Jason Wang

The Brewers have a knack for turning lemons into lemonade, but will it all soon turn sour? Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-Imagn Images I recently examined Milwaukee’s pitching staff and how, despite their strong numbers, there was a lack of intrinsic “stuff.” In a similar vein, I wrote another article in the middle of last season discussing the surprising number of pitchers on the team with a big difference between their FIPs and ERAs and whether that meant the team’s success was more fantasy than reality. Both are unique characteristics of the Brewers that seem to contradict much of what we know about modern-day analytics. Still, it’s also a testament to the sheer complexity of baseball. Ultimately, it leads to the broader question of whether the team can maintain their pitching productivity while still going against the grain. To their credit, it’s not like they’re intentionally seeking out players with funky arm slots and awkward deliveries over those who can throw hard and spin the ball well. Instead, they do better than most teams by working with what they have. Every pitcher has a unique arsenal, mechanics, delivery, and skillset. Rather than over-indexing on those with apparent qualities, Milwaukee has been excellent at maximizing a pitcher’s strengths rather than trying to fit a square peg into a Wisconsin-shaped hole. Take Bryse Wilson, for example. After being drafted by the Braves in 2016, he made his big-league debut in 2018 and spent the next five seasons as a struggling starter with a 5.54 ERA over 43 starts. After arriving in Milwaukee, he became a long reliever, using his above-average durability but minimizing the downsides of his relatively shallow arsenal. In 2023, he posted a 2.58 ERA over 76 ⅔ innings and was an outstanding bullpen piece. He regressed to a 4.04 ERA in 2024 after he was slotted into the rotation to fill an injury gap. When entering the game in relief, he still had a perfectly serviceable 3.75 ERA. Colin Rea is another instance of this development practice. Before 2023, he had bounced around between several MLB and NPB organizations, never throwing more than 115 innings in a full season outside the minors. When he was signed and tasked with holding down the back of the rotation, he leaned more heavily on a sinker/cutter duo over a traditional four-seam fastball. Also, he introduced a sweeper as his main breaking ball offering. By remaining tricksy and relying on command, his lack of velocity and physics-defying movement didn’t prevent him from being a full-time big-league starter. At the same time, Milwaukee has also had its fair share of obviously talented arms in recent years. Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader were homegrown talents (yes, Hader technically was drafted by the Orioles and traded to the Astros, but you get my point) who were highly sought-after by many teams. But an organization can’t depend on exceptional pitching talent to consistently fall into their laps. Especially with the increased prevalence of arm injuries and the Brewers’ dislike of long-term contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, it would be impossible for the organization to simply draft or buy their way to consistent success on the mound. As much as people may try, it will likely never be possible to define the caliber of a baseball player solely by a number or set of numbers, especially if those numbers simply measure one aspect of what is inherently a multidimensional game. Even with fine-tuning and multiple iterations, statistics like Stuff+, FIP, and WAR do not capture all a given pitcher can do. It’s true that the game is generally skewing more towards superhuman velocity and spin rates, but don’t be fooled by all the bells and whistles. A pitcher’s job is to get outs; whether they do that by throwing gas or just being a little mischievous doesn’t matter much at the end of the day. Thus far, Milwaukee has done a bang-up job of finding the best use for each of their arms, and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of reason they can’t keep it up for the foreseeable future. View full article

The Brewers have some of the best pitchers in the sport, but you might not know that from their advanced pitch-modeling metrics. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Baseball is a numbers game. For hitters, most figures are pretty self-explanatory. Batting average, on-base-plus-slugging, chase rate, and strikeout rate have names that paint a pretty clear picture as to what they measure and how they’re calculated. Pitchers, on the other hand, are a little more difficult to assess. Sure, you can measure objective numbers like velocity, spin rate, and movement, but two pitches with similar numbers can have extremely different results. For example, let’s compare the four-seam fastballs of Tobias Myers and Chris Flexen: Fastball Velocity Fastball Spin Fastball Whiff Rate Fastball Run Value MIL Tobias Myers 92.9 mph 2,223 RPM 19.4% 6 CHW Chris Flexen 91.3 mph 2,144 RPM 13.2% -6 Despite being pretty close in velocity and spin, Myers was able to generate significantly more run value with his four-seam fastball than Flexen. This is a bit of an unfair comparison, and I’m conveniently glossing over several other important factors, but this should be sufficient to show you that just looking at surface-level numbers—even the kind we drooled over as recently as 10 years ago—isn’t nearly enough to tell the whole story. To try and fix this problem, the best minds in baseball came up with a very specific, crystal-clear term that left nothing up to the imagination: Stuff. You’ve likely heard this term tossed around before, and maybe you just assumed it was a general term for a pitcher having impressive velocity and movement on his pitches. Sometimes, of course, it is, but there’s actually a more specific definition. In essence, it’s a catch-all word for a pitcher being good at his job. This brings us back to the Brewers. After having a collective 3.65 ERA in 2024, fifth-best in MLB, one might assume the team’s “Stuff” is off the charts, since the pitchers were all pretty good at their jobs. The opposite is a little closer to reality. Here is a quick primer on how Stuff+ is measured, and the table below displays the 2024 Stuff+ numbers of the potential arms in Milwaukee’s 2025 rotation: Aaron Ashby 113 Brandon Woodruff 106* Nestor Cortes 105 Aaron Civale 104 Freddy Peralta 99 Tobias Myers 97 DL Hall 87 *Data from 2023 since Brandon Woodruff did not pitch in 2024 There are a couple of key takeaways here. First, Ashby leads the pack by a decent margin, but his lack of arsenal depth means he’ll probably be better in the bullpen, especially given how well he did as a reliever last season. Second, Nestor Cortes may be a surprising appearance, but his sinker had a Stuff+ figure of 119 last year. He primarily depends on a four-seam/cutter combination, but Milwaukee could have him increase his usage of his sinker and his slider, which had a Stuff+ of 109. Third, this set of numbers seems to sell the pitching staff pretty short. In fact, as a team, Brewers starters had a cumulative Stuff+ of just 97, placing them 17th in MLB. Upon further consideration, this actually makes sense. Without Corbin Burnes or Woodruff and with plenty of injuries to go around, Milwaukee’s starters relied more on clever tricks than they did on intrinsic pitch quality. Furthermore, Stuff+ doesn’t always translate to on-field success. Nick Mears had a Stuff+ of 119 while pitching for the Brewers, but only managed a 7.30 ERA and 6.25 FIP for the team. Will the Brewers be getting access to more of this so-called “Stuff” anytime soon? Well, the return of Woodruff should help their case, assuming he isn’t dragged down by any long-term side effects from injury. If Jacob Misiorowski debuts, his 70-grade fastball/slider combo should also measure well, but he has some work to do in rounding out the rest of his arsenal before he’s ready to be a big-league starter. Last but not least, we have Robert Gasser. He probably won’t be back until the back half of 2025 at the absolute earliest, but the lefty had an impressive 118 Stuff+ on his slider and is one of the team’s top pitching prospects for a reason. All in all, what the Brewers have done best with their arm talent is to get value for money. Any (rich team's) front office can cough up nine figures for pitchers who are essentially finished products, but it takes a really savvy organization to maximize the potential of what they’ve already got. Whether this ability to outperform their statistical expectations is anything more than a temporary trend is yet to be seen, but for now, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. View full article

It's definitely a thin market for free agent third basemen. In the past, Kiké Hernández has typically been described as a "vibes guy" with, as you mentioned, a strong clutch gene but I think he has the potential to be a lot more. I definitely think he has more upside than Yoán Moncada even with all of his musical talent.

To Kiké Hernández, a pair of glasses has been more beneficial than any performance-enhancing drug on the market. Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images In my humble opinion, the most interesting part of baseball isn’t the history, analytics, or teams' ability to sell beer and hot dogs at exorbitant markups. Instead, what initially brought me to the sport and has kept me around has been the kooky storylines. A few come up every year, and my favorite from the 2024 season has been Kiké Hernández's realization that he has astigmatism, more or less by accident. After more than 3,500 major league plate appearances and a career OPS+ of 93, he was casually chatting with fellow Puerto Rican Martín Maldonado at the start of the season as countrymen often do. Maldonado mentioned that he and his White Sox teammates had taken more thorough eye exams than those in spring training and found that they needed to wear glasses. Intrigued by this revelation, Hernández figured taking similar steps could help improve his first-half OPS of .557. After being diagnosed with right-eye astigmatism, he began wearing prescription glasses, allowing him to post a .766 OPS in the second half of the season. He also managed to carry his success into the postseason, slashing .294/.357/.451 over his 57 playoff plate appearances. This story is just one of several factors that make Hernández a potential hidden gem free agent this offseason. His full-season stats are uninspiring, and he’s on the slightly older side at 33 years old, but there’s good reason to place more stock in his latest accomplishments. Recency bias is a dangerous thing, especially in baseball. Still, there’s reason to believe that the newfound improvement in his eyesight will lead to greater offensive production in the long term. He struggled immensely against fastballs and breaking balls at the start of the season. If we look at his batting average against both pitch types by month, we can see a clear step forward after the All-Star break: Fastball Breaking April .250 .120 May .182 .083 June .194 .200 July .206 .105 August .259 .263 September .360 .263 This improvement becomes even more apparent when we look at his slugging numbers against both pitch types in the same way: Fastball Breaking April .250 .240 May .273 .083 June .361 .333 July .324 .263 August .481 .421 September .480 .632 He was able to get more hits in general and seemingly pummeling the ball with more authority. His new and improved eyesight allowed him to make better swing decisions and, most importantly, improved his hitting against right-handed hitters, a hole in his game that he has had throughout his entire big-league career. He’s quite good as a defender, racking up six Defensive Runs Saved in 2024, but his greatest value is in his overall flexibility. He played 50 innings or more at six different positions (did not play catcher or right field) on the Dodgers but spent most of his time at third base. This has been the case for his entire career, and even if tasked with one primary position, he has been excellent in the infield and the outfield. Long story short, his new team should feel free to plug him in wherever and expect him to get the job done. For the Brewers, he could be an outstanding fit for the current roster and payroll. With the departure of Willy Adames, the one clear weakness in the lineup is at third base. Joey Ortiz is the most likely candidate to move to shortstop, leaving Andruw Monasterio or short-king Caleb Durbin to man the hot corner. We more or less know what we’re getting in Monasterio, who may be a one-win player at best. In contrast, Caleb Durbin could be a total dice-toss that will, at the very least, still need some more time in the Brewers’ minor-league system before he’s fully baked and ready to hit the big leagues. Financially, top-dollar suitors aren’t exactly clamoring for his services. The Dodgers have expressed no interest in bringing him back, especially after they picked up utility infielder Hyeseong Kim and extended Tommy Edman. The Yankees have expressed interest, but in 2025, that means about as much as the Pirates front office saying they would like to compete in the upcoming season. Given his limited market and an inconsistent track record, Milwaukee probably wouldn’t have to break the bank to get him, at least not for a year or two. He may even want a short-term deal to get a full season of spectacled at-bats to boost his player stock before soliciting a more lucrative offer. The Brewers have always moved quite late in free agency and sought value for money. With their current gaps in the infield, a move to acquire Kiké Hernández could be the best of both worlds. View full article

from now on, any time i get anything wrong im going to use that as my defense: "well you just don't know driving/cooking/baseball/yahtzee"

this is how jack flaherty would respond to that:

I'd get Bobby Miller for the fit of his pants alone I do also think he's a great pitcher with remarkable upside who would be an awesome project for Milwaukee's pitching development but that's secondary.

Jake Bauers got in 346 PA last year, maybe it's close enough 😄

The team already has a surfeit of young talent, so what about signing someone a little older and wiser? Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Age is interpreted a little differently in the world of sports. Since the lifetime of a player’s career is relatively short, the age of 30 serves as a common threshold for considering a player old—archaic, even anachronistic, one might say. Chris Paul, a point guard who is currently 39 years old, is now being lovingly referred to as “unc” by his teammates in San Antonio. Baseball is a little different. Because there's less contact and the game emphasizes its skills instead of sheer athleticism, players can stick around for a little longer. Satchel Paige was 46 years old when he earned his eighth and final All-Star nod in 1953. David Ortiz was 40 years old and in the last year of his career, when he led Major League Baseball in doubles (48), slugging percentage (.620), and OPS (1.021). There’s still a lot of value in older players, especially when it comes to mentoring a group of younger, less experienced faces. Justin Turner crossed the 40-year mark last November, but hasn’t shown any major signs of slowing down just yet. In fact, if there’s a single word to describe Turner, it’s 'consistent'. Since 2013, he has never had an OPS+ under 100 for a full season. He started last year’s campaign with the Blue Jays and found himself with the Mariners at the trade deadline, where he became an integral part of an otherwise lackluster offense. Over 190 plate appearances with Seattle, he posted a 128 OPS+. Time waits for no man, and he is no exception. As he has grown older, his athleticism has steadily waned as his Statcast numbers clearly illustrate. He’s in the bottom decile for baserunning value, bat speed, and sprint speed. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rates are better, but still not great, landing him in the bottom quartile of qualified hitters. At this point, most would hang up the cleats and immediately place an order for podcasting equipment. Instead, Turner has changed his approach to compensate for his weaknesses. He makes excellent swing decisions and has top-tier bat-to-ball skills, whiffing on just 17% of his swings last season. He also kept his strikeout rate below 20%, while maintaining nearly an 11% walk rate, making him a tougher out than one might expect. His spray chart also shows another, more nuanced way that he has changed things up to stay relevant in a young man’s game. He’s a master at optimizing launch angles, continuing to hover around the 17° mark that he’s averaged for his whole big-league career. This gives him just enough lift to hit singles to all fields without the extra juice. One might also notice that, while the singles are evenly distributed across the board, his extra-base hits are far more skewed to one side. This is because, in order to get doubles and homers without simply adding more bat speed, he relies on pulling the ball more frequently. He's akin to Isaac Paredes or the Brewers’ very own Rhys Hoskins. This is more of a commentary on a flaw of xwOBA than a complete analysis of the extra value this provides, but FanGraphs has an outstanding article about how pulled balls consistently outperform their xwOBA, specifically at lower exit velocities, which is exactly what Turner has. This is partially due to the fact that xwOBA doesn't really factor in horizontal launch angle—which is a can of worms in and of itself, but hey, we're having a good time so let's get back to praising Justin Turner. His pull rate of 38.7% in 2024 was the highest of any season in his career. This figure has steadily increased over the past few years, so it seems to be an intentional adjustment to his hitting style rather than a simple statistical anomaly. Okay, so we’ve established that he’s baseball’s ageless warrior. That's great and all, but where does he actually fit on the roster? He has been spending the lion’s share of his time as a designated hitter, a position that’s already quite crowded in Milwaukee, but he had his fair share of reps at first base, as well. Of course, the Brewers already have a first baseman who is getting paid $18 million in 2025, so maybe he wouldn’t fit there either. Alas, there is naught but one more spot for him to go: third base. Yes, the last time it was clearly his primary position was 2021. Yes, if you look at his Savant page his arm strength is in the fifth percentile, which is a problem when one is required to throw across the diamond. Yes, his fielding range is probably quite poor, and he’s probably not as limber as Joey Ortiz or Sal Frelick. But there are reasons to have faith. First of all, I’m skeptical about the arm strength thing, since it only tracks attempts and as a designated hitter/first baseman, how often was he really having to throw with all his might? Second, if Turner has proven anything, it’s that age is just a number. Donovan Solano, who is younger but not by much, spent the most time at third base with the Padres last year and did well enough to sign a new one-year deal with the Mariners. Josh Donaldson was 37 years old when he retired as a Brewer and he was still pretty decent in the hot corner. Turner himself played a whole 33 innings of third base in 2024, so what’s 500-700 more innings of work at the spot? I mean, just check out the sheer athleticism he deploys in this clip to put out noted speedster Giancarlo Stanton: In all seriousness, he did make some athletic plays in the field while at first base, so he’s still got a least a little leather left in his glove: In a total worst-case scenario, he can form a sort of DH/first base rotation with Hoskins, the way that Jake Bauers did last year. Could he really be any more "meh" than Bauers was last year? And look, we dismissed the idea of him being a regular at DH or first, but he could certainly be a complementary player in either or both of those roles. Even at DH, Christian Yelich might need days off here and there. Ditto for Hoskins. And Turner would be injury insurance for several players, both directly and indirectly. Milwaukee has a little more to spend this offseason and Justin Turner would comfortably fit into that budget on a one-year deal. It won’t completely alter the future of the franchise or give the city their long-awaited World Series win (on its own, anyway), but it would make them one step closer to competing and give the fans at least something to look forward to this winter. View full article

I've read enough. It's time to bring back Wade Miley on a long-term deal. Just look how happy this guy was as a Brewer

matt arnold looking at the infield free agent market

I assume you're talking about the trade that brought Yelich to Milwaukee and yes, that was a horrible deal for Miami. It might be the worst decision the front office has made aside from getting rid of the home run sculpture.

Coastal erosion. Paint drying. The Brewers' offseason to date. Quick, find the connection. Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images We’re a little over two months away from Opening Day. For fans of teams like the Dodgers and Yankees, this offseason has seen a flurry of roster activity and hundreds of millions of dollars spent. For Brewers fans, things have seemed more like taking the 18-hour flight from Singapore to New York without looking at anything except the in-flight safety manual. They have made some notable moves, but not many—and we’d really be stretching the definition of “notable” to include some of these: Acquired LHP Nestor Cortes and 2B Caleb Durbin from NYY in exchange for RHP Devin Williams Signed LHP Grant Wolfram Signed RHP Elvin Rodriguez Why, exactly, has it been so boring—and more importantly, will it stay that way? Free Agents Are Never Free Like most years, the biggest moves involve free agent signings and, like most years, Milwaukee showed no interest in taking part in nine-figure bidding wars. The largest-ever contract in team history that wasn’t an extension is still Lorenzo Cain’s five-year, $80-million deal, which was signed in 2018. Thus, given their enduring frugality and the anticipated decrease in broadcasting revenue, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the team has abstained from big spending. They probably have a little more room in the budget but it’s not game-changing money, at least not for an MLB team. This has understandably caused some unrest among team supporters, who can only dream of their beloved Crew shelling out big-market money to acquire top-tier talent. To make matters worse, the NL Central is one of the cheapest divisions in baseball. Per Cot’s Contracts, the projected 2025 payrolls for the cohort are as follows: Note: The Year End 40-man payroll reflects actual salaries paid out to players each year,f whereas the Competitive Balance Tax payroll is calculated using AAV, bonuses, and other benefits. Chicago Cubs Year End 40-man: $179.8 million (13th) Competitive Balance Tax: $197.9 million (14th) St. Louis Cardinals Year End 40-man: $146.6 million (16th) Competitive Balance Tax: $163.3 million (16th) Milwaukee Brewers Year End 40-man: $108.2 million (22nd) Competitive Balance Tax: $134.9 million (21st) Cincinnati Reds Year End 40-man: $104.6 million (24th) Competitive Balance Tax: $125.5 million (24th) Pittsburgh Pirates Year End 40-man: $81.6 million (24th) Competitive Balance Tax: $103.6 million (26th) The Brewers aren’t really incentivized by their peers to spend more, since they’re all on the lower end of spending. The Cubs and Cardinals lead the pack, but given that their attendance numbers are sixth and seventh in MLB respectively, they could probably afford to spend even more than they are. Instead, we have a group of five teams where everyone is waiting for someone else to kick off the spending spree, rather than doing it themselves. Even then, a "spree" in the NL Central is going to feel a lot like "Tuesday" in the AL East. Milwaukee has won the division by wide margins for the past two years, so why work harder if you can work smarter, or cheaper? Like Your Local Florist on Valentine’s Day, It’s Slim Pickings The biggest transactions of late have been centered around starting pitchers and outfielders, areas in which the Brewers already have commendable depth. Free-agent starters have combined for $1.12 billion (and that’s even before Wade Miley signs his inevitable record-breaking contract, with infinite deferrals). Outfielders have been given another $1.01 billion (the lion’s share of this was given to Juan Soto, but still). On the trade front, Kyle Tucker and Garrett Crochet have been the biggest pieces to change uniforms this offseason. You can even throw Jesús Luzardo in there if you’d like. You can never have too much talent in the rotation (as clearly shown by the Dodgers), but it’s just not Milwaukee's main focus right now. The more pressing need lies in the infield, more specifically getting a guy with some pop to fill the shoes of Willy Adames. Unfortunately, that’s difficult to find. Here is my list of free agents that both possess that quality and are affordable enough for the Brewers: Paul DeJong (kinda?) Brendan Rodgers (sorta?) What about a trade? There were conversations about the Cubs moving Nico Hoerner and he compensates for a lack of home runs with plenty of doubles, but Chicago would never do a deal with their direct competition. Nolan Arenado is way too old and expensive. Alec Bohm hit 44 doubles and 15 home runs last year, but his chances of getting moved have plummeted since the Winter Meetings. Long story short, Milwaukee won’t be able to replace a shortstop who hit 33 doubles and 32 home runs on the way to 112 RBIs last year. There’s a chance they can compensate for the lost production with improvements from Rhys Hoskins, who was supposed to be the team’s power bat anyway, but it won’t come from a new face in the lineup. In my humble opinion, the team will eventually get around to doing something, but don’t expect the needle to be moved by a huge margin. Instead, any forward progress will come from two things: maintaining the health of key players and watching young players continue to improve. Before he hit the IL with back problems, Christian Yelich was the best he has been since 2019. He slashed .315/.406/.504 for a 151 OPS+ over the 315 plate appearances he did have, and had he been present for the playoffs, there’s a chance the result would have been very different. On the opposite timeline was Garrett Mitchell, who didn’t return to action until July but ended up slashing .255/.342/.469 for an OPS+ of 123 while playing stellar defense in center field, amassing 6 Defensive Runs Saved. If the Brewers can get both of these guys in the lineup for a whole season, the team’s offensive potential would take a big step forward. Jackson Chourio was one of the National League’s best rookies last year, and he will continue to get better the more time he spends in the big leagues. He was already forced to make an adjustment last year after getting off to a rough start in the first two months, but once June came around, the weather wasn’t the only thing that heated up quickly. Joey Ortiz and Tobias Myers are two other players who will enter their sophomore seasons with high expectations given the success of their rookie years. If the club does end up making a big move, expect it to be closer to the trade deadline, and only if the fight for the NL Central is too close for comfort. Otherwise, it’ll be the same old Brewers’ MO we’ve seen year in and year out. The Brewers front office hard at work completing their first offseason deal View full article

While most known for his time in sunny San Diego, his stint in Milwaukee was a fitting end to a historic career. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images In 2025, the song Hells Bells by AC/DC might be best-known among your average person for being on the Deadpool & Wolverine soundtrack. To others, it’s one of two songs (the other being Enter Sandman by Metallica) that evoke memories of the greatest closers of all time. While Mariano Rivera undoubtedly holds the top spot, Trevor Hoffman is a pretty close second. At 601 career saves, he has 123 more than third-place Lee Smith. Kenley Jansen could take the third spot, but unless he pays several visits to the Fountain of Youth, Hoffman’s place on the statistical podium is safe and sound. After a brief debut with the Marlins, he spent the next 16 years coming out of the bullpen for the Padres where he established his stellar reputation and earned 552 of his saves. By 2009, he was a 41-year-old free agent watching the ownership of his beloved team cut the payroll in half to facilitate a sale. Despite wanting to retire a Friar, Hoffman had to move along. The club offered him just a $4-million contract before withdrawing their offer, forcing him to test the waters elsewhere. Instead, he signed a one-year, $6-million contract with the Brewers. The 2008 campaign had been a down year by his standards, resulting in a 3.77 ERA and just 30 saves. With little reason to believe that he could turn back the clock in his 40s, it was immensely surprising to watch him put up one of his best performances yet, recording a 1.83 ERA (second-lowest for a full season in his career) with 37 saves. He earned his seventh and final All-Star selection for his efforts and at the end of 2009, he signed another one-year, $8-million deal with a mutual option. At this point, Hoffman needed just nine more saves to reach the elusive 600 mark. His status as an all-time great reliever was already settled, and any further accomplishments were just gravy. In fact, since he had just thrown the ball as well as ever, the possibilities seemed endless for a man seemingly unaffected by the march of time. Unfortunately, reality is often disappointing. He struggled immensely in 2010, posting a 5.89 ERA and -0.9 rWAR, the worst single-season numbers he had ever put up. After the first two months, he had accumulated just five saves. Still four saves away from 600, Ken Macha, the manager at the time, decided to move Hoffman to lower-leverage relief innings to try and get his mechanics back on track. After he spent June and July avoiding save situations, he returned to his natural habitat in August. He still struggled but managed to acquire three more saves, bringing him to 599. With just a month of regular season left to play, it really seemed like a dice-toss as to whether he’d be able to drag himself across the finish line. He entered September with a 6.23 ERA and a FIP of 5.40, numbers that would’ve led anyone else to being removed from the roster entirely—let alone taking the ball in save situations. But Trevor Hoffman isn’t anyone else. Furthermore, the Brewers weren’t even close to a playoff spot, so why not aim for history instead? On Sept. 7, he finally got the chance he had been waiting for, entering the game against the Cardinals while up 4-2. Facing the bottom of the St. Louis lineup, he did what he had done best for the past 18 years: dice up major-league hitters. To put a cherry on top, he earned another save against the Mets in his last-ever major-league game, bringing him to a nice prime number in 601. Brewer Fanatic readers know better than most that baseball is a game of statistical obsession. Whether it’s swing adaptability metrics or some nuanced defensive figure made up by some computer program, fans love numbers. Players are no different, and many often chase round-number milestones even if it’s probably not conducive to team success. The most recent example of this was Adam Wainwright’s painstaking chase of his 200th win in his final big-league season, which saw him limp to the end with a 7.40 ERA over 21 starts. With Hoffman, his competitive nature and dogged determination to reach some arbitrary threshold may not have been the best for his overall career numbers, but it gave fans something to cheer for, and it demonstrated one of the subtle aspects of his greatness: that improbable consistency and longevity. He may forever be remembered as a Padre, but his crowning achievement came as a Brewer. View full article

Cool to see a few Mariners greats on here. He had insane aura as well. When Ichiro threw out Terrence Long at third base, he was asked how he did it and he said: ''The ball was hit right to me. Why did he run when I was going to throw him out?'' So many great quotes and moments from an inspiration pioneer and personal hero. My favorite A-Rod rumor is that he had a painting of himself as a centaur. The best part is, because he lies so often, his denial of the fact is meaningless and there's a possibility that it is in fact true. Something that also hampers the King is how bad his team was. The Mariners during his career were so laughably inept that he only just narrowly escaped his perfect game with a 1-0 victory. It's why we never got to see him in the postseason and personally, I think his sheer workload probably shortened his career which, in turn, also hurts his HoF case. He's a great guy who has never taken the game too seriously and I've actually had the chance to meet him. I asked him about throwing the first pitch in the WBC quarterfinal game between the US and his native Venezuela and the way I would describe him is just cool. I hope the voters focus more on his prime and less on his relative lack of longevity/counting stats and I just hope he gets what he deserves.

i think we really need to consider that the cubs lost myles masterbonie this offseason which is a big loss so i think cubs fans need to be worried since the brewers now have both nectar cortes and grant wolfram. also jared koenig changed his number which i think will make him best pitcher of all time next season

With baserunning coach Quintin Berry gone, a veteran voice who has shown an on-field nous for pilfering pillows. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Prior to the 2023 season, MLB instituted several rules to make stealing bases easier, in an attempt to make the game more action-packed and appealing to Gen-Z viewers with a TikTok attention span (it's me, I'm the Gen-Z viewer). The league is still far from finding the next Rickey Henderson, but this has allowed players like Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. to add immense value through their speed and aggressiveness. The Brewers themselves have Brice Turang, who has accumulated 88 stolen bases over the past two years. Given their financial limitations, Milwaukee probably won’t sign a free agent of high-profile batting or defensive value, but there are two options whose ability to capitalize on this re-emphasized aspect of the game may make them hidden gems. Tommy Pham is a journeyman who has been on seven different teams in the past three years. It’s not really his fault, as he was traded several times and even made it to the World Series with the Diamondbacks in 2023. He’s an 11-year big-league veteran, and despite his offensive and defensive numbers gradually regressing with age, he’s still making the most out of the tools he has left. He isn’t blazingly fast and only stole seven bases in 2024, but when looking at the Lead Distance Gained leaderboards, he’s still pretty good for a 36-year old. Over the past two seasons, Pham gained an average of 14.5 feet on his steal attempts between a pitcher’s start of delivery and his release, getting terrific jumps. But what does this really measure? A quick peek at Baseball Savant shows that the leaders in this category predominantly generate below-average stolen base value. This is because, like every statistic in baseball, it only tells one part of the story. For example, Jorge Soler has an even better average Lead Distance Gained over the past two years than Pham (at 18.4 feet), but his Net Bases Gained when it comes to stolen bases is -13 despite never being caught stealing. The likely story is that these players will only seize the opportunity in the rare event that they get great leads and clear paths to steal. This is often done when the cost of creating an out is low (someone is getting blown out), which gives them a much lower sample size of lead distance data. The best example of this anomalous statistical profile is Elías Díaz, who leads the pack with an outstanding Lead Distance Gained of 40.8 feet. However, a closer look shows that it's the result of one attempt that happened in a dominant win against the White Sox in 2023, so I'm not sure if it really supports the case that he’s the greatest base stealer of our time. Unlike Soler and Díaz, Pham is aggressive, attempting steals at a 1.6% clip when he gets a chance. This opens the door to creating outs more frequently but also results in more bases gained, making him a net-positive contributor on the basepaths despite his average speed. A more refined version of Pham is Whit Merrifield. He had his struggles at the plate and in the infield last year, but he found some success pilfering bags, accumulating 17 of them in total. (Fun fact: he had two more stolen bases than RBIs, a rare feat.) He shares Pham’s penchant for getting a great lead while the pitcher is trying to do his job, also posting a Lead Distance Gained of 14.5 feet, but he is even more aggressive and successful. He attempted stolen bases at a 2.8% rate and has a Net Bases Gained figure of 13, on par with the quick youth of today’s game like Johan Rojas and Zach Neto. Both Pham and Merrifield have their fair share of weaknesses, and it wouldn’t make sense to have both of them on a roster as talented as the Brewers’. However, picking one of these free agents to help share the subtle nuances of aggressive baserunning with the young, speedy core could be a meaningful way to upgrade the roster in a non-obvious (and, most importantly, affordable) way. Just think about what Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, and Turang could do if they were given the green light to live out their kleptomaniac desires. It’s not usually what one might be considering when thinking of free-agent acquisitions, but getting one of these two guys could just be the “steal” of the offseason. View full article