Jason Wang

The Brewers might have solved their lack of power by simply asking one guy to hit the ball harder. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images I remember what I was doing when I heard that the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million deal. I was ordering a slice of pizza while on my way to play catch with a buddy at a local park. I had been bearish on the prospect of the Brewers spending big money (at least to them) on a slugger, but they proved me wrong, and I was so shocked I almost forgot to ask for extra pineapple on my pizza. By now, the hype behind the signing has long since died down. Hoskins had the worst season of his career in nearly every category and managed an OPS+ of just 98, far below the expectations he had come in with. To his credit, he had just spent all of 2023 recovering from a torn ACL, and perhaps he needed more time to get back to playing baseball at a high level. Regardless of the cause, many were disappointed and felt that the team’s depth at first base was still a glaring weakness. If you want a deeper dive into what made his year so rough, check out Jack Stern’s analysis. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The most recent baseball we’ve seen from Rhys Hoskins has been in spring training, and boy, does it look and sound different. Over the 25 plate appearances he has had so far, he’s slashing .350/.480/1.100 for a wRC+ of 269. Five of his seven hits have been home runs, and these aren’t short porch shots to right field at Fenway Park. These are blasts, rockets, moonshots, missiles, whatever you call them. Even the sound of these shots is pleasing to the ears and satisfying to the senses. Yes, it’s spring training which means that it’s a small sample size where the level of competition isn’t quite the same as the regular season. It would be foolish to extrapolate an entire season’s worth of production based on this data but it should, at the very least, be an encouraging sign that he’s back to the Hoskins of old. Furthermore, the two home runs above were against Justin Steele and Tyler Anderson, not exactly your average Single-A prospects just trying to get some work in before returning to the minor league grind. With an optimized Hoskins, the lost power from letting Willy Adames walk in free agency might not sting as much. There isn’t much room for him to hit more home runs than he did last year (26) as that’s typically about where he’s been throughout his career. However, he only put together 14 doubles, significantly lower than the ~30 he’s usually good for. All of this is quite a big “if.” There’s still time for his numbers to regress and even if they don’t, an 162-game season is a totally different environment than a short set of exhibition games. For reference, he also had a respectable .810 OPS during last year’s spring training with four homers and a double. Nonetheless, it’s seeming more and more like some rest and time in the lab was exactly what he needed to be the first baseman the team was promised a year ago. View full article

Spring training has already given us a glimpse into their plan to cause a ruckus on the basepaths this season. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images When you think of a “scrappy” baseball player, what do you imagine? Probably a guy no taller than 5-foot-9, who goes after every batted ball on defense and runs like the wind on offense. It’s a term that actually describes the Brewers pretty well. They’ve become known for exceeding expectations year in and year out, without having to break the bank, and much of that is due to the “scrappiness” of their roster. With two consecutive team Gold Glove Awards, their defense is already best-in-class. Now, it seems that baserunning has come under the microscope. Milwaukee currently leads all of spring training in stolen bases, with 27. They also took the top spot last year, with a final total of 45. This enthusiasm to snag an extra 90 feet is interesting, given that these are exhibition games and running the bases can sometimes lead to more serious injury, but it’s clear that the organization is placing considerable value on getting as many reps as possible before the start of the regular season. Even more intriguing is the team’s tendency to attempt a steal of third base with two outs, going against the grain of not making the final out at third base. It's easy to see why most teams don't make those tries. Most of the time, most players will score from second base on a single to the outfield, anyway. The tradeoff is that it can be an easier steal, given the unorthodox nature of the action, and it opens the door to scoring off of an infield hit, a fielding error, or even a wild pitch. On the surface, it may seem like risky business, but it’s clear that these are calculated risks, rather than decisions made with reckless abandon. When asked about whether stealing bases is a point of focus for the team this spring, Pat Murphy said: More than anything, it seems like the team is getting used to learning the subtle nuances of stealing. Especially given how young the team is on average, learning these small but impactful aspects of the game is what separates the wheat from the chaff in the big leagues. And with the speed on the roster, why shouldn’t they? Brice Turang placed third in stolen bases in 2024, snagging 50 bags, and he seems to be setting the standard for the other speedsters on the team with four other Brewers stealing 20 or more bases last year. In 2025, the lineup is poised to steal even more. Sal Frelick and Caleb Durbin are starting to come into their own, and even Christian Yelich, who is returning from injury, is planning to partake. It'll be a slow and steady ramp-up for him, and he isn't planning on taking any wild slides or head-first dives, especially in spring training. He did steal 28 bags in 2023 and was on pace to break his personal single-season record of 30 before going down with a back injury last year. When asked about whether this increase in aggression will translate over into the regular season, Murphy had this to say: Of course, spring training doesn’t always translate to the regular season. In fact, it doesn’t really translate at all. The sample sizes are much smaller; the focus of each game is primarily to see live pitching; and teams aren’t trying to win, as much as they are trying to just work on things. Taking big leads and stealing in a controlled environment where the downside risk is negligible might not be a perfect indicator of what’s to come in 2025. Furthermore, speed by itself isn’t enough to be successful in the sport of baseball, especially since you need to get on base to be able to really use it. However, it’s no secret that Milwaukee possesses a rare combination of on-base ability with speed in the lineup, and they’ve been known to use it. They stole a combined 217 bases in 2024, just six fewer than the MLB-leading Nationals and a massive increase over the 129 they stole in 2023. Aggression on the basepaths is up across the board, and much of this is a consequence of the new rules introduced by MLB for the 2023 season. The pitch timer (complete with limits on pickoff throws by pitchers) and the enlarged bases made the whole process less risky and more beneficial. For the Brewers, getting a runner from first base into scoring position via small ball could be a substitute for the lack of power in the lineup. With the squad’s current abilities and mindset, expect big things from them heading into next year. View full article

The season hasn’t even started yet, but Milwaukee’s pile of deferred dreams and shaky shoulders continues to grow. Pitching injuries have become more frequent across the league, but sometimes it feels like the Brewers get the worst of it. At one point, the team’s injured list contained enough talent to make up a pretty serviceable rotation. I, for one, thought that 2025 would bring a new year with a clean bill of health, but reality is rarely that kind. When asked about why it was so important for the team to pick up Jose Quintana, Pat Murphy recently said: To clarify, the six injured arms he's thinking of are (I think): Aaron Ashby (oblique strain, out for two weeks) DL Hall (lat strain, placed on the 60-day IL) Brandon Woodruff (recovering from shoulder surgery) Robert Gasser (recovering from Tommy John surgery) Thomas Pannone (forearm injury) JB Bukauskas (recovering from lat surgery, expected to miss the season) While it’s true that not all of these will necessarily result in completely lost seasons, it’s clear that Murphy and the front office are playing it on the safe side. Last year, they did a great job of pivoting, acquiring Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale at the trade deadline while even getting some satisfactory starting work from Bryse Wilson. Furthermore, Quintana has a lot to offer outside of mere risk mitigation, so it'll be intriguing to see what he can accomplish in his age-36 season. But are things really as bad as they seem? It’s easy to have tunnel vision as a sports fan and catastrophize things, and it wouldn’t be out of line to say that Milwaukee has had bad health luck recently, especially in a sport as superstitious as baseball. However, the Brewers aren’t the only ones dealing with this issue. As stated earlier, the increased prevalence of pitcher injuries has become a league-wide issue, so much so that the players’ association and MLB have gone back and forth deciding who to blame. The Dodgers are a great example of another club that felt the adverse effects last year. Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Clayton Kershaw are just a few names that missed significant time in 2024 and in cases like Dustin May, the causes of these injuries were even more freakish than Jakob Junis getting hit by a fly ball during batting practice. This year, it seems like other teams are facing similar troubles. A quick peek around the news will show you that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers yet again have had recent incidents that will affect their pitching staffs at least for the start of the season. The glass-half-empty people will say that this is just another sign from a higher power that the Brewers are never meant to make a deep playoff run or win a World Series. Instead, the organization will be forever doomed to above-average regular season results followed by disappointing playoff performances. The glass-half-full people will say that it’s a miracle that in the face of all these setbacks, the team has always found a way to win. There's a very good chance the team will lose even more arms during the season. However, there's an equally good chance that no matter who they lose, they'll find a way to fill in the gaps and continue to be one of the most intelligently-run organizations in MLB today. View full article

He has been a successful, occasionally excellent big-league starter for the past 13 years. Can the Brewers make him even better? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Milwaukee’s approach to signing pitchers reminds me of house-flipping. They typically look to acquire someone whose stock is at an all-time low, but who still has some life left in his arm and some intrinsic stuff to work with. Aaron Civale, Frankie Montas, and Bryse Wilson are a few recent examples of this sort of practice that had decent results. Rarely does the team go out and pick up a free-agent pitcher who has just come off of a year with a 3.75 ERA over 170 ⅓ innings but it seems like Jose Quintana will be the first in a while. In fact, outside of a 2021 marred by injury, he has been a consistent starter since he debuted in 2012. If he’s as good as his numbers say, how were the frugal Brewers able to get their hands on him without breaking the bank? Quintana has a few things going against him. First, he’s 36 years old, which (in baseball terms) translates to pretty darn old. He’s not quite 58-year-old Satchel Paige on the 1965 Kansas City Athletics, but baseball is quickly becoming a young man’s game. For context, only two free-agent starters older than 34 were able to lock down multi-year deals: Matthew Boyd (two-year deal with the Cubs) and Nathan Eovaldi (three-year deal with the Rangers). Second, his underlying numbers from 2024 don’t support his ERA as much as one would like. His FIP was 4.56, largely driven by a strikeout rate of just 18.8% and a walk rate of 8.8%. With an average fastball velocity just barely above 90 mph and secondary pitches with below-average movement, this shouldn’t be surprising. Presumably, his velocity and movement will only get worse with age. Quintana is likely aware of this, though, and made a big adjustment to his arsenal after inking a two-year deal with the Mets in 2023. Historically, he had used the four-seam fastball as his primary weapon, with mixed results. It was the most effective with the Cardinals in 2022, but his first year in Queens saw him struggle to rediscover what made it great. Part of this was likely due to the stress fracture that limited him to just 75 ⅔ innings that year. He decided to pivot to a highly effective sinker that has taken the top spot in his toolkit ever since. For older pitchers with fading velocity, sinkers can be extremely effective. Compared to cutters and four-seam fastballs, the whiff rates are typically lower to begin with, so there’s no need to be as dominant. There are some notable exceptions, like Josh Hader (throws a riding sinker) and Paul Skenes (throws a splinker), but generally, as long as you can induce soft contact, it can play. In Quintana’s case, his sinker is a major contributor to his 48.8% ground ball rate, but because he’s also got good command, he can make it even better by getting called strikes on the edges. This combination is what gave him the seventh-best sinker run value in MLB last year. But wait, if his command with the sinker is so good, then why is his walk rate still worse than the league average? To me, the clear culprit is his changeup. Despite a stellar .203 opposing batting average, .260 opposing slugging percentage, and a 36.7% whiff rate, his changeup had a run value of 0 last year. This leads me to believe that many of these off-speed offerings were wasted pitches that resulted in balls. It also doesn’t help that there’s only about a 5-mph difference between his changeup and fastball on average, making both pitches comparatively less effective. Given all of this information, it seems that a major key to success will be ensuring his fastball arsenal and proficiency with the sinker will align with Milwaukee’s elite infield defense. Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, and whoever ends up getting most of the reps at third base should form an excellent trio that converts ground balls into outs at one of the best rates in baseball. This specific aspect of his profile is likely what made him especially enticing for Milwaukee, as they’ve shown a similar pattern in identifying defensive synergies with other newly acquired pitchers. As for his changeup, we’ll have to wait and see whether he decides to keep it around or toys with a different pitch. He hasn’t thrown a slider in years, but it could give him more optionality to his glove side. Alternatively, if he wants to keep another arm-side option around, he could follow in the footsteps of Shota Imanaga and develop a rare lefty splitter. All 29 other teams had the opportunity to sign Quintana, and they all passed, leaving the Brewers in position to sign him for just $4.25 million. Sure, his numbers under the hood may be concerning and he’s far closer to the end of his career than he is to his prime, but there’s still a lot to like about what he can potentially bring to an already intriguing Brewers rotation. View full article

After an offseason of uncertainty regarding how to enjoy the beauty of Milwaukee baseball on television this year, it seems things have finally gotten cleared up. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images At the end of 2024, the Brewers finally reached a new agreement with Main Street Sports Group (formerly Diamond Sports Group) that would allow the latter to distribute and produce telecasts for the 2025 season. This means that much of the existing system will remain the same, albeit under a new name: the FanDuel Sports Network. This deal reversed the original announcement that the Brewers would follow in the footsteps of the Twins and Guardians, who have moved away from the regional sports network model and toward broadcasting their games on a league-operated platform. Thus, FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin (formerly Bally Sports Wisconsin) will maintain their existing rights to all of Milwaukee’s regular-season games not selected for exclusive national showcases (e.g., Sunday Night Baseball), as well as previously existing coverage for teams like the Milwaukee Bucks. If you’re an in-market viewer, you can subscribe directly through the FanDuel Sports Network or Amazon Prime Video. If you’d prefer access through an existing pay TV provider, you can check out your options here. Notable providers include DIRECTV, Fubo, Spectrum, and TDS Telecom. If you’re an out-of-market viewer, your best option is to purchase an MLB.tv subscription—for all teams or just the Milwaukee Brewers if you want to save a few dollars. Because the most recent agreement with FanDuel Sports Network is a one-year “prove-it” deal, things are subject to change heading into 2026. If paying for television is unthinkable to you then the Brewers have something for you too! This year, Milwaukee is partnering with Good Karma Brands to provide free broadcasts of ten regular season games and four spring training games. In Milwaukee, these games will be broadcast on WITI FOX-6 for the following games: Monday, 5/31 vs. KCR Tuesday, 4/15 vs. DET Tuesday, 5/20 vs. BAL Tuesday, 6/17 vs. CHC Tuesday, 6/24 vs. PIT Tuesday, 7/8 vs. LAD Tuesday, 7/29 vs. CHC Tuesday, 8/5 vs. ATL Tuesday, 8/19 vs. CHC Tuesday, 8/9 vs. TEX How To Watch Brewers Baseball If You’re In-Market (Wisconsin, Eastern Minnesota, Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Northwest Illinois, Iowa) FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin (FKA Bally Sports Wisconsin) $122.99 for the season (through 9/19) $189.99 per year $19.99 per month How To Watch Brewers Baseball If You’re Out-Of-Market MLB.tv $149.99 for regular-season all-team access $29.99 per month $129.99 for regular-season single-team access Where You Can Find Nationally Televised Games and When They Broadcast Friday Night Baseball (Apple TV+, Streaming Only) FOX Saturday Baseball (Fox, Broadcast or Cable Streaming Only) Sunday Night Baseball (ESPN, Cable & Streaming Options) Sunday Leadoff (Roku Channel, Streaming Only, May-Aug.) View full article

Is Milwaukee getting Nasty Nestor 🥵 or are they getting Nasty Nestor 🤢? Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images / © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images What Went Wrong in 2024? All things considered, 2024 wasn’t too bad for Nestor Cortes. 2023 was a year marred by a left rotator cuff strain that limited him to just 63 ⅓ innings over 12 starts. He pitched well throughout last season, even getting the Opening Day nod (since Gerrit Cole was sidelined with injury) and accumulating a 3.77 ERA over 174 ⅓ innings. He ran into more injuries during the postseason, this time a left elbow flexor strain, but recovered quickly enough to be a part of one of the most memorable playoff moments of all time... which unfortunately came at his expense. If you were to take a brief peek at his Savant page, you might be wholly unimpressed with what you see. He was league-average or below in every Statcast measurement other than walk rate, and was in the bottom quartile for hard-hit rate, something that’s generally not a very good sign of success. He didn’t throw very hard, didn’t miss a lot of bats, didn’t get a lot of balls on the ground, and didn’t have a particularly effective breaking ball or offspeed offering. Of the six different pitches he threw last season, only two had a total run value above zero: his four-seam fastball and cutter. What Can Go Right in 2025? What makes Cortes an interesting acquisition for the Brewers specifically is waiting to see what the organization can do with his unorthodox skillset. Despite the apparent lack of “stuff,” he’s a cunning player with a lot of non-obvious value. There’s a reason that even with underwhelming Statcast percentiles, his xERA was still just 3.62 last year. While most pitch-to-contact arms aim to induce soft contact through ground balls, he goes the other way, baiting batters to get under his pitches rather than on top. This creates loud and often hard contact but a steep enough launch angle to limit the actual damage of the batted ball. This can be shown through his 2024 fly ball rate of 32.1%, nearly nine percent higher than the MLB average. Another way to look at this is by using Statcast’s batted ball categories which seek to characterize batted balls based on launch angle. Cortes boasts an “Under %”, meaning batted balls with >40 degree launch angles, of 34.7%, nearly 12% higher than the MLB average. This batted ball by known slugger Jhonkensy “Big Christmas” Noel was 102.3 mph off the bat but required barely any movement from Aaron Judge to land safely as an out: Similarly, this ball left Jo Adell’s bat at 102.1 mph but traveled just 199 feet because of the steep 64 degree launch angle: Unfortunately, this strategy is risky. If opposing hitters do manage to square up balls, they typically end up going for extra bases or in the seats. Much of the damage is done against his four-seam fastball and sweeper, against which batters are slugging .443 and .511, respectively. Here's where the Brewers and their notorious pitching development comes in. They’ll likely make some tweaks to his pitch mix and one big change that could come around is the refinement of a non-fastball pitch. In 2024, 73.6% of the pitches he threw were some form of fastball (four-seam, cutter, sinker). This has been the case over the past few years and is likely due to a perceived lack of effectiveness in the rest of his arsenal. I say perceived, because Stuff+ measurements actually rate his breaking balls pretty highly, particularly his slider. The Yankees may not have bothered to wean him off his fastball addiction, but Milwaukee will want to maximize his craftiness by fleshing out his other offerings which will keep opposing hitters on their toes, in turn likely improving the results on his fastball. How Will This Impact The 2025 Brewers? It should go without saying that having a great starter in the rotation has obvious value. This is even more important in the context of Milwaukee given much of the uncertainty surrounding their pitching staff. Will we see an injury-diminished version of Brandon Woodruff? Will Tobias Myers see a sophomore slump? Did Aaron Civale really fix whatever was hindering him while in Tampa? Can DL Hall live up to his potential? Nestor Cortes is one of these question marks as well, but to me, he has a higher floor than some of the other names in the rotation. With few investments made this offseason to meaningfully improve the offensive output of the lineup, it seems that the front office will, once again, lean on the team’s run prevention abilities to get their wins. With plenty of other options to choose from, there must have been a reason Milwaukee chose to select Nestor Cortes as the return for their prized closer. We’ll just have to wait and see what that reason was. View full article

The Brewers signed the outfielder to a minor league deal, but will he see any major league action? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Manuel Margot has been in the big leagues for a while. He spent his best years with the Padres and Rays, but most recently, he had quite a poor year with the Twins, slashing .238/.289/.337 over 343 plate appearances. He also had a peculiar tendency to be regularly called on to pinch hit despite not being particularly adept at the role. On the bright side, he made league history, becoming the first player ever to go 0-29 (and later 0-30) in a season as a pinch hitter. His $12 million mutual option was understandably declined by the Twins, allowing him to sign a free-agent deal with the Brewers, so what does he add to the team, if anything? Offensively, Margot has never been much to write home about. Over his roughly 3,000 big league plate appearances, he has only managed a career OPS+ of 90. On the bright side, at least he’s consistently below average, with 2022 as the only season in his career where he managed offensive production above league average (104 OPS+). Before 2023, it was his fielding prowess from which he made a living. From 2016 - 2022, he accumulated 44 Defensive Runs Saved across the three outfield positions but spent the lion’s share of his innings in center. Unfortunately, he went from toting a reliable glove to a subpar defender starting in 2023. He has always had a weak arm, but in years past, he relied on translating his speed into excellent range, allowing him to cover more ground than most. Unfortunately, all that would change after he tore the patellar tendon in his right knee in the middle of 2022, causing him to miss half the season. This began a gradual decline in his speed, dragging him from an 88th percentile sprint speed in 2021 to a 53rd percentile in 2024. Without improvements to his arm or bat, his main upside as a player is now gone. However, it’s not all bad. He has proven the ability to be a serviceable outfielder so long as he isn’t expected to cover large swaths of land. Considering his weak arm, he should be okay in left field. He also struggled primarily against righties in Minnesota but had decent numbers against left-handed pitching, posting a .713 OPS over 171 plate appearances. His bat-to-ball skills are still respectable, and his xBA of .261 could suggest he was a little unlucky with his actual BA of .238 last season. Ultimately, this is a move to add veteran depth that can be called upon in the event of injury. Christian Yelich has said that he should be ready for Opening Day, but given his persistent back issues, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to stick around as consistently as fans might hope. Throw in Garrett Mitchell's penchant for finding new and inventive ways to break his body, and getting backup outfielders seems like a no-brainer. Acquiring Margot allows Milwaukee to get some cheap depth to act as insurance. Similar to their earlier pickup of Jorge Alfaro, this seems like a low-risk, low-reward pickup. This late in the offseason, it would have been foolish to assume that the Brewers would have done otherwise. View full article

Two years after his debut, it’s time for the Brewers' annual spring training hot topic to decide who he wants to be: potential All-Star, or eventual liability. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images / © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images What Went Wrong in 2024? After 747 major-league plate appearances, I think we have enough data to describe Sal Frelick fairly accurately—with numbers to back it up. Defensively, he’s stellar. He won a Gold Glove for his efforts in the outfield last season, accumulating a combined 15 Defensive Runs Saved across all three outfield positions. He spent most of his time in right field, where he found the most success, but he was also an above-average center fielder. With very good speed, he has an exceptional ability to cover long distances and chase down even the farthest-hit fly balls. Sometimes, he even goes a bit over the wall for them. NU53R2VfVjBZQUhRPT1fVkFNSEFnWlFCd1FBWGdCUVV3QUFWVk1FQUZoVFUxRUFWbGNIVVFkVFVGVlZCZ1pV.mp4 Offensively, it’s a different story. As a rookie, he was known more for his glove than his bat, but he still managed a 90 OPS+. With a starting spot in the lineup over a full season, his offensive numbers got a little worse, falling to an 83 OPS+. The most glaring weakness in his hitting is his lack of pop. He placed in the 1st percentile of qualified hitters for average exit velocity (83.4 mph), barrel rate (0.8%), and hard-hit rate (19.5%). This culminated in just two home runs last year, and an ISO of just .076—less than half the league-average ISO of .161. To make matters even worse, his low average launch angle of 9.7 degrees further limits his ability to go for extra bases. But it goes even deeper than that. Thanks to bat-tracking data that was introduced to Statcast, we can get a closer look as to whether a player is truly getting all that he can out of his swing. The two figures that are now measured on Baseball Savant are swing speed and squared-up rate. The former is pretty straightforward, but the latter measures something far more helpful. Statcast defines squared-up rate as: Sal Frelick has 3rd-percentile bat speed, but a 92nd-percentile squared-up rate, meaning he’s actually getting all that he can out of his current swing. With a relatively small 5-foot-8, 185-pound frame, he might just not have the natural oomph of his bigger compatriots. What Can Go Right in 2025? The great thing about baseball is that there isn’t just one way to play the game. Sure, big guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can get balls out of the park at 110 mph no problem, but smaller guys like Jose Altuve and Donovan Solano have found ways to stick around by playing to their strengths. Frelick’s strength is his bat-to-ball skills. His whiff rate of just 12.9% and his strikeout rate of 14.9% place him among the game’s best contact kings. Interestingly, his chase rate of 25.8% isn’t as exceptional, but it’s definitely better than average. To me, the ideal player for Frelick to strive toward would be Steven Kwan. Both Frelick and Kwan are outstanding outfielders who have smaller frames, with limited natural power. Here is how their key offensive numbers stack up: Average EV LA Sweet-Spot Rate Chase Rate Whiff Rate K Rate BB Rate Steven Kwan 86.3 mph 38.5% 19.2% 8.2% 9.4% 9.8% Sal Frelick 83.4 mph 30.0% 25.8% 12.9% 14.9% 7.4% Kwan has been much better at lifting the ball just the right amount, boasting a launch angle sweet-spot rate in the top quartile of MLB. Additionally, he has a higher walk rate that gives him an additional boost to his on-base percentage, which was .368 in 2024. If Frelick can dial in his skillset to have many of the same qualities, not only could he improve his batting average and overall production at the plate, he could utilize his speed on the basepaths and not just the outfield. How Will This Impact the 2025 Brewers? Last year, the Brewers' offense was actually quite good, posting a team OPS of .729 which landed them 10th in MLB. Unfortunately, they’ve lost Willy Adames, who had the second-highest OPS+ of qualified hitters on the team. Without any major lineup additions to compensate, they’ll have to lean on some of their younger hitters to take a big step forward. With the Cubs looming as a major divisional threat, 2025 might offer the toughest road to a division win for the Brewers in several years. If Frelick can adjust his offensive approach and put up an OPS+ of 100-110 while maintaining his outstanding work in the outfield, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see him accumulate 3-4 rWAR. In a situation where that could end up being the difference between a playoff spot and watching October from the quasi-comfort of their offseason homes, this improvement might not only be a make-or-break for young Salvatore, it could make or break Milwaukee’s whole season. View full article

Quite a few fresh faces are joining the Arizona team this spring. Who are the players that will be making their organizational debuts, and will they be able to stick around? Major League Additions LHP Tyler Alexander A second-round pick by the Tigers in the 2015 draft, Alexander is the Brewers’ most recent major-league acquisition. After five years in Detroit’s rotation, he was designated for assignment and found himself in Tampa Bay. He threw 7 ⅓ perfect innings in May 2024, but things quickly started to regress from there. He had a 5.10 ERA over 107 ⅔ innings and was ultimately non-tendered, leading him to sign a one-year deal with Milwaukee. Jack Stern did a great deep dive on what he could bring to the team and how he currently slots in the rotation, but at the very least, he gives the roster depth while they navigate the back half of their 2024 injury pandemic that still affects players like DL Hall and Robert Gasser. RHP Grant Anderson Anderson was a late selection by the Mariners in the 2018 draft and has been a consistently good minor league arm ever since. While he did earn a call-up in 2023, his results in the big leagues have been subpar, to say the least. He has seemingly struggled to carry over the success he has had in Triple-A, posting a 2.93 ERA over 26 games with Triple-A Round Rock while pitching an 8.10 ERA in 23 games with the Rangers. After Texas signed Joc Pederson, he was designated for assignment to make room on the roster before being traded to the Brewers in exchange for Mason Molina. Jack Stern wrote a more detailed analysis of Anderson, calling him a “funky relief project,” which seems to sum it up quite well. There’s potential there, but it’ll have to be unlocked. RHP Elvin Rodríguez Originally signed as an international free agent by the Angels in 2014, he was sent to the Tigers in 2017 as part of the Justin Upton trade and debuted with Detroit in 2022, making five starts to an incredible 10.62 ERA over 29 ⅔ innings. He later elected free agency after being sent outright to Triple-A Toledo and signed a minor league contract with the Rays. He pitched well enough with Triple-A Durham to get called up and toss 3 ⅓ perfect innings. The next day, he was designated for assignment, and he finished the year with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. After pitching to a 1.80 ERA for them in 2024, he returned to MLB by signing a one-year deal with Milwaukee that included a club option for 2026. If you want to read more about what he can offer an already stacked pitching staff, check out Jack Stern’s write-up here. LHP Connor Thomas Thomas was drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 draft by the Cardinals and spent his entire minor league career with the organization, hitting a real groove with Triple-A Memphis in 2024. He posted a 2.89 ERA over 90 ⅓ innings, primarily serving as a long reliever. He ended up as a sneaky Rule 5 Draft pick that could have a big impact next season. Jack Stern likened him to fellow long reliever Bryse Wilson in his breakdown, which can be found here. LHP Grant Wolfram One interesting thing about Wolfram is that he was drafted later in college than he was in high school, dropping from the 17th round in 2015 to the 18th round in 2018. He saw steady improvement throughout his minor league career culminating in a strong 2024, posting a 3.34 ERA over 56 ⅔ innings out of the bullpen with Triple-A Round Rock. He elected free agency at the end of the season and chose to sign a major-league deal with the Brewers in December. Matt Trueblood drew parallels between Wolfram and fellow southpaw Bryan Hudson in his breakdown of the move. If that ends up being the case, the bullpen could have even more depth than people were expecting. Non-Roster Invitees RHP Deivi García García was signed in 2015 by the New York Yankees as an international free agent. His first few years of professional baseball were reasonably productive, and he made it to Triple-A Scranton by 2019 and to the major-league rotation by 2020. He struggled at the higher levels of baseball and dealt with a finger injury in 2022, causing his numbers to balloon uncontrollably. After transitioning to the bullpen in 2023, he was designated for assignment and was claimed by the White Sox. His problems followed him to Chicago, posting a 5.40 ERA over 23 ⅓ total innings, and he elected free agency at the end of the season before signing a minor league deal with Milwaukee. He has quite a few issues to iron out and is quite far from earning a spot in the elite Brewers bullpen, but clearly, there’s something the organization sees. It may not be much, but it’s there, and he’s just 25 years old, giving him plenty of time before he hits his athletic prime. RHP Vinny Nittoli Nittoli was a 25th-round pick in the 2014 draft and didn’t make his major league debut until 2021 when he made a single one-inning relief appearance for the Mariners. He has bounced around to 11 different organizations (with two stints in the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Mets systems each) and has never really found a home but has been a consistent minor league grinder. He had a 3.60 ERA over 30 minor league innings in 2024 but had a disastrous three games with Triple-A Syracuse, resulting in Nittoli opting out of his contract to pursue free agency. He signed a minor league deal with the Brewers in September. A 34-year-old minor league journeyman isn’t exactly what most think of when considering possible needle-moving pieces heading into next year. He has been able to find success here and there, but he’s probably too inconsistent to warrant a roster spot. LHP Bruce Zimmermann A fifth-round draft pick by the Braves in 2017, he spent just one year in their system before being traded to the Orioles in exchange for Kevin Gausman. He put up respectable numbers, spending most of his minor league career with Triple-A Norfolk, and he even earned himself 27 major league starts over the course of four seasons. However, his performances were lukewarm at best and he dealt with several injuries. In August 2024, he was designated for assignment and elected free agency at the end of the year before signing a minor league deal with the Brewers in December. At 30 years old, he’s definitely still got some life in him. He had a 4.34 ERA over 76 ⅔ innings in his final season with Triple-A Norfolk, so there’s a potential opening for him in the event the Brewers are forced to endure similar injury luck to last year’s, but it’d be surprising to see him be a mainstay of the rotation. C Jorge Alfaro Known for his luscious locks, Alfaro is no stranger to the major leagues. He has more than 1,700 MLB plate appearances under his belt with five different organizations and most recently spent time with the Rockies and Red Sox in 2023. He signed a minor league contract with the Cubs prior to the start of the 2024 season but was released in late March, relegating him to a short stint in the Dominican Winter League, where he posted a mere .469 OPS. This winter, he was much better but had just 36 plate appearances, so his true abilities over a more meaningful sample size are still up in the air. With William Contreras and Eric Haase, Milwaukee already has sufficient talent in the catching department. While Gary Sánchez was able to get some work as a tertiary option in 2024, Alfaro would also have to compete with top prospect Jeferson Quero who was anticipated to debut last year had he not suffered a devastating injury to his throwing shoulder. Never say never but it would seem that Alfaro’s best years are behind him. 2B Raynel Delgado Delgado was a sixth-round selection by the Guardians in the 2018 draft and spent the entirety of his lengthy minor league career in the system. He had decent numbers in his final year with Triple-A Columbus, posting a .791 OPS over 345 plate appearances, but ultimately elected free agency in November and signed a minor league deal with the Brewers. There are some lingering questions regarding Milwaukee’s infield, but Delgado probably isn’t the answer. Sure, he gives the organization more infield depth, but with Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, and Caleb Durbin ahead of him on the pecking order, it would take a miracle for him to find significant major-league playing time this season. That said, he’s still just 24 years old, so there’s no guarantee that he won’t eventually find his way to his big-league debut. 2B Anthony Seigler Seigler was taken by the Yankees in the first round of the 2018 draft and was intended to be a catching prospect. He spent nearly all of his time behind the dish in his first four professional seasons but started to pick up some reps at second base in 2023. In 2024, he played all 118 games of the season in his new role and seems to have found his new defensive home. After a reasonably productive season with Double-A Somerset, the 25-year-old elected free agency and signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee. I’d love to see more from Seigler in the minors. This will be his first season against Triple-A opposition which will gauge his readiness for the big leagues. If he performs, he could be another factor in the middle infield equation now or in the near future. He still has years to go before his age starts to weigh against his chances of taking the field as a Brewer. OF Jimmy Herron Herron was taken in the third round of the 2018 draft by the Cubs and spent just a year with the organization before being traded to the Rockies in exchange for international bonus pool money. He has put up strong numbers throughout his minor league journey and most recently posted a .810 OPS over 413 plate appearances with Triple-A Albuquerque. Herron is a little on the older side at 28 years old and faces a tight logjam in the outfield. With the talents of Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, and Sal Frelick occupying the corner outfield spots, it will be hard for him to claw his way to the top. He could be a depth piece if he continues to find success at Triple-A but it would surprise me to see him get a meaningful amount of big league plate appearances. OF Jared Oliva Oliva was a seventh-round pick by the Pirates in 2017 and has spent all but 59 plate appearances of his professional career in the minor leagues. After being designated for assignment by Pittsburgh in 2022, he spent time with the Angels and the Mariners, where he posted an .841 OPS over 248 plate appearances with Double-A Arkansas. Oliva finds himself in a boat similar to Herron, although he has already made his debut. He’s 29 years old and has quite a rich pool of talent ahead of him on the roster. He has a slight advantage with more recent experience in center field, and who knows, maybe Garrett Mitchell will return to the injured list as he seems to do every year, but then Oliva would still have to win the spot over Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins, a tall task. View full article

my player comp is shohei ohtani because both bat lefty and have a penchant for bowties

The Brewers have a knack for turning lemons into lemonade, but will it all soon turn sour? Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-Imagn Images I recently examined Milwaukee’s pitching staff and how, despite their strong numbers, there was a lack of intrinsic “stuff.” In a similar vein, I wrote another article in the middle of last season discussing the surprising number of pitchers on the team with a big difference between their FIPs and ERAs and whether that meant the team’s success was more fantasy than reality. Both are unique characteristics of the Brewers that seem to contradict much of what we know about modern-day analytics. Still, it’s also a testament to the sheer complexity of baseball. Ultimately, it leads to the broader question of whether the team can maintain their pitching productivity while still going against the grain. To their credit, it’s not like they’re intentionally seeking out players with funky arm slots and awkward deliveries over those who can throw hard and spin the ball well. Instead, they do better than most teams by working with what they have. Every pitcher has a unique arsenal, mechanics, delivery, and skillset. Rather than over-indexing on those with apparent qualities, Milwaukee has been excellent at maximizing a pitcher’s strengths rather than trying to fit a square peg into a Wisconsin-shaped hole. Take Bryse Wilson, for example. After being drafted by the Braves in 2016, he made his big-league debut in 2018 and spent the next five seasons as a struggling starter with a 5.54 ERA over 43 starts. After arriving in Milwaukee, he became a long reliever, using his above-average durability but minimizing the downsides of his relatively shallow arsenal. In 2023, he posted a 2.58 ERA over 76 ⅔ innings and was an outstanding bullpen piece. He regressed to a 4.04 ERA in 2024 after he was slotted into the rotation to fill an injury gap. When entering the game in relief, he still had a perfectly serviceable 3.75 ERA. Colin Rea is another instance of this development practice. Before 2023, he had bounced around between several MLB and NPB organizations, never throwing more than 115 innings in a full season outside the minors. When he was signed and tasked with holding down the back of the rotation, he leaned more heavily on a sinker/cutter duo over a traditional four-seam fastball. Also, he introduced a sweeper as his main breaking ball offering. By remaining tricksy and relying on command, his lack of velocity and physics-defying movement didn’t prevent him from being a full-time big-league starter. At the same time, Milwaukee has also had its fair share of obviously talented arms in recent years. Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader were homegrown talents (yes, Hader technically was drafted by the Orioles and traded to the Astros, but you get my point) who were highly sought-after by many teams. But an organization can’t depend on exceptional pitching talent to consistently fall into their laps. Especially with the increased prevalence of arm injuries and the Brewers’ dislike of long-term contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, it would be impossible for the organization to simply draft or buy their way to consistent success on the mound. As much as people may try, it will likely never be possible to define the caliber of a baseball player solely by a number or set of numbers, especially if those numbers simply measure one aspect of what is inherently a multidimensional game. Even with fine-tuning and multiple iterations, statistics like Stuff+, FIP, and WAR do not capture all a given pitcher can do. It’s true that the game is generally skewing more towards superhuman velocity and spin rates, but don’t be fooled by all the bells and whistles. A pitcher’s job is to get outs; whether they do that by throwing gas or just being a little mischievous doesn’t matter much at the end of the day. Thus far, Milwaukee has done a bang-up job of finding the best use for each of their arms, and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of reason they can’t keep it up for the foreseeable future. View full article

The Brewers have some of the best pitchers in the sport, but you might not know that from their advanced pitch-modeling metrics. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Baseball is a numbers game. For hitters, most figures are pretty self-explanatory. Batting average, on-base-plus-slugging, chase rate, and strikeout rate have names that paint a pretty clear picture as to what they measure and how they’re calculated. Pitchers, on the other hand, are a little more difficult to assess. Sure, you can measure objective numbers like velocity, spin rate, and movement, but two pitches with similar numbers can have extremely different results. For example, let’s compare the four-seam fastballs of Tobias Myers and Chris Flexen: Fastball Velocity Fastball Spin Fastball Whiff Rate Fastball Run Value MIL Tobias Myers 92.9 mph 2,223 RPM 19.4% 6 CHW Chris Flexen 91.3 mph 2,144 RPM 13.2% -6 Despite being pretty close in velocity and spin, Myers was able to generate significantly more run value with his four-seam fastball than Flexen. This is a bit of an unfair comparison, and I’m conveniently glossing over several other important factors, but this should be sufficient to show you that just looking at surface-level numbers—even the kind we drooled over as recently as 10 years ago—isn’t nearly enough to tell the whole story. To try and fix this problem, the best minds in baseball came up with a very specific, crystal-clear term that left nothing up to the imagination: Stuff. You’ve likely heard this term tossed around before, and maybe you just assumed it was a general term for a pitcher having impressive velocity and movement on his pitches. Sometimes, of course, it is, but there’s actually a more specific definition. In essence, it’s a catch-all word for a pitcher being good at his job. This brings us back to the Brewers. After having a collective 3.65 ERA in 2024, fifth-best in MLB, one might assume the team’s “Stuff” is off the charts, since the pitchers were all pretty good at their jobs. The opposite is a little closer to reality. Here is a quick primer on how Stuff+ is measured, and the table below displays the 2024 Stuff+ numbers of the potential arms in Milwaukee’s 2025 rotation: Aaron Ashby 113 Brandon Woodruff 106* Nestor Cortes 105 Aaron Civale 104 Freddy Peralta 99 Tobias Myers 97 DL Hall 87 *Data from 2023 since Brandon Woodruff did not pitch in 2024 There are a couple of key takeaways here. First, Ashby leads the pack by a decent margin, but his lack of arsenal depth means he’ll probably be better in the bullpen, especially given how well he did as a reliever last season. Second, Nestor Cortes may be a surprising appearance, but his sinker had a Stuff+ figure of 119 last year. He primarily depends on a four-seam/cutter combination, but Milwaukee could have him increase his usage of his sinker and his slider, which had a Stuff+ of 109. Third, this set of numbers seems to sell the pitching staff pretty short. In fact, as a team, Brewers starters had a cumulative Stuff+ of just 97, placing them 17th in MLB. Upon further consideration, this actually makes sense. Without Corbin Burnes or Woodruff and with plenty of injuries to go around, Milwaukee’s starters relied more on clever tricks than they did on intrinsic pitch quality. Furthermore, Stuff+ doesn’t always translate to on-field success. Nick Mears had a Stuff+ of 119 while pitching for the Brewers, but only managed a 7.30 ERA and 6.25 FIP for the team. Will the Brewers be getting access to more of this so-called “Stuff” anytime soon? Well, the return of Woodruff should help their case, assuming he isn’t dragged down by any long-term side effects from injury. If Jacob Misiorowski debuts, his 70-grade fastball/slider combo should also measure well, but he has some work to do in rounding out the rest of his arsenal before he’s ready to be a big-league starter. Last but not least, we have Robert Gasser. He probably won’t be back until the back half of 2025 at the absolute earliest, but the lefty had an impressive 118 Stuff+ on his slider and is one of the team’s top pitching prospects for a reason. All in all, what the Brewers have done best with their arm talent is to get value for money. Any (rich team's) front office can cough up nine figures for pitchers who are essentially finished products, but it takes a really savvy organization to maximize the potential of what they’ve already got. Whether this ability to outperform their statistical expectations is anything more than a temporary trend is yet to be seen, but for now, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. View full article

It's definitely a thin market for free agent third basemen. In the past, Kiké Hernández has typically been described as a "vibes guy" with, as you mentioned, a strong clutch gene but I think he has the potential to be a lot more. I definitely think he has more upside than Yoán Moncada even with all of his musical talent.