Jason Wang

Was his 2024 campaign enough for us to consider the keystone sacker a longer-term Brewer? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Milwaukee doesn’t sign a lot of long-term contracts. The largest in franchise history is still Christian Yelich’s nine-year, $215 million deal, which was signed after back-to-back MVP-quality seasons. In second place is Ryan Braun’s five-year, $105 million contract, less than half of Yelich’s total compensation and a meager offering compared to the gargantuan free-agent deals inked in today’s day and age. Based on that information alone, the odds of getting a big Brewers payday don’t seem to be in Brice Turang’s favor. The club simply doesn’t work that way, and has always been more focused on cost-effective roster construction. However, based on what they did with Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee could find a happy medium between spending money and retaining talent. Last December, Chourio signed an eight-year, $82-million contract before he had a single major-league plate appearance. It was the largest-ever deal signed for a player with his level of experience and a risk uncharacteristic of the typically frugal team. Now that we’ve gotten a taste of what he’s capable of, though, the move looks like the big-brain play of the decade. The contract will end after he turns 27, at which point the Brewers will still have two years of team options at $25 million each. In the best case, he’ll be in Milwaukee until he’s 30, giving the team 10 years of solid major-league productivity and the majority of his athletic prime. The front office was essentially betting on Chourio to be good before the other 29 teams had a chance to really catch on. Without the extension, his arbitration salaries and stock as a free agent would have continued to rise, creating a situation similar to Willy Adames's—except with an even lower chance of sticking around. A bold comparison would be Juan Soto, who debuted at a similar age. Because Soto was such an exceptional young talent, he was destined for a massive payday. By the end of his fourth season, he had already received and declined a 13-year, $350 million offer by the Nationals, so it wouldn’t be outlandish to assume Chourio could have been down a similar path. But Turang is hardly a prospect of the same quality as Chourio or Soto. He’s already 25 (so old!) and hasn’t managed to eclipse the 90 OPS+ mark in either of his two major-league seasons. Much of his productivity has come from his defensive contributions, culminating in 22 Defensive Runs Saved and a Platinum Glove in 2024. His glove has been outstanding, but a more enticing part of his case for an extension is his offensive upside. It does seem odd that a player with a .631 career OPS would be the topic of an “offensive upside” discussion, but Turang’s numbers are begging for a closer look. His entire 2023 was rough, and the .585 OPS he carried throughout the season told the story. He just couldn’t catch up to big-league fastballs, and averaged just .198 against heaters. He took a colossal step forward in 2024, however, averaging .308 against four-seam fastballs and cutting down his whiff and strikeout rates. By the end of June, his OPS against four-seam fastballs was a whopping .946. Unfortunately, old habits seemed to return in the second half of the season as his numbers against four-seamers regressed to his 2023 results, but it posed an interesting question: If Turang found a way to be consistently effective against velocity, could he be one of the best second basemen in baseball? Despite an OPS+ of just 85, he still managed 4.7 rWAR last season. He was second only to Daulton Varsho in defensive rWAR and his overall numbers could be nearing MVP levels if he gets his bat going a bit more consistently. Even more exciting is the fact that we’ve already gotten a glimpse of the peak of Turang’s offensive powers. He has struggled to hit the ball with consistent oomph in his first 1,000 MLB plate appearances, but he could be a high-average guy akin to Luis Arráez, without the fielding liabilities. Furthermore, second basemen are rarely expected to produce big power numbers, so it's not like Turang would actually be that far off what's expected of him. Thus, an extension shouldn’t be considered totally out of the question. The 2026 season will be Turang’s first year of arbitration eligibility, and if he maintains his upward trajectory of offensive improvements along with his best-in-class defense, it could soon get expensive for the club. Would Turang sign an extension like the one given to Chourio? Absolutely not, but it could be a way for the front office to lock him down for the price and duration they feel he will be the most effective. A deal more in the six-year, $45-million range (with team options that could be much more lucrative) could be good for both sides. We'll see if they go there come spring training. View full article

i was -12 at the time of this game

Perhaps this is an erroneous association but I kind of lump Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler together because both have demonstrated an ability to be effective in a major-league rotation, have ~16 inches of IVB on their heaters (didn't take a closer look than a quick peep on Baseball Savant for Walker Buehler tbh but idk looks close enough), and have taken massive steps backward after finding success. I think injury has a big part to play for both players and given how willing the Dodgers were to still utilize Buehler in key postseason moments tells me they still believe. Especially with Bobby's superior stuff and additional team control, I feel like it may be hard to pry him away. That said, the Dodgers have too many starting pitchers so maybe they should start sharing the wealth a bit amirite

“Don’t cry that it’s over, smile because it happened. Also, let’s find someone way cheaper.” -the Brewers front office, probably. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images While other teams are rolling out the red carpet for Willy Adames, Milwaukee hasn't done much to retain him. Matt Arnold made his typical PR comments of "he has earned the right to explore the market," while Pat Murphy more earnestly said "if he comes back, that means he didn't get the deal he was looking for." Meanwhile, teams like the Phillies and Red Sox have expressed explicit interest. Boston has even discussed moving Rafael Devers off of third base to allow Adames to take over. In other words, the Red Sox are willing to reinvent their entire infield to accommodate Adames, while the Brewers seem barely willing to talk about it. Thus, it seems like a foregone conclusion that he'll be with a new squad in 2025, so let's spend some time pondering some potential replacements for him. Kiké Hernández 393 PA, .229/.281/.373, 85 OPS+, 1.3 rWAR At first glance, there’s not much to write home about from the longtime Dodgers infielder. He has been described as a postseason hero and a “vibes guy”, but statistically, his offensive production was below-average. In fact, it has always been below average, as his career OPS+ is just 92. However, he made a big adjustment in the second half of 2024. Even the statistics-avoidant may have noticed this change. Earlier in the season, he and fellow Puerto Rican Martín Maldonado were having a casual conversation in which Maldonado mentioned he and other White Sox players were getting glasses after poor results from eye tests taken in spring training. Intrigued, Hernández took an eye test of his own and was diagnosed with an astigmatism in his right eye, causing slightly blurred vision. Starting right around the All-Star break, he wore glasses with a prescription lens. The results? He went from a .557 OPS before the break to a .766 OPS thereafter. He carried over this success into the postseason, hitting for a .294 average with an .808 OPS. Aside from the clear improvement in the high-level statistics, his performance against breaking balls took the biggest step forward—more than likely a symptom of his improved eyesight and being able to see pitches more clearly. It remains to be seen how long he can maintain this new version of himself at the plate, but he seems like a good fit for the Brewers. Aside from his newfound hitting prowess, he's got excellent defensive utility and could bounce several infield positions assuming Milwaukee chooses to move Joey Ortiz back to shortstop. At just over 33 years old, he likely wouldn’t sign for more than a few years with team-friendly financial terms, further incentive for the Brewers to pursue him this offseason. Amed Rosario 346 PA, .280/.306/.380, 94 OPS+, -0.1 rWAR Rosario has had a hard time finding his footing recently. Since being traded by the Guardians in 2023, he has been sent to three different teams, and has had two separate stints with the Dodgers. After a productive start to the year with the Rays, he was designated for assignment by the Dodgers and Reds to end the season. But there could still be some value to be found in his profile. First, his numbers with Tampa should hold more weight, given the small sample size of 71 total plate appearances between Cincinnati and Los Angeles. Over 275 plate appearances with the Rays, he posted a .748 OPS (114 OPS+) with a .307 batting average. His on-base percentage was held back by a league-worst 2.6% walk rate, but putting the ball in play is still cool. Just ask Luis Arráez! His quality of contact numbers are below-average and his defensive numbers are rarely good, so what would the Brewers be getting in Rosario? Well, he’s relatively young at just 29 years old, giving them time to work on the characteristics he’s still lacking. The Brewers are much better at fixing arms than bats, but it’s also hard to say how bad Rosario really is. He has had stretches of greatness and is only a few years removed from his four-win season in 2022. He’ll be cheap, so even if he’s signed and disappoints, it wouldn’t lead to any disastrous long-term effects (probably). Hyeseong Kim 567 PA, .326/.383/.458, 26 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 75 RBI, 30 SB The most enticing international free agent not named Roki Sasaki is an infielder from the Kiwoom Heroes of the KBO. A defensive whiz who has already won three Gold Glove awards, he’s the only player in league history to win at second base and shortstop. His bat isn’t too shabby either, with a career batting average of .304 over nearly 4,000 KBO plate appearances. The Brewers haven’t been big on signing international free agents from Japan or Korea, but that may be because of the often lofty prices placed on them. He has sufficient experience to be considered a full-fledged professional free agent à la Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but isn’t projected to receive nearly the same amount of money. MLB Trade Rumors is projecting him to sign a three-year, $24 million deal, comfortably within the spending comfort range of Milwaukee if they choose to go after him. As with many Korean players, it can be difficult to assess exactly what you’re getting. Some, like Ji Hwan Bae and Ji-man Choi have struggled to be regular contributors at the big-league level, while others, like Ha Seong Kim (who was Hyeseong Kim's KBO infield comrade), have been exceptional. Scouts have reported Kim as having great speed and defense, qualities the Brewers tend to love as seen in players like Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins. He’s projected to be posted next week, so we’ll see if Milwaukee ends up being one of the seriously interested parties. View full article

Milwaukee has already revived the careers of several declining pitchers. Will he be their next successful reclamation? Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images Among several other major roster moves, lefty starter Patrick Sandoval was one of four players non-tendered by the Los Angeles Angels late last week. After he struggled over the past two seasons and received Tommy John surgery in June, it made sense for the team to move on, especially with subsequent acquisitions pointing to a concerted effort to regain respectability in 2025. However, being let go doesn’t mean that he can’t still be a value buy for his next organization. Since becoming a full-time big-leaguer, Sandoval has adjusted his pitch mix to account for some critical weaknesses in his game. Over the past four years, he has largely depended on his changeup and slider, with his fastball and sinker typically combining for about 36% of his pitches. This partition makes sense, given that his non-fastball pitches are actually quite effective, while the numbers on his fastballs are, as the youth might say, “sus.” BA SLG Whiff% K% BB% Four-seam Fastball .342 .514 15.2% 10.9% 14.3% Sinker .279 .380 14.3% 9.2% 12.8% Slider .230 .315 30.8% 24.4% 7.2% Changeup .189 .286 44.6% 36.0% 8.7% His fastballs sit in the low 90s and have neither good movement nor command, making both of these pitches remarkably uncompetitive for a major-league starter. His slider also leaves something to be desired and has been a big reason for his broader statistical regression after a strong 2022 campaign. Hitters combined for an OPS of .515 against his slider from ‘21-’22, but a .694 OPS from ‘23-’24. In fact, his only saving grace could be the changeup. It’s a great pitch but the issue with changeups is that in order to be effective (especially for starting pitchers), they must play off of something. Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle can attest that all changeups and no fastballs make Jack an inconsistent presence on the mound. So we’ve concluded that Patrick Sandoval has never had even a league-average fastball, throws a declining slider, and only excels at one pitch. So why would the Brewers want him, especially after Tommy John would sideline him until late into 2025? The first reason is that he’ll be cheap. Because he’ll miss so much time from injury, Milwaukee could sign him to a back-loaded two-year deal that would hinge more on his 2026 contributions before he hits free agency in 2027. This, along with a heavier reliance on Robert Gasser, could set up an impending Freddy Peralta trade before his final year of team control in 2026. Second, Sandoval’s profile actually fits in well with the Brewers' existing staff. Milwaukee has excelled with low-velocity pitchers whose stuff seems average at best. They were able to squeeze a 3.14 ERA over 23 starts out of Wade Miley (who could barely top 90 and similarly depended on a changeup/slider combo to get his whiffs) in 2023. Colin Rea, Aaron Civale, and Bryse Wilson are other examples of pitchers with forgettable velocity who managed to find great success in the organization through the magic of friendship—and, sure, ok, the best pitching development program in baseball. Furthermore, the one thing that Sandoval has been able to do consistently is generate soft contact. Through all of his struggles in 2024, he still managed an average exit velocity of just 87.9 mph and a barrel rate of just 5%, numbers in line with his career highs. This pitch-to-contact style would sync up well with the Brewers' defensive prowess, which has been best-in-class over the past few years. Finally, the Brewers could use a left-handed starter. Last year, DL Hall made the most starts of any southpaw on the team with just seven, three more than Dallas Keuchel. The team has performed well without the need of much variety in the handedness department, but with both Cy Young awards being taken home by lefties this year, maybe there’s something to be said about having guys throw from the other end of the rubber. He’s no 2008 trade deadline CC Sabathia, but Patrick Sandoval could still be a diamond in the rough. It would be surprising if there was a significant market for him, and the Brewers are one of the few teams who could salvage what’s left of his major-league prospects. With valuable arms bound to leave in free agency in the near future, don’t undersell the possibility of him holding down the fort in their absence. View full article

Any Joe Schmoe can spend a bunch of money on free agents. It takes real guts to have a productive offseason without writing too many big checks, so how would someone as intelligent as myself run the show? This series of articles is a primer for the release of our new "You're The Brewers GM!" tool, where you play the role of Matt Arnold and build your own Brewers offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun! At this point, people are pretty clear about Milwaukee’s budgetary constraints. They’ve never signed a record-breaking contract, and it doesn’t seem like it will change soon. Using Brewer Fanatic’s new payroll tool, we can establish that as is, the roster will cost ~$112 million with an estimated final budget of $130 million. This means we have an extra $18 million to spend, quite a bit if you know where to put it, but a small amount of breathing room compared to the fat cats in the big markets. How do we make the most out of this spending limitation? Goodbye to Old Faces It makes sense to drop the team’s two most valuable pieces: Willy Adames and Devin Williams. Because he’s a free agent, Adames has technically already been dropped, but semantics aside, I don’t see the Brewers trying very hard to retain him. Matt Arnold and Pat Murphy have been as lukewarm as possible on his future with the team, and with Adames likely receiving offers north of $150 million, he has likely worn that cheese head for the last time. Because they extended the qualifying offer, the team will get an additional pick in 2025, and they have a wealth of young middle infield talent, so it’s not all bad. Devin Williams still has a full year of team control left and could be wanted by several teams. By packaging him off to a new team, the Brewers would save an estimated $8 million in arbitration and could instead rely on Trevor Megill, who already filled the closer role last year to great effect. Outside of those two names, the Brewers don’t have much control over what to do with the other large contracts on their books. Christian Yelich and William Contreras would never get traded, while Rhys Hoskins would be a hard sell given his $18 million salary and little to show. Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Civale, and Freddy Peralta are all necessary parts of the rotation, and past that, no other contracts will eclipse more than $5 million. Thus, assuming the team trades Willams for a handful of prospects, our new payroll is $104 million with ~$26 million to spend. Decision #1: Allow Adames to walk Who’s On Third? When Adames leaves, Milwaukee must fill the gap in his position. The team is lucky to have Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang, who have spent time playing shortstop, but after his platinum glove escapades in 2024, Turang is guaranteed to stay at second base. Most of Ortiz’s time in the minors was spent at shortstop, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume he’ll return to his roots. If so, that leaves an opening at third base that could be filled by Andruw Monasterio or someone else, probably the latter, given the middling results from Monasterio in the past. Unfortunately, the free-agent pickings at third base are slim. I’m more likely to sign with the Brewers than Alex Bregman, and a reunion with Brian Anderson or Luis Urías would be underwhelming at best, a waste of money. It’s also worth noting that there are more alluring options at shortstop if Ortiz is to remain at the hot corner, but none seem to fit Milwaukee’s needs and financial restrictions. So what about the trade market? The most sensible option to me is Alec Bohm. Not only are the Phillies proactively trying to trade him, but the Phillies also need a closer for 2025, so a deal could be made to swap major-leaguer for major-leaguer and a few pieces in between. Bohm took a big step forward on the way to his first All-Star selection in 2024, posting a 117 OPS+ with 44 doubles, 15 home runs, and 97 RBI. He has top-quartile strikeout and whiff numbers and is a capable fielder, so there's plenty of stuff to be happy about, and he’s undoubtedly an upgrade over Monasterio. It’s hard to say who is worth more, depending on how much Philadelphia values team control. Williams is one of the best closers in baseball but will become a free agent in 2026. Bohm has an extra year of team control but isn’t as individually impressive. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume that a deal could be done on a one-to-one basis. Unfortunately, Bohm’s projected $8 million in arbitration offsets any gains from dropping Devin Williams, but it gives the Brewers more marginal value. There have also been trade rumors about Nolan Arenado, but he’s clearly at the end of his career and will cost more than $70 million at the end of his contract. Prospect-wise, Brock Wilken and Mike Boeve are the closest to debuting, but after a lukewarm regular season and an even tougher showing in the Arizona Fall League, I think Wilken needs a little more time to bake. Boeve was putting up dominant numbers before sustaining a serious injury so he could impress enough to get called up sooner rather than later, but it will take time before he’s ready for the big leagues. Thus, calling up one of these two third-base prospects should be an “in case of the emergency move” rather than a primary option. Decision #2: Trade Devin Williams for Alec Bohm Bats for Arms, or Arms for Bats? Bats for Bats? While Adames’s departure will leave a very specific gap, Milwaukee still has a wealth of outfield talent that is too good to let hang on the bench. With Garrett Mitchell (hopefully) and Christian Yelich (hopefully) back, the trio, plus Jackson Chourio, could be the King Ghidorah of the division. It’s great to have backup options like Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins, but one has to wonder whether there’s a greater return to be had by trading someone on the bench for a player who could be of more regular use. I believe you can always have more arms, and given the team’s recent injury history, another starter or a few bullpen arms definitely couldn’t hurt. This is less of a definite move and more of an open invitation to hear from potential suitors. For example, Blake Perkins could be a great addition for any team needing a premier outfield defender with tons of team control and potentially promising peripherals. Sal Frelick profiles similarly with more emphasis on making great swing decisions and less power upside, but he also possesses a top-tier glove. Decision #3: Look to trade an outfielder for prospect equity Free Agent Fiesta The Brewers are perhaps the most boring team regarding free agency rumors. They’re rarely named as favorites, and they don’t even get the Red Sox treatment of constantly being “interested” in top names. That said, assuming a Williams/Bohm trade goes through, we’d still have another $18 million to spend before reaching our budget, a perfectly reasonable amount. Milwaukee will likely target a short-term deal, like the Hoskins contract, that’s no longer than three years and not more than $18 million annually. Furthermore, a bat should be the priority since any available starters will either be expensive or downgrade the existing staff. Finally, given the exceptional talent of the outfield, an infield or designated hitter will likely be the target. While this may be controversial, I think Joc Pederson could be the guy. He hasn't had the best interactions with Milwaukee's fans, but he did slash .275/.393/.515 over 449 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks last year and posted an OPS+ of 151, the highest of any season in his 11-year career. He walks at a 12.2% clip, hits the ball hard, and puts up consistently great numbers against right-handed pitching, posting a .908 OPS last year. Given his limitation to being a designated hitter and somewhat inconsistent numbers, MLBTradeRumors is projecting that he will receive just a two-year, $24 million contract, well within the bounds of our current payroll projections. Another free agent that should be a top priority for the Brewers is Roki Sasaki. Unlike other marquee names, he's cheap, and the total value of his contract is inherently limited by posting rules, so the front office can't use the excuse of him being too expensive this time around. He's said that he wants to sign with a small market team with a great pitching development program, and no team is a better combination of those two qualities than Milwaukee. Do they desperately need rotation help? Of course not, but any team's rotation would be better with Sasaki. Decision #4: Pursue Joc Pederson and Roki Sasaki in free agency Who To Call Up? The upside of rarely extending players or signing them to long-term contracts is the team is a revolving door with plenty of young talent on the fringes of making the big leagues. We saw a few names make their first MLB appearances in 2024 with mixed results, and 2025 brings an even more promising crop of players. If he can get his walks under control, I’d love to see Jacob Misiorowski make some bullpen appearances. Not only would it be a good way for him to get some big-league outs, but I also think his stuff would add legitimate value as a major-league reliever. Because of his elite fastball/slider combo, some scouts have already discussed his possibility of becoming a righty Josh Hader. Like Corbin Burnes before him, shorter outings of three or four batters faced could help him hone his skills while netting the team a few extra wins. Likewise, I would think 2025 would be the Craig Yoho year. After an outstanding year in 2024, he seems ready for a step up in competition from the minor leagues. With him and Misiorowski both candidates to take up some reliever innings, the team can trade away one or two of their existing reliever pieces. I have a hard time advocating for any position players to make their debuts with the same fervor. Tyler Black may get some more at-bats, and as mentioned earlier, some third-base prospects could get some playing time as well, but the farm system seems to skew more heavily toward arm talent. I would be remiss not to acknowledge the team’s #1 prospect, Jeferson Quero. With his entire 2024 missed due to injury, I think he’ll want some time in the minors to find his groove. Even if he does well, he’ll still play behind William Contreras, barring any injury. He may debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to be a core part of the major league team for a few years. Contreras will be a free agent in 2028, so maybe around then, Quero will finally become the guy. Decision #5: Call up Craig Yoho and Jacob Misiorowski to serve as relievers It's hard work coming up with the hypothetical offseason plan for a major league baseball team. It's even harder, given how solid of a roster the Brewers already have. Losing Adames and Williams in the offseason will surely hurt, but their replacements aren't schmucks by any means and could still carry the team to yet another dominant regular season. With some of the other moves listed above, Milwaukee could finally get the deep postseason run they've been searching for all these years. What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Brewers roster and hit the button below! Start Your Payroll Blueprint Now View full article

it's like trying to dig half a hole

The Tigers went from selling at the trade deadline to cracking into the postseason and making some noise. Would they be interested in an elite closer to help get them back to October in 2025? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Why They Need Him By the end of July, it seemed quite likely that the Tigers would spend their October at home. They had a record of 52-57, 10th-best in the American League, and there wasn’t a whole lot of hope for what seemed to be an average roster outside of Tarik Skubal and Riley Greene. As a result, they sold off their most valuable short-term player, Jack Flaherty, to the Dodgers in exchange for two prospects. But just when everyone began writing off their season completely, something really kooky happened. From Aug. 1 through the rest of the season, the Detroit Tigers had the second-best record in baseball, at 34-19. Winning 64% of their games in the final two months of the season allowed them to punch their ticket to the big dance, bumping the division rival Twins out of the picture on the way. The team’s OPS over this span was still just .696, painfully average, but the pitching staff combined for a 2.91 ERA, second-best in MLB. The bullpen was particularly effective, averaging just a 2.71 ERA over the final 286 innings of the year, spread out between several talented arms including Tyler Holton, Sean Guenther, and their closer Jason Foley. Foley has actually been great since his major-league debut in 2021, and will remain under team control until 2028. This will be his first year of arbitration eligibility, so the Tigers could place their faith in him entirely to continue filling the most crucial reliever role. However, if they do decide to more seriously contend for the World Series, Foley likely won’t be the high-leverage guy to get them there. While his 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 28 saves were solid in 2024, his chase rate (25.4%), whiff rate (22.3%), and strikeout rate (18.4%) were all in the bottom quartile of qualified pitchers. He mostly earned his outs through soft contact and had a decent ground ball rate of 47.8% but it’s not consistent enough to compensate for his weaknesses. Furthermore, there are signs that the team lost trust in him, as he made just one appearance in the postseason, giving up three hits and a run in the first game against the Astros. The aforementioned Tyler Holton could be another candidate to take his place, but with just two seasons of work and most of it spent in innings 6-8, he’s unproven in high leverage and still has average whiff and strikeout rates. Thus, it seems like the team is interested in exploring a more impressive option at the back of the bullpen. What They Have to Offer Since they were supposed to be on the cusp of a rebuild, the Tigers have a great farm system with five Top 100 prospects including Max Clark (#7 MLB prospect) and Jackson Jobe (#8)—the latter of whom made his debut this past year and even pitched in the postseason. The front office would likely be hesitant to part with their top talent, but there are plenty of other fair options to choose from. Someone who might be on the cusp of being too pricey (but is still worth a discussion) is Jaden Hamm. Currently the seventh-ranked Tigers prospect, Hamm is a righty starter who made 23 starts with High-A West Michigan and posted a 2.64 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 11.1 K/9. He has a good fastball with 20 inches of induced vertical break, which pairs well with his curveball and a developing changeup. He has also been working to introduce a slider into his arsenal, potentially giving him an extremely potent toolkit. He’d be a great addition to the Brewers system, but would only be on the trade table if Detroit is very much intent on making a deep postseason run in 2025. A cheaper alternative could be left-handed starter Lael Lockhart, the 26th-ranked Tigers prospect. He spent most of the season with Triple-A Toledo and posted a somewhat unsightly 5.32 ERA over 93 innings, but he also had 10.5 K/9. Things were much better over the 28 innings he had in Double-A where he managed a 1.93 ERA. The biggest obstacle seems to be his non-competitive fastball, a pitch that sits in the high 80s and doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He does have an impressive splitter with just 761 rpm on average, along with a decent curveball, but the rest of his arsenal will need refining—a task perfect for the Brewers. They do a great job of helping hurlers find an extra tick or two via mechanical adjustments, too. If Milwaukee wants to pursue a position player prospect, they could take a closer look at Gage Workman, Detroit’s 30th-ranked prospect. He had good numbers at the plate in 2024, slashing .280/.366/.476 with 29 doubles, six triples, and 18 home runs over 556 plate appearances with Triple-A Erie. The big improvement came from abandoning his switch-hitting dreams; he has chosen to bat left-handed exclusively. He split time between third base and shortstop, but with great speed and strong fielding abilities, he seems capable of fulfilling either position, a perfect complement to Joey Ortiz’s similar flexibility in the majors. Let’s face it: the Tigers are not going to fill all their needs in free agency. Since the teardown of their powerhouse early 2010s roster was completed, they’ve slipped lower and lower down the payroll rankings. In 2024, they had a total payroll of just $104 million (per FanGraphs), barely enough to cover today’s marquee free agents. Instead, they’ll seek to develop their roster through trades, and if they do want to shore up their closer role, there isn’t a better trade target out there than Devin Williams. View full article

Both the Brewers and Phillies have had shorter-than-expected postseason runs as of late. Could a Devin deal bring them both closer to the World Series? Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images Why They Need Him There isn’t a lot in common between Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Other than the phonetic parallels between “cheese” and “cheesesteak,” the main shared characteristic between the two cities is how their baseball teams have struggled to translate regular season success into meaningful playoff performances. The Phillies have had back-to-back heartbreaks after making the World Series in 2022 as a Wild Card team. In 2023, they seemed nigh untouchable at home but folded under the pressure of a seven-game Championship Series against the Diamondbacks. In 2024, they won 95 games, the second-most in baseball, but once again lost to an underdog team that barely squeezed itself into the bracket, as the Mets needed just four games to end Red October before the Phillies even made it back to the NLCS. The statistics reflect this lopsided success story. The team had a regular-season OPS of .750 (5th in MLB) and an ERA of 3.85 (11th in MLB). The rotation was especially solid, led by Cy Young finalist Zack Wheeler, and strong seasons from Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez, all of whom are still under team control in 2025. The bullpen picture was a little iffier, a problem that would rear its ugly head at the worst possible time. Hoping to recapture the success he found in 2023, they redeployed José Alvarado as their closer to subpar results, eventually pivoting to Jeff Hoffman. To his credit, Hoffman was pretty good, posting a 2.17 ERA and ten saves, but wanting a more experienced closer, the team acquired Carlos Estévez from the Angels at the deadline. With great backup options like Matt Strahm and even Orion Kerkering, it seemed like the bullpen was set, but the postseason figures told a different story. Phillies relievers combined for a gruesome 11.37 ERA across 12 ⅔ innings during the NLDS. Hoffman (40.50 ERA, 1 ⅓ IP), Alvarado (27.00 ERA, ⅔ IP), and Strahm (18.00 IP, 2 IP) couldn’t get it together, and despite pitching admirably, Estévez blew a crucial save by giving up an epic grand slam to Francisco Lindor in the final game of the series. Devin Williams doesn’t have the greatest postseason record, but with Estévez now a free agent, he could be the fix the team needs to have more pitching stability in later innings. Hoffman’s past two years have been great, and Strahm has shown incredible promise, but Williams would be the only reliever with extensive experience as a closer, giving the bullpen a leg up. What They Have to Offer The Phillies have a decent group of prospects under control, topped off by four names in MLB’s Top 100 ranking. The type of player most closely aligns with Milwaukee’s typical trade haul would be prospects ready to make the big leagues within the next year or two. Furthermore, with a strong nucleus of young position players in the lineup and farm system, they’ll likely hone in on pitchers with high developmental upside. Andrew Painter and Mick Abel fit this description well but are likely too juicy for a rental reliever. Instead, an interesting alternative could be Jean Cabrera (#13 PHI prospect), a right-handed starter who posted a 3.39 ERA over 14 starts with High-A Jersey Shore. He jumped to Double-A Reading towards the end of the season and struggled to find the same success, but he’s just turning 23 and still has plenty of time to figure things out. Scouts note him as having a sinker in the mid-90s and a four-seamer up to 98 mph, two weapons that play well off of his changeup. While likely insufficient by himself, right-handed reliever Wen-Hui Pan might also be worth a look. He posted a 1.29 ERA and 9.4 K/9 over 21 innings with High-A Jersey Shore. Scouts credit his high-velocity fastball that can touch 100 mph with a good arm-side run for his success and an outstanding splitter with very little spin. His inning count is low after missing time due to a broken pinkie he sustained in spring training, but that shouldn’t be a recurring issue. Moisés Chace was a trade piece that sent Gregory Soto to the Orioles at this year’s deadline. After performing well in High-A, the Phillies promoted him to Double-A Reading, where he made four starts. Over the 80 ⅓ innings he pitched this year, he had a 3.59 ERA and a wicked 13.9 K/9. His fastball has a lower velocity than some, but with a great ride and low vertical approach angle, he makes it work in the upper part of the strike zone, akin to Paul Sewald. His unorthodox profile could be yet another fun project for the Brewers' pitching lab to perfect. Outside of pitchers, the Phillies don’t have a lot to offer that would feasibly make the Brewers better. Milwaukee could ask for someone like Otto Kemp, an infielder with solid numbers in Single-A and Double-A, to use in a future trade to acquire someone else, but the pickings are slim otherwise. So what’ll it be for the Phillies: another awesome regular season followed by a bullpen collapse at the eleventh hour or a fresh closer ready to save the city from its rabid fans? With so much talent already on the team and just one primary area of weakness, adding Devin Williams could be like sealing up that one gap in the Death Star and making this roster impregnable. View full article

If the Brewers and Dads do a deal for Devin, how can both teams come away better than before? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Why They Need Him The Padres are fighting ferociously to escape the Dodgers' shadow, and that fight isn't getting any easier. After narrowly missing the playoffs in 2023, outstanding years from new faces helped carry them to 93 wins and a Wild Card berth in 2024. They were arguably the team to come the closest to dethroning Los Angeles in the postseason, taking the Division Series to a full five games although the lineup was completely shut down for the final 21 innings of the matchup. Nonetheless, San Diego was just one win away from overcoming the eventual World Series champions and their most heated rivals. Although they lacked the star power that the Dodgers had, their roster was incredibly well-rounded, not particularly lacking in any one area. The team’s OPS of .745 was sixth in MLB and they managed to lead all teams in batting average, at .263. Pitching-wise, they had a combined ERA of 3.86, 12th in MLB. Michael King and Dylan Cease led the rotation, while the bullpen was held down by Jeremiah Estrada, Adrián Morejón, and their primary closer Robert Suarez. To further bolster an already capable group of relievers, they even acquired Tanner Scott from the Marlins and Jason Adam from the Rays at the trade deadline to serve as their setup men. Looking ahead to 2025, San Diego’s front office has some important conversations to have. Star infielder Ha-Seong Kim is a free agent, and will probably seek greener pastures. On the bright side, Jurickson Profar is a good candidate to return, on the heels of an All-Star season in which he was also beloved in the clubhouse. Furthermore, the loss of Kim may not be the end of the world. After his shoulder surgery in late August sidelined him for the remainder of the regular season and entirety of the postseason, the team did fine with Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, Jake Cronenworth at second base, and Luis Arráez at first. If they choose to abstain from pursuing a replacement for Kim through trade or free agency, a natural step would be to recreate last year’s success by bringing aboard another standout closer, in Devin Williams. In this case, Suarez would likely shift his responsibility to pitching the eighth inning, but they can also share if they’d prefer the harmonious route. With an already great lineup; a rotation with the aforementioned King and Cease joined by veteran Yu Darvish; and a bullpen with the Airbender, the Padres might just have enough to put the other 29 teams on notice—even the defending champions. What They Have to Offer Because of their aggressive trade decisions over the past few years, the Padres have bade adieu to many of their most prized younglings. Of the teams we’ve discussed as potential trade partners so far, the Padres might have the weakest farm system. In fact, unless the Angels plan on competing or the Astros plan on reuniting Josh Hader with his old partner in crime, San Diego has the weakest inventory of any team potentially interested in Williams. But within every bag of trail mix are a few M&Ms, and the Padres’ farm system is no different. Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries are both 18-year-olds in MLB’s Top 100 prospect rankings, but they’re probably staying where they are. In fact, five of the team’s top 10 prospects were in rookie ball, which may be a little too far out for the Brewers’ liking. Bradgley Rodriguez has both a unique first name and a chance to be great, pitching to a 2.64 ERA over 61 ⅓ innings across three levels of the minors from Single-A through Double-A. With a 70-grade fastball (the same grade as Jacob Misiorowski) that sits in the upper 90s and a plus changeup, scouts credited this one-two punch for his quick ascent through the minors. If they want to pursue a starter instead, Braden Nett posted a 3.88 ERA over 19 starts, spending the vast majority of his time with High-A Fort Wayne. He’s noted as having decent carry on his fastball with a high-spin slider and a developing changeup that has yet to separate effectively from his heater. He’s a work in progress with considerable upside, a player profile that Milwaukee loves to take on. Realistic position player options are limited, but first base prospect Romeo Sanabria also shot up through three levels of the minors in 2024, slashing .288/.396/.427 with 30 doubles and 11 home runs over 546 plate appearances. He doesn’t seem to have the pop of a typical first baseman, is limited by his fielding ability and lack of speed, and saw his numbers decline quickly by the time he hit Double-A, but with great on-base skills, there’s a potential for him to be an effective bat somewhere down the line. Because of the relatively low value of the Padres’ prospects, it would make sense for several of them to be bundled together. However, with the team’s core aging quickly and their window of contention closing quicker, the time to compete is now for the Friars—and who better to push them over the top than Devin Williams? View full article

The Red Sox have been to the playoffs just once since their last World Series win in 2018. Could Devin Williams help them return to their winning ways? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Why They Need Him For the first half of the 2024 season, Boston’s pitching staff was a point of strength. Their team ERA of 3.63 was the fifth-best in MLB. While Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford led the rotation, Kenley Jansen’s 2.16 ERA and 19 saves were reminiscent of his tenure in Los Angeles. However, after the Midsummer Classic, Boston’s pitching completely fell off the pace and put up a second-half ERA of 4.63. Every pitcher in the rotation except Houck saw their numbers quickly regress, while the team was desperately trying to claw their way into October, culminating in the team’s third consecutive playoff miss. With an 81-81 record in one of the more competitive divisions in baseball, one might assume that the Red Sox will need a whole lot more than a rental closer to be competitive. That may be true if they want to win the World Series, but the team isn’t that far from having meaningful championship equity. It may not be apparent to those who don't follow the team closely, but their position players are exceptional. In addition to posting a combined OPS of .735 in 2024 (8th in MLB), the team accumulated 49 Defensive Runs Saved (6th in MLB). More established talents like Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers have helped rookies like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaeala shine. Speaking of Duran, in his first full season, he led the league in plate appearances (735), doubles (48), and triples (14) while posting 23 DRS (2nd in MLB) and 8.7 rWAR (5th in MLB). So the missing pieces lie in the pitching staff. As mentioned earlier, there are some names that showed the ability to be great but the lack of sustainability ultimately caused the downfall of the team. The rotation will be helped by Lucas Giolito (who just exercised his $19 million-player option) returning from a season lost to Tommy John surgery, as well as the aforementioned Houck and Crawford having more time to develop over the offseason. On the bullpen side, Jansen is now a free agent and actually began his offseason early after being placed on the injured list, leaving the team before their final series against the Rays. Thus, it would be astonishing if he were to somehow find himself back on the team with a new deal in 2025, so the team will need a new closer. Greg Weissert had a good year and actually finished 16 games, but he picked up just one save. He could be in contention for the job, but with poor strikeout and whiff rates, he doesn’t profile like your ideal closer. If Boston wants a knockout piece to complement a league-leading lineup, there simply isn’t a better trade target than Devin Williams. What They Have to Offer The Red Sox have a solid amount of young talent down on their farm. With a whopping six names on the MLB Top 100 list, there are plenty of options to choose from if Milwaukee decides to do business. That being said, trading a top-of-the-line prospect for a rental closer is not how they prefer to operate, so I wouldn’t expect Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, or any other marquee name packaged in a potential deal—unless the Brewers pony up some more players. Personally, I would target Jhostynxon Garcia as my main prize, simply because he has a top-five all-time name, but with his stellar minor-league results (.892 OPS, 459 PA), his stock is probably at an all-time high. Furthermore, the Brewers are stacked in the outfield, so it’s not a position of priority for the front office. More realistically, the Red Sox would be most willing to part with a prospect who’s a little further out from making the show. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (#17 Boston prospect) is a righty starter who pitched to a 2.91 ERA over 89 ⅔ innings spread across Single-A Salem and High-A Greenville. He’s noted as having good arm-side run and carry on his fastball while sporting a slider in the upper 80s with good depth. Jedixson Paez (#23) had similar numbers this season, although he spent more time in High-A and finished with a 3.17 ERA, helped by his strong command and a decent secondary arsenal consisting of a curveball and changeup. With the existing logjam in Boston’s major-league lineup (exacerbated by the rich talent at the top of the prospect funnel), there’s an opportunity to offload some top position player assets that the Red Sox won’t be able to utilize. Infielder Chase Meidroth (#11) slashed .293/.437/.401 over a full season in Triple-A Worcester at just 22 years old. He would ordinarily be too expensive for this type of deal, but because of the talent in front of him, there could be an outside chance he gets sent off this offseason. Mikey Romero (#16) is a middle infielder who spent most of his season with High-A Greenville, finishing with an .817 OPS over 276 plate appearances. With the free agency of Willy Adames raising questions about the future of the shortstop position in Milwaukee, Romero could be a contingency plan with pretty decent upside. With their most heated rivals making the World Series last season, there’s more fan pressure than ever for Boston’s front office to make some impactful moves this offseason. Compounded with the incumbent talent on the field, the Red Sox are closer to being contenders than you think, and Devin Williams could be the final piece of the puzzle... if the price is right. View full article

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Now that their World Series hangover is (hopefully) over, a new closer could bring the Rangers back to the postseason. Image courtesy of © David Kohl-Imagn Images Why They Need Him The 2023 season was a great one for Texas. They won it all for the first time in franchise history, driven by a bombastic lineup and their expensive middle infield. They headed into 2024 with a full head of steam, and many figured they would continue their newfound success. Jacob DeGrom was slated to return from the IL by the middle of the season, along with a couple of other high-octane hurlers; rookies Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford were two of the most exciting young talents in the sport; and Adolis García looked ready to cement himself as one of the most imposing outfield hitters around. Unfortunately, every player this side of Corey Seager regressed meaningfully. The lineup fell from a .790 OPS (3rd in MLB) in 2023 to a .686 OPS (23rd in MLB) this year. The pitching staff wasn’t safe, either, as the team’s rotation similarly went from a 3.96 ERA (7th in MLB) to a 4.35 ERA (21st in MLB). With a record of 27-30 by the end of May, they could never find their footing in the division again and fell out of serious postseason contention rather quickly. In fact, their Pythagorean win/loss record (based on run differential) was 75-87, three wins worse than their eventual record of 78-84, indicating that the final result was actually a bit on the lucky side. But the team isn’t done competing. With a top-10 payroll and the core of the team built around the duo of Seager and Marcus Semien, they only have a few more years in their window to remain competitive. Furthermore, they’re losing quite a few players to free agency—mostly pitchers. Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney will all be testing the market, in addition to their two most recent closers, Kirby Yates and Jose Leclerc. Leclerc had been great in 2022 and 2023, posting a 2.96 ERA over 115 ⅔ innings. He wasn’t the main closer in either of those years, but really earned his spot during the team’s World Series run, in which he finished 12 games and earned four saves. Unable to shoulder the burden of pitching higher-leverage innings during the start of last season, his ERA ballooned to 5.18 by the end of May, coinciding with the team’s broader struggles and he ceded his role to Yates. A journeyman, Yates has spent his 10-year career with six different major-league teams. His best season was undoubtedly in 2019, when he pitched to a 1.19 ERA and earned an MLB-leading 41 saves, placing him top-10 in Cy Young Award voting. He was immediately thereafter sidelined by elbow injury and a second Tommy John surgery before finally rediscovering his old form with the Rangers in 2024, posting a 1.17 ERA with 33 saves. Yates was incredible last year, but he’ll be 38 years old by the time 2025 starts and there’s no guarantee that he can stick around at this level for much longer. They could choose to re-sign him for another year and hope that he can repeat his closer success, or they could pursue a younger, more consistent talent in the form of Devin Williams. In a division as competitive as the AL West, it could be the difference between enjoying October baseball from the field or from the cold comfort of their homes. What They Have to Offer Things are not pretty for the future of the franchise, which is all the more reason for the front office to invest in the present. Following the graduation of Langford and Carter, the only MLB Top 100 prospect is infielder Sebastian Walcott (#38), who just cracked Double-A Frisco to end the minor-league season. There are also quite a few top pitching prospects (outside of Kumar Rocker, who is likely off-limits and not really a prospect anymore), like Alejandro Rosario (2.40 ERA over eight starts in High-A Hickory) and Emiliano Teodo (1.98 ERA over 19 starts in Double-A Frisco) who could interest Milwaukee. On the other hand, given their lack of starting pitching depth at the major-league level, these two starters could be called up by Texas sooner rather than later. Further down their top 30 prospects list, you can find two lefty starters in Mitch Bratt (#18 prospect) and Kohl Drake (#21). Bratt tossed a combined 110 ⅓ innings across High-A and Double-A, finishing with a 3.75 ERA for the year. At just 20 years old, he’s advancing quickly, which will likely come with a big bump in his stock value in 2025. Similarly, Drake split time between three levels of the minors from Single-A to Double-A and was successful every step of the way, finishing with a 2.29 ERA over 106 innings. Both players have an ETA of 2025, which could fit the Brewers’ existing MO of targeting major-league-ready talent with plenty of team control. Position player-wise, there isn’t a ton to write home about in pure prospect terms. Infielder Echedry Vargas has strong upside, but is a ways away from the big leagues at just 19 years old in Single-A. Most of their position players are outfielders, a place where Milwaukee has exceptional depth, but someone like Alejandro Osuna (.902 OPS, 265 PA in Double-A) could be worth a closer look. This is where the rubber meets the road. The young arms are interesting, but this system doesn't contain an easy match for Williams's value in a trade. The big-league roster does, though. Would the Rangers give up either Josh Jung or Josh H. Smith to get their much-needed relief ace? Smith and Jung each play third base, primarily. Smith has been moved around more, but as Jung has battled several injuries, he's been able to settle in there. Each has four years of team control remaining, which would be a lot to give up for one year of even a Williams-caliber closer. On the other hand, can the Rangers really make full use of both players? If negotiations between these teams get very far, you can bet Matt Arnold will at least push to get one of the Joshes to round out the infield even as he shifts resources around his roster. The Rangers’ front office has its work cut out. They are undoubtedly prioritizing the reconstruction of their rotation, but if they want to get the best out of the remaining years of their superstars, they’ll need someone to close the show as well. Whether that person can be Williams depends on how badly they want that, and what they're willing to pay. View full article

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This year’s hottest pitching free agent has been earmarked for a big-market team, but could Milwaukee be a dark horse candidate to sign him? Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images For the second year in a row, the most sought-after pitching talent of the offseason is coming from Japan. One year after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed the most lucrative pitcher contract in MLB history, a younger but equally exciting Japanese talent has captured the attention of baseball fans. Roki Sasaki’s talents justify the hype that follows him. His numbers in NPB have been unreal, posting a cumulative 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, and 5.74 K/BB over 394 ⅓ career innings at just 23 years old. He tossed 17 consecutive perfect innings along the way, an unthinkable feat in today’s game. To make him even more appealing, he’ll follow in Shohei Ohtani's footsteps by choosing the path of a typical international amateur free agent prospect rather than an established superstar. Because he’s being posted before turning 25, the team that signs him will pay him a modest signing bonus from the team’s international bonus pool, followed by league minimum before he hits arbitration and follows the traditional free agent service time restrictions. In other words, for the price of an average MLB contract, one lucky team will get a 6’2” power pitcher with a triple-digit fastball, physics-defying splitter, wicked slider, and full team control. This naturally led many to believe he would end up at a big market team, preferably one with a competitive roster and World Series aspirations. To many, he’ll inevitably find himself beside his Samurai Japan teammates Yamamoto and Ohtani on the Dodgers. Still, new information has suggested that he might prefer playing for a sleepier, cozier town like Milwaukee. First of all, the most common reason to sign with a big market team is that they tend to have bigger pockets, but with all of the financial restrictions on their contract, every team will be limited to the same price. Second, sources stated that Sasaki has strongly disliked the pressure of major media markets, namely the Japanese tabloids that have treated him unfairly for the past two years of his stardom. Third, he has emphasized the importance of joining a competitive roster and being part of a strong developmental program. Thus, any small market team with a knack for getting the best out of their arm talent seems to be a strong fit for his preferences. Sound familiar? Milwaukee is far from a podunk village, but the Brewers might as well be located in Yuba compared to Los Angeles and New York. The press is rarely as critical of players and tends to provide a fair analysis of things, satisfying his first condition. Second, and perhaps most importantly, few organizations have excelled at pitching development to the extent the Brewers have. Time and time again, the team has taken undervalued assets and turned things around. Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Jared Koenig, and Bryan Hudson are just a few examples from this season alone. Since 2019, the Brewers’ starters have a combined ERA of 3.87, which is fourth in MLB, and they’ve done so without a single major free-agent pitcher signing, something only the Rays have done better. Few teams marry great pitching development with a laidback media environment, and perhaps none have a better combination than the Brewers. The front office hasn’t been as active in signing Japanese players as some other teams around the league. Still, with these unique conditions and the seemingly unlimited upside of Sasaki, he could be the first player to buck the trend. View full article