Jason Wang

The team already has a surfeit of young talent, so what about signing someone a little older and wiser? Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Age is interpreted a little differently in the world of sports. Since the lifetime of a player’s career is relatively short, the age of 30 serves as a common threshold for considering a player old—archaic, even anachronistic, one might say. Chris Paul, a point guard who is currently 39 years old, is now being lovingly referred to as “unc” by his teammates in San Antonio. Baseball is a little different. Because there's less contact and the game emphasizes its skills instead of sheer athleticism, players can stick around for a little longer. Satchel Paige was 46 years old when he earned his eighth and final All-Star nod in 1953. David Ortiz was 40 years old and in the last year of his career, when he led Major League Baseball in doubles (48), slugging percentage (.620), and OPS (1.021). There’s still a lot of value in older players, especially when it comes to mentoring a group of younger, less experienced faces. Justin Turner crossed the 40-year mark last November, but hasn’t shown any major signs of slowing down just yet. In fact, if there’s a single word to describe Turner, it’s 'consistent'. Since 2013, he has never had an OPS+ under 100 for a full season. He started last year’s campaign with the Blue Jays and found himself with the Mariners at the trade deadline, where he became an integral part of an otherwise lackluster offense. Over 190 plate appearances with Seattle, he posted a 128 OPS+. Time waits for no man, and he is no exception. As he has grown older, his athleticism has steadily waned as his Statcast numbers clearly illustrate. He’s in the bottom decile for baserunning value, bat speed, and sprint speed. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rates are better, but still not great, landing him in the bottom quartile of qualified hitters. At this point, most would hang up the cleats and immediately place an order for podcasting equipment. Instead, Turner has changed his approach to compensate for his weaknesses. He makes excellent swing decisions and has top-tier bat-to-ball skills, whiffing on just 17% of his swings last season. He also kept his strikeout rate below 20%, while maintaining nearly an 11% walk rate, making him a tougher out than one might expect. His spray chart also shows another, more nuanced way that he has changed things up to stay relevant in a young man’s game. He’s a master at optimizing launch angles, continuing to hover around the 17° mark that he’s averaged for his whole big-league career. This gives him just enough lift to hit singles to all fields without the extra juice. One might also notice that, while the singles are evenly distributed across the board, his extra-base hits are far more skewed to one side. This is because, in order to get doubles and homers without simply adding more bat speed, he relies on pulling the ball more frequently. He's akin to Isaac Paredes or the Brewers’ very own Rhys Hoskins. This is more of a commentary on a flaw of xwOBA than a complete analysis of the extra value this provides, but FanGraphs has an outstanding article about how pulled balls consistently outperform their xwOBA, specifically at lower exit velocities, which is exactly what Turner has. This is partially due to the fact that xwOBA doesn't really factor in horizontal launch angle—which is a can of worms in and of itself, but hey, we're having a good time so let's get back to praising Justin Turner. His pull rate of 38.7% in 2024 was the highest of any season in his career. This figure has steadily increased over the past few years, so it seems to be an intentional adjustment to his hitting style rather than a simple statistical anomaly. Okay, so we’ve established that he’s baseball’s ageless warrior. That's great and all, but where does he actually fit on the roster? He has been spending the lion’s share of his time as a designated hitter, a position that’s already quite crowded in Milwaukee, but he had his fair share of reps at first base, as well. Of course, the Brewers already have a first baseman who is getting paid $18 million in 2025, so maybe he wouldn’t fit there either. Alas, there is naught but one more spot for him to go: third base. Yes, the last time it was clearly his primary position was 2021. Yes, if you look at his Savant page his arm strength is in the fifth percentile, which is a problem when one is required to throw across the diamond. Yes, his fielding range is probably quite poor, and he’s probably not as limber as Joey Ortiz or Sal Frelick. But there are reasons to have faith. First of all, I’m skeptical about the arm strength thing, since it only tracks attempts and as a designated hitter/first baseman, how often was he really having to throw with all his might? Second, if Turner has proven anything, it’s that age is just a number. Donovan Solano, who is younger but not by much, spent the most time at third base with the Padres last year and did well enough to sign a new one-year deal with the Mariners. Josh Donaldson was 37 years old when he retired as a Brewer and he was still pretty decent in the hot corner. Turner himself played a whole 33 innings of third base in 2024, so what’s 500-700 more innings of work at the spot? I mean, just check out the sheer athleticism he deploys in this clip to put out noted speedster Giancarlo Stanton: In all seriousness, he did make some athletic plays in the field while at first base, so he’s still got a least a little leather left in his glove: In a total worst-case scenario, he can form a sort of DH/first base rotation with Hoskins, the way that Jake Bauers did last year. Could he really be any more "meh" than Bauers was last year? And look, we dismissed the idea of him being a regular at DH or first, but he could certainly be a complementary player in either or both of those roles. Even at DH, Christian Yelich might need days off here and there. Ditto for Hoskins. And Turner would be injury insurance for several players, both directly and indirectly. Milwaukee has a little more to spend this offseason and Justin Turner would comfortably fit into that budget on a one-year deal. It won’t completely alter the future of the franchise or give the city their long-awaited World Series win (on its own, anyway), but it would make them one step closer to competing and give the fans at least something to look forward to this winter. View full article

I've read enough. It's time to bring back Wade Miley on a long-term deal. Just look how happy this guy was as a Brewer

matt arnold looking at the infield free agent market

I assume you're talking about the trade that brought Yelich to Milwaukee and yes, that was a horrible deal for Miami. It might be the worst decision the front office has made aside from getting rid of the home run sculpture.

Coastal erosion. Paint drying. The Brewers' offseason to date. Quick, find the connection. Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images We’re a little over two months away from Opening Day. For fans of teams like the Dodgers and Yankees, this offseason has seen a flurry of roster activity and hundreds of millions of dollars spent. For Brewers fans, things have seemed more like taking the 18-hour flight from Singapore to New York without looking at anything except the in-flight safety manual. They have made some notable moves, but not many—and we’d really be stretching the definition of “notable” to include some of these: Acquired LHP Nestor Cortes and 2B Caleb Durbin from NYY in exchange for RHP Devin Williams Signed LHP Grant Wolfram Signed RHP Elvin Rodriguez Why, exactly, has it been so boring—and more importantly, will it stay that way? Free Agents Are Never Free Like most years, the biggest moves involve free agent signings and, like most years, Milwaukee showed no interest in taking part in nine-figure bidding wars. The largest-ever contract in team history that wasn’t an extension is still Lorenzo Cain’s five-year, $80-million deal, which was signed in 2018. Thus, given their enduring frugality and the anticipated decrease in broadcasting revenue, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the team has abstained from big spending. They probably have a little more room in the budget but it’s not game-changing money, at least not for an MLB team. This has understandably caused some unrest among team supporters, who can only dream of their beloved Crew shelling out big-market money to acquire top-tier talent. To make matters worse, the NL Central is one of the cheapest divisions in baseball. Per Cot’s Contracts, the projected 2025 payrolls for the cohort are as follows: Note: The Year End 40-man payroll reflects actual salaries paid out to players each year,f whereas the Competitive Balance Tax payroll is calculated using AAV, bonuses, and other benefits. Chicago Cubs Year End 40-man: $179.8 million (13th) Competitive Balance Tax: $197.9 million (14th) St. Louis Cardinals Year End 40-man: $146.6 million (16th) Competitive Balance Tax: $163.3 million (16th) Milwaukee Brewers Year End 40-man: $108.2 million (22nd) Competitive Balance Tax: $134.9 million (21st) Cincinnati Reds Year End 40-man: $104.6 million (24th) Competitive Balance Tax: $125.5 million (24th) Pittsburgh Pirates Year End 40-man: $81.6 million (24th) Competitive Balance Tax: $103.6 million (26th) The Brewers aren’t really incentivized by their peers to spend more, since they’re all on the lower end of spending. The Cubs and Cardinals lead the pack, but given that their attendance numbers are sixth and seventh in MLB respectively, they could probably afford to spend even more than they are. Instead, we have a group of five teams where everyone is waiting for someone else to kick off the spending spree, rather than doing it themselves. Even then, a "spree" in the NL Central is going to feel a lot like "Tuesday" in the AL East. Milwaukee has won the division by wide margins for the past two years, so why work harder if you can work smarter, or cheaper? Like Your Local Florist on Valentine’s Day, It’s Slim Pickings The biggest transactions of late have been centered around starting pitchers and outfielders, areas in which the Brewers already have commendable depth. Free-agent starters have combined for $1.12 billion (and that’s even before Wade Miley signs his inevitable record-breaking contract, with infinite deferrals). Outfielders have been given another $1.01 billion (the lion’s share of this was given to Juan Soto, but still). On the trade front, Kyle Tucker and Garrett Crochet have been the biggest pieces to change uniforms this offseason. You can even throw Jesús Luzardo in there if you’d like. You can never have too much talent in the rotation (as clearly shown by the Dodgers), but it’s just not Milwaukee's main focus right now. The more pressing need lies in the infield, more specifically getting a guy with some pop to fill the shoes of Willy Adames. Unfortunately, that’s difficult to find. Here is my list of free agents that both possess that quality and are affordable enough for the Brewers: Paul DeJong (kinda?) Brendan Rodgers (sorta?) What about a trade? There were conversations about the Cubs moving Nico Hoerner and he compensates for a lack of home runs with plenty of doubles, but Chicago would never do a deal with their direct competition. Nolan Arenado is way too old and expensive. Alec Bohm hit 44 doubles and 15 home runs last year, but his chances of getting moved have plummeted since the Winter Meetings. Long story short, Milwaukee won’t be able to replace a shortstop who hit 33 doubles and 32 home runs on the way to 112 RBIs last year. There’s a chance they can compensate for the lost production with improvements from Rhys Hoskins, who was supposed to be the team’s power bat anyway, but it won’t come from a new face in the lineup. In my humble opinion, the team will eventually get around to doing something, but don’t expect the needle to be moved by a huge margin. Instead, any forward progress will come from two things: maintaining the health of key players and watching young players continue to improve. Before he hit the IL with back problems, Christian Yelich was the best he has been since 2019. He slashed .315/.406/.504 for a 151 OPS+ over the 315 plate appearances he did have, and had he been present for the playoffs, there’s a chance the result would have been very different. On the opposite timeline was Garrett Mitchell, who didn’t return to action until July but ended up slashing .255/.342/.469 for an OPS+ of 123 while playing stellar defense in center field, amassing 6 Defensive Runs Saved. If the Brewers can get both of these guys in the lineup for a whole season, the team’s offensive potential would take a big step forward. Jackson Chourio was one of the National League’s best rookies last year, and he will continue to get better the more time he spends in the big leagues. He was already forced to make an adjustment last year after getting off to a rough start in the first two months, but once June came around, the weather wasn’t the only thing that heated up quickly. Joey Ortiz and Tobias Myers are two other players who will enter their sophomore seasons with high expectations given the success of their rookie years. If the club does end up making a big move, expect it to be closer to the trade deadline, and only if the fight for the NL Central is too close for comfort. Otherwise, it’ll be the same old Brewers’ MO we’ve seen year in and year out. The Brewers front office hard at work completing their first offseason deal View full article

While most known for his time in sunny San Diego, his stint in Milwaukee was a fitting end to a historic career. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images In 2025, the song Hells Bells by AC/DC might be best-known among your average person for being on the Deadpool & Wolverine soundtrack. To others, it’s one of two songs (the other being Enter Sandman by Metallica) that evoke memories of the greatest closers of all time. While Mariano Rivera undoubtedly holds the top spot, Trevor Hoffman is a pretty close second. At 601 career saves, he has 123 more than third-place Lee Smith. Kenley Jansen could take the third spot, but unless he pays several visits to the Fountain of Youth, Hoffman’s place on the statistical podium is safe and sound. After a brief debut with the Marlins, he spent the next 16 years coming out of the bullpen for the Padres where he established his stellar reputation and earned 552 of his saves. By 2009, he was a 41-year-old free agent watching the ownership of his beloved team cut the payroll in half to facilitate a sale. Despite wanting to retire a Friar, Hoffman had to move along. The club offered him just a $4-million contract before withdrawing their offer, forcing him to test the waters elsewhere. Instead, he signed a one-year, $6-million contract with the Brewers. The 2008 campaign had been a down year by his standards, resulting in a 3.77 ERA and just 30 saves. With little reason to believe that he could turn back the clock in his 40s, it was immensely surprising to watch him put up one of his best performances yet, recording a 1.83 ERA (second-lowest for a full season in his career) with 37 saves. He earned his seventh and final All-Star selection for his efforts and at the end of 2009, he signed another one-year, $8-million deal with a mutual option. At this point, Hoffman needed just nine more saves to reach the elusive 600 mark. His status as an all-time great reliever was already settled, and any further accomplishments were just gravy. In fact, since he had just thrown the ball as well as ever, the possibilities seemed endless for a man seemingly unaffected by the march of time. Unfortunately, reality is often disappointing. He struggled immensely in 2010, posting a 5.89 ERA and -0.9 rWAR, the worst single-season numbers he had ever put up. After the first two months, he had accumulated just five saves. Still four saves away from 600, Ken Macha, the manager at the time, decided to move Hoffman to lower-leverage relief innings to try and get his mechanics back on track. After he spent June and July avoiding save situations, he returned to his natural habitat in August. He still struggled but managed to acquire three more saves, bringing him to 599. With just a month of regular season left to play, it really seemed like a dice-toss as to whether he’d be able to drag himself across the finish line. He entered September with a 6.23 ERA and a FIP of 5.40, numbers that would’ve led anyone else to being removed from the roster entirely—let alone taking the ball in save situations. But Trevor Hoffman isn’t anyone else. Furthermore, the Brewers weren’t even close to a playoff spot, so why not aim for history instead? On Sept. 7, he finally got the chance he had been waiting for, entering the game against the Cardinals while up 4-2. Facing the bottom of the St. Louis lineup, he did what he had done best for the past 18 years: dice up major-league hitters. To put a cherry on top, he earned another save against the Mets in his last-ever major-league game, bringing him to a nice prime number in 601. Brewer Fanatic readers know better than most that baseball is a game of statistical obsession. Whether it’s swing adaptability metrics or some nuanced defensive figure made up by some computer program, fans love numbers. Players are no different, and many often chase round-number milestones even if it’s probably not conducive to team success. The most recent example of this was Adam Wainwright’s painstaking chase of his 200th win in his final big-league season, which saw him limp to the end with a 7.40 ERA over 21 starts. With Hoffman, his competitive nature and dogged determination to reach some arbitrary threshold may not have been the best for his overall career numbers, but it gave fans something to cheer for, and it demonstrated one of the subtle aspects of his greatness: that improbable consistency and longevity. He may forever be remembered as a Padre, but his crowning achievement came as a Brewer. View full article

Cool to see a few Mariners greats on here. He had insane aura as well. When Ichiro threw out Terrence Long at third base, he was asked how he did it and he said: ''The ball was hit right to me. Why did he run when I was going to throw him out?'' So many great quotes and moments from an inspiration pioneer and personal hero. My favorite A-Rod rumor is that he had a painting of himself as a centaur. The best part is, because he lies so often, his denial of the fact is meaningless and there's a possibility that it is in fact true. Something that also hampers the King is how bad his team was. The Mariners during his career were so laughably inept that he only just narrowly escaped his perfect game with a 1-0 victory. It's why we never got to see him in the postseason and personally, I think his sheer workload probably shortened his career which, in turn, also hurts his HoF case. He's a great guy who has never taken the game too seriously and I've actually had the chance to meet him. I asked him about throwing the first pitch in the WBC quarterfinal game between the US and his native Venezuela and the way I would describe him is just cool. I hope the voters focus more on his prime and less on his relative lack of longevity/counting stats and I just hope he gets what he deserves.

i think we really need to consider that the cubs lost myles masterbonie this offseason which is a big loss so i think cubs fans need to be worried since the brewers now have both nectar cortes and grant wolfram. also jared koenig changed his number which i think will make him best pitcher of all time next season

With baserunning coach Quintin Berry gone, a veteran voice who has shown an on-field nous for pilfering pillows. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Prior to the 2023 season, MLB instituted several rules to make stealing bases easier, in an attempt to make the game more action-packed and appealing to Gen-Z viewers with a TikTok attention span (it's me, I'm the Gen-Z viewer). The league is still far from finding the next Rickey Henderson, but this has allowed players like Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. to add immense value through their speed and aggressiveness. The Brewers themselves have Brice Turang, who has accumulated 88 stolen bases over the past two years. Given their financial limitations, Milwaukee probably won’t sign a free agent of high-profile batting or defensive value, but there are two options whose ability to capitalize on this re-emphasized aspect of the game may make them hidden gems. Tommy Pham is a journeyman who has been on seven different teams in the past three years. It’s not really his fault, as he was traded several times and even made it to the World Series with the Diamondbacks in 2023. He’s an 11-year big-league veteran, and despite his offensive and defensive numbers gradually regressing with age, he’s still making the most out of the tools he has left. He isn’t blazingly fast and only stole seven bases in 2024, but when looking at the Lead Distance Gained leaderboards, he’s still pretty good for a 36-year old. Over the past two seasons, Pham gained an average of 14.5 feet on his steal attempts between a pitcher’s start of delivery and his release, getting terrific jumps. But what does this really measure? A quick peek at Baseball Savant shows that the leaders in this category predominantly generate below-average stolen base value. This is because, like every statistic in baseball, it only tells one part of the story. For example, Jorge Soler has an even better average Lead Distance Gained over the past two years than Pham (at 18.4 feet), but his Net Bases Gained when it comes to stolen bases is -13 despite never being caught stealing. The likely story is that these players will only seize the opportunity in the rare event that they get great leads and clear paths to steal. This is often done when the cost of creating an out is low (someone is getting blown out), which gives them a much lower sample size of lead distance data. The best example of this anomalous statistical profile is Elías Díaz, who leads the pack with an outstanding Lead Distance Gained of 40.8 feet. However, a closer look shows that it's the result of one attempt that happened in a dominant win against the White Sox in 2023, so I'm not sure if it really supports the case that he’s the greatest base stealer of our time. Unlike Soler and Díaz, Pham is aggressive, attempting steals at a 1.6% clip when he gets a chance. This opens the door to creating outs more frequently but also results in more bases gained, making him a net-positive contributor on the basepaths despite his average speed. A more refined version of Pham is Whit Merrifield. He had his struggles at the plate and in the infield last year, but he found some success pilfering bags, accumulating 17 of them in total. (Fun fact: he had two more stolen bases than RBIs, a rare feat.) He shares Pham’s penchant for getting a great lead while the pitcher is trying to do his job, also posting a Lead Distance Gained of 14.5 feet, but he is even more aggressive and successful. He attempted stolen bases at a 2.8% rate and has a Net Bases Gained figure of 13, on par with the quick youth of today’s game like Johan Rojas and Zach Neto. Both Pham and Merrifield have their fair share of weaknesses, and it wouldn’t make sense to have both of them on a roster as talented as the Brewers’. However, picking one of these free agents to help share the subtle nuances of aggressive baserunning with the young, speedy core could be a meaningful way to upgrade the roster in a non-obvious (and, most importantly, affordable) way. Just think about what Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, and Turang could do if they were given the green light to live out their kleptomaniac desires. It’s not usually what one might be considering when thinking of free-agent acquisitions, but getting one of these two guys could just be the “steal” of the offseason. View full article

For the 38-year old southpaw, it ain’t over until it’s over. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images Wade Miley has been a big-league journeyman. Over the 14 years he has spent in the majors, he has been on eight different teams. His longest stint was with the Diamondbacks, who picked him in the first round of the 2008 MLB Draft, but since leaving Arizona in 2015, he’s never managed to set down roots. The organization with which he has spent the second-most time is actually the Milwaukee Brewers. Sadly, his two stints with the club were both marred by injuries. He signed a minor-league deal with the Crew in 2018, and as quickly as he was called up, he hit the 60-day injured list with an oblique strain. After returning to action in July, he went on to post a 2.57 ERA over 80 ⅔ innings. More importantly, he made four postseason starts, with outstanding results. After bouncing around the league for a few years, Miley returned to Milwaukee in 2023 on another one-year deal and put up excellent numbers again, pitching to a 3.14 ERA over 120 ⅓ innings. His K/9 rate of just 5.9 was the lowest for a single season with more than 90 innings pitched, but who cares about the details? He still missed time in 2023, due to a strain of his serratus posterior, an uncommon baseball injury that affects a group of back muscles. His poor injury luck only got worse in 2024, as he was limited to just seven innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery to address left elbow inflammation. Now it’s 2025. Miley's option was declined; he's been relegated to free agency for the offseason. Despite the recurring health issues, he expressed his burning desire to return to professional baseball in a phone interview with Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. More importantly, he’s got his sights set on one team, specifically. But if he does come back to the Brewers, how would that realistically work? Is there any way that the team could spare a roster spot for him and have him suit up for the fourth year? Like a diamond purchased at your local mall kiosk, Miley has many flaws. He has never thrown particularly hard, relative to other big leaguers. His cutter sits in the high 80s, and his four-seam fastball just barely gets across the 90-mph mark on average. We’ve already talked about his recurring injury problems (one more trip to the 60-day IL and he’ll have enough stamps on his card for a free drink from Starbucks). Even when he’s healthy, he’s often limited to shorter outings and has thrown more than 125 innings just once in the past five seasons. But no one sticks around the bigs for 14 years without a few tricks up their sleeve. Without the firepower of the Gen-Z pitchers in today’s league, he makes his bones by minimizing hard contact. If we take a closer look at his 2023, we can see that his strikeout (16.1%) and whiff (19.1%) rates were in the bottom decile of qualified pitchers. However, his hard-hit rate (31.3%) and average exit velocity (87.3 mph) were excellent. In fact, Miley has never had an average EV greater than 90 mph in any season since 2015 (when Statcast was first introduced). When paired with the Crew's elite defense, he has the potential to outperform expectations every time he takes the mound. So what we have is a pitcher who can’t throw hard, can’t throw very many pitches, can’t miss bats, and can’t punch guys out. Maybe that ultimately disqualifies him from the rotation. But what about a bullpen role? The Brewers have had success in the past with deploying long relievers, something rarely seen in today’s game, and the last man to fill that spot was Bryse Wilson. Now that he’s gone, it wouldn’t be totally out of the question for Miley to fill that now-vacant spot. In fact, the club already picked up someone in the Rule 5 Draft who profiles similarly. It's a tough situation, though, because one of the challenges of being a reliever is the unpredictability of the schedule—which can disproportionately affect anyone already vulnerable to certain injuries. Miley probably needs the routine of being part of a rotation, but his days of taking the ball every five days and delivering five-plus innings at the major-league level are over. His days of pitching in the big leagues at all might also be done, but there’s a slim chance we’ll see him again. There aren’t many teams that would take the risk of signing him and seeing what he's still capable of, but Milwaukee could be the perfect place for this pitching nomad to settle down and finish with some stability. It would have to be a minor-league deal, to give the team more roster flexibility for the balance of the offseason and the first part of spring training, but an incentive-laden deal that still gives Miley a chance to earn a few million dollars if things pan out would make sense on both sides. View full article

We’re sliding into the new year by wrapping up our review of the top articles from 2024. Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images #5: Let's Take A Peek At The 2025 Milwaukee Brewers: What Will The Roster Look Like? Matt Breen August 18th With six more weeks left in the season, Matt Breen was already looking ahead to the future. He made several predictions about how the front office would steer the offseason and whether it would be reasonable to expect any major changes. For the most part, many of his predictions ended up coming true but when it comes to the Brewers, one can simply posit that they will "be kinda cheap" and be right most of the time. There are still a few more months before Opening Day comes around so there’s time for Breen to be proven wrong (and I'm sure most fans are still holding out hope), but so far he has read the organization like a book. #4: An Underperforming Rhys Hoskins All But Ensures He’ll Be A Milwaukee Brewer in 2025 Matt Breen September 11th After 517 plate appearances, Milwaukee fans knew that the Rhys Hoskins they had seen in 2024 was not the one they had hoped for when he was originally signed as the team's marquee free agent of the offseason. It was the worst year of his career in nearly every metric and led to him being slightly below a replacement-level player. To make matters worse, the structure of his contract included a player option heading into 2025 meaning that fans may be in for more of the same lackluster on-field performance. There’s a chance he turns it around but his expectations have fallen considerably from where they were when he joined the team. #3: Brewers' Opening Day Roster Starts Taking Shape After Latest Round of Cuts Jack Stern March 19th As spring training drew to a close, the Brewers slowly but surely started to finalize their big league roster. Several players were optioned to Triple-A Nashville while others were reassigned to minor league camp. Around this time, Pat Murphy also decided on the Opening Day starter and a big decision was made regarding where Jackson Chourio would begin his year. There was still some uncertainty about which infielders would get the lion’s share of starts for the Brewers at certain positions and many of the players that were sent down to the minors ultimately ended up as major contributors to the major league squad but it was a good preview of what was to come in 2024. #2: Brewers Clearing House: Colin Rea Put On Waivers, Owen Miller Traded, Wade Miley & Gary Sanchez Options Declined Jason Wang November 2 Goodbyes are never easy, especially when so many of them happen at once. After the conclusion of the World Series, Milwaukee quickly got to work cleaning out their closet, cutting ties with some of the lower performers to clear roster space for future talent. Given the importance of these moves, it made sense that Brewer Fanatic’s brightest, tallest, and most eloquent writer of all time was given the responsibility of covering this topic. On the bright side, there’s a chance that some goodbyes may actually end up being more akin to “see you laters.” Wade Miley has expressed interest in signing a minor league deal with the Brewers in lieu of retirement and I still hold out hope that Colin Rea will be back in some capacity. He has been an effective arm at the back of the rotation over the past two years and although he may not have been worth the $5.5 million club option he originally had, who’s to say he won’t be able to agree on a new deal with the organization? It may be a pipe dream but life without dreaming is a life without meaning. #1: Projecting the Brewers' 2024 Opening Day Roster, v 2.0 Matthew Trueblood February 9th In December 2023, Matt Trueblood decided to try and predict what the Opening Day roster would look like three months in advance. Conveniently, Milwaukee went on to make three major trades after this original set of forecasts, sending Corbin Burnes, Tyrone Taylor, and Adrian Houser to new homes. This threw enough of a wrench in things for Matt to write a whole new article rather than sneakily edit the original piece while no one was looking. Little did he know just how many freak injuries the team would have to deal with, completely altering the state of the starting rotation and even shaking up the bullpen following Devin Williams being placed on the IL before the start of the major league season. Still, if you want to learn a little more about setting a lineup so you can finally beat your friend Dave in next year’s Fantasy Baseball league, give the piece a read. View full article

We’re rounding third in our retrospective on the most popular Brewer Fanatic content of the year. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images #10: Hear Me Out: The Brewers Should Sign Rowdy Tellez for the Last Game of the Season Davy Andrews September 27th In a caretaker-exclusive piece, Davy Andrews made a compelling argument to bring back Rowdy Tellez after he was unceremoniously designated for assignment by the Pirates. This wasn’t your usual sabermetric analysis driven by nerdy numbers like xwOBA and wRAA. If it had been, it would’ve made Davy’s job a little harder as Tellez had a tough 2024 and was below replacement level. Instead, it took a more human approach and talked about Tellez coming up just four plate appearances short of cashing in on a $200,000 bonus outlined in his contract. Despite Pittsburgh denying that his early release was to save them a few dollars, it all seemed a little too fishy for that to be true. Could Tellez have saved the Brewers from yet another first-round postseason exit? You’ll have to read to find out. #9: The Brewers' Starting Rotation, in the Thoughts and Words of Pat Murphy Matthew Trueblood March 4th Ah yes, early March. Before any of the freak injuries and 60-day IL stints, there was a lot of hope placed on a Brewers’ rotation that had neither Corbin Burnes nor Brandon Woodruff for the first time in years. Wade Miley was already teetering on injury by this point but other players like Joe Ross, DL Hall, Jakob Junis, and Robert Gasser were bursting with potential. Pretty much every name listed in the article eventually saw some meaningful action in the big leagues even if many of their seasons were cut short by health issues. If you want a glimpse into how the complex mind of a baseball veteran with 30 years of coaching under his belt thinks about setting up his pitching staff, this is the article for you. #8: Devin Williams May Have Thrown His Last Pitch For The Milwaukee Brewers Jake McKibbin October 7th Despite being on easy street for the whole season, winning the division, and securing their spot in the playoffs, the Brewers once again fell short when it mattered most. In one of the biggest moments of his career thus far, Devin Williams folded under the pressure, conceding four earned runs and blowing an elimination game against the Mets. It would end up being the last pitch he’d throw for the team before being traded to the Yankees this offseason. It was an unfortunate way to conclude his time in Milwaukee but like that one guy who wrote Cat in the Hat once said: don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened. #7: A New Opportunity Has Arisen for the Brewers to Get Better, and They Might Take It Matthew Trueblood March 12th Just as spring training was starting to kick off, there was a whirlwind of activity in San Francisco. The Giants had just signed Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman, leading to the release of J.D. Davis just before the team agreed to his new $6.9 million salary imposed in arbitration. Underhanded business tactics aside, Davis was a potential signing for the Brewers to address their third base position, which was still in flux at the time. Matt went on to suggest a potential move that would've sent Willy Adames to the Dodgers in exchange for a valuable pitching prospect, creating a sort of double move that would have been oh-so-characteristic of Milwaukee’s crafty front office. #6: What Do the Differences in Corbin Burnes With Orioles Tell Us About the Brewers? Matthew Trueblood June 7th After Mr. Burnes was sent packing to a city with slightly better seafood, his diet wasn’t the only thing that began to change. With a new team comes a new coaching staff and the difference in Corbin’s pitching since landing in Baltimore showed just how many different ways there are to utilize an arm as talented as his. He was ultimately effective but saw a decrease in his strikeout rate in exchange for more soft contact. To no one's surprise, Burnes had an outstanding year with the Orioles. He brought back a bounty of excellent prospects in return and in many ways, both teams involved got exactly what they were looking for, a rare win-win scenario in the world of baseball trades. View full article

We continue the countdown to the new year by counting down Brewer Fanatic’s own most popular content from 2024. Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images #15: Did You See the Ken Rosenthal Report About a Willy Adames Trade? Good. Now: Forget It. Matthew Trueblood June 13th Ken Rosenthal has been around baseball for a long time. In addition to being a field reporter, he’s also known for his fashionable bow ties and staggering stature. Despite years of involvement with the sport, even he is susceptible to the occasional suspect opinion. Around the 2024 trade deadline, he suggested that the Brewers trade Willy Adames with somewhat shaky logic, essentially suggesting that Milwaukee’s rotation wouldn’t be able to make it through the season without swapping him for a healthy starter. The Brewers actually made out okay, winning the NL Central once again by a margin of ten games and securing their sixth playoff berth in the past seven years. Rosenthal was absolutely correct in predicting that Adames would walk in free agency, but good ol’ Matt Trueblood had some good counterpoints to his idea that he would be moved any sooner than he had to. #14: 5 Last-Second Deals the Brewers Can Make Before Spring Training Ryan Pollak January 31st While the state of Wisconsin was still in the process of defrosting, Ryan Pollak just couldn’t wait for the stove to heat up and spent some time considering a handful of moves that could bolster the roster before the team even touched down in Arizona. There were quite a few questions surrounding third base at the beginning of the season as well as your usual pitching uncertainty and Pollak took it upon himself to do some personal scouting for the Brewers at their preferred price: free.99. While none of these deals ultimately came to fruition, it's interesting to look back on these players and think what could have happened if any of them actually had gone through. #13: Are Tyler Black and Joey Wiemer Pushing For Major-League Promotions? Jake McKibbin April 10th After just two weeks of major league baseball, Jake McKibbin was already looking at the minor leagues to assess who was on the cusp of making it to the next level. While Joey Wiemer had already used up all of his rookie eligibility, Tyler Black was yet to receive his first shot at the show and both players started the season in Triple-A Nashville. Black would end up making his debut at the end of April to unimpressive results but will likely get another chance in 2025 if he makes the necessary adjustments to handle big league pitching. Wiemer would return to Milwaukee around the same time as Black but would later be traded to the Reds in the deal that brought Frankie Montas to the Brewers. #12: The Curious Case of Brice Turang Kyle Ginsbach February 27th The only thing I love more than a Sunday Fun-Day Bundle at American Family Field is Brice Turang. The bundle is a close second (getting four tickets, hot dogs, sodas, and parking for $62 is a steal in this economy) but he has been on my radar since debuting in 2023, mostly because I loved saying “it’s Turang time.” Of course, before the season started, all fans knew about him was that his offense was on the same level as Tim Anderson (?) and he was by no means guaranteed to keep his spot on the big league roster. Kyle Ginsbach took a closer peek at exactly what he was struggling with and discussed what he needed to do to get back on track. Turang must have listened since he went to have a breakout year in 2024, collecting 4.7 rWAR and winning a Platinum Glove for his stellar defensive efforts. #11: Brewers Have a Positional Dilemma for Two Young Stars in the Outfield Matthew Trueblood January 30th The Brewers are blessed with two things: having the best logo in baseball and having incredible depth in the outfield. Before we got a full taste of exactly what phenom prospect Jackson Chourio would be able to accomplish at the highest level, Matthew Trueblood pondered the question of how best to utilize him and Sal Frelick alongside the team’s more veteran players. It’s a question that still remains slightly open as Milwaukee still has all of their top outfield talent from last year but we now have more information on what each player can do. Will that change how they’re set up in the future? We’ll just have to wait and see. View full article

i too remember being in second grade

2022 was the first year I started watching baseball and I remember seeing a clip of Nestor Cortes doing his little Johnny Cueto-esque delivery and I was like "wow this guy must be really good." Then I found out he only threw in the low-90s and I was like "wow this guy must be really bad." Then I found out he had a 2.44 ERA and had 22 RV on his 4S (no idea what that meant back then but figured it was good) and got super confused. I'm really excited to see what the Brewers do with Cortes to maximize the effectiveness of his four-seam/cutter. It won't be the same as Burnes as you mentioned above since he just doesn't have the juice but they'll definitely do something.

You’ve probably seen the red and blue numbers on Baseball Savant before, but do you know what they entail? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Baseball Savant is full of funny colors and statistics, and the website gets a little more crowded every year as more and more niche information becomes publicly accessible. Some information is self-explanatory, while other information is anything but. For example, when we look at Freddy Peralta’s page, we see this: On the left, you see his high-level numbers from the past few seasons, a good overview of his recent performance. These figures can easily be found on other sites like Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, so it’s not typically what Savant is used for, but it still provides a necessary baseline for analyzing the rest of his profile. On the right is a relatively new addition that illustrates the movement and usage for every weapon in his arsenal, along with his arm angle. Interpreting it can take a little getting used to, but once you’re familiar with general ranges for pitch movement, you can more easily spot which fastballs have more ride, which sliders are more like sweepers, and so on and so forth. In the middle are the sliders that all armchair GMs (myself included) know and love. They contain percentile numbers for key qualities like average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and ground-ball rate. This gives users a normalized view of how a particular metric fits in with the rest of the league. While the bottom section covers more granular details, the top section labeled Value contains four sliders, each measuring something called “run value.” It’s pretty easy to understand that more run value is “better,” but how is that even calculated—and is it really that simple? The website’s own definition of the metric does little to clear up the uncertainty, but it also links to an old blog post by Tom Tango, a pseudonym for a sabermetrician whose real name isn’t publicly known despite him having an outsized impact on the analytics community. In this post, he explains that run value is essentially the cumulative sum of every pitch’s value from the run expectancy matrix. These values from the run expectancy matrix can be interpreted as the average number of runs expected to score from a given base-out state. For hitters, it looks something like this (the matrix for pitchers is the same but inverted): Based on these broad-strokes descriptions, we have evidence to support our original conclusion that more run value is “better”—akin to other counting stats, like strikeouts. However, keen-eyed Savant users will notice some discrepancy between the run value of a specific pitch and its other numbers. Despite Peralta's slider having significantly less run value than his fastball, it has a lower batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA while having better whiff and strikeout rates. How can both stories be true? It’s important to remember that while many numbers may seem related, they’re calculated very differently. A simple example of this is batting average and on-base percentage. One might assume both stats to have the same denominator, but they don’t, since there’s a slight difference between at-bats and plate appearances. In this case, batting average and slugging percentage, strikeout rate and wOBA only consider the plate appearances that end on that pitch. We want to know the value of each individual pitch, even if it isn’t the last one thrown in a given plate appearance, which is where run value comes in. What we do know is that when his sliders are good, they’re really good, often resulting in swings and misses, punchouts, or soft contact, but what about the other kind? The only way for Peralta’s slider to impact his run value negatively without also dragging down the other numbers listed above would be throwing a lot of balls. If you look at the run expectancy matrix again, you can see that getting into hitter-friendly counts like 2-0 and 3-0 increases the probability that a run will score that inning and thus adversely affects the metric for the pitcher. This makes sense, as getting behind in counts gives pitchers less wiggle room and results in more walks and hittable pitches. Consider this hypothetical possibility. Against the first batter of the season, Freddy Peralta throws three consecutive sliders, each resulting in a ball. Now down 3-0, he throws yet another slider that ends up as a groundout. Now let’s assume he repeats this several more times with a few walks mixed in, and you can see how he could have a perfect batting average of .000, while tanking the run value on his slider. Along with the other data, run value gives us a more complete understanding of a given pitch’s true effectiveness. This real-life example of Freddy Peralta’s slider is fairly accurate. It’s great when commanded well, but too often, it ends up as a waste pitch, reducing its overall contributions to his game. Part of this is the result of how much he toys with the shape of the pitch, and part of it is the simple difficulty of being a big-league pitcher. Either way, it’s a clear roadblock to him reaching the peak of his potential. With our new knowledge, we can attempt to ascertain what’s going on with the rest of his arsenal, as well. His fastball sometimes gets hit hard and isn’t missing as many bats as he may like, but it’s still getting him more strikes than anything else in the repertoire. His changeup gives him the most bang for his buck, as it combines the best qualities of both his fastball and his slider: infrequent waste pitches and strong results on balls in play. His usage ticked up a bit from 2023 to 2024, and we may see it even more frequently next year. Every statistic in baseball was created to answer some specific question. Unfortunately, the path to answer one question often opens up the door to two more, so never over-index on just one fact or figure. Instead, acknowledge that every number is incomplete and has its own strengths and weaknesses. Run value may seem like a way to quickly judge the effectiveness of a pitch, but it’s far more layered than that. It’s a useful tool on the ol’ sabermetric belt, but it shouldn’t be the only one you bring to work. View full article