BrewerFan

I remember arguing with someone on Twitter who said he wouldn't get 40M a year. I said I thought he'd get 50(which was hardly a rare take, it was the consensus) but I thought he'd get 12-13 years. To get 70M PER year? Even with the money he brings in and with the deferred money, it is insane.

The players union will certainly go for one of the two. But the ship has sailed on the other long ago. As a Packers fan, I think about what Wellington Mara and what he did for the NFL. How he made it grow and surge past MLB by not grabbing as much cash as he could at the time, and being open to revenue sharing. I'll always be a Brewers fan, but...deals like this show you're just in a whole other universe. Oh well, farm systems, player development win. I mean, signing historically great players for the GDP of most European countries helps, but, it's not the only thing. Yup...I'll keep convincing myself of that.

Sure, but Ohtani generates a massive amount of revenue being the biggest star from Japan. So that 70M a year...still an outrageous number, but I don't think it'd be like giving Soto 70M a year. You're making a LOT of money back from having Ohtani on your team. One article I just read estimated that Ohtani generated 20M a year for the Angels, a number that is expected to be much higher for the Dodgers, a more high-profile team and a 100-win-a-year team. Assuming "most" of the money is in deferrals, the contract becomes even more "less ridiculous," and starts coming...close to maybe making some sense.

What was the reason though? It seemed like it was largely a positional need with Turang/Adames at 2B/SS and Black in the upper levels. I don't Wilken isn't going to be up for at least a year, so they can see how Black moves on the dirt. These guys will mostly figure it out themselves. If Wilken is the next quick mover, he'll force his way into 3rd. You don't take a big dude who's athletic with that type of arm and plop him at 1B. Ideally Black shows off the Glove work and can play 2B when Adames moves on, but that doesn't feel like something we've gotta worry about right now. As for now, neither has hit MLB pitching and Wilken hasn't even hit AA. So they'll have time to figure it out. But Wilken is hopefully the answer to our 3B issue.

I've always thought the Giants made the most sense. They'd been looking for the next face of their franchise...they've been pretty good in this regard with Bonds, MadBum/Posey, but they missed on Judge, Correa and others. The Asian population in SF would seemingly also help, plus the park, staying on the West Coast, all those factors. I mean, if you get to pick from all these areas while making 500-600M(or more)...I'm not picking the Cubs and that dilapidated stadium or the weather. I'm guessing SF, LAD, and Tor...which may be stupid at this point as I know he's visiting Tor today. ,

Austin Riley and Gunnar Henderson. Those are the two guys that Nichols has in the same category as Pratt? That'll work!

Yeah, I missed that. That is a little bit of a head-scratcher. Even if you lose Burnes...and Williams, it's still not depth that you're in desperate need of, it's quality. Our BP is pretty good and pretty deep and there's reason to believe it'll be even better next year(namely Uribe). Our rotation didn't have Woody for much of last year as it was and that hurts and it may lose Burnes, and that'll hurt worse, but you do have two guys who should at worst be good depth pieces in Gasser and Rodriguez. Miley, Peralta, Ashby is coming back. Houser, Rea are both back. That's not exactly the 90s Braves, but it's a lot of depth. I think Ross is just a guy they think is back healthy and that they can work with to get the most out of. They've been pretty good in this regard. They're...bargain hunting for bats hasn't been particularly rewarding, but they've done well with pitching.

More than you are at 1B...and I'd actually say fairly often. It doesn't need to be slamming into the wall like Frelick did(several times) last year, but going back to the wall and jumping or just using it to stop your momentum, that's going to put a lot more stress on a back than catching a ball and occasionally reaching for it. And I also included the throws that put stress on the back. A lot more than bending down to pick a ball in the dirt. As for not knowing if he'll be a good 1B? Yeah, you can say that about anyone at any position. But there's a reason players more to 1B later in their career. It's the easiest position on the field to play...by a pretty wide margin. And I'd say if you can move other players there, good chance you can move a guy who was held in high enough regard to get drafted in the 1st round having played 1B in HS. But sure, maybe he isn't good. I don't think that makes it a "pipe dream." Trading Yelich...that's a pipe dream. Moving him from LF to 1B seems like a logical step as he moves into his mid 30s and the later years of his contract/career.

How would playing 1B be "the worst thing to do for a guy with his back issues?" You're putting a lot more onto your back running up against the wall and coming up and making a throw into 2B or wherever than you are at 1B. I don't understand that logic, nor do I understand the insistence that we'd never move Yelich to 1B. If they gave Braun a 1B glove later in his career, I don't see why they wouldn't try it with a guy who was drafted as a 1B at some point. I don't think most people foresaw Chourio getting extended this soon(hoped, but thought he'd start the year in the minors) and '25 was more likely for a transition...but it's not like when some(one) of us wanted to move Braun to 3B. It's a pretty reasonable suggestion...and I imagine it'll become more obvious if or when you see Chourio, Frelick and then Mitchell, Wiemer or Taylor in the OF together. How about Wilken flies up the prospect lists...and then you just lock him up ala Jackson Chourio? Get another position locked up long term.

I've seen multiple people suggest this, but doesn't Wilken have a 70-arm and move pretty well at 3B? I think Black can handle 3rd and he's good enough, but Wilken SOUNDS like he's got much more upside at 3B defensively. I just think Wilken is very likely a year away. If he makes his debut this year, we got pretty lucky getting him where we did(or we're really bad, but I'm gonna hope it's the prior).

It was a shoulder injury and he was back last year and running. Why would his speed be impacted by that? Also, don't think it was ever the knee that gave Yelich problems(use the same advanced analytics to analyze his '20, '21 ,'22 seasons and you'll see it was more likely the back issues...which will likely continue to flare up making DH or 1B a much better position).

That's fine...this draws more interest to it and people will then go check out the other thread.

I completely agree with the premise and have been wholeheartedly endorsing the John Hart philosophy for a while now. Feels like the Brewers made a mistake not offering Burnes an extension in the last 3+ years(at least). But, along with that, you'd have offered Woody one. To me, this is a numbers game though. If you do this with enough young talent, if a player like Woodruff gets hurt, you can weather that as you have several others at below-market value. It's entirely possible neither pitcher was interested in a deal that left considerable money on the table in exchange for the security(I know people will rely on the Boras relationship with Burnes, but players ultimately make the decision). I think they've been pretty good. The Peralta/Ashby extensions would suggest they made offers early on to the two aces as they signed them to exceptional deals. The key is to keep churning out elite talent. Hopefully, we're celebrating a Quero, Black, Frelick...Wiemer, Mitchell, Wilken, Misiorowski extension in the near future plus whoever is deserving. In the meantime, I'd love to see Uribe and Contreras. Both seem like pretty safe bets. Uribe would be a 7/35 type extension with 2 option years give or take. And using the Murphy extension at 6/73 a year further along, 7/75 makes sense, add a couple options @20 a year with a 5M buyout. 7/80, you have your catcher through age 31 and you can move on if Quero becomes a stud.

It does...but the Tigers got closer IIRC and they weren't gutting elite talent from the farm system, were they? I thought it was just spending, but I could be wrong. Small difference though, very similar feel to it.

Just going by kickers who've struggled this year on competitive teams. Seattle was the first that came to mind. He was also really bad in '21(the year Crosby struggled, he was even worse). The Bills could be another. Both are near the bottom of the league in FG% and poor TB%...though it's always tough to tell with the later if that's by design or an issue with leg strength.

Ok...you can say they're overpaying, but that's still the market. I don't really know which teams are "struggling to pay the bills," other than the Pads who had an owner who was terminally ill and may have spent recklessly because he really wanted to see his team win. Most teams are doing just fine. They set a budget, they don't need loans to meet payroll...they're just fine. And those big market teams know they're going to eat a couple of bad years...and they'll probably get some good years on the first half of the deal. The Yanks don't seem to be regretting the Cole deal at this point(and there's a decent chance he opts out next year with 4/144M remaining). But whatever you think about it...it's not a market the Brewers can reasonably get in which is why they should move on from Burnes now.

The first couple of those are certainly risks...but the bold is the biggest...challenge IMO. The Brewers are nearly lock to at least be in the race for a playoff spot(within ~3-4 games of of the last WC spot given the expanded playoffs). You just went through this with Hader, you said it was a mistake. Don't put yourself in a position to do this again. Then again, I don't really see Hoskins as worth the signing if you trade Burnes. So I'd say if they keep Burnes, then sign Hoskins and if they trade Burnes, then go with the youth movement and a soft reset this next year. I don't think Hader was one of the main reasons. He had a couple blow ups, but they were just bad for a few months. And yes, it was a great trade. It was also terrible optics and the FO has come out and said it was a mistake. So now doing it again with a more important player? I also really disagree that Arnold doesn't care about what fans think about player moves and when they happen. They need fan support, they need to sell tickets. That's their primary source of revenue. I'm not saying he passes up Jackson Holliday and Grayson Rodriguez at the deadline, but I think it's certainly a factor. I think it makes trading him in the off-season preferable to mid-season.

Yes, I really don't like looking backward when talking about the future. I get we haven't had a great 1B since Prince(that's probably the best pure offensive player the franchise has ever developed, so that's an awfully high standard) -BUT, given the makeup of our system, I think it's much more important to try and get promising young arms rather than young corner bats. We've got them in our system. Trust your development and picture what the '25, '26 teams will look like. Who's going to anchor your rotation? COULD be Ashby or Misiorowski. Could be Ashby doesn't regain that 97 MPH sinker and Misi ends up as a HL reliever. Peralta is more like an occasional ace, but a 2/3. I don't think you want to trust him to be the anchor of your rotation. We have several guys to give you innings in Gasser, Rodriguez, and several others who can be 3-4 type pitchers, but we need another high-upside arm or two. Black, Wilken, Boeve with Pratt, Bitonti, and others behind them, I like the hitters we have in those places. If there's one weakness in the system, it's young, starting pitchers. Tiedemann, Harrison...I'd add Painter, Abel or several other arms, but I think it's more likely you get a couple of lower-rated starters or you package Williams and Burnes. And you're selling high on Williams, plus you have Uribe to step into that role. THAT is the best chance to win a WS in the near future rather than half measures and another "bite at the apple" in '24...though, I get the other perspective.

Yeah, but it DIDN'T dump any salary, and it led to Contreras, Payamps and Yeager. And no, they're not going to lose Gasser to the Rule 5 draft next year. He was on top 100 lists this year! LOL...what makes you think they wouldn't add him to the 40-man by the end of NEXT year? He's likely to be on the 40 man this season and play a significant role. Finally, you're upset about not trading Burnes. It's Dec 7th. Ohtani hasn't signed. Would you feel better if they'd have just traded Burnes for the first offer on the table? I'd definitely prefer they trade Burnes as well. I wouldn't be happy with a Soto type package in return. So they've got until the next deadline to trade him. And I'm also going to struggle to get angry if they decide to add to this team and keep him for another year and then get another 1st rd pick and nearly 3M added to their bonus pool.

??? And if they'd have Sold Burnes after his Cy Young year, they'd have gotten MUCH more for him with 4 years remaining than they'll get with 1 year remaining. They ended up getting a pretty good deal for Hader. If THAT is your metric for "selling low," then I think every small market team sells low. You're completely discounting the value of having that player on your team for a playoff run when evaluating "value." And Hader's value was ALWAYS exaggerated by most. The Aroldis Chapman trade was regularly used as a comp despite the fact it was a clear outlier. I would almost guarantee if the Brewers could sign Burnes for 4/100M, they'd do it. He's likely to get 6-7 years and a WHOLE lot more in AAV. I think in order to sign him right now, you'd have to pay FA prices and that'd be more like 7/240. I don't think either of these deals have much impact on the Brewers. The Reds move makes very little sense given the state of their farm system and as noted, the Soto deal was made by a team that was so far out over their skis in terms of payroll, they needed a loan. I'm curious how many teams were even in on the LFer at 33M a year while there was another LHed hitter available that all the big market teams are chasing. The number will inevitably be fewer than teams who are in on an ace for well less than half that price.

I'd say Gasser is more stretched out and has been developed more steadily as a starting pitcher for the Brewers to go that same route. Woody and Burnes were brought up out of necessity, and they were overpowering RHed pitchers on a team that was making a run that ended in a game 7 loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS. Gasser has thrown over 135 the last two years and has been brought along a little slower. RHed pitchers who can throw in the upper 90s on a team that needs innings, but doesn't want to push their starters made Burnes/Woodruff make more sense in that role. I think you could start Gasser out in the rotation and maybe piggy back him with Ashby(it'd work better if they weren't both lefties). Side note, encouraging what Arnold had to say about Ashby being in their plans for the rotation next year. He and Misiorowski are the two guys who I think have the stuff to be dominant starters in '24/'25 respectively.

That seems like a wildly unremarkable return for Soto. I get they got some nice MLB caliber arms and depth, but...man, what they gave up for 1.5 years of Soto vs what they got back? I wonder if Preller was told to go all in given the health of the Pads owner and if that was the driving force...try and do what it takes(and he certainly did, he traded away a young, all-star team and staff for an inflated roster). If only they built like the Brewers...sure, there'd be that Mark A meme, but they'd be in much better position to actually win right now.

Remember when there was talk that Burnes was no longer viewed as an ace? I don't believe that to be the case. Not that I'd expect this back...more expensive next year, last year of FA, but they get the QO and a better pitcher.

Rodgers was at his best when he was throwing in rhythm and getting the ball out quickly...and that was usually the game plan when we had injuries on the OL or to Adams or our top WRers. I agree that is what separates Rodgers from most QBs...and I don't expect Love to become as good as Rodgers, but Love has made some INCREDIBLE throws on the move. Where I think Love has shown the most maturity is when he's climbing up in the pocket and keeping his eyes up(like on the TD to Watson) this last week after stepping up). But he's also made some great throws on the move. It's really hard to compare the two QBs as we've seen this historic, all-time great career that Rodgers has had and we're seeing part of one year of Love. So sure, he's almost certainly not going to be as good...but he's also shown some pretty impressive flashes and made some great throws. Rolling to the right and hitting Toure for that 2-point stands out. There was a play I think vs the Lions he made a throw I hated, but he threw an out for ~8 yards, but the ball probably traveled 40 yards as he was near the right sideline and threw it back across the field.

I missed @adambr2talking about the clock NOT running, but it was confusing. If there's a holding, there's no run-off(which doesn't make sense to me) but for pretty much everything else there are supposed to be. There should have been another run off when MVS went out of bounds. That's ~30 seconds there. Probably makes the DPI that Valentine was absolutely guilty of moot. And as has been mentioned, when you look back and play the ball, your chances of not getting a call go WAY up. Just a rookie who was in perfect position jumping the gun by a split second. Such a huge fan of #37 though.