Jason Wang

Milwaukee continued their savage stretch of shoving, posting a combined team ERA of 3.25 over 28 games. Honorable Mentions Joel Payamps 12 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 12 K Payamps had his best month of the year so far, pitching to the tune of a 1.42 ERA over 14 appearances. It was the first month of the season where his ERA was under 4.00 as he dialed in on his sinker and slider. Against 72 sliders thrown, opposing batters batted just .059 with a 27.8% strikeout rate. While his sinker didn’t net a single strikeout, it also didn’t give up a single hit or walk over 34 pitches. Statistical Nugget: Of Brewers pitchers with 10+ innings pitched in August, Payamps’ WHIP of 0.63 was the second-lowest behind just Bryan Hudson (0.50). Joe Ross 13 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K Following a disappointing stretch of starts before and after a lengthy IL stint, Ross has been great out of the bullpen so far. It was his first full month as a reliever and he was lights out, posting a 0.69 ERA over his seven appearances. While his four-seam fastball was a secondary weapon to his sinker this month, it had an impressive 42.9% strikeout rate with a 0.0% walk rate. The only run he gave up was against his slider, a pitch that still kept opposing batters to a .387 OPS. Statistical Nugget: Of Brewers pitchers with 10+ innings pitched in August, Ross’s opposing slugging percentage of .174 was the lowest. Freddy Peralta 28 IP, 22 H, 9 ER, 11 BB, 23 K Like the aforementioned names on this list, Peralta hit a real stride this month. His 2.89 ERA over five starts was a significant improvement over the approximately 4.00 ERA mark he was sitting at over the prior three months. It has been discussed a few times on Brewer Fanatic already, but when his slider is working well, Peralta is at his best. Over 78 sliders thrown in August, he didn’t concede a single run. The curveball was just as effective, also avoiding any scoring damage over 48 pitches. He’s locking in at just the right time and if he maintains this momentum into the postseason, Milwaukee will have a great rotation setup for any playoff series. Statistical Nugget: Of Brewers pitchers with more than 20 batters faced in August, Freddy Peralta’s barrel rate against his breaking balls was 6.3%, second-lowest behind just Joe Ross (5.6%). Pitcher of the Month - Tobias Myers 27 IP, 24 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 21 K The defending champion kept it going with a 2.67 ERA over five starts, his best monthly ERA since the mind-blowing 1.44 he posted in June. His four-seam/slider combo continued to help carry the sagging weight of a cutter that continues to struggle at the major league level. These two pitches combined for an opposing batting average of just .186, a big improvement over the .360 average against his cutter in August. While Peralta may have entered the season as the ace of the rotation, Myers seems to have risen to the top spot statistically, leading the team in starter ERA (3.00). Regardless of who is actually top dog, it’s clear that the starting rotation injury catastrophe that threatened to sink the ship has been patched up just in time for October. Statistical Nugget: Of Brewers starters, Myers’ August walk rate of 4.6% was the second-lowest, behind just Colin Rea (0.8%). View full article

Because of their success this year, Milwaukee could get a few extra days of rest in October. Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK It has been a great regular season for the Brewers so far. They have vastly exceeded expectations, and since they’re comfortably winning the NL Central, the next goal should be to skip straight to the division series, if possible. As things currently stand, the Dodgers have the most wins in the National League with 81, while the Phillies and Brewers are just two games back with identical records of 79-56. This gives the Dodgers a clear bye, but we’ll have to head to a tiebreaker for the other two teams. The first factor is the head-to-head record. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, the only series they played against Philadelphia was a three-game sweep back at the start of June. On the other hand, they have an upcoming three-game series at home to settle the score. If the Brewers manage to sweep the Phillies right back, then the head-to-head record will be 3-3, so we’ll have to defer to the second tiebreaker, their record against division opponents. Some might say the Phillies and Brewers are not in the same division. While I personally deny such outlandish claims and believe them to be a part of a larger conspiracy, I must admit that it’s technically true. However, MLB still uses intradivision record as the tiebreaker in this case. Against NL Central teams, the Brewers are 28-16, giving them a winning percentage of 63.6%. Against NL East teams, the Phillies are 21-15, giving them a winning percentage of 58.3% so that the Brewers would take the #2 National League seed and the attached bye. But hold on, the season isn’t exactly over yet. There are under 30 games to play, and a lot can change over that span, especially if teams are currently caught in a deadlock. If we instead try to imagine the playoff bracket after a full 162 games have been completed, things look slightly different. Per FanGraphs, the Dodgers are still projected to end up on top with 97 projected wins. The Phillies come in second with 94 projected wins, and the Brewers get relegated to the Wild Card Round with 93. Still, there’s a meager spread of just four games between first and third here, so what can the Crew do to sway the odds back in their favor? Based on FanGraphs, they have the strongest strength of schedule of the three current division leaders down the stretch. A couple of upcoming series that could prove to be somewhat challenging are the Diamondbacks (twice) and Phillies. Furthermore, the Mets and Cardinals aren’t exactly pushovers, even though the Brewers have played well against them this year. Finally, there’s a three-game set against the Giants on the schedule, and they’ve had a decent second half, going 21-18 with a +10 run differential. The Phillies have to wrap up their series against the heated rival Braves, but after that, their schedule doesn’t contain any playoff locks other than the Brewers. Instead, it’s filled with four games against the Marlins, three games against the Cubs, three games against the Nationals, and seven games against the Mets. Mathematically, the Brewers just need to win one more game than the Phillies to get ahead, but because of the difference in opponent quality, they have a slightly uphill battle to fight if they want to seize the #2 seed. On the bright side, the Phillies seem to have hit a bumpy stretch after the All-Star break, while the Brewers are riding high on upward momentum, which could shift the sands in a meaningful way. But is getting a bye even beneficial? The 2023 postseason called this into question after every team that received a bye other than the Astros was bounced out in their first series, leading to the #5 seeded Texas Rangers and #6 Arizona Diamondbacks playing for the grand prize. In my opinion, this concern can be attributed more to recency bias as well as the inherent uncertainty of baseball. The biggest advantage of the bye is being able to orient your pitching staff the way you want while keeping them fresh. Milwaukee’s rotation has been a sore spot since the offseason, but with the top of their rotation seeming to hit a stride, this could give the team the upper hand. Who knows, maybe we’ll get to see more than one round of playoff Brewers baseball for the first time since 2018. View full article

How have the organization’s top prospects and most advanced farmhands been faring as their season heads into the home stretch? Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK Injuries Dash Hopes of Two Potential Call-Ups Jeferson Quero tore his labrum in April and had season-ending surgery, nullifying his chances of making his MLB debut this year. As the No. 1-ranked prospect in the Brewers system, he’ll have to wait a little longer to get called up, but with an ETA of 2025, it shouldn’t be too long. With Gary Sánchez hitting free agency at the end of the year and Eric Haase hardly a long-term backup option, Quero will be a great second-string catcher behind William Contreras in the near future. Abner Uribe hit the 7-day injured list back in June. He is also out for the season after undergoing knee surgery in July. He was a shadow of himself from 2023, pitching to a 6.91 ERA over 14 ⅓ innings with the Brewers this year. He did, however, manage a 1.04 ERA over 8 ⅔ innings with the Nashville Sounds. Uribe is one of the underdiscussed losses of this season, on a pitching staff filled with them. Hopefully, he'll be back with a vengeance in 2025. Who Should Get Added to the 28-Man? Other than "What is my favorite craft beer?", this is the most-asked question by Brewers fans. With a farm system as rich in talent as Milwaukee’s, it can be hard to pick just two names. The most popular choice would undoubtedly be pitching phenom Jacob Misiorowski. The third-ranked prospect in the system and 66th overall prospect in baseball, his sheer potential has made fans clamor for him to be added to the active roster. With a four-seam fastball that topped out at 100.7 mph this year and a curveball with 46.6 inches of vertical drop, it’s no surprise. After posting a 3.50 ERA over 19 starts in Double-A, he has gone on to post a 1.69 ERA over 10 ⅔ innings coming out of the bullpen. He could be a great X-factor for the Crew's October bullpen. At the very least, he'd be a fun sight to see in the final month of the summer. Along the theme of pitchers, my fellow Indiana University graduate Craig Yoho seems poised to break out, himself. He doesn’t quite get the same amount of attention as Misiorowski, but don’t get it twisted: he’s a ballplayer. His 1.09 ERA and 17.0 K/9 across 49 ⅔ innings of minor-league ball this year speak for themselves. He has only pitched 6 ⅓ innings in Nashville, but has shown that he can compete at the higher levels of the sport. Tyler Black is another potential name to add, although he already debuted earlier this year. He seemed to struggle at the major-league level with an OPS of just .561 but he only received 57 plate appearances, not enough time to find his footing. He’s got an .842 OPS with Nashville this year over a much more robust sample size of 386 plate appearances. What about the aptly named Brewer Hicklen? He has been great in right field and he might be an offensive upgrade over Sal Frelick who is currently one of the team’s weakest bats. Hicklen has slashed .250/.367/.484 with 20 home runs, 16 doubles, and five triples. He may not provide the defensive prowess of Frelick, but adding Hicklen would give Pat Murphy more optionality and the team a player with literally the perfect name. Can Mequon’s Favorite Son Return to His Hometown Team? After starting the season with Nashville, Owen Miller was called up to replace Christian Yelich in April. He had a disappointing stretch of just 27 plate appearances before being designated for assignment and outrighted in July. He has been okay at the plate for the Sounds, keeping strikeouts low and his average high, but he still lacks impactful power. He has just four home runs over 326 plate appearances and a .115 ISO. So what can he do to get back to Milwaukee? For now, it seems like an uphill battle, but perhaps the most straightforward path is to play backup to Brice Turang, who has been floundering after a stellar start to the year. Even then, he’ll have to find himself in a situation where Joey Ortiz is also unavailable to fill in at second base, but Ortiz is very much needed at third right now. Overall, the outlook isn’t good, if his production doesn’t take a big step forward. Carlos Rodriguez vs. Carlos Rodríguez Did you know there are two people named Carlos Rodriguez on the team? Separated solely by their middle initial (also handedness, position, country of origin, general appearance, and a bunch of other things), it can sometimes be hard to tell the difference between the two. Luckily, I’m here to help you tell them apart. Carlos Fernando Rodríguez is the 21st-ranked prospect in Milwaukee’s system, and is a right-handed pitcher who actually debuted earlier this year, making three lukewarm starts at the height of the Brewers' starting pitcher injury crisis. With Nashville, he has a 4.56 ERA over 18 starts, but he's had a great August, posting a 2.31 ERA over 23 ⅓ innings. He’s still struggling to minimize hard contact against his fastball, but it’s coming along. I doubt that he’ll make it back to the majors this year over the aforementioned Misiorowski and Yoho, but he’s talented nonetheless. Carlos David Rodriguez is an outfielder who spent most of the season with Double-A Biloxi before joining his name twin in Triple-A. He has slashed .273/.365/.382 with two doubles and two triples over 63 plate appearances. Yet to hit his first home run with the Sounds, he’s still got a long way to go before being a potential call-up candidate, especially with an already crowded outfield in Milwaukee. 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we should just call up the prospect with the coolest name in which case jesus made should be the one making his debut this september

After bouncing back and forth between Triple-A and the majors this year, his return to the big leagues might be for good--and so might his transition to a new role. Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports Aaron Ashby has had a less-than-ideal past two years. After missing all of 2023 due to serious issues with his left shoulder, he came back this season as a diminished version of his former self. His velocity was down across the board, an understandable side effect of an extended layoff and rehabilitation process, and aside from two shaky starts, he has spent his 2024 with Triple-A Nashville. He was even less consistent in the minors, and across 84 total innings with the Sounds, he posted an 8.04 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Those are eye-popping numbers, but not in the good way. To be fair, his time with the Sounds became more of a long-term rehabilitation assignment than anything. In late May, he had already pitched nearly 40 innings to an 8.10 ERA, but Nashville manager Rick Sweet noted that he was steadily improving, gradually refining his previously nonexistent command and working back up to his pre-injury velocity. Sweet also noted that shoulder injuries are notoriously tricky and hard to come back from, so this rough patch wasn’t totally unexpected. In August, Ashby finally started to resemble the top prospect he was before injury struck. In his final six games with the Sounds, he pitched eight innings in relief and gave up just two earned runs. His strikeout rate spiked to 48.3% and his K/BB was sitting at 5.0. The biggest reason for this improvement seems to be big steps forward on his sinker. Before his August renaissance, the pitch was sitting right in that lovely “meatball” part of the zone where opposing hitters have the most success and make the best contact. Since regaining his feel, it’s now closer to the edges of the strike zone, limiting batted-ball quality. Furthermore, his velocity is back up. Prior to Aug. 6, his sinker averaged 93.9 MPH and topped out at 96.7. Since then, it’s averaging 95.5 and topping out at 98.4, numbers more in line with what he was doing pre-injury. His slider and curveball are also on an upward trend, especially as out pitches. Of the 15 total strikeouts he had in the aforementioned span, eight came against his slider and five came against his curveball. All of this was on display in his first major-league outing since Jun. 5. In a two-inning relief appearance against the Oakland Athletics, he threw 31 total pitches, 18 of which were strikes. He gave up no hits, no earned runs, and a lone walk, and he struck out two batters. His sinker remained his primary pitch, comfortably sitting around 96 MPH and topping out at 98.2. More importantly, the command had clearly improved, peppering the outside of the zone and earning him five called strikes. He only threw three sliders, but was deploying the curveball to great effect, earning three called strikes and a whiff. Ashby’s enticing upside as a pitcher is why the Brewers extended him into 2027, with two more team options. He’s a lefty with significant potential, and while it may be difficult to discern that fact from quick glances at his numbers on Baseball Reference, the deeper details point to him being a potential powerhouse arm. The larger question about his exact role on the pitching staff still remains unclear, however. Is he at his best in short bursts coming out of the bullpen? Will he ever be able to replicate the success he’s having when having to stretch out to five or six innings of work? It’s hard to make that call right now, but at just over 26 years old, Ashby is having enough success to keep himself in the big-league mix into October. View full article

In the late innings of a one-run game, one of the best Brewers bullpen arms stopped an Oakland outburst dead in its tracks. Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers headed into the seventh inning with a 5-3 lead over Oakland. After a single and stolen base by Zack Gelof, lefty Jared Koenig was tasked with getting the final out of the inning. His sixth pitch to Daz Cameron, a sinker in the heart of the strike zone, was battered into right field for an RBI double. Brent Rooker, who had already hit a double and a homer, was intentionally walked, so JJ Bleday entered the batter’s box. Koenig has been great against lefties all year, posting a 0.83 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 84 batters faced. Not only did walking Rooker reduce the threat of an admittedly hot bat, it gave Koenig an important handedness advantage. On the other hand, Bleday has been hitting lefties well this year, posting a .537 slugging percentage and an .821 OPS over 89 plate appearances. Despite his power against left-handed pitching, his strikeout (21.3%) and walk rates (6.7%) still left him vulnerable. The matchup started with some drama before the first pitch was thrown as Bleday was charged with a pitch-clock violation after taking too long to enter the box. Athletics manager Mark Kotsay came out to argue that Bleday had simply been waiting for Rooker to make it to first base but his words fell on deaf ears, giving Koenig an 0-1 head start. In fresh 0-0 counts, Koenig throws a sinker more than half the time. In 0-1 counts, he prefers to mix in his cutter and changeup more, likely to slow down the hitter after seeing a mid-90s sinker. In this case, he threw a sinker that ended up down and in on Bleday, causing him to whiff his way to an 0-2 count. With three balls to work with, Koenig likely wanted to expand the zone and avoid giving Bleday anything too juicy to hit. So he deployed a cutter that ended up in the right-handed batter box to bring the count to 1-2. He tried it again, instead placing the cutter beautifully on the outside edge of the zone but Bleday managed to foul it off to stay alive. Now at 1-2 with Bleday starting to time up his cutter, Koenig needed to stir the pot once again. 1-2 counts are when he throws his curveball most often and it typically follows a string of higher velocity pitches. With proper tunneling and the hitter’s timing sped up, Koenig’s curveballs have a whiff rate of 48.7% and a put-away percentage of 22.8%. Unfortunately in this case, Bleday took his curveball beneath the zone to bring the count to 2-2. With Bleday starting to work his way back in the count, it was time to get back to the bread and butter. With the last pitch down and in, Koenig’s fifth pitch was a sinker to the outer portion of the zone. It even had some extra juice, clocking in a 2.3 mph faster than the first sinker he threw in the at-bat, but Bleday fouled it off once again. The one part of the zone Koenig hadn’t yet attacked was the upper portion. As with most hitters in today’s game, Bleday struggles to be productive against high pitches but more importantly, he’s been terrible against pitches up and away. A quick peek at his wOBA heat map illustrates this as clear as day. With the game on the line and protecting a narrow lead, Koenig’s best bet would be the cutter. The location of that pitch has been up and away from lefties all year and while it’s actually been most effective against righties, it seemed like the right weapon in this case. And so against a 90.2 mph cutter just past the outside corner, Bleday failed to check his swing and punched out, allowing Milwaukee to preserve their 5-4 lead heading into the eighth inning. The events of this matchup seemed ultimately inconsequential as the Brewers would tack on four more insurance runs and finish the game with a 9-5 score, but this helped stop a potential downward slide for the team. Of the 27 outs earned by Milwaukee, this one had the highest win probability added at 9.5%. It was an outstanding performance by Koenig in a high-pressure situation and was a good example of what makes this pitching staff so great. View full article

The Crew's star shortstop has been swinging a hot bat, but still seems to struggle against southpaws. Why? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Since the All-Star break, Willy Adames has been excellent at the plate. His .883 OPS across 108 plate appearances is the third-best among qualified Brewers hitters, behind Jackson Chourio (.972 OPS) and William Contreras (.883 OPS). With a season OPS+ of 116 so far, it’s a big step forward after a disappointing 93 OPS+ in 2023. But alas, everything has a price. Throughout his career, Adames has been slightly better against righties than he has against lefties. The OPS difference is .087, so while meaningful, it's not totally off-putting, and he’s still able to hold his own. In fact, he actually hit lefties better (.763 OPS) than he hit righties (.701) last year, an interesting change of pace. This year, he’s gone in the other direction and has produced very lopsided splits. BA OBP SLG K% BB% vs. RHP .271 .338 .500 25.9% 9.1% vs. LHP .191 .318 .300 21.2% 15.9% At first glance, the difference in his slash line is clear. It seems like he’s able to hit for greater power against righties, but is being more conservative against lefties, striking out less and walking much more. But a closer look at the exit data actually shows that the opposite is true, sort of. Exit Velocity Launch Angle >95mph EV Barrel Rate Flyball Distance vs. RHP 88.3 mph 17.8 38.5% 22.2% 336.8 vs. LHP 90.6 mph 24.1 47.0% 22.9% 358.8 Interestingly enough, Adames has a higher average exit velocity against lefties, and almost half of his batted balls against lefties are hit harder than 95 mph. That's what we'd expect from a right-handed hitter, but the results aren't. So what gives? Are we being deceived? The culprit is the term “average,” an imperfect and incomplete metric measure of center. A quick peek at a vertical launch angle heat map helps add clarity to this predicament. vs. LHP (left) & vs. RHP (right) Adames tends to get a lot more batted balls with steep launch angles against southpaws. The “average” launch angle of 24.1 degrees would be cool if he could hit it every time, but realistically, the figure is a result of a more bimodal distribution of high fly balls and low ground balls. The launch angle distribution against righties is much more even, and his most frequent 10-degree launch angle band against them is 20-30 degrees. Against lefties, the band in which he's hit the ball most often is 40-50 degrees. Southpaws have induced a whole lot of high, catchable fly balls from Adames. On the bright side, he’s had nearly three times more plate appearances against righties (400, vs. 132 against lefties), so his overall production hasn’t been dragged down by much. On the other hand, it seems to be getting even worse. In the 26 plate appearances against lefties since the All-Star break, he has a .364 OPS. It’s a small sample, but it’s part of a larger pattern that has gone on all season. One can only hope that he doesn’t see too much southpaw opposition come the playoffs--or that he makes a dramatic adjustment by then. View full article

Just came here to note that in the 26 games since the ASB, Jackson Chourio leads all qualified Brewers with a .982 OPS.

He hasn’t thrown many innings since coming back, but the one he pitched to close out Wednesday night's nailbiter was thrilling. What does pitch-by-pitch data say about his current status? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports When Devin Williams took the mound on Jul. 28, it had been 318 days since his last competitive major-league appearance, a shaky outing in the first game of the 2023 Wild Card Series. So far, he’s back to business as usual, posting a 1.80 ERA across the five innings he has pitched, with nine strikeouts. On Wednesday night, in recording his second save of the campaign, Williams retired Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman in order, all with a one-run lead. The only instances in the last half-century of that exhilarating a baseball moment--one of the game's best closers getting out an elite trio of hitters at the top of the lineup in the ninth inning, to close out a one-run win--prior to Wednesday were: May 24, 2006: Billy Wagner gets out Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Bobby Abreu, Mets beat Phillies Jun. 11, 2009: Jonathan Papelbon sets down Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, and Mark Teixeira, Red Sox beat Yankees Jun. 29, 2023: David Bednar retires Fernando Tatis Jr, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado, Pirates beat Padres Despite the magnitude of some of his matchups, the sample size of innings and batters faced is too small to draw any major conclusions on Williams yet. Still, I wanted to take a closer look at the plentiful data from his 79 pitches thrown so far, to see whether his stuff is still up to snuff or if he’s yet to reach his final form. The first order of business is to check on his velocity and spin rates. These surface-level metrics should give us a broad idea of what he’s working with, and pitchers returning from long layoffs are often affected. Although it’s usually shoulder and arm injuries that have truly adverse effects on these characteristics, let’s compare and contrast his numbers year-over-year, for the sake of being thorough. Average Velocity (MPH) Spin Rate (RPM) 2024 Four-Seam Fastball 95.2 2322 2023 Four-Seam Fastball 94.2 2322 2024 Changeup 84.8 2713 2023 Changeup 83.8 2683 As expected, things are pretty much the same. He’s throwing a little harder, in fact, and the spin rate hasn’t changed at all since last year (kooky!). It makes sense that he’s carrying an extra tick on the heat, since he hasn’t had the workload of an entire season and is fresh. Because of the similar velocities and spin rates, it makes sense that the amount of movement on his pitches is also virtually identical compared to last year. So he’s still chuckin’ the ball real nice, but how has he commanded it thus far? Let’s start with his fastball. Last year, Williams loved going up and away with it, helping to compensate for his relatively average velocity. It had a whiff rate of 41.8% and a strikeout rate of 41.1%, excellent numbers for a pitch that’s usually thrown in the upper-90s by other elite relievers. This year, he has been great on the edges of the strike zone, barring a few misses here and there. He’s been slightly better with command against lefties, as there are a good amount of pitches to righties that are a little farther outside than you'd want. The changeup, his patented “airbender,” is a little different. It has been both his best and most frequently thrown pitch since 2020. Against the 2,152 changeups that he has thrown in his career, opposing batters are averaging just .140, a ridiculous number. Only 27 of those changeups are from 2024, but the command on them still seems pretty good. To batters at the plate, the pitch simply drops off the table and tumbles more than 40 inches, understandably leading to a lot of balls ending up below the zone. Against lefty hitters, it has the added effect of breaking nearly 20 inches to his arm side, going down and away for a frustrating hitting experience overall. He has given up two hits this year, both to lefties, but one of those was iffy to say the least. At least it gave Xavier Edwards his first major-league cycle! Here’s what it looks like when it’s working. All in all, the verdict is: it seems like he’s going to be just fine. As mentioned earlier, while a back stress fracture isn’t your average playground boo-boo, it’s much less concerning than an arm or shoulder injury. Furthermore, it seems that both he and the Brewers had a thorough rehabilitation and recovery process to ensure that he hit the ground running when coming back to the big-league level. To cap it all off, he faced the biggest test of his season last night. Not only did he cruise past three of the greatest hitters in the league, he did so in just seven pitches. He’ll undoubtedly face some hiccups later on, since that’s sort of how baseball works, but for now, it seems that he’s already picked up where he left off. If anything, it might mean that he’s even fresher for high-leverage, career-defining, postseason save opportunities. View full article

nl central teams after seeing the brewers once again have a big ERA/FIP gap

Does Milwaukee really have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball again, or are they due for a statistical regression? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports After more than 1,000 innings of baseball, the Brewers have a team ERA of 3.74, the fourth-best in baseball and just 0.02 higher than the second-place Phillies. It has been an area of strength for the past few years, and has helped make up for a relatively weak lineup during long stretches of the last two seasons. However, a closer look at some peripheral numbers indicates that things may not be as rosy as one might think. While they are fourth in ERA, here is where they rank for other key pitching statistics. FIP 4.41 (25th) WHIP 1.25 (15th) K/9 8.29 (22nd) BB/9 3.12 (17th) HR/9 1.26 (25th) For pretty much every other rate statistic, the Brewers are average or worse. Why is this important? Well, FIP (or Fielding Independent Pitching) primarily measures the abilities of a pitcher to minimize home runs, walks, and hit by pitches, while maximizing strikeouts. Essentially, it gauges how well a pitcher does the things over which pitchers have a greater measure of control. Strikeout-heavy pitchers like Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal usually excel at this metric, while other pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez and Logan Webb make up for fewer strikeouts with fewer home runs conceded. Milwaukee has quite a few players with a meaningful difference between their ERA and FIP. There are a few unlucky fellows whose FIP is actually better, but for the most part, things shape up to be the other way around. Player ERA FIP Difference Bryan Hudson 1.60 3.61 -2.01 Jared Koenig 2.01 3.41 -1.4 Tobias Myers 2.79 4.19 -1.4 Bryse Wilson 4.02 5.17 -1.15 Elvis Peguero 3.15 4.24 -1.09 Colin Rea 3.38 4.34 -0.96 Hoby Milner 4.92 3.31 1.61 Bryan Hudson having the biggest negative difference is fascinating. His 28.4% strikeout rate is excellent, but his walk rate of 6.8% and home run rate of 3.2% are both closer to average. Because home runs are weighted so heavily (by a coefficient of 13 in the formula), the six that he has given up drag down his numbers, even though all except one have been solo shots. On the other end of things, poor Hoby Milner has gotten the short end of the stick this season. He has gotten torched on batted balls this summer, but has only given up five home runs over 53 innings. His walk rate of 6.3% is right around the top quartile of the league, even if he’s not the greatest strikeout accumulator the world has ever seen. So what does this mean? Are Brewers pitchers overrated? Is their success solely the result of eating a dozen grapes at midnight before each outing? Should you take the over on earned runs for every Milwaukee game from here on out? As with everything in baseball and quantum mechanics, the answer is "sort of...?" We’ve already talked about what FIP is, so let’s talk about what it is not. Some people like to think FIP is a more accurate representation of a pitcher’s abilities because it’s isolated to things they can control, but there are several flaws with this thesis. First of all, there is far more to pitching than the three true outcomes. Second, the somewhat arbitrary weighting of the outcomes punishes pitchers more than others for unfair reasons. Giving up a three-run homer and one-run homer should not count the same, some argue, because they are very different results in a game. Furthermore, a hypothetical pitcher with a penchant for giving up tons of runs on line drives while conceding no home runs or free passes would theoretically have a better FIP than someone who gives up a solo home run every so often, and nothing else. Finally, while Statcast has made intangible numbers like expected batting average more accessible, ultimately what happens on the field is what decides a game. Even if Bryan Hudson is "supposed to" give up twice as many runs as he has, he hasn’t. To broaden that to the Brewers as a whole, even if they were "supposed to" give up more runs, they haven't. All that said, one upside of paying attention to FIP is that it has been a more accurate predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. It’s an imperfect stat, like everything in baseball, but it's not totally useless. In fact, FanGraphs deliberately uses FIP instead of ERA to calculate WAR for pitchers. The broader takeaway from this should be that Milwaukee’s arms may be overperforming, and these results likely won’t last--at least not with the roster as is. Luckily, the return of guys with great FIPs like Trevor Megill (in the short term) and Brandon Woodruff (in the long term) should help offset some of the anticipated backslide. For now, we can only hope that what they have is enough to get the team through a few more months of postseason-quality baseball. View full article

Through continued issues with the health of their starting rotation, Milwaukee still managed to pitch to a combined 3.85 ERA over 24 games. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo Honorable Mentions Jakob Junis 15.0 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 9 K Unfortunately for Brewers fans, Junis was hitting a real post-IL stride before being sent off to the division rival Reds. His 2.40 ERA for the month was one of the best in the bullpen, and quite a few people had hoped he would be kept around. He had a rocky first outing with his new team, giving up three earned runs in 1 ⅓ innings, so maybe Milwaukee knew he was reaching the end of a good stretch. Rob Zastryzny 7 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Another tragic victim of the arm epidemic, Zastryzny, was pitching excellently before hitting the 15-day IL with left elbow tendinitis in the final week of July. He signed a minor-league contract with the Brewers after being designated for assignment last September by the Pirates. He was a good late-inning reliever with the Nashville Sounds in Triple-A. His 1.17 ERA over his nine appearances last month may be the best stretch he has had since his rookie campaign with the Cubs in 2016. Hoby Milner 12 2/3 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 12 K Master Milner found his footing again after a rough June, which saw him post a 9.64 ERA against a 3.25 FIP over 9 ⅓ innings. Trusting in his stuff again, his numbers became a more accurate reflection of his skill as a reliever, and he had his best month by ERA since April. His numbers aren’t great, and his season WHIP of 1.22 is particularly high, but he should be able to cruise through the remainder of the year. Colin Rea 28.0 IP, 24 H, 11 ER, 7 BB, 28 K Rea continued the momentum he found in June with yet another quality month of starts in July. He put up a 3.54 ERA while reaching a K/9 rate of 9.0, the highest for a single month this year. Quite a few people assumed that he would eventually fall back to an ERA in the 4.50 ballpark, closer to his career averages, but he has refused to do so. He leads the rotation in rWAR and has been of excellent value to the team thus far. Pitcher of the Month - Tobias Myers 23 1/3 IP, 21 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 22 K He is one of the best rookie pitching talents in the game today. Myers doesn’t get the same attention as other National League rookies, probably because he isn’t dating an LSU gymnast. Nonetheless, his 3.10 ERA over 15 starts is outstanding, and he leads all Milwaukee starters in WHIP at 1.14. July was the second month he rose to the top, following a 1.44 ERA in June. View full article

Milwaukee had their first month with fewer wins than losses in July, going 11-13, but still managed to post a modest yet positive run differential of +2 and a respectable combined .730 OPS. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo Honorable Mentions Eric Haase 31 PA, .345/.387/.655, 10 H, 3 HR, 4 R, 8 RBI, 2 BB, 13 K Haase had a small sample size of plate appearances but I felt that his performance was worth a brief mention. July was the first month he got major league at-bats with Milwaukee, and he made the most out of this opportunity, posting a team-leading 1.042 OPS. Rhys Hoskins 84 PA, .192/.262/.507, 14 H, 2 2B, 7 HR, 11 R, 19 RBI, 6 BB, 26 K, 2 HBP To many, a .192 batting average may automatically disqualify a hitter from receiving any sort of praise. Still, Hoskins was an integral part of the Brewers’ run-scoring in July, leading the team in RBI for the month. Over half of his hits were for extra bases, and his power has been as advertised. His overall production is still on the lower end with an OPS+ of just 104, and especially for a first baseman, the Brewers were likely hoping for more. Jackson Chourio 88 PA, .317/.364/.512, 26 H, 7 2B, 3 HR, 14 R, 12 RBI, 6 BB, 12 K, 4 SB With a .876 total OPS for July, Chourio continued the momentum he started last month. His strikeout rate of 13.6% was the lowest of any month in his career so far, and he’s clearly made big adjustments to compete at the big league level. After being one of the worst hitters on the team at the end of May, he has managed to claw his way back to having an OPS+ of 101 while playing elite defense. Long story short, Jackson Chourio is really good. Who knew? Willy Adames 103 PA, .312/.369/.516, 29 H, 7 2B, 4 HR, 14 R, 17 RBI, 9 BB, 33 K, 2 SB Adames had an intriguing month. Despite a wicked strikeout rate of 32.0%, he still managed to hit for an excellent average and great power, leading the team in total bases with 48. It was a big bounce back, going from a .592 OPS in June to a .885 OPS in July, the best month he’s had this season. He now has the team's third-highest OPS+ among qualified hitters at 110. In the days leading up to this year’s trade deadline, general manager Matt Arnold mentioned how important Adames was to the team, stating that they probably weren’t going to trade him. Do the Brewers have plans to re-sign him when he becomes a free agent this year? Only time will tell. Hitter of the Month - Christian Yelich 66 PA, .288/.431/.577, 15 H, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 10 R, 6 RBI, 12 BB, 9 K, 1 HBP, 3 SB Yelich has been battling the same perennial back issues he’s had throughout his career, but even in the face of such adversity, he has played the best baseball of his life since 2019. July saw him recover from a slight slump he encountered in June, bringing his walk rate to an astounding 18.2% and his home run rate to 4.5%. It’s still unclear when he’ll return to the lineup. He’s stated that he’d like to delay surgery as long as possible to avoid missing the remainder of the season, but manager Pat Murphy has gone on to say that surgery is “inevitable.” Losing Yelich for the last 50 games of the year and the postseason would be devastating, especially given his output thus far, but he’s not out of the picture just yet. View full article