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Everything posted by Jason Wang
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Do The Brewers Have a FIP Problem?
Jason Wang replied to Jason Wang's topic in Brewer Fanatic Front Page News
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Do The Brewers Have a FIP Problem?
Jason Wang replied to Jason Wang's topic in Brewer Fanatic Front Page News
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Does Milwaukee really have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball again, or are they due for a statistical regression? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports After more than 1,000 innings of baseball, the Brewers have a team ERA of 3.74, the fourth-best in baseball and just 0.02 higher than the second-place Phillies. It has been an area of strength for the past few years, and has helped make up for a relatively weak lineup during long stretches of the last two seasons. However, a closer look at some peripheral numbers indicates that things may not be as rosy as one might think. While they are fourth in ERA, here is where they rank for other key pitching statistics. FIP 4.41 (25th) WHIP 1.25 (15th) K/9 8.29 (22nd) BB/9 3.12 (17th) HR/9 1.26 (25th) For pretty much every other rate statistic, the Brewers are average or worse. Why is this important? Well, FIP (or Fielding Independent Pitching) primarily measures the abilities of a pitcher to minimize home runs, walks, and hit by pitches, while maximizing strikeouts. Essentially, it gauges how well a pitcher does the things over which pitchers have a greater measure of control. Strikeout-heavy pitchers like Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal usually excel at this metric, while other pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez and Logan Webb make up for fewer strikeouts with fewer home runs conceded. Milwaukee has quite a few players with a meaningful difference between their ERA and FIP. There are a few unlucky fellows whose FIP is actually better, but for the most part, things shape up to be the other way around. Player ERA FIP Difference Bryan Hudson 1.60 3.61 -2.01 Jared Koenig 2.01 3.41 -1.4 Tobias Myers 2.79 4.19 -1.4 Bryse Wilson 4.02 5.17 -1.15 Elvis Peguero 3.15 4.24 -1.09 Colin Rea 3.38 4.34 -0.96 Hoby Milner 4.92 3.31 1.61 Bryan Hudson having the biggest negative difference is fascinating. His 28.4% strikeout rate is excellent, but his walk rate of 6.8% and home run rate of 3.2% are both closer to average. Because home runs are weighted so heavily (by a coefficient of 13 in the formula), the six that he has given up drag down his numbers, even though all except one have been solo shots. On the other end of things, poor Hoby Milner has gotten the short end of the stick this season. He has gotten torched on batted balls this summer, but has only given up five home runs over 53 innings. His walk rate of 6.3% is right around the top quartile of the league, even if he’s not the greatest strikeout accumulator the world has ever seen. So what does this mean? Are Brewers pitchers overrated? Is their success solely the result of eating a dozen grapes at midnight before each outing? Should you take the over on earned runs for every Milwaukee game from here on out? As with everything in baseball and quantum mechanics, the answer is "sort of...?" We’ve already talked about what FIP is, so let’s talk about what it is not. Some people like to think FIP is a more accurate representation of a pitcher’s abilities because it’s isolated to things they can control, but there are several flaws with this thesis. First of all, there is far more to pitching than the three true outcomes. Second, the somewhat arbitrary weighting of the outcomes punishes pitchers more than others for unfair reasons. Giving up a three-run homer and one-run homer should not count the same, some argue, because they are very different results in a game. Furthermore, a hypothetical pitcher with a penchant for giving up tons of runs on line drives while conceding no home runs or free passes would theoretically have a better FIP than someone who gives up a solo home run every so often, and nothing else. Finally, while Statcast has made intangible numbers like expected batting average more accessible, ultimately what happens on the field is what decides a game. Even if Bryan Hudson is "supposed to" give up twice as many runs as he has, he hasn’t. To broaden that to the Brewers as a whole, even if they were "supposed to" give up more runs, they haven't. All that said, one upside of paying attention to FIP is that it has been a more accurate predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. It’s an imperfect stat, like everything in baseball, but it's not totally useless. In fact, FanGraphs deliberately uses FIP instead of ERA to calculate WAR for pitchers. The broader takeaway from this should be that Milwaukee’s arms may be overperforming, and these results likely won’t last--at least not with the roster as is. Luckily, the return of guys with great FIPs like Trevor Megill (in the short term) and Brandon Woodruff (in the long term) should help offset some of the anticipated backslide. For now, we can only hope that what they have is enough to get the team through a few more months of postseason-quality baseball. View full article
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After more than 1,000 innings of baseball, the Brewers have a team ERA of 3.74, the fourth-best in baseball and just 0.02 higher than the second-place Phillies. It has been an area of strength for the past few years, and has helped make up for a relatively weak lineup during long stretches of the last two seasons. However, a closer look at some peripheral numbers indicates that things may not be as rosy as one might think. While they are fourth in ERA, here is where they rank for other key pitching statistics. FIP 4.41 (25th) WHIP 1.25 (15th) K/9 8.29 (22nd) BB/9 3.12 (17th) HR/9 1.26 (25th) For pretty much every other rate statistic, the Brewers are average or worse. Why is this important? Well, FIP (or Fielding Independent Pitching) primarily measures the abilities of a pitcher to minimize home runs, walks, and hit by pitches, while maximizing strikeouts. Essentially, it gauges how well a pitcher does the things over which pitchers have a greater measure of control. Strikeout-heavy pitchers like Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal usually excel at this metric, while other pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez and Logan Webb make up for fewer strikeouts with fewer home runs conceded. Milwaukee has quite a few players with a meaningful difference between their ERA and FIP. There are a few unlucky fellows whose FIP is actually better, but for the most part, things shape up to be the other way around. Player ERA FIP Difference Bryan Hudson 1.60 3.61 -2.01 Jared Koenig 2.01 3.41 -1.4 Tobias Myers 2.79 4.19 -1.4 Bryse Wilson 4.02 5.17 -1.15 Elvis Peguero 3.15 4.24 -1.09 Colin Rea 3.38 4.34 -0.96 Hoby Milner 4.92 3.31 1.61 Bryan Hudson having the biggest negative difference is fascinating. His 28.4% strikeout rate is excellent, but his walk rate of 6.8% and home run rate of 3.2% are both closer to average. Because home runs are weighted so heavily (by a coefficient of 13 in the formula), the six that he has given up drag down his numbers, even though all except one have been solo shots. On the other end of things, poor Hoby Milner has gotten the short end of the stick this season. He has gotten torched on batted balls this summer, but has only given up five home runs over 53 innings. His walk rate of 6.3% is right around the top quartile of the league, even if he’s not the greatest strikeout accumulator the world has ever seen. So what does this mean? Are Brewers pitchers overrated? Is their success solely the result of eating a dozen grapes at midnight before each outing? Should you take the over on earned runs for every Milwaukee game from here on out? As with everything in baseball and quantum mechanics, the answer is "sort of...?" We’ve already talked about what FIP is, so let’s talk about what it is not. Some people like to think FIP is a more accurate representation of a pitcher’s abilities because it’s isolated to things they can control, but there are several flaws with this thesis. First of all, there is far more to pitching than the three true outcomes. Second, the somewhat arbitrary weighting of the outcomes punishes pitchers more than others for unfair reasons. Giving up a three-run homer and one-run homer should not count the same, some argue, because they are very different results in a game. Furthermore, a hypothetical pitcher with a penchant for giving up tons of runs on line drives while conceding no home runs or free passes would theoretically have a better FIP than someone who gives up a solo home run every so often, and nothing else. Finally, while Statcast has made intangible numbers like expected batting average more accessible, ultimately what happens on the field is what decides a game. Even if Bryan Hudson is "supposed to" give up twice as many runs as he has, he hasn’t. To broaden that to the Brewers as a whole, even if they were "supposed to" give up more runs, they haven't. All that said, one upside of paying attention to FIP is that it has been a more accurate predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. It’s an imperfect stat, like everything in baseball, but it's not totally useless. In fact, FanGraphs deliberately uses FIP instead of ERA to calculate WAR for pitchers. The broader takeaway from this should be that Milwaukee’s arms may be overperforming, and these results likely won’t last--at least not with the roster as is. Luckily, the return of guys with great FIPs like Trevor Megill (in the short term) and Brandon Woodruff (in the long term) should help offset some of the anticipated backslide. For now, we can only hope that what they have is enough to get the team through a few more months of postseason-quality baseball.
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Honorable Mentions Jakob Junis 15.0 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 9 K Unfortunately for Brewers fans, Junis was hitting a real post-IL stride before being sent off to the division rival Reds. His 2.40 ERA for the month was one of the best in the bullpen, and quite a few people had hoped he would be kept around. He had a rocky first outing with his new team, giving up three earned runs in 1 ⅓ innings, so maybe Milwaukee knew he was reaching the end of a good stretch. Rob Zastryzny 7 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Another tragic victim of the arm epidemic, Zastryzny, was pitching excellently before hitting the 15-day IL with left elbow tendinitis in the final week of July. He signed a minor-league contract with the Brewers after being designated for assignment last September by the Pirates. He was a good late-inning reliever with the Nashville Sounds in Triple-A. His 1.17 ERA over his nine appearances last month may be the best stretch he has had since his rookie campaign with the Cubs in 2016. Hoby Milner 12 2/3 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 12 K Master Milner found his footing again after a rough June, which saw him post a 9.64 ERA against a 3.25 FIP over 9 ⅓ innings. Trusting in his stuff again, his numbers became a more accurate reflection of his skill as a reliever, and he had his best month by ERA since April. His numbers aren’t great, and his season WHIP of 1.22 is particularly high, but he should be able to cruise through the remainder of the year. Colin Rea 28.0 IP, 24 H, 11 ER, 7 BB, 28 K Rea continued the momentum he found in June with yet another quality month of starts in July. He put up a 3.54 ERA while reaching a K/9 rate of 9.0, the highest for a single month this year. Quite a few people assumed that he would eventually fall back to an ERA in the 4.50 ballpark, closer to his career averages, but he has refused to do so. He leads the rotation in rWAR and has been of excellent value to the team thus far. Pitcher of the Month - Tobias Myers 23 1/3 IP, 21 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 22 K He is one of the best rookie pitching talents in the game today. Myers doesn’t get the same attention as other National League rookies, probably because he isn’t dating an LSU gymnast. Nonetheless, his 3.10 ERA over 15 starts is outstanding, and he leads all Milwaukee starters in WHIP at 1.14. July was the second month he rose to the top, following a 1.44 ERA in June.
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Through continued issues with the health of their starting rotation, Milwaukee still managed to pitch to a combined 3.85 ERA over 24 games. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo Honorable Mentions Jakob Junis 15.0 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 9 K Unfortunately for Brewers fans, Junis was hitting a real post-IL stride before being sent off to the division rival Reds. His 2.40 ERA for the month was one of the best in the bullpen, and quite a few people had hoped he would be kept around. He had a rocky first outing with his new team, giving up three earned runs in 1 ⅓ innings, so maybe Milwaukee knew he was reaching the end of a good stretch. Rob Zastryzny 7 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Another tragic victim of the arm epidemic, Zastryzny, was pitching excellently before hitting the 15-day IL with left elbow tendinitis in the final week of July. He signed a minor-league contract with the Brewers after being designated for assignment last September by the Pirates. He was a good late-inning reliever with the Nashville Sounds in Triple-A. His 1.17 ERA over his nine appearances last month may be the best stretch he has had since his rookie campaign with the Cubs in 2016. Hoby Milner 12 2/3 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 12 K Master Milner found his footing again after a rough June, which saw him post a 9.64 ERA against a 3.25 FIP over 9 ⅓ innings. Trusting in his stuff again, his numbers became a more accurate reflection of his skill as a reliever, and he had his best month by ERA since April. His numbers aren’t great, and his season WHIP of 1.22 is particularly high, but he should be able to cruise through the remainder of the year. Colin Rea 28.0 IP, 24 H, 11 ER, 7 BB, 28 K Rea continued the momentum he found in June with yet another quality month of starts in July. He put up a 3.54 ERA while reaching a K/9 rate of 9.0, the highest for a single month this year. Quite a few people assumed that he would eventually fall back to an ERA in the 4.50 ballpark, closer to his career averages, but he has refused to do so. He leads the rotation in rWAR and has been of excellent value to the team thus far. Pitcher of the Month - Tobias Myers 23 1/3 IP, 21 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 22 K He is one of the best rookie pitching talents in the game today. Myers doesn’t get the same attention as other National League rookies, probably because he isn’t dating an LSU gymnast. Nonetheless, his 3.10 ERA over 15 starts is outstanding, and he leads all Milwaukee starters in WHIP at 1.14. July was the second month he rose to the top, following a 1.44 ERA in June. View full article
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Milwaukee had their first month with fewer wins than losses in July, going 11-13, but still managed to post a modest yet positive run differential of +2 and a respectable combined .730 OPS. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo Honorable Mentions Eric Haase 31 PA, .345/.387/.655, 10 H, 3 HR, 4 R, 8 RBI, 2 BB, 13 K Haase had a small sample size of plate appearances but I felt that his performance was worth a brief mention. July was the first month he got major league at-bats with Milwaukee, and he made the most out of this opportunity, posting a team-leading 1.042 OPS. Rhys Hoskins 84 PA, .192/.262/.507, 14 H, 2 2B, 7 HR, 11 R, 19 RBI, 6 BB, 26 K, 2 HBP To many, a .192 batting average may automatically disqualify a hitter from receiving any sort of praise. Still, Hoskins was an integral part of the Brewers’ run-scoring in July, leading the team in RBI for the month. Over half of his hits were for extra bases, and his power has been as advertised. His overall production is still on the lower end with an OPS+ of just 104, and especially for a first baseman, the Brewers were likely hoping for more. Jackson Chourio 88 PA, .317/.364/.512, 26 H, 7 2B, 3 HR, 14 R, 12 RBI, 6 BB, 12 K, 4 SB With a .876 total OPS for July, Chourio continued the momentum he started last month. His strikeout rate of 13.6% was the lowest of any month in his career so far, and he’s clearly made big adjustments to compete at the big league level. After being one of the worst hitters on the team at the end of May, he has managed to claw his way back to having an OPS+ of 101 while playing elite defense. Long story short, Jackson Chourio is really good. Who knew? Willy Adames 103 PA, .312/.369/.516, 29 H, 7 2B, 4 HR, 14 R, 17 RBI, 9 BB, 33 K, 2 SB Adames had an intriguing month. Despite a wicked strikeout rate of 32.0%, he still managed to hit for an excellent average and great power, leading the team in total bases with 48. It was a big bounce back, going from a .592 OPS in June to a .885 OPS in July, the best month he’s had this season. He now has the team's third-highest OPS+ among qualified hitters at 110. In the days leading up to this year’s trade deadline, general manager Matt Arnold mentioned how important Adames was to the team, stating that they probably weren’t going to trade him. Do the Brewers have plans to re-sign him when he becomes a free agent this year? Only time will tell. Hitter of the Month - Christian Yelich 66 PA, .288/.431/.577, 15 H, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 10 R, 6 RBI, 12 BB, 9 K, 1 HBP, 3 SB Yelich has been battling the same perennial back issues he’s had throughout his career, but even in the face of such adversity, he has played the best baseball of his life since 2019. July saw him recover from a slight slump he encountered in June, bringing his walk rate to an astounding 18.2% and his home run rate to 4.5%. It’s still unclear when he’ll return to the lineup. He’s stated that he’d like to delay surgery as long as possible to avoid missing the remainder of the season, but manager Pat Murphy has gone on to say that surgery is “inevitable.” Losing Yelich for the last 50 games of the year and the postseason would be devastating, especially given his output thus far, but he’s not out of the picture just yet. View full article
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Honorable Mentions Eric Haase 31 PA, .345/.387/.655, 10 H, 3 HR, 4 R, 8 RBI, 2 BB, 13 K Haase had a small sample size of plate appearances but I felt that his performance was worth a brief mention. July was the first month he got major league at-bats with Milwaukee, and he made the most out of this opportunity, posting a team-leading 1.042 OPS. Rhys Hoskins 84 PA, .192/.262/.507, 14 H, 2 2B, 7 HR, 11 R, 19 RBI, 6 BB, 26 K, 2 HBP To many, a .192 batting average may automatically disqualify a hitter from receiving any sort of praise. Still, Hoskins was an integral part of the Brewers’ run-scoring in July, leading the team in RBI for the month. Over half of his hits were for extra bases, and his power has been as advertised. His overall production is still on the lower end with an OPS+ of just 104, and especially for a first baseman, the Brewers were likely hoping for more. Jackson Chourio 88 PA, .317/.364/.512, 26 H, 7 2B, 3 HR, 14 R, 12 RBI, 6 BB, 12 K, 4 SB With a .876 total OPS for July, Chourio continued the momentum he started last month. His strikeout rate of 13.6% was the lowest of any month in his career so far, and he’s clearly made big adjustments to compete at the big league level. After being one of the worst hitters on the team at the end of May, he has managed to claw his way back to having an OPS+ of 101 while playing elite defense. Long story short, Jackson Chourio is really good. Who knew? Willy Adames 103 PA, .312/.369/.516, 29 H, 7 2B, 4 HR, 14 R, 17 RBI, 9 BB, 33 K, 2 SB Adames had an intriguing month. Despite a wicked strikeout rate of 32.0%, he still managed to hit for an excellent average and great power, leading the team in total bases with 48. It was a big bounce back, going from a .592 OPS in June to a .885 OPS in July, the best month he’s had this season. He now has the team's third-highest OPS+ among qualified hitters at 110. In the days leading up to this year’s trade deadline, general manager Matt Arnold mentioned how important Adames was to the team, stating that they probably weren’t going to trade him. Do the Brewers have plans to re-sign him when he becomes a free agent this year? Only time will tell. Hitter of the Month - Christian Yelich 66 PA, .288/.431/.577, 15 H, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 10 R, 6 RBI, 12 BB, 9 K, 1 HBP, 3 SB Yelich has been battling the same perennial back issues he’s had throughout his career, but even in the face of such adversity, he has played the best baseball of his life since 2019. July saw him recover from a slight slump he encountered in June, bringing his walk rate to an astounding 18.2% and his home run rate to 4.5%. It’s still unclear when he’ll return to the lineup. He’s stated that he’d like to delay surgery as long as possible to avoid missing the remainder of the season, but manager Pat Murphy has gone on to say that surgery is “inevitable.” Losing Yelich for the last 50 games of the year and the postseason would be devastating, especially given his output thus far, but he’s not out of the picture just yet.
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While other teams scrambled to find new bats and arms in July, the Brewers were like a Prius at a muscle car meet: relatively quiet. They added no new position players, and instead picked up two project starters, an intriguing reliever, and a 30-year-old rookie. Here is the list of all of the deals they made: July 3: Acquired RHP Aaron Civale from Rays in exchange for SS Gregory Barrios (#19 ranked prospect in Brewers system) July 21: Acquired LHP Tyler Jay from Mets in exchange for RHP TJ Shook July 27: Acquired RHP Nick Mears from Rockies in exchange for RHP Bradley Blalock (#17 ranked prospect in Brewers system) and RHP Yujanyer Herrera July 30: Acquired RHP Frankie Montas from Reds in exchange for OF Joey Wiemer, RHP Jakob Junis, and cash It was well understood that Milwaukee would be vying for starting pitching, but Civale and Montas don’t seem like the difference-makers fans were hoping for. Both have clear weaknesses and are pitching to ERAs around 5.00 this year. They may be serviceable back-of-the-rotation guys, at least, but neither one will likely end up being 2008 CC Sabathia. Even more concerning is how dormant the team was compared to its closest rivals. The Cardinals are six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and were a participant in this year’s sole three-team trade, involving the White Sox and the Dodgers. They added Erick Fedde to improve their rotation and reunited with Tommy Pham to help stabilize their outfield and bring a platoon advantage against lefties. The Pirates, also six games behind, also had a slight retooling by adding Bryan De La Cruz and Jalen Beeks while getting rid of a struggling Martín Pérez and a similarly below-replacement pitcher in Quinn Priester. Their roster still doesn’t seem to be as concerning as that of St. Louis, but with one more head-to-head series in September, they could take a few crucial wins away from the Brewers at the 11th hour. Looking at the broader competitive set of the National League as a whole, the Phillies and Dodgers did their best to make moves that would secure their postseason byes. The Phillies snagged lefty reliever Tanner Banks, Angels closer Carlos Estévez, and veteran outfielder Austin Hays. The Dodgers were arguably the most active, acquiring Jack Flaherty, Kevin Kiermaier, Amed Rosario, Tommy Edman, and Michael Kopech. Even the Padres managed to win the services of the highly sought-after Tanner Scott. All of these teams are potential postseason opponents for the Crew. Even if the Brewers hang onto the top spot in the NL Central, will their roster be enough to get past the Wild Card or Division Series? On one hand, it may not be entirely their fault. This is the organization’s typical MO, and it’s not like there were a ton of great rental arms up for sale. The Astros, neck-and-neck with the Mariners for the lead in the AL West, gave up a whole bunch just for Yusei Kikuchi, a guy with a 4.75 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Other starters that got sold off include Paul Blackburn (4.41 ERA), Zach Eflin (4.11 ERA), and Trevor Rogers (4.53), players with numbers in line with the pieces that Milwaukee did manage to add. They were in on Flaherty, though more so a day or two before the deadline than as the final hours ticked away. They checked in on Fedde, but those talks didn't progress. Were they simply unwilling to compete with the Dodgers and Cardinals on price, or were they outmaneuvered in trade talks? Do they know something about Montas and Civale (or about Flaherty) that we don’t? Will they somehow find a way to sign the 1986 version of Teddy Higuera? Who knows. But with no new bats, no flashy arms, and the same crushing injury problems, things seem a little less rosy after watching playoff-bound rivals improve a bit more than the Crew did.
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With an underwhelming haul this year, does Milwaukee have the manpower to hold onto their divisional lead and succeed in October? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports While other teams scrambled to find new bats and arms in July, the Brewers were like a Prius at a muscle car meet: relatively quiet. They added no new position players, and instead picked up two project starters, an intriguing reliever, and a 30-year-old rookie. Here is the list of all of the deals they made: July 3: Acquired RHP Aaron Civale from Rays in exchange for SS Gregory Barrios (#19 ranked prospect in Brewers system) July 21: Acquired LHP Tyler Jay from Mets in exchange for RHP TJ Shook July 27: Acquired RHP Nick Mears from Rockies in exchange for RHP Bradley Blalock (#17 ranked prospect in Brewers system) and RHP Yujanyer Herrera July 30: Acquired RHP Frankie Montas from Reds in exchange for OF Joey Wiemer, RHP Jakob Junis, and cash It was well understood that Milwaukee would be vying for starting pitching, but Civale and Montas don’t seem like the difference-makers fans were hoping for. Both have clear weaknesses and are pitching to ERAs around 5.00 this year. They may be serviceable back-of-the-rotation guys, at least, but neither one will likely end up being 2008 CC Sabathia. Even more concerning is how dormant the team was compared to its closest rivals. The Cardinals are six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and were a participant in this year’s sole three-team trade, involving the White Sox and the Dodgers. They added Erick Fedde to improve their rotation and reunited with Tommy Pham to help stabilize their outfield and bring a platoon advantage against lefties. The Pirates, also six games behind, also had a slight retooling by adding Bryan De La Cruz and Jalen Beeks while getting rid of a struggling Martín Pérez and a similarly below-replacement pitcher in Quinn Priester. Their roster still doesn’t seem to be as concerning as that of St. Louis, but with one more head-to-head series in September, they could take a few crucial wins away from the Brewers at the 11th hour. Looking at the broader competitive set of the National League as a whole, the Phillies and Dodgers did their best to make moves that would secure their postseason byes. The Phillies snagged lefty reliever Tanner Banks, Angels closer Carlos Estévez, and veteran outfielder Austin Hays. The Dodgers were arguably the most active, acquiring Jack Flaherty, Kevin Kiermaier, Amed Rosario, Tommy Edman, and Michael Kopech. Even the Padres managed to win the services of the highly sought-after Tanner Scott. All of these teams are potential postseason opponents for the Crew. Even if the Brewers hang onto the top spot in the NL Central, will their roster be enough to get past the Wild Card or Division Series? On one hand, it may not be entirely their fault. This is the organization’s typical MO, and it’s not like there were a ton of great rental arms up for sale. The Astros, neck-and-neck with the Mariners for the lead in the AL West, gave up a whole bunch just for Yusei Kikuchi, a guy with a 4.75 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Other starters that got sold off include Paul Blackburn (4.41 ERA), Zach Eflin (4.11 ERA), and Trevor Rogers (4.53), players with numbers in line with the pieces that Milwaukee did manage to add. They were in on Flaherty, though more so a day or two before the deadline than as the final hours ticked away. They checked in on Fedde, but those talks didn't progress. Were they simply unwilling to compete with the Dodgers and Cardinals on price, or were they outmaneuvered in trade talks? Do they know something about Montas and Civale (or about Flaherty) that we don’t? Will they somehow find a way to sign the 1986 version of Teddy Higuera? Who knows. But with no new bats, no flashy arms, and the same crushing injury problems, things seem a little less rosy after watching playoff-bound rivals improve a bit more than the Crew did. View full article
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Colin Rea: 3.60 ERA - best season of his life in the major leagues. Bryse Wilson: 3.99 ERA - had a combined 5.46 ERA across 36 starts in 2021 and 2022. Aaron Civale: 4.29 ERA - too soon to see any major improvements. Another pitching project for Milwaukee. I feel like going to the Yankees destroyed his mental (as it tends to do with a ton of players to be honest) but hopefully he can get it back with the right guidance. Excited to see where this goes in the final ~50 games of the season.
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It was recently announced that Trevor Megill, the team’s closer in Devin Williams’ absence, has hit the 15-day injured list due to back issues. At this point, Brewers fans are all too familiar with pitching injuries, but this is part of a bigger concern outside of another hurt pitcher. Heading into trade season, the Brewers' clear point of strength was their bullpen. Despite an immense workload of 435 combined innings, they’ve posted a 3.31 ERA, which is third-best in MLB. Megill was having a standout year, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 20 saves in his first year as a closer. Following the return of their All-Star Airbender, the Brewers had a clear surplus of relievers. Names like Joel Payamps and Hoby Milner were among those rumored to be potentially packaged away. Alas, nothing in Milwaukee can ever be that easy. Just a few days before Megill was sidelined, Bryan Hudson also hit the 15-day IL with an oblique strain. He had a rough few outings in July but was still pitching to a cumulative ERA of 1.60 and WHIP of 0.75 over his 50 ⅔ innings. So what does this mean for the next 24 hours? Well, the Brewers front office will have to figure out what they feel comfortable parting with. While Payamps and Milner may have been expendable before, they might now become integral, at least for the next few weeks. The Brewers have a somewhat comfortable six-game lead over the second-place St. Louis Cardinals, but recovery timelines have rarely gone the team’s way this year. Hudson and Megill could be out for a while, and Williams is coming off a long layoff. Luckily, the Brewers may have some position players who are reportedly drawing interest from suitors, namely Garrett Mitchell, so they still have some names to swap. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem likely that the team will continue to prioritize pursuing relievers. However, this may make acquiring a real impact starter or bat more difficult without making real sacrifices at the major or minor league level. As with most things in baseball, it’s hard to say exactly how things will pan out at this time. Milwaukee has been relatively quiet thus far, especially with the Cardinals making a splash and acquiring Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a three-team trade with the White Sox and Dodgers. For now, we can at least hope that both Megill and Hudson have speedy recoveries and continue their stellar seasons through October.
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With less than 24 hours to go until the trade deadline and yet another arm hitting the injured list, Milwaukee might have to rethink its strategy. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports It was recently announced that Trevor Megill, the team’s closer in Devin Williams’ absence, has hit the 15-day injured list due to back issues. At this point, Brewers fans are all too familiar with pitching injuries, but this is part of a bigger concern outside of another hurt pitcher. Heading into trade season, the Brewers' clear point of strength was their bullpen. Despite an immense workload of 435 combined innings, they’ve posted a 3.31 ERA, which is third-best in MLB. Megill was having a standout year, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 20 saves in his first year as a closer. Following the return of their All-Star Airbender, the Brewers had a clear surplus of relievers. Names like Joel Payamps and Hoby Milner were among those rumored to be potentially packaged away. Alas, nothing in Milwaukee can ever be that easy. Just a few days before Megill was sidelined, Bryan Hudson also hit the 15-day IL with an oblique strain. He had a rough few outings in July but was still pitching to a cumulative ERA of 1.60 and WHIP of 0.75 over his 50 ⅔ innings. So what does this mean for the next 24 hours? Well, the Brewers front office will have to figure out what they feel comfortable parting with. While Payamps and Milner may have been expendable before, they might now become integral, at least for the next few weeks. The Brewers have a somewhat comfortable six-game lead over the second-place St. Louis Cardinals, but recovery timelines have rarely gone the team’s way this year. Hudson and Megill could be out for a while, and Williams is coming off a long layoff. Luckily, the Brewers may have some position players who are reportedly drawing interest from suitors, namely Garrett Mitchell, so they still have some names to swap. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem likely that the team will continue to prioritize pursuing relievers. However, this may make acquiring a real impact starter or bat more difficult without making real sacrifices at the major or minor league level. As with most things in baseball, it’s hard to say exactly how things will pan out at this time. Milwaukee has been relatively quiet thus far, especially with the Cardinals making a splash and acquiring Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a three-team trade with the White Sox and Dodgers. For now, we can at least hope that both Megill and Hudson have speedy recoveries and continue their stellar seasons through October. View full article
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- trevor megill
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A rental starter who’s having a great year sounds like the perfect fit for a Milwaukee team in need of a healthy, high-end arm. Image courtesy of © Junfu Han - USA TODAY NETWORK For the tenth year in a row, the Detroit Tigers are going to miss the playoffs. With the vultures already circling, waiting for their chance to acquire the team’s lefty ace, Tarik Skubal, teammate Jack Flaherty might be an undervalued short-term starter. That is exactly what the Brewers should be pursuing for the final portion of the 2024 regular season. What He Does Well When he’s at his best, Flaherty attacks the strike zone with extreme prejudice. His whiff, strikeout, and walk rates are all in the top decile of qualified pitchers. The tradeoff is that he gives up more barrels and gets fewer ground balls than he would like, but his 2.95 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 100 ⅔ innings have shown that he’s winning more battles than he's losing. The years since his breakout 2019 campaign have been rocky. He’s only managed to pitch more than 80 innings once, and from 2020-2023, he averaged a 4.42 ERA. His strikeout rate remained high, at 24.1%, but he was giving up far too many baserunners, with a WHIP of 1.40 in that span. What’s he doing differently this year? His knuckle-curve has posted pretty consistent results since he's arrived in the big leagues, even when times were the toughest. However, 2024 seems to be the first time in a while that both his four-seam fastball and slider have been competitive pitches. His fastball doesn’t blow up the radar gun and averages just under 94 mph, but he’s commanding it much better this year, attacking the outside edges of the strike zone against lefties and righties. It has a 25.0% whiff rate and a 31.0% strikeout rate. His slider saw massive regression in 2023 and was a big reason for many of his rough outings. In 2024, he’s placing the pitch closer to the bottom of the zone, getting a whiff rate of 39.1% and a strikeout rate of 31.0%--massive improvements over his 26,5% and 15.0% numbers last year. Better command of the offering has made it a weapon against lefties, whereas it was a huge source of vulnerability against them in 2023. What He Doesn’t Do As Well Despite this year’s improvements, Flaherty still suffers from the same drawback of giving up hard contact, even on his best pitches. Even with high strikeout rates on both his fastball and slider, opposing batters still have ISO numbers of .151 and .221, respectively, against them. Because he lacks the velocity that creates margin for error, poor command can lead to the ball leaking into a hitter's nitro zone and getting crushed. Contract Status Flaherty is on a one-year, $14 million contract, and will be a free agent in 2025. It has been a great walk year for the young righty, and he's raised his stock considerably. He’ll probably sign a sizable contract with a team other than the Brewers, but Milwaukee really only needs him for the remainder of this season. With the Tigers still very much in a rebuild and having almost no use for the second-best starter on the team, he’s a great trade piece. He may not be as valuable or dazzling as Skubal, but he’d be a heck of a lot cheaper. Come October, he might be the second starter the Crew needs to make a deeper run into the playoffs. View full article
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Landing Jack Flaherty Would Transform the Brewers' Playoff Rotation
Jason Wang posted an article in Brewers
For the tenth year in a row, the Detroit Tigers are going to miss the playoffs. With the vultures already circling, waiting for their chance to acquire the team’s lefty ace, Tarik Skubal, teammate Jack Flaherty might be an undervalued short-term starter. That is exactly what the Brewers should be pursuing for the final portion of the 2024 regular season. What He Does Well When he’s at his best, Flaherty attacks the strike zone with extreme prejudice. His whiff, strikeout, and walk rates are all in the top decile of qualified pitchers. The tradeoff is that he gives up more barrels and gets fewer ground balls than he would like, but his 2.95 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 100 ⅔ innings have shown that he’s winning more battles than he's losing. The years since his breakout 2019 campaign have been rocky. He’s only managed to pitch more than 80 innings once, and from 2020-2023, he averaged a 4.42 ERA. His strikeout rate remained high, at 24.1%, but he was giving up far too many baserunners, with a WHIP of 1.40 in that span. What’s he doing differently this year? His knuckle-curve has posted pretty consistent results since he's arrived in the big leagues, even when times were the toughest. However, 2024 seems to be the first time in a while that both his four-seam fastball and slider have been competitive pitches. His fastball doesn’t blow up the radar gun and averages just under 94 mph, but he’s commanding it much better this year, attacking the outside edges of the strike zone against lefties and righties. It has a 25.0% whiff rate and a 31.0% strikeout rate. His slider saw massive regression in 2023 and was a big reason for many of his rough outings. In 2024, he’s placing the pitch closer to the bottom of the zone, getting a whiff rate of 39.1% and a strikeout rate of 31.0%--massive improvements over his 26,5% and 15.0% numbers last year. Better command of the offering has made it a weapon against lefties, whereas it was a huge source of vulnerability against them in 2023. What He Doesn’t Do As Well Despite this year’s improvements, Flaherty still suffers from the same drawback of giving up hard contact, even on his best pitches. Even with high strikeout rates on both his fastball and slider, opposing batters still have ISO numbers of .151 and .221, respectively, against them. Because he lacks the velocity that creates margin for error, poor command can lead to the ball leaking into a hitter's nitro zone and getting crushed. Contract Status Flaherty is on a one-year, $14 million contract, and will be a free agent in 2025. It has been a great walk year for the young righty, and he's raised his stock considerably. He’ll probably sign a sizable contract with a team other than the Brewers, but Milwaukee really only needs him for the remainder of this season. With the Tigers still very much in a rebuild and having almost no use for the second-best starter on the team, he’s a great trade piece. He may not be as valuable or dazzling as Skubal, but he’d be a heck of a lot cheaper. Come October, he might be the second starter the Crew needs to make a deeper run into the playoffs. -
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Two games in Minnesota showed how the young prospect has finally turned the corner toward superstardom. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Last month, I wrote about how Jackson Chourio’s improved swing decisions against fastballs helped drive an offensive resurgence. I worried about whether that topic would age like milk, but thankfully, it has aged more like the Franzia you bought when you first turned 21--not that Chourio would know. He’s kept up the good work and has had a few flashes of greatness, most recently in the series against the Twins. In two games, he racked up five hits, with a double, a home run, five RBIs, and two stolen bases. This home run was particularly impressive because it was against a pretty good fastball from Jorge Alcalá: 97.8 miles per hour, high and tight. Furthermore, high velocity was something that Chourio struggled with immensely early in the season. From the start of the season through May 31, he had just a .414 OPS against pitches with a velocity of 95 MPH or greater. Since Jun. 1, his OPS has jumped up to .851 against such offerings. Not coincidentally, that's very close to his overall line in that span, which is .309/.363/.504. Everything is looking better, but here are some of the most meaningful advancements: Before 6/1 After 6/1 BA .120 .321 SLG .200 .464 ISO .080 .143 K% 42.9% 16.1% BABIP .231 .364 It was the kind of incandescent showing that seizes the attention of every fan in attendance, and it certainly didn't escape the notice of his manager. "What can you say? That's amazing, what he's doing," Pat Murphy said after Sunday's contest. "These two games, you'd walk away saying, 'Wow, that kid deserves $150 million.'" In addition to making strides at the plate, he’s evolved into an outstanding defender. At the beginning of the season, there were some questions about his ability to play the corner outfield spots, after playing center for the majority of his time in the minor leagues. Furthermore, there were some shaky routes at the beginning of the season to add onto the concerns. Those worries, too, have been assuaged lately--especially this weekend. What’s Next? Although he’s come around to hit the four-seam fastball well, there are other pitches against which Chourio still struggles. He’s averaging just .179 against the changeup, with a 27.6% strikeout rate, something that hasn’t gotten much better throughout the season. He’s also struggled to hit the sinker with much power, posting a .038 ISO. Outside of his hitting, I’ve been curious about how soon it will be before he becomes a stolen base menace like his compatriots Brice Turang and Christian Yelich. He has 97th-percentile sprint speed, and he was aggressive in the minors, but he has just 12 stolen bases as a rookie. This may have been hindered by his relatively low OBP early on, but even in his hot streak over the past two months, he’s stolen just five bases. Nonetheless, all of the growth the wünderkind has had in a little over half a season is a reminder of why his prospect stock was so high. It took him around 200 plate appearances to start catching up to big-league velocity, but the sky’s the limit in what he’ll be able to do in the final 200 plate appearances of his rookie year. Brewer Fanatic's Matthew Trueblood contributed to this report. View full article
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Last month, I wrote about how Jackson Chourio’s improved swing decisions against fastballs helped drive an offensive resurgence. I worried about whether that topic would age like milk, but thankfully, it has aged more like the Franzia you bought when you first turned 21--not that Chourio would know. He’s kept up the good work and has had a few flashes of greatness, most recently in the series against the Twins. In two games, he racked up five hits, with a double, a home run, five RBIs, and two stolen bases. This home run was particularly impressive because it was against a pretty good fastball from Jorge Alcalá: 97.8 miles per hour, high and tight. Furthermore, high velocity was something that Chourio struggled with immensely early in the season. From the start of the season through May 31, he had just a .414 OPS against pitches with a velocity of 95 MPH or greater. Since Jun. 1, his OPS has jumped up to .851 against such offerings. Not coincidentally, that's very close to his overall line in that span, which is .309/.363/.504. Everything is looking better, but here are some of the most meaningful advancements: Before 6/1 After 6/1 BA .120 .321 SLG .200 .464 ISO .080 .143 K% 42.9% 16.1% BABIP .231 .364 It was the kind of incandescent showing that seizes the attention of every fan in attendance, and it certainly didn't escape the notice of his manager. "What can you say? That's amazing, what he's doing," Pat Murphy said after Sunday's contest. "These two games, you'd walk away saying, 'Wow, that kid deserves $150 million.'" In addition to making strides at the plate, he’s evolved into an outstanding defender. At the beginning of the season, there were some questions about his ability to play the corner outfield spots, after playing center for the majority of his time in the minor leagues. Furthermore, there were some shaky routes at the beginning of the season to add onto the concerns. Those worries, too, have been assuaged lately--especially this weekend. What’s Next? Although he’s come around to hit the four-seam fastball well, there are other pitches against which Chourio still struggles. He’s averaging just .179 against the changeup, with a 27.6% strikeout rate, something that hasn’t gotten much better throughout the season. He’s also struggled to hit the sinker with much power, posting a .038 ISO. Outside of his hitting, I’ve been curious about how soon it will be before he becomes a stolen base menace like his compatriots Brice Turang and Christian Yelich. He has 97th-percentile sprint speed, and he was aggressive in the minors, but he has just 12 stolen bases as a rookie. This may have been hindered by his relatively low OBP early on, but even in his hot streak over the past two months, he’s stolen just five bases. Nonetheless, all of the growth the wünderkind has had in a little over half a season is a reminder of why his prospect stock was so high. It took him around 200 plate appearances to start catching up to big-league velocity, but the sky’s the limit in what he’ll be able to do in the final 200 plate appearances of his rookie year. Brewer Fanatic's Matthew Trueblood contributed to this report.
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Milwaukee Brewers All-Anagram Team
Jason Wang replied to Matt Breen's topic in Brewer Fanatic Front Page News
upwards of 60% of these could just be names of pre-integration era players "brice turang is the first player to steal first base twice in one game since roger breasts of the louisville colonels in 1887" -
3 Players Who Disappointed in the First Half
Jason Wang replied to Jason Wang's topic in Brewer Fanatic Front Page News
personally, i have beef with him because he never responds to my twitter dms -
While the rest of the team has been cooking, who has yet to find their mojo in 2024? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Hoby Milner Following a marquee year where he posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 64 ⅓ innings, Milner has struggled to keep up the Hoby heroics. He has regressed meaningfully in ERA (4.91), WHIP (1.25), and H/9 (9.2) since the end of 2023. On the bright side, it might not even be his fault. A closer look at his quality of contact numbers show that he’s more or less been the same, pitch-to-contact ground-ball god that he was last year. His hard-hit rate has actually decreased slightly from 35.4% to 32.8%, and his barrel rate of 3.1% is in the 97th percentile, so what gives? To make a long story even longer, Jack Stern did a great job breaking down what has been going on this season but pretty much he’s been on the receiving end of some suspect batted balls. That might explain why his xERA of 3.17 is so much better than his actual ERA. While there are a ton of excellent video examples in the aforementioned article, here’s yet another one of a batted ball with an exit velocity of 72.3 mph and a launch angle of -59 degrees that became a hit. Freddy Peralta With Corbin Burnes being sent off to Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff being sent off to Sunshine Day Camp for Tommy John Recipients, 2024 was Peralta’s year to assume the role of team ace. It was an exciting opportunity for a young arm who has spent his entire major league career with the Brewers but things haven’t gone as swimmingly as some might have hoped. His 4.11 ERA and 1.19 aren’t bad numbers by any means but they are hardly what one would be hoping for out of the top guy in the rotation. Colin Rea and Tobias Myers have arguably outperformed Peralta whose own numbers are closer to that of Bryse Wilson, a long reliever turned emergency starter. His strikeout and whiff rates are top notch as per usual but he simply gives up too much hard contact at hitter-friendly launch angles, creating a barrel rate of 8.9%. Opposing batters are averaging .238 and slugging .411 against his four-seam fastball which has historically been his best pitch. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s a pleasure to watch and his 11.4 K/9 leads all Brewers pitchers, qualified or not. His overall strikeout rate of 30.1% creates a feast-or-famine pitching style that limited his ability to be great in the first 97 games of the season. Rhys Hoskins When Milwaukee first signed Rhys Hoskins, it was assumed that the recurring problems at first base would be alleviated. The Brewers didn’t get a ton of production out of their first basemen in 2023 until they acquired Carlos Santana in the second half, who was about league-average. Hoskins seemed like a plus-bat that would add some much-needed pop and pizzazz to the lineup and so far, it hasn’t really played out that way. He’s slashing .215/.308/.414 with just nine doubles and 14 home runs over 296 plate appearances. He is fifth on the team in slugging percentage among qualified hitters and has an OPS+ of 100. With negative defensive value, he’s actually slightly below replacement level given the offensive expectations of his position. Was it unreasonable to assume he was going to return to full strength after missing an entire year due to injury? Probably, but he’s the third-highest paid player on the team this year and is making more than twice the fourth-highest paid player. Surely the frugal front office wouldn’t have invested a minimum of $16 million into a first baseman with average production. Diagnosing his issues might be worth a deep dive of its own but for now, we as fickle, uncoordinated, unathletic, judgmental baseball fans can comfortably say that Hoskins hasn’t been what we had hoped he would be in a Brewers uniform. View full article
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Hoby Milner Following a marquee year where he posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 64 ⅓ innings, Milner has struggled to keep up the Hoby heroics. He has regressed meaningfully in ERA (4.91), WHIP (1.25), and H/9 (9.2) since the end of 2023. On the bright side, it might not even be his fault. A closer look at his quality of contact numbers show that he’s more or less been the same, pitch-to-contact ground-ball god that he was last year. His hard-hit rate has actually decreased slightly from 35.4% to 32.8%, and his barrel rate of 3.1% is in the 97th percentile, so what gives? To make a long story even longer, Jack Stern did a great job breaking down what has been going on this season but pretty much he’s been on the receiving end of some suspect batted balls. That might explain why his xERA of 3.17 is so much better than his actual ERA. While there are a ton of excellent video examples in the aforementioned article, here’s yet another one of a batted ball with an exit velocity of 72.3 mph and a launch angle of -59 degrees that became a hit. Freddy Peralta With Corbin Burnes being sent off to Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff being sent off to Sunshine Day Camp for Tommy John Recipients, 2024 was Peralta’s year to assume the role of team ace. It was an exciting opportunity for a young arm who has spent his entire major league career with the Brewers but things haven’t gone as swimmingly as some might have hoped. His 4.11 ERA and 1.19 aren’t bad numbers by any means but they are hardly what one would be hoping for out of the top guy in the rotation. Colin Rea and Tobias Myers have arguably outperformed Peralta whose own numbers are closer to that of Bryse Wilson, a long reliever turned emergency starter. His strikeout and whiff rates are top notch as per usual but he simply gives up too much hard contact at hitter-friendly launch angles, creating a barrel rate of 8.9%. Opposing batters are averaging .238 and slugging .411 against his four-seam fastball which has historically been his best pitch. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s a pleasure to watch and his 11.4 K/9 leads all Brewers pitchers, qualified or not. His overall strikeout rate of 30.1% creates a feast-or-famine pitching style that limited his ability to be great in the first 97 games of the season. Rhys Hoskins When Milwaukee first signed Rhys Hoskins, it was assumed that the recurring problems at first base would be alleviated. The Brewers didn’t get a ton of production out of their first basemen in 2023 until they acquired Carlos Santana in the second half, who was about league-average. Hoskins seemed like a plus-bat that would add some much-needed pop and pizzazz to the lineup and so far, it hasn’t really played out that way. He’s slashing .215/.308/.414 with just nine doubles and 14 home runs over 296 plate appearances. He is fifth on the team in slugging percentage among qualified hitters and has an OPS+ of 100. With negative defensive value, he’s actually slightly below replacement level given the offensive expectations of his position. Was it unreasonable to assume he was going to return to full strength after missing an entire year due to injury? Probably, but he’s the third-highest paid player on the team this year and is making more than twice the fourth-highest paid player. Surely the frugal front office wouldn’t have invested a minimum of $16 million into a first baseman with average production. Diagnosing his issues might be worth a deep dive of its own but for now, we as fickle, uncoordinated, unathletic, judgmental baseball fans can comfortably say that Hoskins hasn’t been what we had hoped he would be in a Brewers uniform.

