Jason Wang

Over his last stretch of brutal outings, the career journeyman has regressed to his former self. What does that mean for his role as a starter come playoff time? Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-Imagn Images For the majority of this year, Colin Rea has exceeded expectations. Despite being a back-of-the-rotation guy in 2023, he ascended to new heights in 2024. After his 19th start on Aug. 6, he had a 3.38 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Since then, he’s managed just one quality start, while conceding seven or more earned runs twice, dragging his overall statistics down to a 4.21 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. How did this happen? Rea’s array of fastballs sits in the low 90s (though his cutter more often registers in the high 80s), and isn’t anything spectacular. Opposing batters are slugging .506 against his sinker and .647 against his cutter this year--a big problem, since those are the two pitches he throws most frequently. He has had slightly more success with his four-seam fastball, but he’s still conceded 11 earned runs with it, around the same number as his other two fastballs. Instead, the secret sauce has been his sweeper. Prior to Aug. 7, Rea threw his sweeper 329 times. Over this span, he gave up just five hits and zero earned runs. At an average velocity of 82 mph, with 42 inches of vertical drop, it’s a pretty good pitch. It has some late break, and to his credit, Rea was commanding it well, attacking the bottom portion of the zone while hitting the upper portions with his four-seam fastball. Rea to Suzuki.mp4 Hitters had a cumulative .182 OPS against the sweeper to that point, while whiffing on 24.8% of swings. A whopping 32.4% of their takes ended up as called strikes. Rea to Gunnar.mp4 Aug. 13 is when things started to unravel. Rea had a six-inning start against the Dodgers that saw him give up 10 hits and seven earned runs. It took him 92 pitches to get through four innings against the Reds, and his most recent start against the Giants was an unmitigated disaster, ending in a final line of 10 earned runs over four innings. His greatest pitch suddenly became his worst enemy, as hitters started catching on. While he allowed five hits and zero earned runs on his first 329 sweepers, his last 96 have resulted in eight hits and eight earned runs. The biggest cause for concern seems to be his command, especially against lefties. In the first portion of the year, he did a great job of placing the pitch either on the low inside corner or on the outside edge, painful spots for any batter. Lately, too many of his pitches are in the heart of the zone. That makes sense, as command tends to deteriorate quickly under the duress and fatigue of leading a top-notch rotation for a lengthy baseball season. Rea has never pitched this many innings, his closest mark being the 124 ⅔ innings he tossed last year. He’s already at 154 innings this year, with a few more turns of the rotation left plus playoff games in October, it’s not looking great for his workload. Furthermore, analytical fans will note that his FIP has always seemingly foreshadowed a return to Earth. Even through early August, when his ERA was at the 3.38 mark, his FIP was 4.27, heavily affected by a relatively low strikeout rate (19.5%) and average walk (7.1%) and home-run rates (3.1%). While it's not a perfect metric and can seem somewhat arbitrary, it's been a better predictor of future ERA than pretty much anything else. Milwaukee has the privilege of having several playoff-viable starters. Tobias Myers, while inexperienced, has been excellent all year. Freddy Peralta and Frankie Montas have several postseason appearances, and both have been on an upward trajectory in this final stretch. Even Aaron Civale has been more productive than many expected, after a brutal stint with the Rays. All of this means that Rea isn’t a necessary part of the playoff pitching picture. However, he’s demonstrated his ability to be great when in his full form, so perhaps some rest and recovery could help him help the team. In a worst-case scenario, maybe he crawls over the finish line of the regular season and finds himself in a long reliever role out of the bullpen, eating medium-leverage innings or coming in to stabilize the situation in the event of an emergency. Managing the pitching staff in the postseason is a unique exercise. Because of the higher importance of each game and the compressed schedule, teams usually shift from a five-man rotation to a four-man corps. The four names mentioned above could fill these spots and take the pressure off of Rea, allowing him to find the peak version of himself once again. Otherwise, seeing a depleted version of him taking the mound against the Dodgers, Phillies, or Diamondbacks in an elimination game could end in new, disappointing postseason memories for Brewers fans all over the world. View full article

do u think its because they were besties with mark canha last year when he was a brewer and didn't wanna embarrass him and get uninvited from his birthday party at chuck e cheese?

In the bottom of the ninth inning Tuesday night, the Brewers’ closer had to face an imposing rookie threat to preserve the team’s one-run lead. Image courtesy of © Stan Szeto-Imagn Images Milwaukee got to work quickly against the Giants, scoring two runs in the first inning and adding a third by way of a Garrett Mitchell home run in the sixth inning. Unfortunately, the Giants went tit-for-tat, keeping things within one run throughout the entire game. The Brewers were up 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth inning, and with the heart of the order coming to the plate, Pat Murphy called on the services of Devin Williams. After giving up a single to Heliot Ramos, Williams struck out Michael Conforto, got Matt Chapman to pop out, and walked Mark Canha. With the winning runner now on first, this called for a mound visit. Williams was 17 pitches into this appearance and the fatigue was starting to show. In his at-bat against Canha, he threw just one strike while his four-seam fastball struggled to find the plate. He needed just one more out, but with no margin for error, it wouldn’t be an easy one to get. Tyler Fitzgerald has been a welcome surprise for Giants fans this year. He has posted a .870 OPS over 288 plate appearances, and has consequently become one of the most valuable members of the team. He has performed slightly worse against right-handed pitching (.827 OPS) than he has against left-handed pitching (.947 OPS), but his numbers are still competitive. To make matters worse, he has a .854 OPS against four-seam fastballs and a 1.000 OPS against changeups from the right side, a seemingly uphill battle for Williams who throws these pitches exclusively. Williams led off with a changeup, perhaps wanting to recreate the success that DL Hall had against Fitzgerald with his change in the seventh inning, albeit from the left side. It was actually a pretty good pitch, boasting 44 inches of drop and 22 inches of arm-side run. Fitzgerald, likely expecting a changeup after witnessing Williams’s lack of command with the fastball, decided to take it, putting him in a 1-0 count. QnZxNDVfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdVSFV3WU5VVlFBQ1ZJSFVRQUFWVk5VQUZrQkFGVUFVMVJSQVZBTlZ3TlJCVlFE.mp4 So it was time to turn up the gas, or at least as much as possible. Because of the workload, Williams was sitting around 93 mph on his fastball, a dip from his usual velocity around the 95 mph mark. Still, if it was tunneled and commanded well enough, he’d get a whiff or at least some soft contact. Fitzgerald was probably still expecting another changeup, since the last one had been a ball, so he decided to take again, watching his first strike on the outside edge. Williams was back to an even count at 1-1. QnZxNDVfWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdnRlhWSUFYZ29BREZWV1V3QUFCd1ZmQUFNRlYxRUFBMVlGQmxkWENRWlJCMVlI.mp4 In even counts with fewer than two strikes, Williams has a slight preference for throwing his fastball. While he’s famous for his “Airbender”, his fastball is still immensely effective, not necessarily because of its scorching velocity or wicked spin, but instead, because of how well he sequences it with his changeup. Batters are constantly expecting the change, which allows him to get away with free heaters in the low 90s. That's exactly what he did on the third pitch of the at-bat. It clocked in at just 93 mph, one of the slowest fastballs he has thrown all season, but Fitzgerald just watched it go by him to put him into a do-or-die 1-2 count. QnZxNDVfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdZRlYxSU1CMUVBQUFBS1ZBQUFDQVFIQUZsVEFWTUFWRklIQWdwUlVsQUhVbFlF.mp4 At this point, Williams had the clear psychological advantage. He was ahead in the count, and even with runners on base and the game on the line, it was a position he had been in before, as a six-year veteran. Tyler Fitzgerald, on the other hand, had just stared at two strikes and was one mistake away from costing his team the game. He couldn’t possibly afford to stare at a third strike in the zone; Giants Twitter would have his head for it. He was going to, at the very least, try to fight off the next few pitches if they looked even close to the plate. So what did Williams do? Go back to the bread-and-butter bender of air. Perhaps sensing a green light for Fitzgerald, William Contreras set up on the outside edge, wanting to avoid any chance of contact. Williams delivered, getting a foul tip that looked more like a pure whiff to end the game. QnZxNDVfWGw0TUFRPT1fQkZRQ0FGQUhBbGNBV2xZS1h3QUFVZ2RlQUFBQ0IxZ0FDd1lDQlZWUlZRWlNBQUJY.mp4 After some adversity, Williams came away with a two-strikeout save in 21 pitches. His final strikeout added 17% of win probability, the biggest change of any single plate appearance in the game. His performance under duress helped start the series on the right foot and bring the Brewers into single-digit magic number territory, in terms of clinching the NL Central for the fourth time in five years. View full article

He’s already made more plate appearances in 2024 than in his last two years combined. What has this larger sample size shown us? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Last month, Matthew Trueblood put out a great article looking into the early numbers being put up by Garrett Mitchell, and brought a couple of key things to light. First, he had an oddly high whiff rate, despite having an excellent chase rate. Second, he was striking out at a reasonable rate while walking >10% of the time. Third, his BABIP was incredible, perhaps unsustainably so. All of these statements were made when he had 78 plate appearances under his belt. Now that we’ve got 167 plate appearances worth of data, I wanted to revisit how he’s progressed (or regressed) in each of the areas of concern. To start, let’s unpack his whiff and chase rates. He’s still chasing at an elite percentage of 15.8%, the best mark on the team. Unfortunately, his issues with swinging and missing seem to be chronic. His cumulative whiff rate is a whopping 32.8%, and he has an in-zone whiff rate of 26.8%, the highest mark of any Brewer with at least 110 plate appearances. Here’s how that in-zone whiff rate breaks down by pitch type. Hard (four-seam, sinker, cutter) 28.5% Off-speed (changeup, splitter) 28.1% Breaking (curveball, slider, sweeper) 22.2% Given this breakdown, I wondered if this was due to Mitchell not being able to time up velocity very well. This would make sense given his long layoff and how darn tough it is to hit a baseball when it’s thrown really hard. However, his in-zone whiff rate against fastballs thrown 95 mph or harder is just 24.4%, better than his cumulative rate. Against pitches slower than 95 mph, it jumps up to 35.4%, but even more interesting is how bad he has been against 94 mph fastballs, specifically. He has 17 total misses against four-seam fastballs thrown between 94 and 95 miles an hour, and an in-zone whiff rate of 57.7%. This holds little to no statistical significance, but I thought it was peculiar enough to mention. Because of his swing decisions, it makes a ton of sense that a player who both chases at an elite rate and whiffs worse than the majority of MLB would have correspondingly high walk and strikeout rates. If he had a penchant for hitting home runs, he'd be another great example of a three-true-outcome player, but with just four homers to speak of so far, he's missing the final piece of the puzzle. Furthermore, this has been his M.O. since he was called up. His career whiff rate is 34.0%, so fans can be glad that at least he's mostly missing on pitches inside the zone. When Mitchell does manage to make contact, things tend to swing his way. His cumulative BABIP of .371 is the best on the team of anyone with >60 plate appearances. This isn’t necessarily due to a wicked-high launch-angle sweet-spot rate or tremendous exit velocity that blasts baseballs off of outfield walls for doubles and triples. Instead, it’s likely due to his speed. His 97th percentile sprint speed allows him to leg out hits that would otherwise be routine groundouts. Take this hit against the Reds that was only made possible by Mitchell’s wild wheels, or this play against the Marlins. With his extended stay with the Brewers in 2024, Mitchell has shown himself to be a capable outfielder. Despite the lopsided nature of his intrinsic hitting profile, his .252/.341/.422 slash line and 111 OPS+ mean he’s capable at the plate, and if nothing else, he’s got good on-base skills. Defensively, he’s primarily been playing center field, with some time in right field as well and has already accumulated 8 Defensive Runs Saved. So what does this all mean for his future with the team? There is a ton of talent in Milwaukee’s outfield, and Mitchell doesn’t have the same star power of Christian Yelich or Jackson Chourio that almost demands a starting spot. He’s proven himself to be valuable and perhaps an offensive upgrade over the likes of Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick, but it would be hard to definitively say that he’s a clear step up. Perhaps the future for Mitchell lies outside of the Brewers, and his greatest use is as a trade piece. Before Joey Wiemer was ultimately packaged and sent off to Cincinnati in exchange for Frankie Montas, Mitchell was seen as the most likely outfielder to be shipped off. His numbers have cooled off since the trade deadline, but they haven’t drifted far enough for his value to significantly change. With his abilities, years of team control, and existing competition in the outfield, he’d fetch a hefty haul in the offseason, and could help set the Brewers up for deep playoff runs in the future. Until then, he’s a critical piece of the outfield sans Christian Yelich. View full article

After more than a year of financial uncertainty, Bally Sports could finally be nearing a deal with the tech giant. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images Diamond Sports Group, the owner of Bally Sports, started running into bankruptcy in February 2023 after missing an interest payment of $140 million. In the months following, they further missed payments to various sports teams, and confusion regarding the future of their portfolio of streaming rights left fans in a daze. Luckily for them (and perhaps unluckily for the average consumer), Amazon started talks to fold Bally’s assets into Amazon Prime Video. When it was announced, there was still a chance that the bankruptcy court would reject the deal, but as per recent reports, it seems that negotiations are in the final stages. So, what does this mean for fans hoping to stream Brew Crew baseball? The Brewers are one of the five MLB teams (along with the Tigers, Royals, Marlins, and Rays) whose existing contracts with Diamond Sports Group will carry over into the future. The current plan seems that Amazon will charge $20/month for a streaming package through Prime that provides fans access to teams in their local area. Most importantly, this means that in-market viewers with Prime subscriptions will no longer need cable access to watch the Brewers. Regional sports networks have struggled as cord-cutting has continued, and more people have moved towards consolidated television packages. This partnership with Amazon is a temporary fix, but a few hurdles still need to be cleared. First, DSG must prove that it can be a sustainable business to satisfy the bankruptcy court. Second, Amazon must stay true to its word as its earlier withdrawal of a discussed $115 million investment doesn’t necessarily convey the most faith. Sure, they’re interested in the broadcasting rights now, but what about in five to ten years? Will consumers have to go through this charade again? Finally, what about customers without Amazon Prime? Will they have to succumb to an Amazon Prime subscription in addition to the added fee to stream games? Potentially, but as things are yet to be set in stone, it’s hard to make a definitive claim. An interesting tidbit about this deal is that it may not be exclusive, meaning DSG could enter similar partnerships with competing platforms, providing customers with alternative viewing options. To further complicate matters, MLB has expressed interest in tossing their hat in the streaming ring and could release their package as soon as 2025. Rob Manfred said this is one of his main focuses moving forward and could simplify things in an in-market package similar to the existing out-of-market MLB.tv product. In the interim, you can look forward to funneling your hard funds into the pockets of Amazon investors worldwide so you can enjoy some good ol’ Milwaukee baseball. View full article

Milwaukee continued their savage stretch of shoving, posting a combined team ERA of 3.25 over 28 games. Honorable Mentions Joel Payamps 12 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 12 K Payamps had his best month of the year so far, pitching to the tune of a 1.42 ERA over 14 appearances. It was the first month of the season where his ERA was under 4.00 as he dialed in on his sinker and slider. Against 72 sliders thrown, opposing batters batted just .059 with a 27.8% strikeout rate. While his sinker didn’t net a single strikeout, it also didn’t give up a single hit or walk over 34 pitches. Statistical Nugget: Of Brewers pitchers with 10+ innings pitched in August, Payamps’ WHIP of 0.63 was the second-lowest behind just Bryan Hudson (0.50). Joe Ross 13 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K Following a disappointing stretch of starts before and after a lengthy IL stint, Ross has been great out of the bullpen so far. It was his first full month as a reliever and he was lights out, posting a 0.69 ERA over his seven appearances. While his four-seam fastball was a secondary weapon to his sinker this month, it had an impressive 42.9% strikeout rate with a 0.0% walk rate. The only run he gave up was against his slider, a pitch that still kept opposing batters to a .387 OPS. Statistical Nugget: Of Brewers pitchers with 10+ innings pitched in August, Ross’s opposing slugging percentage of .174 was the lowest. Freddy Peralta 28 IP, 22 H, 9 ER, 11 BB, 23 K Like the aforementioned names on this list, Peralta hit a real stride this month. His 2.89 ERA over five starts was a significant improvement over the approximately 4.00 ERA mark he was sitting at over the prior three months. It has been discussed a few times on Brewer Fanatic already, but when his slider is working well, Peralta is at his best. Over 78 sliders thrown in August, he didn’t concede a single run. The curveball was just as effective, also avoiding any scoring damage over 48 pitches. He’s locking in at just the right time and if he maintains this momentum into the postseason, Milwaukee will have a great rotation setup for any playoff series. Statistical Nugget: Of Brewers pitchers with more than 20 batters faced in August, Freddy Peralta’s barrel rate against his breaking balls was 6.3%, second-lowest behind just Joe Ross (5.6%). Pitcher of the Month - Tobias Myers 27 IP, 24 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 21 K The defending champion kept it going with a 2.67 ERA over five starts, his best monthly ERA since the mind-blowing 1.44 he posted in June. His four-seam/slider combo continued to help carry the sagging weight of a cutter that continues to struggle at the major league level. These two pitches combined for an opposing batting average of just .186, a big improvement over the .360 average against his cutter in August. While Peralta may have entered the season as the ace of the rotation, Myers seems to have risen to the top spot statistically, leading the team in starter ERA (3.00). Regardless of who is actually top dog, it’s clear that the starting rotation injury catastrophe that threatened to sink the ship has been patched up just in time for October. Statistical Nugget: Of Brewers starters, Myers’ August walk rate of 4.6% was the second-lowest, behind just Colin Rea (0.8%). View full article

Because of their success this year, Milwaukee could get a few extra days of rest in October. Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK It has been a great regular season for the Brewers so far. They have vastly exceeded expectations, and since they’re comfortably winning the NL Central, the next goal should be to skip straight to the division series, if possible. As things currently stand, the Dodgers have the most wins in the National League with 81, while the Phillies and Brewers are just two games back with identical records of 79-56. This gives the Dodgers a clear bye, but we’ll have to head to a tiebreaker for the other two teams. The first factor is the head-to-head record. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, the only series they played against Philadelphia was a three-game sweep back at the start of June. On the other hand, they have an upcoming three-game series at home to settle the score. If the Brewers manage to sweep the Phillies right back, then the head-to-head record will be 3-3, so we’ll have to defer to the second tiebreaker, their record against division opponents. Some might say the Phillies and Brewers are not in the same division. While I personally deny such outlandish claims and believe them to be a part of a larger conspiracy, I must admit that it’s technically true. However, MLB still uses intradivision record as the tiebreaker in this case. Against NL Central teams, the Brewers are 28-16, giving them a winning percentage of 63.6%. Against NL East teams, the Phillies are 21-15, giving them a winning percentage of 58.3% so that the Brewers would take the #2 National League seed and the attached bye. But hold on, the season isn’t exactly over yet. There are under 30 games to play, and a lot can change over that span, especially if teams are currently caught in a deadlock. If we instead try to imagine the playoff bracket after a full 162 games have been completed, things look slightly different. Per FanGraphs, the Dodgers are still projected to end up on top with 97 projected wins. The Phillies come in second with 94 projected wins, and the Brewers get relegated to the Wild Card Round with 93. Still, there’s a meager spread of just four games between first and third here, so what can the Crew do to sway the odds back in their favor? Based on FanGraphs, they have the strongest strength of schedule of the three current division leaders down the stretch. A couple of upcoming series that could prove to be somewhat challenging are the Diamondbacks (twice) and Phillies. Furthermore, the Mets and Cardinals aren’t exactly pushovers, even though the Brewers have played well against them this year. Finally, there’s a three-game set against the Giants on the schedule, and they’ve had a decent second half, going 21-18 with a +10 run differential. The Phillies have to wrap up their series against the heated rival Braves, but after that, their schedule doesn’t contain any playoff locks other than the Brewers. Instead, it’s filled with four games against the Marlins, three games against the Cubs, three games against the Nationals, and seven games against the Mets. Mathematically, the Brewers just need to win one more game than the Phillies to get ahead, but because of the difference in opponent quality, they have a slightly uphill battle to fight if they want to seize the #2 seed. On the bright side, the Phillies seem to have hit a bumpy stretch after the All-Star break, while the Brewers are riding high on upward momentum, which could shift the sands in a meaningful way. But is getting a bye even beneficial? The 2023 postseason called this into question after every team that received a bye other than the Astros was bounced out in their first series, leading to the #5 seeded Texas Rangers and #6 Arizona Diamondbacks playing for the grand prize. In my opinion, this concern can be attributed more to recency bias as well as the inherent uncertainty of baseball. The biggest advantage of the bye is being able to orient your pitching staff the way you want while keeping them fresh. Milwaukee’s rotation has been a sore spot since the offseason, but with the top of their rotation seeming to hit a stride, this could give the team the upper hand. Who knows, maybe we’ll get to see more than one round of playoff Brewers baseball for the first time since 2018. View full article

How have the organization’s top prospects and most advanced farmhands been faring as their season heads into the home stretch? Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK Injuries Dash Hopes of Two Potential Call-Ups Jeferson Quero tore his labrum in April and had season-ending surgery, nullifying his chances of making his MLB debut this year. As the No. 1-ranked prospect in the Brewers system, he’ll have to wait a little longer to get called up, but with an ETA of 2025, it shouldn’t be too long. With Gary Sánchez hitting free agency at the end of the year and Eric Haase hardly a long-term backup option, Quero will be a great second-string catcher behind William Contreras in the near future. Abner Uribe hit the 7-day injured list back in June. He is also out for the season after undergoing knee surgery in July. He was a shadow of himself from 2023, pitching to a 6.91 ERA over 14 ⅓ innings with the Brewers this year. He did, however, manage a 1.04 ERA over 8 ⅔ innings with the Nashville Sounds. Uribe is one of the underdiscussed losses of this season, on a pitching staff filled with them. Hopefully, he'll be back with a vengeance in 2025. Who Should Get Added to the 28-Man? Other than "What is my favorite craft beer?", this is the most-asked question by Brewers fans. With a farm system as rich in talent as Milwaukee’s, it can be hard to pick just two names. The most popular choice would undoubtedly be pitching phenom Jacob Misiorowski. The third-ranked prospect in the system and 66th overall prospect in baseball, his sheer potential has made fans clamor for him to be added to the active roster. With a four-seam fastball that topped out at 100.7 mph this year and a curveball with 46.6 inches of vertical drop, it’s no surprise. After posting a 3.50 ERA over 19 starts in Double-A, he has gone on to post a 1.69 ERA over 10 ⅔ innings coming out of the bullpen. He could be a great X-factor for the Crew's October bullpen. At the very least, he'd be a fun sight to see in the final month of the summer. Along the theme of pitchers, my fellow Indiana University graduate Craig Yoho seems poised to break out, himself. He doesn’t quite get the same amount of attention as Misiorowski, but don’t get it twisted: he’s a ballplayer. His 1.09 ERA and 17.0 K/9 across 49 ⅔ innings of minor-league ball this year speak for themselves. He has only pitched 6 ⅓ innings in Nashville, but has shown that he can compete at the higher levels of the sport. Tyler Black is another potential name to add, although he already debuted earlier this year. He seemed to struggle at the major-league level with an OPS of just .561 but he only received 57 plate appearances, not enough time to find his footing. He’s got an .842 OPS with Nashville this year over a much more robust sample size of 386 plate appearances. What about the aptly named Brewer Hicklen? He has been great in right field and he might be an offensive upgrade over Sal Frelick who is currently one of the team’s weakest bats. Hicklen has slashed .250/.367/.484 with 20 home runs, 16 doubles, and five triples. He may not provide the defensive prowess of Frelick, but adding Hicklen would give Pat Murphy more optionality and the team a player with literally the perfect name. Can Mequon’s Favorite Son Return to His Hometown Team? After starting the season with Nashville, Owen Miller was called up to replace Christian Yelich in April. He had a disappointing stretch of just 27 plate appearances before being designated for assignment and outrighted in July. He has been okay at the plate for the Sounds, keeping strikeouts low and his average high, but he still lacks impactful power. He has just four home runs over 326 plate appearances and a .115 ISO. So what can he do to get back to Milwaukee? For now, it seems like an uphill battle, but perhaps the most straightforward path is to play backup to Brice Turang, who has been floundering after a stellar start to the year. Even then, he’ll have to find himself in a situation where Joey Ortiz is also unavailable to fill in at second base, but Ortiz is very much needed at third right now. Overall, the outlook isn’t good, if his production doesn’t take a big step forward. Carlos Rodriguez vs. Carlos Rodríguez Did you know there are two people named Carlos Rodriguez on the team? Separated solely by their middle initial (also handedness, position, country of origin, general appearance, and a bunch of other things), it can sometimes be hard to tell the difference between the two. Luckily, I’m here to help you tell them apart. Carlos Fernando Rodríguez is the 21st-ranked prospect in Milwaukee’s system, and is a right-handed pitcher who actually debuted earlier this year, making three lukewarm starts at the height of the Brewers' starting pitcher injury crisis. With Nashville, he has a 4.56 ERA over 18 starts, but he's had a great August, posting a 2.31 ERA over 23 ⅓ innings. He’s still struggling to minimize hard contact against his fastball, but it’s coming along. I doubt that he’ll make it back to the majors this year over the aforementioned Misiorowski and Yoho, but he’s talented nonetheless. Carlos David Rodriguez is an outfielder who spent most of the season with Double-A Biloxi before joining his name twin in Triple-A. He has slashed .273/.365/.382 with two doubles and two triples over 63 plate appearances. Yet to hit his first home run with the Sounds, he’s still got a long way to go before being a potential call-up candidate, especially with an already crowded outfield in Milwaukee. 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we should just call up the prospect with the coolest name in which case jesus made should be the one making his debut this september

After bouncing back and forth between Triple-A and the majors this year, his return to the big leagues might be for good--and so might his transition to a new role. Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports Aaron Ashby has had a less-than-ideal past two years. After missing all of 2023 due to serious issues with his left shoulder, he came back this season as a diminished version of his former self. His velocity was down across the board, an understandable side effect of an extended layoff and rehabilitation process, and aside from two shaky starts, he has spent his 2024 with Triple-A Nashville. He was even less consistent in the minors, and across 84 total innings with the Sounds, he posted an 8.04 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Those are eye-popping numbers, but not in the good way. To be fair, his time with the Sounds became more of a long-term rehabilitation assignment than anything. In late May, he had already pitched nearly 40 innings to an 8.10 ERA, but Nashville manager Rick Sweet noted that he was steadily improving, gradually refining his previously nonexistent command and working back up to his pre-injury velocity. Sweet also noted that shoulder injuries are notoriously tricky and hard to come back from, so this rough patch wasn’t totally unexpected. In August, Ashby finally started to resemble the top prospect he was before injury struck. In his final six games with the Sounds, he pitched eight innings in relief and gave up just two earned runs. His strikeout rate spiked to 48.3% and his K/BB was sitting at 5.0. The biggest reason for this improvement seems to be big steps forward on his sinker. Before his August renaissance, the pitch was sitting right in that lovely “meatball” part of the zone where opposing hitters have the most success and make the best contact. Since regaining his feel, it’s now closer to the edges of the strike zone, limiting batted-ball quality. Furthermore, his velocity is back up. Prior to Aug. 6, his sinker averaged 93.9 MPH and topped out at 96.7. Since then, it’s averaging 95.5 and topping out at 98.4, numbers more in line with what he was doing pre-injury. His slider and curveball are also on an upward trend, especially as out pitches. Of the 15 total strikeouts he had in the aforementioned span, eight came against his slider and five came against his curveball. All of this was on display in his first major-league outing since Jun. 5. In a two-inning relief appearance against the Oakland Athletics, he threw 31 total pitches, 18 of which were strikes. He gave up no hits, no earned runs, and a lone walk, and he struck out two batters. His sinker remained his primary pitch, comfortably sitting around 96 MPH and topping out at 98.2. More importantly, the command had clearly improved, peppering the outside of the zone and earning him five called strikes. He only threw three sliders, but was deploying the curveball to great effect, earning three called strikes and a whiff. Ashby’s enticing upside as a pitcher is why the Brewers extended him into 2027, with two more team options. He’s a lefty with significant potential, and while it may be difficult to discern that fact from quick glances at his numbers on Baseball Reference, the deeper details point to him being a potential powerhouse arm. The larger question about his exact role on the pitching staff still remains unclear, however. Is he at his best in short bursts coming out of the bullpen? Will he ever be able to replicate the success he’s having when having to stretch out to five or six innings of work? It’s hard to make that call right now, but at just over 26 years old, Ashby is having enough success to keep himself in the big-league mix into October. View full article

In the late innings of a one-run game, one of the best Brewers bullpen arms stopped an Oakland outburst dead in its tracks. Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers headed into the seventh inning with a 5-3 lead over Oakland. After a single and stolen base by Zack Gelof, lefty Jared Koenig was tasked with getting the final out of the inning. His sixth pitch to Daz Cameron, a sinker in the heart of the strike zone, was battered into right field for an RBI double. Brent Rooker, who had already hit a double and a homer, was intentionally walked, so JJ Bleday entered the batter’s box. Koenig has been great against lefties all year, posting a 0.83 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 84 batters faced. Not only did walking Rooker reduce the threat of an admittedly hot bat, it gave Koenig an important handedness advantage. On the other hand, Bleday has been hitting lefties well this year, posting a .537 slugging percentage and an .821 OPS over 89 plate appearances. Despite his power against left-handed pitching, his strikeout (21.3%) and walk rates (6.7%) still left him vulnerable. The matchup started with some drama before the first pitch was thrown as Bleday was charged with a pitch-clock violation after taking too long to enter the box. Athletics manager Mark Kotsay came out to argue that Bleday had simply been waiting for Rooker to make it to first base but his words fell on deaf ears, giving Koenig an 0-1 head start. In fresh 0-0 counts, Koenig throws a sinker more than half the time. In 0-1 counts, he prefers to mix in his cutter and changeup more, likely to slow down the hitter after seeing a mid-90s sinker. In this case, he threw a sinker that ended up down and in on Bleday, causing him to whiff his way to an 0-2 count. With three balls to work with, Koenig likely wanted to expand the zone and avoid giving Bleday anything too juicy to hit. So he deployed a cutter that ended up in the right-handed batter box to bring the count to 1-2. He tried it again, instead placing the cutter beautifully on the outside edge of the zone but Bleday managed to foul it off to stay alive. Now at 1-2 with Bleday starting to time up his cutter, Koenig needed to stir the pot once again. 1-2 counts are when he throws his curveball most often and it typically follows a string of higher velocity pitches. With proper tunneling and the hitter’s timing sped up, Koenig’s curveballs have a whiff rate of 48.7% and a put-away percentage of 22.8%. Unfortunately in this case, Bleday took his curveball beneath the zone to bring the count to 2-2. With Bleday starting to work his way back in the count, it was time to get back to the bread and butter. With the last pitch down and in, Koenig’s fifth pitch was a sinker to the outer portion of the zone. It even had some extra juice, clocking in a 2.3 mph faster than the first sinker he threw in the at-bat, but Bleday fouled it off once again. The one part of the zone Koenig hadn’t yet attacked was the upper portion. As with most hitters in today’s game, Bleday struggles to be productive against high pitches but more importantly, he’s been terrible against pitches up and away. A quick peek at his wOBA heat map illustrates this as clear as day. With the game on the line and protecting a narrow lead, Koenig’s best bet would be the cutter. The location of that pitch has been up and away from lefties all year and while it’s actually been most effective against righties, it seemed like the right weapon in this case. And so against a 90.2 mph cutter just past the outside corner, Bleday failed to check his swing and punched out, allowing Milwaukee to preserve their 5-4 lead heading into the eighth inning. The events of this matchup seemed ultimately inconsequential as the Brewers would tack on four more insurance runs and finish the game with a 9-5 score, but this helped stop a potential downward slide for the team. Of the 27 outs earned by Milwaukee, this one had the highest win probability added at 9.5%. It was an outstanding performance by Koenig in a high-pressure situation and was a good example of what makes this pitching staff so great. View full article

The Crew's star shortstop has been swinging a hot bat, but still seems to struggle against southpaws. Why? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Since the All-Star break, Willy Adames has been excellent at the plate. His .883 OPS across 108 plate appearances is the third-best among qualified Brewers hitters, behind Jackson Chourio (.972 OPS) and William Contreras (.883 OPS). With a season OPS+ of 116 so far, it’s a big step forward after a disappointing 93 OPS+ in 2023. But alas, everything has a price. Throughout his career, Adames has been slightly better against righties than he has against lefties. The OPS difference is .087, so while meaningful, it's not totally off-putting, and he’s still able to hold his own. In fact, he actually hit lefties better (.763 OPS) than he hit righties (.701) last year, an interesting change of pace. This year, he’s gone in the other direction and has produced very lopsided splits. BA OBP SLG K% BB% vs. RHP .271 .338 .500 25.9% 9.1% vs. LHP .191 .318 .300 21.2% 15.9% At first glance, the difference in his slash line is clear. It seems like he’s able to hit for greater power against righties, but is being more conservative against lefties, striking out less and walking much more. But a closer look at the exit data actually shows that the opposite is true, sort of. Exit Velocity Launch Angle >95mph EV Barrel Rate Flyball Distance vs. RHP 88.3 mph 17.8 38.5% 22.2% 336.8 vs. LHP 90.6 mph 24.1 47.0% 22.9% 358.8 Interestingly enough, Adames has a higher average exit velocity against lefties, and almost half of his batted balls against lefties are hit harder than 95 mph. That's what we'd expect from a right-handed hitter, but the results aren't. So what gives? Are we being deceived? The culprit is the term “average,” an imperfect and incomplete metric measure of center. A quick peek at a vertical launch angle heat map helps add clarity to this predicament. vs. LHP (left) & vs. RHP (right) Adames tends to get a lot more batted balls with steep launch angles against southpaws. The “average” launch angle of 24.1 degrees would be cool if he could hit it every time, but realistically, the figure is a result of a more bimodal distribution of high fly balls and low ground balls. The launch angle distribution against righties is much more even, and his most frequent 10-degree launch angle band against them is 20-30 degrees. Against lefties, the band in which he's hit the ball most often is 40-50 degrees. Southpaws have induced a whole lot of high, catchable fly balls from Adames. On the bright side, he’s had nearly three times more plate appearances against righties (400, vs. 132 against lefties), so his overall production hasn’t been dragged down by much. On the other hand, it seems to be getting even worse. In the 26 plate appearances against lefties since the All-Star break, he has a .364 OPS. It’s a small sample, but it’s part of a larger pattern that has gone on all season. One can only hope that he doesn’t see too much southpaw opposition come the playoffs--or that he makes a dramatic adjustment by then. View full article

Just came here to note that in the 26 games since the ASB, Jackson Chourio leads all qualified Brewers with a .982 OPS.

He hasn’t thrown many innings since coming back, but the one he pitched to close out Wednesday night's nailbiter was thrilling. What does pitch-by-pitch data say about his current status? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports When Devin Williams took the mound on Jul. 28, it had been 318 days since his last competitive major-league appearance, a shaky outing in the first game of the 2023 Wild Card Series. So far, he’s back to business as usual, posting a 1.80 ERA across the five innings he has pitched, with nine strikeouts. On Wednesday night, in recording his second save of the campaign, Williams retired Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman in order, all with a one-run lead. The only instances in the last half-century of that exhilarating a baseball moment--one of the game's best closers getting out an elite trio of hitters at the top of the lineup in the ninth inning, to close out a one-run win--prior to Wednesday were: May 24, 2006: Billy Wagner gets out Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Bobby Abreu, Mets beat Phillies Jun. 11, 2009: Jonathan Papelbon sets down Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, and Mark Teixeira, Red Sox beat Yankees Jun. 29, 2023: David Bednar retires Fernando Tatis Jr, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado, Pirates beat Padres Despite the magnitude of some of his matchups, the sample size of innings and batters faced is too small to draw any major conclusions on Williams yet. Still, I wanted to take a closer look at the plentiful data from his 79 pitches thrown so far, to see whether his stuff is still up to snuff or if he’s yet to reach his final form. The first order of business is to check on his velocity and spin rates. These surface-level metrics should give us a broad idea of what he’s working with, and pitchers returning from long layoffs are often affected. Although it’s usually shoulder and arm injuries that have truly adverse effects on these characteristics, let’s compare and contrast his numbers year-over-year, for the sake of being thorough. Average Velocity (MPH) Spin Rate (RPM) 2024 Four-Seam Fastball 95.2 2322 2023 Four-Seam Fastball 94.2 2322 2024 Changeup 84.8 2713 2023 Changeup 83.8 2683 As expected, things are pretty much the same. He’s throwing a little harder, in fact, and the spin rate hasn’t changed at all since last year (kooky!). It makes sense that he’s carrying an extra tick on the heat, since he hasn’t had the workload of an entire season and is fresh. Because of the similar velocities and spin rates, it makes sense that the amount of movement on his pitches is also virtually identical compared to last year. So he’s still chuckin’ the ball real nice, but how has he commanded it thus far? Let’s start with his fastball. Last year, Williams loved going up and away with it, helping to compensate for his relatively average velocity. It had a whiff rate of 41.8% and a strikeout rate of 41.1%, excellent numbers for a pitch that’s usually thrown in the upper-90s by other elite relievers. This year, he has been great on the edges of the strike zone, barring a few misses here and there. He’s been slightly better with command against lefties, as there are a good amount of pitches to righties that are a little farther outside than you'd want. The changeup, his patented “airbender,” is a little different. It has been both his best and most frequently thrown pitch since 2020. Against the 2,152 changeups that he has thrown in his career, opposing batters are averaging just .140, a ridiculous number. Only 27 of those changeups are from 2024, but the command on them still seems pretty good. To batters at the plate, the pitch simply drops off the table and tumbles more than 40 inches, understandably leading to a lot of balls ending up below the zone. Against lefty hitters, it has the added effect of breaking nearly 20 inches to his arm side, going down and away for a frustrating hitting experience overall. He has given up two hits this year, both to lefties, but one of those was iffy to say the least. At least it gave Xavier Edwards his first major-league cycle! Here’s what it looks like when it’s working. All in all, the verdict is: it seems like he’s going to be just fine. As mentioned earlier, while a back stress fracture isn’t your average playground boo-boo, it’s much less concerning than an arm or shoulder injury. Furthermore, it seems that both he and the Brewers had a thorough rehabilitation and recovery process to ensure that he hit the ground running when coming back to the big-league level. To cap it all off, he faced the biggest test of his season last night. Not only did he cruise past three of the greatest hitters in the league, he did so in just seven pitches. He’ll undoubtedly face some hiccups later on, since that’s sort of how baseball works, but for now, it seems that he’s already picked up where he left off. If anything, it might mean that he’s even fresher for high-leverage, career-defining, postseason save opportunities. View full article