BrewerFan

Crow I would be fine with. Knoth... I would not. Knoth and Letson(and maybe Dubanawicz) are 3 arms I don't want to trade among those who have not premiered.

LOL... ok, I really like it and BEFORE I saw this, I was hoping they'd end up with a Clay Holmes, Dustin May and then I said O'Brien type return... as LONG as they're not asking for like Adamczeweski, but you said Gausman had stunk it up! But you like May? Ya know... doesn't matter! We got a new starter who had... REALLY good stuff and I THINK he can get back to that ~50% GB rate with that nasty sinker and we got another good BP arm to take the stress of Ashby, so I'm happy!

Ask me after the deadline. The Jays basically flipped Gausman for Soriano... But we need a starter, Gausman has a good Fastball and his 3.51 FIP doesn't really seem like he stunk up the joint. At this point... I'd be very happy with Clay Holmes, Dustin May and an arm like Riley O'Brien. AGAIN though, what are teams going to ask for? Do they expect Adamczewski for one of these guys? I'd hate teo see him in LF just raking.

This is the first "spare parts" deal I've seen... though I may be missing something. I would love to see Clay Holmes. He seems like a REALLY good fit. Heavy GB pitcher, that's always good in Milwaukee. He's been hurt, but not his arm, a broken leg from a comebacker and he was throwing the ball well. All those things could help. I'd still want a reliever and a good one, but... this one is kinda baffling. But again, our #13 and #23 prospects are Ragsdale, .292/.429/698 and a 1.127 OPS with 12 HRs and 31 SBs with 70 speed and our #23 is Frank Cairone who is a unique case, but one above, Coleman Crow, a pitcher we know can throw at the MLB level and Jayden Dubanewicz is #24(and I'm not tossing him into a trade given what we've seen in 2 years from him). Do you not understand what he was attempting to articulate to you? Skubal was the player everyone wanted. HE was the valuable piece. Teams weren't going to go and trade for another starter until they knew if they were getting him... which is why @LouisElysaid "nothing was going to happen until Skubal was traded. And I'd almost guarantee the reason it takes him so long is... just because it doesn't. We ROUTINELY make trades BEFORE everyone else. Adames, Priester, Vaughn...

I loved Soriano, but maybe. That kid is so talented and it's so easy to picture him just sliding in for Turang in a couple years(maybe after playing utility for a year) and handling 2B at very high level. I have seen the Pena and Made were just off limits. I said in another thread(which I articulated poorly) that I think the Brewers system is almost going to hurt them. They have so much depth teams are going to want the top guys or the 2nd guy, another top ~20 guy and then a 30-40 guy. Thing is, most guys in our 15-30 range are top 10-12 in every other system. *I've also seen people suggest that Frias could be a "throw in." To some extent, we've become a victim of our own success with our IFAs.

I don't think that graph tells you much of anything to be honest. If you go off the last 7 starts, he was throwing well and his velo was fine. He was throwing his sinker more. He was throwing the 4 seamer 99 last start and he was throwing his sinker just under 99 at 98.9 and his ERA had been trending back in the right direction. I would guess given his profile, the sinker that is good, a splitter, the "splinker" that's been better this year and getting more movement on, very good slider and a knuckle curve all above average to REALLY good pitches, I'm guessing they just simply didn't want to give up Pena for him and the Jays were willing to offer a top 50 Shortstop prospect who is in AA. Or the Angels may have preferred Nimmala... and then Mitchell is like a Jayden Dubanewicz/Bishop Letson.... in that he was a highly touted HS arm who they went and gave 3rd rd money to last And then a 19-year-old arm who kinda sound like a Freddy Peralta type arm(a lottery ticket). Obviously I could be wrong, but there aren't many pitchers in my opinion who fit exactly what the Brewers are looking for better than Soriano. Strikeouts, Groundballs and he's got some warts that they could fit and help him take another step. I guess not I'm looking at Clay Holmes. He seems like a nice alternative and a high leverage reliever.

It doesn't sound like you and @adambr2are really saying anything that much differently. He's saying he'd trade him for a premier, elite... maybe historic closer(and I do think a reliever is a big need for this team) but not for a lower level player. That's not unreasonable. I've seen people(not on here, the... brilliant minds on X who wanted the Brewers to trade for and then "just sign Skubal to a 2 year extension,") who would trade Made for Skubal. And again, the expectations have gotten SO ridiculous, so out of hand with these young guys, part of it they're doing to themselves.

What makes you think WE passed on him? Not giving up Pena? The Jays gave up a VERY talented and hyper athletic young SS. We'd have had to give up Pena to match that. And his FB velo stabilized in July and he's been better as of late than Detmers. So if you think this is why we passed on Soriano(on top of all the other reasons he's a better fit) I'd imagine we'd "pass" on Detmers as well.

Ok. Is that factoring in the value? So basically if you get Mason Miller and Luis Pena is the top piece, you could live with that, but if you get back... just say Zeferjahn, a guy I want and they give up a guy like Fischer who is hitting 30 HRs, getting on base at a 400 clip, that's upset you? Or are you just saying player for player? Because I understand the later, I just don't agree(but feel the same way about Payne) but I totally get the prior. Svuem posted something about Minor Leaguers who struck out at the rate he has and... met a couple criteria and it's made me nervous with Fischer. ON Pena, not to go off on a tangent, but the Brewers FO saying Made and Pena are off-limits and Pena's 60 grade hit, hit 70 grade speed and then his ability at SS, which isn't great, but it's good(suggesting he could be a .300 hitter who walks and steals a lot of bags at 2B)... that's pushing the value of Pena up. But I agree, he's lost some value. How much of that is just us being insanely spoiled though? A 19-year-old isn't crushing it in HiA and dealt with some issue. That's pretty minor(but again, that part I totally get).

What would you have offered? Just hypothetically, lets say they wanted that athletic SS AND lets say they'd have included Zeferjahn. Would you have started with Pena? I feel like Made, Pena(and Payne) are non-starters for me, but, curious what others think.

The only prospect we could have offered that was better was Pena(and Braylon Payne, but that's my opinion and not yet bared out by the industries prospect rankings). Maybe Jett Williams, but Nimalla is a different type of athlete. Well that pisses me off. This isn't information you could have provided like TEN MINUTES AGO ADAM!!! Just let me build my whole argument for Soriano and then RIIIIIGHT as I hit send make sure you slllide in there and say, 'Soriano is traded.' 😁 Doesn't matter, Reid Detmers is a better pitcher (I really hope he ends up being better... and a Brewer... with Zeferjahn).

But he's not. He isn't this year, and he hasn't been over the course of his career. https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/baseball/versus-finder.fcgi?player_id2=sorian003jos&player_id1=detmer000rei&request=1&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=detmere01&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=br The bigger question to me isn't just who's been better. It's which pitcher is more likely to improve in Milwaukee. Soriano is a power right-hander with a 96-99 mph sinker, an upper-90s four-seamer, a knuckle curve, slider and splitter. The four-seamer is easily his weakest pitch, and he throws it too often. That also happens to be exactly the kind of thing the Brewers have shown they'll address. They had Aaron Ashby all but scrap his four-seamer in favor of his sinker. I could easily see them doing something similar with Soriano. As for the idea that his stuff isn't good or is trending down, I don't see the evidence. His velocity has actually ticked up over his last seven starts. His secondary pitches are absolutely filthy. The knuckle curve has held hitters to a .190 average (.200 xBA) with a .243 wOBA (.257 xwOBA), while generating a 46.1% whiff rate, a 43.0% strikeout rate, a +7 Run Value and 1.4 Run Value per 100 pitches. His splitter has been just as dominant: a .189 average allowed (.220 xBA), a microscopic .212 wOBA (.248 xwOBA), a 39.0% whiff rate and a 30.0% strikeout rate. It also produces exactly the kind of contact you want with a 53% ground-ball rate, compared to just a 22% fly-ball rate. Now take that pitcher, move him from one of the worst defensive infields in baseball to arguably one of the best, and ask yourself which direction his results are likely to go. I think the Brewers could reduce the usage of his one bad pitch, lean into his elite sinker and secondaries, and let one of baseball's best defenses convert all those ground balls into outs. Now compare that to Detmers. He's a softer-throwing lefty who, despite having a nice season, has been objectively worse over the course of his career. He was moved to the bullpen last year, and this season he's still a much more fly-ball-oriented pitcher, with a 30.2% fly-ball rate, a 24.9% line-drive rate and only a 36% ground-ball rate. If we're only looking at recent performance, let's use June 20 as the cutoff. Detmers: 4.89 ERA, 4.61 FIP. Soriano: 3.95 ERA, 3.41 FIP. So I'm honestly not sure how Soriano is the one who "looks like he's fading." Yes, Soriano walks more hitters. That's a legitimate concern. But both pitchers have elevated walk rates, and Soriano's numbers were inflated by two starts where he issued seven and eight walks. Those outings count, obviously, but they also skew the overall picture. Detmers is probably having the best season of his career, and I'd still argue Soriano is the better pitcher with the higher ceiling. Give me the guy with elite swing-and-miss secondary pitches whose biggest flaw is overusing one bad fastball—a flaw the Brewers have repeatedly shown they're capable of fixing—over the guy whose breakout season has still been worth roughly one fewer WAR while giving up considerably more fly balls and home runs. To be clear, I like Detmers. I was probably one of the first people on this forum suggesting him as a trade target earlier this season because I thought another left-handed starter made sense. But if I'm choosing between the two, especially for Milwaukee, I'm taking Soriano. I think his arsenal, batted-ball profile and the Brewers' track record of pitch design make him the better bet going forward. The Angels have probably been the 2nd worst run organization in sports... only behind the Rockies and that's because of Ohtani and Trout, BUT, they do have a new GM. John Mozeliak was the GM in St Louis for about a decade and won them a WS. So I wouldn't count on the same old Angels this year. If I'm the Brewers, I'd be fine with a substantial offer, but I'd also want Zeferjahn's involved. Get that guy who can be a Counter balance to Ashby and a bridge to Megill and Uribe. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-zeferjahn-666171?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb THIS is the type of deal I'd give up an Bishop Letson, Adamczewski, Quero and then... maybe thye want Brock Wilken? I'd settle for Luke Adams.

I haven't seen it much, but BA said it was back. The pop time at least... the problem was his accuracy hasn't come all the way back. I don't know if that's true. A pop time is a pop time though, so it'd make sense. We'd really have to prioritize catcher moving forward and Contreras would almost certainly be back and then extended a QO(not the worst outcome if you're trading for a guy like Soriano anyway). I think that's.... not NEARLY enough. The guy has Ace type stuff, there's zero doubt about that. Now, in fairness, a lot of pitchers do, many don't harnass it. A lot of Jacob Misiorowski's(there's actually not a lot, but take 3-4 MPH off their FB) end up failed relievers. Megill was on his way to being one of them. But Soriano has an ERA in the low 3s as a pitcher who is... I believe in the 90th percentile as a GB pitcher, throwing in front of a poor Angels defense one that's among the worst in the league on the dirtvs the Brewers, an elite defenseive team. Sorriano is a massive upgrade and SHOULD cost more than Skubal given you have him for 2 more seasons after this one. Detmers is nice. I actually suggested him as a trade option probably before anyone on here. Maybe a month into the season when he was moved back into the rotation, he was throwing pretty well and it looked like he was still undervalued. But suggesting Soriano, the guy who'd slot it almost perfectly as our #3 behind Harrison... is worth Quero and Carlos Rodriguez or another player we won't even play on the MLB team, what possible reason woul d the Angles have to make this move?

It's really not magically, they've had plenty of pitchers hurt in the post-season. And Snell couldn't have had the surgery because he didn't know about it. He thought he was just dealing with a dead arm due to pitching a lot down the stretch/post-season and when he tried to ramp up,he had trouble, they did an MRI and found the foreign bodies. That's... a pretty significant thing. I think suggesting they(LAD) timed that so that he wouldn't have to pitch during the year is... kinda silly. They could say he had a grown strain or back soreness or a dead arm if they wanted to just make something up. If you want to talk about the current economic system, we're in total agreement... but that's not this. This is just... common practice during the season.

No, you're not missing anything. This is why we're looking ahead to guys like Luke Adams or Brock Wilken and hose are some of the guys it seems most obvious for the Brewers to trade. It's just roster management. I don't... really know what you'd do differently. You want to make a decision about injuries up to a council or something? And how do you quantify shoulder soreness? What's Woody on the IL for right now technically? "Right Shoulder Inflammation." I don't think they do anything different than us.

But the Brewers do do it. And I assume you meant... when they return, they have to be activated OR be DFAed or they can send a guy down. I think Stone and Miller have options left(though I could be wrong). Lets also keep in mind... the Dodgers sign older players and some of those guys are more injury prone. Snell and Glasnow were healthy at the end of the year, but the Dodgers buy so many arms but they're also willing to take risks on guys who have injury issues.

Sorry, but so what? You add a guy to the 60 day if he's not going to be back within 60 days. Will Smith? That was an obvious move. He had Snell has surgery on his elbow. Glasnow has been out for 3 months(roughly) with back issues. Bobby Miller, a guy with massive upside has been injured for a whlie with a shoulder. Gavin Stone, another former top prospect, shoulder. Graterol had back and shoulder surgeries. Cousins is coming back from TJ. Ben Casparius... don't know who that is, but shoulder inflammation. We put Lockridge on the 60 day, Quinn Priester, Brandon Woodruff. Rob Zastryzny, Brian Fitzpatrick, Angel Zerpa, they've all been on the 60 day. I don't know what you want done about this, but 60 days means you can't come back for 60 days. There's no reason why a player who's been out for 40 days and is scheduled to ramp up and go on a rehab assignment shouldn't be allowed to go on the 60 day DL.

Ok, fair enough. The difference to me was the velo. I just don't trust guys who throw a below average Fastball even if they have a great changeup.

Luis Lara could not have made him more redundant. A switch hitting CFer whois faster than Perkins, a better hitter and it remains to be seen how he is in CF, but we have a lot of CFers. Codi Heuer though, this is the type of trade I LOVE. He is capable of running it up there in the upper 90s, he's got a 65 grade slider, great spin rates and then a change that I don't know how good it is. You gave up so little... IMO. Codi Heuer might just as likely end up going the way of Payamps, but MAYBE the Brewers saw something the Guardians didn't? I know we're talking about two of the best at developing pitching, but... it also takes guys a little while to click. So, ground ball pitcher, great slider and good FB velo. That alone makes this trade worth it for me. Megill has, at most, one year left. Maybe(long shot) he steps in as the SU man or 7th inning man.

Just right off the top, Kerkering can run it up there at 98-100. I'd guess his average is in the 97s, but that's different than Yoho. Are you just comparing kinda good but not great relievers or guys with a similar profile? Because I'd love to add him to our team, but Yoho... never felt comfortable with him. Devin Williams with that Change, always made me nervous.

Well... I guess I read it differently then as you had us cutting 4 newly acquired players or players who we made more expensive to unload next off-season(though the Banks move was just stupid, I do hope he proves them right). As for Vita Vea... I'd make it work if he was 28-years-old. I'd sign him and give him a top of the market deal. I think outside CB, that'd be probably the best thing we could do for this team. I think it's also pretty obvious looking at other teams, the overall spending, NFL teams know the Cap is going to go up a lot. If it's incrementally until they opt out of the TV deal and get 3-4X as much or if they re-negotiate it earlier, it's going to jump up in the next few years.

That's a stat that... I think can tell you whatever you want it to. The way you use these challenges and some of the places they've been used, they can change innings. I don't believe the gap from best to worst isn't worth a run. A 1-1 pitch called a ball that you challenge and win completely changes that at bat. That's just one hypothetical, but... these stats are too new and I think lose a bit of value when you throw them together all in one equation. There have been some challenges that I've thought have changed innings for us. When a pitcher was about to fall behind 2-1 and we won a challenge. Also, a lack of challenges by Turang that has been a bit frustrating, but that's another subject. That's all though, I don't have a strong opinion on how teams are viewing catchers and their ABS challenging this year because it's too new and catchers need to get into a rhythm or get acclimated, but I think the impact is much bigger than this stat is inferring.

No, I'd rather keep him as well. He's not a great player(obviously) but as a RHed hitter off the bench with some power, he's not bad. That, combined with the market as a whole, you're almost certainly getting worse -at that position- if you get rid of Sanchez. But we'll see. I'm a little skeptical this is going to have a huge impact on any other deals.

It IS better than an Albert Haynesworth situation... "showed up in terrible shape!" I'm still holding out hope for Lloyd. If he can stay on the field... given everything they've said about him when he's played. Hopefully Madison has helped him and he's gotten the bad luck out of the way. He wouldn't be the first player to struggle with injuries and then still have a nice career. I'm not counting on it and I hope we don't either, but... hopefully this is in a different shade come January.

No, they don't. They'll likely cut Jacobs because they were always likely to cut Jacobs. They weren't going to pay a RB 17M. McKinney will likely get extended. They just gave Franklin free money when he was already signed just to cut him next year and they restructured Banks so they could spend more on HIM the following year as well? The Packers aren't even stressing their salary cap right now. If they want to create money(assuming the cap doesn't "surprise" people for the 19th non covid related year in a row) they have plenty of revenues to do so. I don't know how you have them cutting Hargrave before you even see him play a single snap back under Gannon in Green Bay. That's... more than a bit premature. Also, keep in mind OvertheCap projected the cap number to be 285M this year. It's 301. It's constantly lower, then goes higher. It's going much higher in the future. The Packers are in fine financial shape. They didn't restructure Banks just to cut him in another year. I think they should if he plays poorly, but you have these moves coming irrespective of performance. Franklin, they added more money. You think they don't have an idea of their future cap situation? Jacobs probably gone(he should be). McKinney will get restructured, maybe extended. Love will probably be restructured. We'll cut some players but I'd bet money we're more likely to be aggressive next year in Free Agency than be cutting 4-5 starters who they just acquired.