BrewerFan

I know there's an all-encompassing off-season thread, but hopefully, there will be some good news in the next ~12 hours on here, so I made a thread specific to Free Agency. A couple of indications the Packers plan to be aggressive(aside from Gutekunsts first couple of years until the Packers' cap situation got flipped upside down by Covid) he was aggressive in addressing weaknesses via free agency. -Kyle Fuller-4/55 offer Sheed -Allan Robinson -3/42 offer(choose the Bears instead in what invariably turns out to be a GREAT decision for both QBs and WRs). -Jimmy Graham-3/39...didn't say they were all bangers, but he was a pretty good player for 2 years...albeit significantly overpaid. Next year Za'Darius, Preston, Adrian, Billy Turner, Veldheer Since then it's been lower-cost additions like Campbell, Nixon or re-signing players like the two mentioned and then Rasul. Another indication is that Campbell is being cut with a post-June1 designation. That, Gutey, the Preston restructure and then the top 51 leaves them with about 45M in cap space not counting the draft, a Jordan Love extension, but certainly leaves them with a lot of money to sign. Finally, He's also been very clear about his belief that this team is a very real SB contender this next year...and given the youth and how they looked the last half of the season, with a new defense, a couple impact FAs and then 5 top 100 picks, you should be aggressive(not stupid, just aggressive). Obvious targets are Safeties. LBer-There are not many who seem to fit. Jerome Baker being the obvious. Eric Wilson is a priority to bring back, so I'd guess he'd come back as I don't imagine his agent's phone is ringing off the hook. https://packerswire.usatoday.com/lists/picking-a-pair-of-realistic-free-agents-for-packers-to-sign/?itm_source=parsely-api The marquee FAs listed here are Kamren Curl in one and then Kenny Moore, a very good slot in another. The price for Packers fans seems to be Xavier McKinney(though again, I think Curl would be a huge coup). My prediction is one of the top FA safeties at least. McKinney/Curl plus a guy like Fuller, Whitehead, Blackmon. I think Kenny Moore is going to be very expensive, but he'd be a big upgrade. Prediction -We re-sign Nixon Sign Xavier McKinney and Fuller, to solve the safety issue. And then a big box safety/LB Drue Tranquil would qualify IMO. 3rd-A wild card. A DT, an Edge, a position nobody thought we'd go after....maybe an edge like Huff? It's certainly exciting to have a reasonably high degree of confidence that Gutey will go out and make this team better in free agency though. The one missing ingredient from the Ted Thompson era. The one VASTLY underrated player in the Packers world is Kamren Curl. A big, physical safety who can play CF. He does not generate a lot of turnovers, but he'd just be reliable and a little more explosive than Adrian Amos when we signed him. 4/60 would be a good signing to get the production we got out of Amos IMO. I also believe Savage will be back if he's not signed in the first couple weeks. This defense should showcase his skill set much better.

Move down from ~134 to 168 by a very small amount(not sure what it was, but they qualified for a 4th, but the total AAV ranked 33rd and had to rank inside the top 32(I guess, I'm trying to paraphrase). Eh, if Free Agency goes as we hope it will and as it appears as though it'll go with the Packers being aggressive, by the time the draft comes, we should have fewer "needs."

I don't know why they'd designate Bakh a post June-1 cut. It doesn't matter either way. Campbell, that makes more sense as they save another ~7M against the cap by doing so. I liked the idea of just cutting Campbell now and moving on with a clean-er cap next year, but if they want to be active in free agency and then extend Love in May when he's eligible, it gives them more money available right now. Bakh -cut ~21M Campbell post-June 1-10.5M Before addressing Jones or Clark, that leaves the Packers at ~45M in cap space. Pushing some dead cap into the future...but you roll over the excess, so I guess it doesn't really matter, just makes for a cleaner cap. Seems like Xavier McKinney or Kamren Curl will be receiving significant contract offers from the Packers. Maybe Hafley goes and talks to former OSU DB Fuller? Curl is projected to get 4/58 McKinney 5/52 Fuller 2/12(that seems low). Justin Simmons-2/22 Jordan Whitehead is a very under-the-radar target. Big hitter, and good in coverage. Blackmon is another versatile safety. Both are very nice consolation prizes if you miss out on the top of the market. Nixon is someone the Packers are apparently trying to re-sign before FA. I think he's better suited to play safety, as he's stiff, but fast and physical. It seems like spotrac is generally low on projected FA dollars,...though there are a lot of safeties. I'd guess McKinney beats his AAV by 2-3M, Curl is close. Fuller is low. Simmons It'd be a HUGE coup to come out of Free Agency with two starting safeties, preferably one on a shorter deal so drafting a guy like Bishop, Bullock or whomever...is not a priority, but someone who can get on the field early and then step in right away and take over after their rookie year. Jerome Baker-Off-Ball Miami-Another former OSU player. OL-Connor Williams would be a great signing...one a shorter, incentive-laden deal. He likely wouldn't factor in until Nov. Doubt he'll be early to sign unless it's a one year deal to return to Miami. Tyron Smith-I think it's more likely Bakh is back next year...and I've already got him cut in this exercise. But he'd be a really good short-term answer, and we'd have protection if(when) he missed time to injury. But like Bakh, he's still elite when he plays. Mike Owenu-NE Projected salary 4/60. He's a very Packer like player in that he can play LT, RT, both Guards, play them at a high level. But, this is why you draft OL and you use FA to build in around positions like RB, LB and Safety. That's very expensive for a good OL. If you pay him that type of money, you're likely not going to just figure it out in camp. He'll probably want to play RT. Which is fine, you can slide Tom over to LT...but he'd be best used as a RG(where he happened to grade out the worst). Lloyd Cushenberry-He'd be a big upgrade over Myers, but...4/32? The Packers don't seem to agree that Josh Myers is a player who needs to be upgraded...or so they say. I think the fact that they tried both JRJ and Rhyan there early last year with little success would suggest they simply don't have a better option and can't quite admit one of the few glaring mistakes Gutey has made in taking Myers over one of the top 2-3 Centers in the league in Creed Humprehy. The Panthers also cut Bradley Bozeman for some...reason. 7.3M dead cap, ~350K cap savings. For a team with a QB who was not only sacked the most this year and whose biggest question was how he could hold up given his diminutive frame, seems strange to move on from quality OL for minimal savings, but...the Panthers aren't exactly the model franchise.

If that's what happened, then I might be with you. It's not. When the BREWERS approach Frelick(so not the other way around), one of the top 20-30 prospects in the game when promoted last year and ask him to try 3B/2B to see if he can handle it, THEN after watching him play there, the manager says that it'll be one of the biggest stories in baseball, that seems like a bit more than coach speak. This wasn't Frelick "realizing it's time to learn a new position," this was the Brewers. And again, he's played the IF in the not relatively recent past. Feels like we're forgetting Frelick was the top prospect in that logjam other than Chourio. He's arguably made the biggest impact in the shortest amount of time with a WAR of ~4.0(adjusted for a full-season). Well...that shouldn't have any impact on Frelick if they're not actually planning on playing him there. Ok...maybe. If Wilken, who has a handful of games in AA can handle 3rd or if Black can(and is a better player than Frelick, which...seems like a complete guess at this point). But sure, he doesn't have to be a 3B for the next decade for this to be a big story this year.

It would strike me as a bit odd for the manager to talk about it being one of the best stories in baseball only to see him play there in emergency situations...

I'm still optimistic. I hope he's a little more aggressive this year as his ABs were so ridiculously defensive last year...but I still think he can hit more than enough to play SS, especially with his defense(or 2B). But he can earn his ABs this year.

We're writing the guy off because he struggled at age 23?

I hate this...ideology and I know I'm in the minority, but I don't care where the power comes from. We have a catcher that can hit for power, a 1B/DH, a SS. Hopefully Yelly will continue to and our young CF prospect is projected to be a big-time power hitter. Hopefully Wiemer is also a power hitter(I don't see how he stays in MLB unless he's a power hitter). So if Frelick is a .280/.340/.380 hitter who hits 30 doubles, steals 30 bases and can play good defense...who cares that his SLG isn't ideal for the position? We're looking for cumulative improvements. Also, who on this roster is going to be the prototypical 3B? Speed, OBP skills, defense. Squeeze as much of that into the lineup as possible. They'll score runs.

To me...this is something that happens with pretty much every very good program that doesn't win it all. Badgers, every coach since Barry has gotten a lot of...crap and some of them were very successful. People are already SOMEHOW complaining about Fickel...which blows my mind. But go through Wisconsin sports. Bucks-Win a title, people still want Bud fired. Badgers-already mentioned Brewers-Counsell was widly blamed for leaving Hader in when it was "obvious he didn't have it," vs the Nats and that was right after the '18 run. Or the Freddy Freeeman HR. Or even when he left and a lot of fans tried to justify it by saying they were better off anyway. MLF- He's in a slightly different place as is just about every Packer(sans Barry) after the '23 season with some grace, but plenty of people wanted him gone after Tampa, then SF, still questions about his ability to hire coordinators...but with that 2nd half, he'll enjoy half a season of people supporting him...and that'll stop unless they win the SB next year. Sometimes it's justified. Sometimes I think it's just fans with unrealistic expectations. Winning a title in pretty much every sports requires luck and everything to go right. For Wisconsin, it requires even more than luck.

It won't be cheap, but safety is one of the more undervalued positions(probably because the Vangio system has been popular). But such a deep class, it'll be interesting to see what they do get. Spotrac has McKinney at 5/53. That's low. But 5/65 would be very reasonable. NYG didn't even offer the transition tag which would have been ~13M for this year IIRC. Curl is projected to get the biggest deal and probably a little big of a better bet, but they're both outstanding. Curl is projected to get 4/57. Chris Jones is projected to get ~29M AAV. Wilkins is projected to get 4/80 I think both get 100M and Jones probably gets more over 4 years. It's just an undervalued position compared to pass rushers or OL. It's why I'd just keep taking the premium positions at the BPA early. DeJean is a unique player if they think he can cover and play the run like an elite safety(I'm not sure he isn't just a really good CB). Even if they go cheap, Fuller is projected to get 12M over 2 years. That's a very nice stopgap Safety at a really affordable price.

Ok...well, I'm more inclined to believe Boras and the recent trend.

Sure, but that's more coaching to me. I mean, Kobe would look like Jason Kidd on that team(of course adjusted for talent level). Storr can do this a little, same with Jones or whoever from Marquette, but they're usually moving the ball, even if their great PGs are out. But what the hell do I care! It's Rutgers! Maybe all the "Fire Gard," folks can watch a talented team with poor coaching and appreciate we have a pretty damn good coach.

Sure, the defense looked good...like the old Razorbacks at times. But I saw a couple of occasions where one guy dribbled, attack, went under the basket, pulled it back out, attacked again, and then threw up a contested ~15-footer as the shot clock wound down. And they just kinda switched off doing that for a few possessions. It was...lazy, ugly basketball. They just seemed talented, and aggressive, but not very disciplined.

Again, 2 Cy Youngs. One is an ACE, the other has never finished in the top 20 of Cy Young voting. And I don't think Montgomery is more insistent upon a long-term deal. They both seem open to shorter deals...which again, I think would strongly favor Snell. Finally, factor that Snell reportedly wants to sign with Seattle and is from the area...it'd be nice though.

Well...yeah, it always depends. Usually on money. It's March 7th. I'll bet on the reigning and two-time Cy Young being further out of our price range than the dependable...but unspectacular #2/3 starter left.

Rutgers looks like a pretty talented team...that plays with absolutely ZERO discipline offensively. They just dribble the ball in circles, very little movement, just trying to win off the dribble.

He just feels more plausible to me. Snell seems too unrealistic. I would think the Yanks or someone would give Snell 4-5 years at 35. I'd love to be wrong about that.

Right...I was making a point about Guerendo as a prospect. I think there's decent depth there as well.

You're also getting Ashby back, you have what appears to be a better, deeper pen with MeGill and Uribe appearing to have figured it out and more depth. One pitcher who is a good bet to give you 180+ innings at a sub 4 ERA would, IMO, make this team much better on paper than last year. Of course, those pitchers are expensive for a reason...but it'd be fun. I also don't think I can stomach watching the Cubs beat us in the near future. I want the Counsell move to have the opposite impact desired. Watch the Cubs win 70 games and the Brewers improve the year after he leaves. Prove that he doesn't actually make a big impact(though...I think he does).

I wouldn't even consider it if it were up to me. You have Jones, I like Wilson, there are a lot of good backs out there. 10M on top of whatever Jones will cost, it makes little sense. Using Free Agency to address more pressing needs opens the door up to be able to draft a RB in the 2nd rd if they want. If they think Wright is a good fit or...Brooks, whoever. On that note, Marshon Lattimore appears to be a trade candidate OR a FA candidate. He reminds me a little bit of Woodson. He's a physical CB. Very good cover corner. Not sure he's quite as good as his reputation, but he'd certainly be an upgrade. A deal would have to be worked out before a trade as he is also owed ~13M before the first week of the regular season...similar to Rodgers deal last year. Gutey has talked about potentially using draft picks to acquire vets. Not sure exactly what makes sense here. Maybe a 5th? It's hard for me to guess with these veteran players who are pro-bowlers, but past their peak. Or even sometimes still at their peak.

Bills cutting Tre'Davious White. Makes sense, kinda a no-brainer...would be a very interesting guy to take a flier on. 250K signing bonus with the veteran salary benefit...whatever. Tack on some incentives. ACL and then the real killer, the Achilles, but if he's back week 8 next year and playing well, that could be a game changer. ON that note, their once elite safety duo are both on the market in Poyer and Hyde. Byard also a FA. A few vets who could help during the transition, lets them draft a safety and provides some depth. Not play A, but a lot of safety's on this FA market who could help. Much fewer good corners as usual.

Isn't this pretty much every sport? The team has a mountain of information, the average fan, even the really hardcore fan who follows these prospects, they've got a fraction of that information... I certainly had opinions on who I wanted to see or what I wanted the Brewers to do, same goes with the Packers, Bucks, etc...but ultimately, your confidence in the players should be informed more by the confidence in the team. They seem to do more with less and see the upside in guys. Joe Ross is one guy I could see now that he's healthy being a really nice starter. Not expecting 200 innings, but 120?

I'd love Barkley on this team...and he fits what the Packers are trying to do, but I don't think it's a good idea to pay him the ~10M a year I think he'll get. If they spend on a RB...and I hope they don't, my guess is it'd be Derrick Henry based on Gutekunsts statements. Henry is also just a freak in his durability and he's stated his priority is to win a SB. He's also already gotten paid. I don't think that means you'd get him cheap, but it might mean you could get him for 1 year at a reasonable rate. It really doesn't make sense, but they aggressively went after Taylor last year(he would make sense this year). I really thought McKinney would get a transition tag, but they didn't even bother to do that. The start of Free Agency will be interesting. I think Gutekunst is going to be aggressive early like 2019, but...we'll see.

I wouldn't mind a couple hares, but I do think this group will perform better than they're currently projected...and I trust the Brewers to get guys like...Tyson Ross throw well. Couple that with what should be an outstanding defense and I don't think the run prevention takes as big of a hit as some expect.

I guess I'd focus the attention on the guys with high ceilings who are willing to sign. I'm not viewing it as an either-or. I think it makes sense to sign as many young players as you can(obviously if they appear to be high-ceiling young players, not Blake Perkin). I'd sign Contreras using the Sean Murphy deal as a starting point, adjusting as he's a year behind. Wiemer as I think he could be signed to a favorable contract and has massive upside. Uribe...obviously. I view it like picking stocks. Obviously if there's a...Microsoft, it make sense to buy that. But it also makes sense to invest in a smaller sector ETF. A smaller, select group. You may have a couple that are losers are don't grow a lot, but if you group them together, you'll most likely see returns on your investment. I understand the counterpoint though. Just agree to disagree.