical trade haul would be prospects ready to make the big leagues within the next year or two. Furthermore, with a strong nucleus of young position players in the lineup and farm system, they’ll likely hone in on pitchers with high developmental upside. Andrew Painter and Mick Abel fit this description well but are likely too juicy for a rental reliever. Instead, an interesting alternative could be Jean Cabrera (#13 PHI prospect), a right-handed starter who posted a 3.39 ERA over 14 starts with High-A Jersey Shore. He jumped to Double-A Reading towards the end of the season and struggled to find the same success, but he’s just turning 23 and still has plenty of time to figure things out. Scouts note him as having a sinker in the mid-90s and a four-seamer up to 98 mph, two weapons that play well off of his changeup. While likely insufficient by himself, right-handed reliever Wen-Hui Pan might also be worth a look. He posted a 1.29 ERA and 9.4 K/9 over 21 innings with High-A Jersey Shore. Scouts credit his high-velocity fastball that can touch 100 mph with a good arm-side run for his success and an outstanding splitter with very little spin. His inning count is low after missing time due to a broken pinkie he sustained in spring training, but that shouldn’t be a recurring issue. Moisés Chace was a trade piece that sent Gregory Soto to the Orioles at this year’s deadline. After performing well in High-A, the Phillies promoted him to Double-A Reading, where he made four starts. Over the 80 ⅓ innings he pitched this year, he had a 3.59 ERA and a wicked 13.9 K/9. His fastball has a lower velocity than some, but with a great ride and low vertical approach angle, he makes it work in the upper part of the strike zone, akin to Paul Sewald. His unorthodox profile could be yet another fun project for the Brewers' pitching lab to perfect. Outside of pitchers, the Phillies don’t have a lot to offer that would feasibly make the Brewers better. Milwaukee could ask for someone like Otto Kemp, an infielder with solid numbers in Single-A and Double-A, to use in a future trade to acquire someone else, but the pickings are slim otherwise. So what’ll it be for the Phillies: another awesome regular season followed by a bullpen collapse at the eleventh hour or a fresh closer ready to save the city from its rabid fans? With so much talent already on the team and just one primary area of weakness, adding Devin Williams could be like sealing up that one gap in the Death Star and making this roster impregnable. View full article

If the Brewers and Dads do a deal for Devin, how can both teams come away better than before? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Why They Need Him The Padres are fighting ferociously to escape the Dodgers' shadow, and that fight isn't getting any easier. After narrowly missing the playoffs in 2023, outstanding years from new faces helped carry them to 93 wins and a Wild Card berth in 2024. They were arguably the team to come the closest to dethroning Los Angeles in the postseason, taking the Division Series to a full five games although the lineup was completely shut down for the final 21 innings of the matchup. Nonetheless, San Diego was just one win away from overcoming the eventual World Series champions and their most heated rivals. Although they lacked the star power that the Dodgers had, their roster was incredibly well-rounded, not particularly lacking in any one area. The team’s OPS of .745 was sixth in MLB and they managed to lead all teams in batting average, at .263. Pitching-wise, they had a combined ERA of 3.86, 12th in MLB. Michael King and Dylan Cease led the rotation, while the bullpen was held down by Jeremiah Estrada, Adrián Morejón, and their primary closer Robert Suarez. To further bolster an already capable group of relievers, they even acquired Tanner Scott from the Marlins and Jason Adam from the Rays at the trade deadline to serve as their setup men. Looking ahead to 2025, San Diego’s front office has some important conversations to have. Star infielder Ha-Seong Kim is a free agent, and will probably seek greener pastures. On the bright side, Jurickson Profar is a good candidate to return, on the heels of an All-Star season in which he was also beloved in the clubhouse. Furthermore, the loss of Kim may not be the end of the world. After his shoulder surgery in late August sidelined him for the remainder of the regular season and entirety of the postseason, the team did fine with Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, Jake Cronenworth at second base, and Luis Arráez at first. If they choose to abstain from pursuing a replacement for Kim through trade or free agency, a natural step would be to recreate last year’s success by bringing aboard another standout closer, in Devin Williams. In this case, Suarez would likely shift his responsibility to pitching the eighth inning, but they can also share if they’d prefer the harmonious route. With an already great lineup; a rotation with the aforementioned King and Cease joined by veteran Yu Darvish; and a bullpen with the Airbender, the Padres might just have enough to put the other 29 teams on notice—even the defending champions. What They Have to Offer Because of their aggressive trade decisions over the past few years, the Padres have bade adieu to many of their most prized younglings. Of the teams we’ve discussed as potential trade partners so far, the Padres might have the weakest farm system. In fact, unless the Angels plan on competing or the Astros plan on reuniting Josh Hader with his old partner in crime, San Diego has the weakest inventory of any team potentially interested in Williams. But within every bag of trail mix are a few M&Ms, and the Padres’ farm system is no different. Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries are both 18-year-olds in MLB’s Top 100 prospect rankings, but they’re probably staying where they are. In fact, five of the team’s top 10 prospects were in rookie ball, which may be a little too far out for the Brewers’ liking. Bradgley Rodriguez has both a unique first name and a chance to be great, pitching to a 2.64 ERA over 61 ⅓ innings across three levels of the minors from Single-A through Double-A. With a 70-grade fastball (the same grade as Jacob Misiorowski) that sits in the upper 90s and a plus changeup, scouts credited this one-two punch for his quick ascent through the minors. If they want to pursue a starter instead, Braden Nett posted a 3.88 ERA over 19 starts, spending the vast majority of his time with High-A Fort Wayne. He’s noted as having decent carry on his fastball with a high-spin slider and a developing changeup that has yet to separate effectively from his heater. He’s a work in progress with considerable upside, a player profile that Milwaukee loves to take on. Realistic position player options are limited, but first base prospect Romeo Sanabria also shot up through three levels of the minors in 2024, slashing .288/.396/.427 with 30 doubles and 11 home runs over 546 plate appearances. He doesn’t seem to have the pop of a typical first baseman, is limited by his fielding ability and lack of speed, and saw his numbers decline quickly by the time he hit Double-A, but with great on-base skills, there’s a potential for him to be an effective bat somewhere down the line. Because of the relatively low value of the Padres’ prospects, it would make sense for several of them to be bundled together. However, with the team’s core aging quickly and their window of contention closing quicker, the time to compete is now for the Friars—and who better to push them over the top than Devin Williams? View full article

The Red Sox have been to the playoffs just once since their last World Series win in 2018. Could Devin Williams help them return to their winning ways? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Why They Need Him For the first half of the 2024 season, Boston’s pitching staff was a point of strength. Their team ERA of 3.63 was the fifth-best in MLB. While Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford led the rotation, Kenley Jansen’s 2.16 ERA and 19 saves were reminiscent of his tenure in Los Angeles. However, after the Midsummer Classic, Boston’s pitching completely fell off the pace and put up a second-half ERA of 4.63. Every pitcher in the rotation except Houck saw their numbers quickly regress, while the team was desperately trying to claw their way into October, culminating in the team’s third consecutive playoff miss. With an 81-81 record in one of the more competitive divisions in baseball, one might assume that the Red Sox will need a whole lot more than a rental closer to be competitive. That may be true if they want to win the World Series, but the team isn’t that far from having meaningful championship equity. It may not be apparent to those who don't follow the team closely, but their position players are exceptional. In addition to posting a combined OPS of .735 in 2024 (8th in MLB), the team accumulated 49 Defensive Runs Saved (6th in MLB). More established talents like Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers have helped rookies like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaeala shine. Speaking of Duran, in his first full season, he led the league in plate appearances (735), doubles (48), and triples (14) while posting 23 DRS (2nd in MLB) and 8.7 rWAR (5th in MLB). So the missing pieces lie in the pitching staff. As mentioned earlier, there are some names that showed the ability to be great but the lack of sustainability ultimately caused the downfall of the team. The rotation will be helped by Lucas Giolito (who just exercised his $19 million-player option) returning from a season lost to Tommy John surgery, as well as the aforementioned Houck and Crawford having more time to develop over the offseason. On the bullpen side, Jansen is now a free agent and actually began his offseason early after being placed on the injured list, leaving the team before their final series against the Rays. Thus, it would be astonishing if he were to somehow find himself back on the team with a new deal in 2025, so the team will need a new closer. Greg Weissert had a good year and actually finished 16 games, but he picked up just one save. He could be in contention for the job, but with poor strikeout and whiff rates, he doesn’t profile like your ideal closer. If Boston wants a knockout piece to complement a league-leading lineup, there simply isn’t a better trade target than Devin Williams. What They Have to Offer The Red Sox have a solid amount of young talent down on their farm. With a whopping six names on the MLB Top 100 list, there are plenty of options to choose from if Milwaukee decides to do business. That being said, trading a top-of-the-line prospect for a rental closer is not how they prefer to operate, so I wouldn’t expect Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, or any other marquee name packaged in a potential deal—unless the Brewers pony up some more players. Personally, I would target Jhostynxon Garcia as my main prize, simply because he has a top-five all-time name, but with his stellar minor-league results (.892 OPS, 459 PA), his stock is probably at an all-time high. Furthermore, the Brewers are stacked in the outfield, so it’s not a position of priority for the front office. More realistically, the Red Sox would be most willing to part with a prospect who’s a little further out from making the show. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (#17 Boston prospect) is a righty starter who pitched to a 2.91 ERA over 89 ⅔ innings spread across Single-A Salem and High-A Greenville. He’s noted as having good arm-side run and carry on his fastball while sporting a slider in the upper 80s with good depth. Jedixson Paez (#23) had similar numbers this season, although he spent more time in High-A and finished with a 3.17 ERA, helped by his strong command and a decent secondary arsenal consisting of a curveball and changeup. With the existing logjam in Boston’s major-league lineup (exacerbated by the rich talent at the top of the prospect funnel), there’s an opportunity to offload some top position player assets that the Red Sox won’t be able to utilize. Infielder Chase Meidroth (#11) slashed .293/.437/.401 over a full season in Triple-A Worcester at just 22 years old. He would ordinarily be too expensive for this type of deal, but because of the talent in front of him, there could be an outside chance he gets sent off this offseason. Mikey Romero (#16) is a middle infielder who spent most of his season with High-A Greenville, finishing with an .817 OPS over 276 plate appearances. With the free agency of Willy Adames raising questions about the future of the shortstop position in Milwaukee, Romero could be a contingency plan with pretty decent upside. With their most heated rivals making the World Series last season, there’s more fan pressure than ever for Boston’s front office to make some impactful moves this offseason. Compounded with the incumbent talent on the field, the Red Sox are closer to being contenders than you think, and Devin Williams could be the final piece of the puzzle... if the price is right. View full article

he would be one of one like an nft

Now that their World Series hangover is (hopefully) over, a new closer could bring the Rangers back to the postseason. Image courtesy of © David Kohl-Imagn Images Why They Need Him The 2023 season was a great one for Texas. They won it all for the first time in franchise history, driven by a bombastic lineup and their expensive middle infield. They headed into 2024 with a full head of steam, and many figured they would continue their newfound success. Jacob DeGrom was slated to return from the IL by the middle of the season, along with a couple of other high-octane hurlers; rookies Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford were two of the most exciting young talents in the sport; and Adolis García looked ready to cement himself as one of the most imposing outfield hitters around. Unfortunately, every player this side of Corey Seager regressed meaningfully. The lineup fell from a .790 OPS (3rd in MLB) in 2023 to a .686 OPS (23rd in MLB) this year. The pitching staff wasn’t safe, either, as the team’s rotation similarly went from a 3.96 ERA (7th in MLB) to a 4.35 ERA (21st in MLB). With a record of 27-30 by the end of May, they could never find their footing in the division again and fell out of serious postseason contention rather quickly. In fact, their Pythagorean win/loss record (based on run differential) was 75-87, three wins worse than their eventual record of 78-84, indicating that the final result was actually a bit on the lucky side. But the team isn’t done competing. With a top-10 payroll and the core of the team built around the duo of Seager and Marcus Semien, they only have a few more years in their window to remain competitive. Furthermore, they’re losing quite a few players to free agency—mostly pitchers. Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney will all be testing the market, in addition to their two most recent closers, Kirby Yates and Jose Leclerc. Leclerc had been great in 2022 and 2023, posting a 2.96 ERA over 115 ⅔ innings. He wasn’t the main closer in either of those years, but really earned his spot during the team’s World Series run, in which he finished 12 games and earned four saves. Unable to shoulder the burden of pitching higher-leverage innings during the start of last season, his ERA ballooned to 5.18 by the end of May, coinciding with the team’s broader struggles and he ceded his role to Yates. A journeyman, Yates has spent his 10-year career with six different major-league teams. His best season was undoubtedly in 2019, when he pitched to a 1.19 ERA and earned an MLB-leading 41 saves, placing him top-10 in Cy Young Award voting. He was immediately thereafter sidelined by elbow injury and a second Tommy John surgery before finally rediscovering his old form with the Rangers in 2024, posting a 1.17 ERA with 33 saves. Yates was incredible last year, but he’ll be 38 years old by the time 2025 starts and there’s no guarantee that he can stick around at this level for much longer. They could choose to re-sign him for another year and hope that he can repeat his closer success, or they could pursue a younger, more consistent talent in the form of Devin Williams. In a division as competitive as the AL West, it could be the difference between enjoying October baseball from the field or from the cold comfort of their homes. What They Have to Offer Things are not pretty for the future of the franchise, which is all the more reason for the front office to invest in the present. Following the graduation of Langford and Carter, the only MLB Top 100 prospect is infielder Sebastian Walcott (#38), who just cracked Double-A Frisco to end the minor-league season. There are also quite a few top pitching prospects (outside of Kumar Rocker, who is likely off-limits and not really a prospect anymore), like Alejandro Rosario (2.40 ERA over eight starts in High-A Hickory) and Emiliano Teodo (1.98 ERA over 19 starts in Double-A Frisco) who could interest Milwaukee. On the other hand, given their lack of starting pitching depth at the major-league level, these two starters could be called up by Texas sooner rather than later. Further down their top 30 prospects list, you can find two lefty starters in Mitch Bratt (#18 prospect) and Kohl Drake (#21). Bratt tossed a combined 110 ⅓ innings across High-A and Double-A, finishing with a 3.75 ERA for the year. At just 20 years old, he’s advancing quickly, which will likely come with a big bump in his stock value in 2025. Similarly, Drake split time between three levels of the minors from Single-A to Double-A and was successful every step of the way, finishing with a 2.29 ERA over 106 innings. Both players have an ETA of 2025, which could fit the Brewers’ existing MO of targeting major-league-ready talent with plenty of team control. Position player-wise, there isn’t a ton to write home about in pure prospect terms. Infielder Echedry Vargas has strong upside, but is a ways away from the big leagues at just 19 years old in Single-A. Most of their position players are outfielders, a place where Milwaukee has exceptional depth, but someone like Alejandro Osuna (.902 OPS, 265 PA in Double-A) could be worth a closer look. This is where the rubber meets the road. The young arms are interesting, but this system doesn't contain an easy match for Williams's value in a trade. The big-league roster does, though. Would the Rangers give up either Josh Jung or Josh H. Smith to get their much-needed relief ace? Smith and Jung each play third base, primarily. Smith has been moved around more, but as Jung has battled several injuries, he's been able to settle in there. Each has four years of team control remaining, which would be a lot to give up for one year of even a Williams-caliber closer. On the other hand, can the Rangers really make full use of both players? If negotiations between these teams get very far, you can bet Matt Arnold will at least push to get one of the Joshes to round out the infield even as he shifts resources around his roster. The Rangers’ front office has its work cut out. They are undoubtedly prioritizing the reconstruction of their rotation, but if they want to get the best out of the remaining years of their superstars, they’ll need someone to close the show as well. Whether that person can be Williams depends on how badly they want that, and what they're willing to pay. View full article

me rn

This year’s hottest pitching free agent has been earmarked for a big-market team, but could Milwaukee be a dark horse candidate to sign him? Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images For the second year in a row, the most sought-after pitching talent of the offseason is coming from Japan. One year after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed the most lucrative pitcher contract in MLB history, a younger but equally exciting Japanese talent has captured the attention of baseball fans. Roki Sasaki’s talents justify the hype that follows him. His numbers in NPB have been unreal, posting a cumulative 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, and 5.74 K/BB over 394 ⅓ career innings at just 23 years old. He tossed 17 consecutive perfect innings along the way, an unthinkable feat in today’s game. To make him even more appealing, he’ll follow in Shohei Ohtani's footsteps by choosing the path of a typical international amateur free agent prospect rather than an established superstar. Because he’s being posted before turning 25, the team that signs him will pay him a modest signing bonus from the team’s international bonus pool, followed by league minimum before he hits arbitration and follows the traditional free agent service time restrictions. In other words, for the price of an average MLB contract, one lucky team will get a 6’2” power pitcher with a triple-digit fastball, physics-defying splitter, wicked slider, and full team control. This naturally led many to believe he would end up at a big market team, preferably one with a competitive roster and World Series aspirations. To many, he’ll inevitably find himself beside his Samurai Japan teammates Yamamoto and Ohtani on the Dodgers. Still, new information has suggested that he might prefer playing for a sleepier, cozier town like Milwaukee. First of all, the most common reason to sign with a big market team is that they tend to have bigger pockets, but with all of the financial restrictions on their contract, every team will be limited to the same price. Second, sources stated that Sasaki has strongly disliked the pressure of major media markets, namely the Japanese tabloids that have treated him unfairly for the past two years of his stardom. Third, he has emphasized the importance of joining a competitive roster and being part of a strong developmental program. Thus, any small market team with a knack for getting the best out of their arm talent seems to be a strong fit for his preferences. Sound familiar? Milwaukee is far from a podunk village, but the Brewers might as well be located in Yuba compared to Los Angeles and New York. The press is rarely as critical of players and tends to provide a fair analysis of things, satisfying his first condition. Second, and perhaps most importantly, few organizations have excelled at pitching development to the extent the Brewers have. Time and time again, the team has taken undervalued assets and turned things around. Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Jared Koenig, and Bryan Hudson are just a few examples from this season alone. Since 2019, the Brewers’ starters have a combined ERA of 3.87, which is fourth in MLB, and they’ve done so without a single major free-agent pitcher signing, something only the Rays have done better. Few teams marry great pitching development with a laidback media environment, and perhaps none have a better combination than the Brewers. The front office hasn’t been as active in signing Japanese players as some other teams around the league. Still, with these unique conditions and the seemingly unlimited upside of Sasaki, he could be the first player to buck the trend. View full article

i am a big stick believer

The Airbender could be a big upgrade to the Big Apple bullpen as long as he doesn’t mind the city-slicker life. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Why They Need Him The 2024 season was understandably bittersweet for many Yankees fans. On one hand, the one-two punch of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in the lineup was the most imposing offensive duo in the league. They also made it to the World Series for the first time since winning it all in 2009, but what seemed like an immensely promising season ended in calamity. While the 4-1 series record made it seem much more one-sided in favor of the Dodgers, both the first and last game of the series were within New York’s grasp before small mistakes became big losses, dashing their hopes of kickstarting a new dynasty. Many believe that the front office should prioritize re-signing Juan Soto in free agency, which is a fair opinion, but putting your eggs in one basket is never good. Even if they succeed in bringing Soto back, the Yankees would benefit from beefing up their pitching staff, specifically in the form of an elite closer. At first glance, it doesn’t seem like New York has much of a reliever problem. The bullpen combined for a 3.58 ERA and was sixth in MLB, but that doesn’t tell the full story of their closer role in 2024. Clay Holmes was outstanding for the first two months of the season, posting a 1.48 ERA over 24 ⅓ innings by June 1st. Then, things started to come apart at the seams for Holmes, especially in July, when he would blow four saves. By the end of the season, he had been demoted and ended the year with 13 blown saves, tying the franchise record for the most in a single season. Clay Holmes is now a free agent. Luke Weaver, who was selected to fill the closer role for the final portion of the season as well as the entirety of the postseason, had his team option for 2025 picked up. This may seem like the issue has been solved, but there isn’t a whole lot of evidence to suggest that Weaver is the closer of the future, especially if the club hopes to maintain their World Series aspirations. Weaver is a career 4.85 ERA pitcher, and despite a successful 2024, it wouldn’t be too surprising if he found himself regressing while placed under higher expectations. Furthermore, the Yankees already saw positive results from working with a changeup-heavy reliever in Tommy Kahnle (who is also now a free agent), so there’s clearly room in that pitching staff for the kind of arsenal Williams possesses. The only difference is that Williams arguably possesses the best version of that arsenal. What They Have to Offer The Yankees farm system isn’t the strongest, but that’s not to say there isn’t value to be found. In fact, MLB Pipeline ranks New York’s prospects just one spot lower (18th) than Milwaukee’s. They have fallen a few spots, with some of their more notable prospects struggling and losing some favor among scouts, but a few other names have risen to take their spots. First and foremost, there is a better chance of Bernie Brewer making 400+ plate appearances at shortstop in 2025 than there is of Jasson Domínguez somehow being involved in this trade. He’s great, and that’s exactly why New York isn’t going to trade him willy-nilly, especially not for a rental reliever. Spencer Jones is the team’s #2-ranked prospect, but he will undoubtedly fall more than a few spots when those rankings are updated. He posted a .789 OPS over 544 plate appearances in Double-A Somerset this season, which isn’t too heinous except that he also struck out 200 times, more than any other Yankees minor-leaguer in history. Formerly one of the most hyped-up prospects in New York’s system, he hasn’t adapted to higher levels of competition the way the team has hoped, and this may be their last chance to get something for him while his stock still has some semblance of its original value. This could be a chance for the Yankees to rid themselves of some dirty laundry while allowing the Brewers to get the best of a distressed asset. Similarly, Roderick Arias was a 2022 international signing believed to be worth even more than his $4 million signing bonus. However, he hasn't made the same splash many had anticipated in the three years since he first donned the figurative pinstripes. In his most recent full season in Single-A Tampa, he posted a run-of-the-mill .728 OPS over 552 plate appearances and has still struggled immensely facing non-fastballs in the zone. With years ahead of him before he’s big-league ready, he seems like another diamond-in-the-rough candidate who won’t provide any direct value for New York while they’re in this narrow window of World Series contention but could add even more middle infield talent to Milwaukee’s farm. Another name that could be packaged is #12-ranked Cade Smith (not to be confused with Cade Smith of Cleveland fame), a righty starter who posted a 3.47 ERA over 85 ⅔ innings in Single-A Tampa and made the jump to High-A Hudson Valley for his last two outings of the season. #17-ranked Zach Messinger is also a right-handed starter who is slightly further along his baseball journey, throwing 150 innings in Double-A Somerset to the tune of a 3.06 ERA. Because their Top 30 prospects are mostly filled with pitchers, the position player talent is understandably thinner, but 1B/C Rafael Flores had a great year, posting a combined .875 OPS across Double-A and High-A with 31 doubles and 21 home runs. The Yankees are close to earning their 28th World Series title. If they manage to marry a top-tier lineup with unhittable pitching, their annual championship aspirations could finally come to pass. It’s hard to know if Williams is the final piece of the puzzle, but with some potentially transformative prospect talent on the line for Milwaukee, this could be a win-win scenario for both teams. View full article

It’s about time to start shopping the team’s star closer to greener pastures. First stop: Kansas City. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Why They Need Him By all accounts, the Royals exceeded expectations in 2024. After being one of the worst teams in baseball and mustering just 56 wins in 2023, they cobbled together 86 wins. They managed to squeeze into the postseason, overcoming the 91-win Orioles in the Wild Card round before ultimately falling to the Yankees in four games. With the second-largest increase in total attendance year-over-year and a bonafide superstar in the form of Bobby Witt Jr., the club is setting itself up to become perennial playoff contenders for at least the next few years. The biggest change was a major improvement to their pitching staff. In 2023, the team’s combined ERA was 5.17, 28th in MLB. After beefing up the rotation with Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and a full season of Cole Ragans, their combined ERA surged to 3.74, eighth in MLB. Now that Wacha has signed a three-year extension and younger pitchers Brady Singer and Alec Marsh have started to take meaningful steps forward, their starters are some of the best in baseball. The bullpen is a totally different story. The Royals had a bullpen ERA of 4.13, 21st in MLB. Notable World Series ring collector Will Smith was signed to a one-year deal to be their primary closer but was terrible, losing the job after posting a 10.61 ERA in his first month as a Royal. He was replaced by James McArthur, who experienced similar consistency issues and finished the season with a 4.92 ERA. The instability at the back of the bullpen would have spelled the end of their season if not for Lucas Erceg, a trade deadline acquisition from the Athletics. Their other relievers are similarly unremarkable, with the exception of John Schreiber, a serviceable bullpen arm with a 3.66 ERA over 51 ⅔ innings. With a dominant closer like Williams, this team could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. After all, they aren’t losing any core pieces to free agency, and with a lineup that’s only getting better, patching up the critical weaknesses in the bullpen seems like the highest priority item on their next path to October. What They Have to Offer As is typical of many baseball trades, one team forgoes potential future success for present value. There isn’t a player on the active roster that both the Brewers and the Royals would be willing to part with, so it makes sense to look to the farm system instead for a preliminary return package for Williams. The Royals have two MLB Top 100 prospects: 1B Jac Caglianone (#17) and C Blake Mitchell (#51). Both are enticing names but are far from making the big leagues, with their anticipated debuts set for 2026 and 2027, respectively. Additionally, trading a top 100 prospect with full team control for one year of a reliever may not be prudent for the Royals. A closer look at the Royals' top prospects shows a wealth of pitching talent. The Brewers have a respectable arm barn of their own but are notably lacking lefties. Of their 12 pitchers in the top 30, Robert Gasser is the only left-handed hurler. David Shields is an intriguing option if the Brewers want to pursue a younger prospect with a high upside and a lower guarantee. Scouts describe him as having a plus-fastball and slider with excellent athleticism and strong command for a 2024 draft pick. He likely won't be parted with, but Frank Mozzicato (3.45 ERA, 22 starts in High-A) and Noah Cameron (2.32 ERA, nine starts in Triple-A) are other lefty options with strong characteristics that are closer to debuting and likely more expendable. Position player-wise, the Brewers' major-league squad and farm system are well-rounded. Still, there could be some opportunity for depth on the left side of the infield, especially with Willy Adames potentially leaving in free agency. Milwaukee does have Cooper Pratt, and Jesus Made coming down the pike, but in the interim, Nick Loftin posted good enough numbers in Triple-A Omaha to get some major-league playing time last year and could fill the gap. Other high-performing hitters that could add more general depth are outfielder Drew Waters and first baseman Brett Squires. There’s a lot to like about the Royals as a trade partner. They’re close enough to a deep playoff run to be willing to pay a higher price for someone like Williams. Other teams still quite a few pieces away from being contenders will prioritize longer-term options, whereas one year of Williams could make a big difference for Kansas City. He likely won’t come cheap, but it’s up to the Brewers to ensure he doesn’t walk for any less than he’s worth. View full article

what if we got brandon drury instead he seems pretty good(ignore the -2.0 WAR and the other really bad numbers I think they are all typos)

You might have known the team’s defense was good, but did you know it was this good? Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images In addition to being hot stove time, it’s officially award season. Most awards, such as the Cy Young and MVP, will be announced in the coming weeks, but the Gold Glove Award winners have already been named. In addition to the two individual Brewers who received recognition with their trophies, the Brewers also won the National League Team Gold Glove for the second year in a row. Based on the numbers, this result is unsurprising. The Brewers had a combined total of 64 Defensive Runs, most of which came from second base (23), center field (18), and right field (25). They also had well-rounded contributions across the board, with just shortstop and left field lagging behind the league average. The only real competition in the National League was the Dodgers, who had two more DRS than Milwaukee. It can be assumed that the Brewers ultimately took the top spot since they had more positions of excellence. At the same time, the Dodgers were more average, having fewer positions below league average but peaking at 14 DRS from right field. The next closest NL team was the Cubs with 37 DRS, a far cry from the top of the standings. Another figure illustrating the importance of these fielding contributions for the Brewers is the big difference between their ERA and FIP. With a team ERA of 3.65 and a team FIP of 4.20, the Brewers had the largest negative difference between the two numbers of any team in 2024. While this may not have been the result of solid defense, it contributed to the final result and allowed the pitching staff to excel beyond their intrinsic numbers. On an individual level, Brice Turang was also named the National League’s Platinum Glove award winner. He led all infielders in DRS at 22 all NL players with 2.8 dWAR. It caps off what has been a great sophomore campaign for the middle infielder. Because he isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2026, he’ll continue to be a total bargain for the organization. Other players who had strong DRS figures this year were Joey Ortiz at third base (8), Blake Perkins (8) in center field, Sal Frelick in right field (16), and Jackson Chourio in multiple outfield positions (12). Another interesting nugget was Garrett Mitchell’s total of six DRS in center field, impressive considering he played just over 300 innings at the position, one-third of the time spent by other top defenders. With an excess of defensive talent, is this an area of depth from which the Brewers can leverage trade assets? Perhaps, but depending on how much emphasis the front office places on maintaining their defensive prowess, they may keep their best pieces around for the long haul. View full article