BrewerFan

Yes... it would. The US Navy would be decimated by a War with China fought off the coast of China. I didn't say they'd lose... but they sure as hell don't "win" much there. It's about who is losing more. U.S.-based war-game analyses show... their air craft carries in particular would be vulnerable... again, OFF THE COAST of China. This would leave the US Navy a shell of what is currently is. And it's not the US Navy vs the Chinese Navy of the tonnage of the ships, it's the US Navy taking strikes from Mainland China. We're not fighting China's Navy in equal footing here. Chinese Supersonic missiles being lobbed at our aircraft carriers would be... devastating. It'd be devastating for China as well, but to say it wouldn't be for the US Navy??? How? That doesn't mean the US would lose the War, it means it may win it at an ENORMOUSLY high cost that would leave our armed forces... in VERY rough shape. Xi isn't Putin. China's not Russia. China is disciplined and they have a long term plan. This "if they attack Taiwan," has been going on forever. They're not going into Taiwan... BUT, again, if they do, it'd be absolutely devastating to all sides, the US Markets. It wouldn't seriously hurt the economy, it would destroy it. If we agree that AI is propping up our Economy... then... what happens when you lose VIRTUALLY all of your access to the very thing that's propping up said economy? Ok... well, I guess it just seemed a bit cavalier. Stubbing my toe is seriously painful... I'd say having to get my leg amputated on a table like they did in the Civil War... while also being "seriously painful" is on a whole other level.

I hope so. It's early, but it's a REALLY fun team to watch. They play hard, aggressive and they can shoot it. Kuzma is... difficult to watch and Turner hasn't really found his footing on offense, but he will. But it's so nice seeing Rollins play. AJ Green also signed a contract that... I think is going to look really good the next 4 years. Couldn't really ask for too much more than what we're getting right now.

What? No. Nobody said your loyalty to your family should be transactional... but no, we're talking about more than Baseball. We're talking about players signing contracts. Adames "loyalty" should be to... his family. He SHOULD be taking the largest contract on the table(or at least within reason) to take care of his family for generations. I don't know how we came away with a transactional approach to Family from that.

Ok... sure, I'd rather win 3 more challenges and challenge 20 more times, but these supposes those lost challenges don't result in losing a challenge for a more important call in a game. If I'm 30% sure on an IF hit on a 3rd out in the 2nd inning, I'm not using a challenge just because... maybe we'll get it. I just don't see how you come to the conclusion the article did when you are omitting so many facts. This is an area the Brewers were bad at and they have to get better at? Based on what? Your hypothetical, sure, again, I'd agree with that, but I reject that they were bad because they didn't challenge a lot but were very successful when they did.

A War with China over Taiwan would... absolutely devastate BOTH economies, the Global economy... the Chinese Navy. The US Navy would be in trouble. I'm not sure if you're being a little facetious when you say it'll "hurt" the economy, but it'd make any previous market crash look tame IF that happened. I don't think China's ready to just obliterate it's own economy and military to change the status quo. They've been saber rattling for a long time... but taking Taiwan would be absolutely devastating. China's not stupid. They'll keep doing their war games... I don't think they're going to take Taiwan for TSMC when TSMC has already said... they'll just destroy their fabs rather than risk losing them to China. Also, I think when people are saying the "Economy is doing good/bad," it's important we're on the same page. The Economy sucks for people looking for a job or people trying to buy homes or... really the things that have a practical impact on most people's lives. The Stock Market is doing great. I haven't done a great job of articulating the two, but the market is great... the rest... not so much.

I'm certainly not touting the strength of the Economy as a whole. I think I went through all the troubling things happening. From hard data from defaults from Car loans at a ~15 year high or Credit Card defaults, employment numbers, CPI... 3 is the new 2 I guess. But I don't think the spending on AI is going anywhere. I think we're just scratching the surface of it. There's always companies that get overvalued before they go public. Private valuations don't mean much to me. But you just listen to what the largest companies in the world are saying, they're all spending more on GPUs than anticipated. We're also seeing more and more sovereign AI investments. South Korea just committed to a massive new investment. The UK, EU, Japan, India...

I did... he says the exact opposite to Curt Hogg... of the JSO. https://reviewingthebrew.com/posts/brewers-william-contreras-reportedly-open-to-extension-talks?utm_source=chatgpt.com I've seen you say he said that. I've never seen anyone report that he said that. Trying to parse out what he ACTUALLY means vs what he says is... I'm not doing that. Burnes was pretty clear. He said the Brewers couldn't afford him(we knew that). Contreras on the other hand... has literally said he wants to loves it here and he wants to spend his entire career here. So I don't know where this "Contreras has said he's not open to an extension," talk is coming from and saying basically 'go look it up,' isn't really telling me much. Neither is 'what he REALLY meant was....' I would assume he wanted to be paid well. I assume that with... every player. I'm not sure why Contrearas in particular is someone who we keep saying "isn't open to a contract extension." https://www.si.com/mlb/brewers/onsi/news-feed/williams-contreras-shares-stance-on-future-with-brewers-pat3 Now if you want to say that's just player speak or... whatever, fine. I didn't say we were going to sign Contreras. I'm just questioning this narrative that he said he WASN'T open to it.

I'm not being coy, you're comparing a top of the market free agent extension... for a guy coming off a World Series MVP with a pre-arbitration contract. 30M for Super 2 and arbitration is... extremely... optimistic(or maybe pessimistic is more appropriate as if he's only getting 30M, it'd be a bit disappointing) Every contract is a gamble. Literally every one. Jesus Made is a gamble(this also isn't a choice between Made and Misiorowski). Of course there's more risk with pitchers, does that mean you just don't ever sign an extension? We'll see how it plays out. They were interested earlier this year, I personally hope they can come to an agreement as I think he's going to be a TOR arm for several years.

Better numbers in a career year at 32 and a DH only. One's coming off their best year, the other their worst year since becoming a full time starter. He also has won a GG in RF. He'd probably play LF in Milwaukee(in this... hypothetical) and his Base Running Value has been... better than Turang for some context. He's really about as well rounded a player as you see in Free Agency save for a couple... pretty extreme outliers. https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=tucker001kyl&player_id1=schwar001kyl&request=1&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=schwaky01&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=br But, if we're accounting for contract... both are probably out of the Brewers price range, but Tucker definitely is. The issue is... you'd have to move Yelich back to the OF and you'd have 50M+ invested in 33, 34 year old LHed DHs. I think Tucker ends up in LA because... why not, they didn't sweep this years WS and may actually lose. Schwarber ends up in Philly... probably, but I just hope this isn't the Cubs chance to rectify their mistake in non-tendering him.

I mean... it has the characteristics of a trap game, but the talent gap is so big here, if they don't dominate this game, there's an issue. Panthers have a couple nice OL, a young WR, Young's a smart and accurate QB, but below average. And the defense is not impressive. This SHOULD be a 42-17 type game. Maybe they keep it close early but the Panthers are not on the Packers level.

In fairness... I don't think anyone here would have said signing Donald or Jones would have been smart. I'll admit, I thought McCarthy would be a near lock in that system. He's athletic, great arm, accurate, can make all the throws and he seemed to be a great leader. Add that to a system in which QBs seems to thrive and... I thought it was smart to move on and go with him this year. Sometimes it's SOO nice to be wrong(at least so far)!

Yeah, they said they were giving him time and then... wanted him to get back in shape. Now it's just... inactive. That's wild to me. He was so clearly still an elite cover corner last year, he just wasn't able to stay healthy. While talking about former Packers CBs playing well...Eric Stokes has been playing well.... in coverage. Specifically Man Coverage. Also... kinda wish the Packers had jumped on the Ronald McCreary trade that the Titans just made.

I don't think this is a bubble... We saw it yesterday with META, MSFT and GOOGL all increasing their AI CapEx, you have these massive new deals popping up constantly. I think as the market caps grow, their valuation will start to come down, but AI CapEx is already going to be about 120B bigger next year to the ~480B with conservative estimates having it grow to 1T by 2030. I don't see a world in which AI becomes a "nothingburger." FSD, Automation, just two area's in which AI could/should have a massive-massive impact on the economy. This fear has come with every new revolutionary innovation. The internet, assembly line, etc... They've all created more jobs. Not entirely sure how AI does that, but...I suppose that's the point.

I think you're right. We can have short memories. Last year Turang has a .688 OPS. I would expect Ortiz to be closer to the '24 version. He gets his BB% back over 10 and his BABIP closer to .300(which is hardly a stretch) vs the .260 he had and I think he's capable of a .750 OPS, but should be at least .700. That's just fine given we have SS's coming up and he should be the "weak" hold in our lineup and plays great defense. If he has a bad first 3 months... we'll have to switch it up and do something different. I do think Turang can be at SS with his shoulder. A dead arm is just something that most players deal with. This was publicized because he was on pace to be the starting SS and it changed the outcome. But he was an outstanding SS and the plan was for him to be SS. Those are all logical... but expensive. Nobody else thinks another BP arm could help? Kyle Finnegan- RHP, mid to upper90s velo still, big GB pitcher. I'd like him in that Mears spot or to push Mears back a slot/keep the BP fresh. Caleb Ferguson-LHP -If you want to move Ashby to the rotation... which I'm all in favor of, another lefty who.. also gets a lot of GBs, limits hard contact, that could be a big addition. I don't think either will be too expensive. Walker Buehler is another guy I'd take a flier on. He was so nasty just a couple years ago, he should be cheap... but he's not exactly a big upgrade. If we're going to go with guys like Misiorowski, Patrick, Ashby... Gasser, we're going to need some length. Finnegan is one guy I'd really like to add. 2/12 would be reasonable(though I suspect he'll get more as well).

Are you accounting for the... massive difference in salary or just straight up? If it's just as a player, Tucker would be almost a perfect fit. He's probably a GG caliber LFer(or a really good one when healthy), speed, takes walks, power. He's great on the bases. He was banged up this year, but he's a stud. And if you could... in some world afford him, he should age well. If you're saying you'd take Schwarber because he'll only get 4, maybe 5 years at ~30M vs 10 years at ~40M, then I'd agree.

I mean... it depends on the context. Your loyalty should be to your Family and those who depend on your first and foremost. Loyalty as a player, I think Adames and Woodruff and those guys, they have shown "loyalty." But... it's always a balance. As for Counsell... I don't even know that it was about the money. If it was, he'd have given the Brewers the opportunity to match. That was how they left it.... and he didn't. So he may have thought it'd be easier to win with another 100M in payroll. Which is funny since the Cubs aren't run as well and this was their big move. Kyle Tucker... and they could EASILY afford to pay him... and they won't. So whatever his reasons, I don't care... I'll take Murph! (I am a bit leery about Weeks taking over, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there).

I'm not sure what context to use this in. Strasburg was an elite starter over the time frame an extension would cover Misiorowski. First ~10 years he had an FIP under 3.00 and led the Nats to a WS Title... won WS MVP and twice out-dueled Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. If you're talking about the extension he signed AFTER that... I'd ask... why? The question isn't should we give Misiorowski a 7 year 250M extension that will pay him until he's 38(and actually... much longer as he's getting deferred money for years after). It's should we sign him to an extension that would cover pretty much the same exact time frame Strasburg was a dominant pitcher for the Nationals.

It's always easy to turn down money on someone else's behalf! IF... I was blessed with the talent to throw a ball like Woodruff or hit one well enough that I was in demand, even as a diehard Brewers fan, I'm not passing up generational money to be loyal. Now I wouldn't be like Counsell. If I was locked into making 5.5 for pretty much the next decade or so(basically as long as I wanted to keep managing) I think I'd have turned down that money. But if you're talking about a limited amount of time to make money... like an athlete, I'm not taking 1/20 when 3/75 is on the table. I'm not that loyal to people I don't know!

Same here. I think the relationship was... a little irrationally harmed with Burnes during the Covid thing, but Woody has just seemed like a team 1st guy and I liked all of them, but Woody was my favorite. He was also somehow underrated. Burnes was "the ace" but I trusted Woodruff as much as him. I'd definitely extend the QO and he'll probably turn it down, he'll probably leave, but I think there's a small chance they work something out. I don't think this is an Adames situation where we love him, he wants to be here, we want him here, we just know it's not feasible(I actually believe most players when they say that... most people would rather stay in the same city with their teammates IF all things are equal). I think we're in a good spot either way, but I think Woodruff is going to put together a really good year next year and continue to regain some velo. I don't think he'll be able to sit in that 98 range, but I think he'll be able to get back to where he can sit 94-96 and touch 98 every once in a while.

That's just insane to me. To me that ball looks like it's got good movement also. A bit of a natural sinker, but just so clean... the velo is already there so you just put him on a strength and conditioning program and a good nutrition program and who knows. Maybe he ends up in our rotation in 2031. Well... yeah, I can guess at the potential reasons, I was just... curious if someone knew. I really wouldn't think Visa's would be one. You don't even need the visa to sign. Just sign, they don't come stateside for a year or 2 normally. And which point, you're a professional athlete, so you should be able to get one.

I'd be fine taking a chance on him to play CF or 3B. I thought his issue was as much with his arm(erratic) than his range at SS, but this is a guy who will have that breakout season at some point. He'll hit 35-40 HRs and just carry a team... I would think. Maybe not, maybe I'm wrong, but he just hits the ball SO hard and he walks. This seems like a bit of a wild idea when looking at actual performance and it seemed like it during the season, but... this are the types of players you take a chance on. The potential return is just massive. I thought he'd signed an extension... but I must have been confusing him with their 3B. Still, dude hits piss missiles, walks and there's WAY too much athletic ability there for him to not turn into a good CFer with more time, so even if they don't believe in his ability at 3B, he only moved to CF last year. The question is, what are you giving up? I have just no idea where you'd start and if I was the Pirates, I would hold onto him until he has that breakout(but that's the same reason I'm on board with trading for him). I would think it'd cost. Luke Adams+ a guy like Tyson Hardin? I don't like giving up either of those players, but I don't like trading any prospects and I may be way off. The ONE area I'd disagree with; I don't know this is true. They'll have Skenes, Jared Jones back, Bubba Chandler, they have a Hunter Blanco, Mike Burrows and Keller to round out their rotation. That's a really good 1-3. Really elite stuff. So the pitching should be good. Offensively there are some holes, but Byran Reynolds is a good player(terrible start to the year). Cruz has that upside. They have some bats and I don't have any confidence in them trying to really address that, but I think they'll be a .500+ team next year. They'll need everything to go right, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the same position the Reds were this year(they should also have very good SPing).

And this is because they were successful TOO often and didn't challenge more plays because; So basically, if they'd have challenged some more plays and lost it, they'd have been in that 60- 66.5% range we've... deemed ideal and even if they'd have lost them, that would mean they did scrap and they WERE good enough. But too high of a pct means... they weren't good enough? This really feels like we're searching for something at this point. ....

Yes, walks inflate the OPS as they help that OBP. And that IS something that carries to the Majors. If you have great bat control, and can draw walks, that carries. I have to say, I really don't consider arm reach outside of the NFL draft. I'd rather have a guy like Pete Crow-Armstrong, even if his arm reach is about 30 feet shot of robbing those HRs. Now... clearly there's some hyperbole as he's no PCA, but he's also VERY fast, athletic and hell, he could be our SS this year as likely as our CFer. He could play SS, then move to the OF later in games for defensive purposes. I'm not even pushing for Jett, I just think your argument is deeply flawed. Talking about the 3-4 plays a year AT BEST you may rob a HF? Also, yes, I would take another Frelick type defender out there. He's been outstanding. Williams is a Frelick type player but younger when they hit AA with more upside. I'll also add... I don't buy the whole "Big market prospect inflation," thing anymore. Not since 2015 or so. Scouts are too good at this and look at the top 10-20 right now. It's dominated by small markets. You're not just thrown into the top 10 because you are a NYY, NYM, LAD prospect. These rankins are MUCH better than they were in the... I don't know, Jacoby Ellsbury days. Jett Williams is Sal Frelick with better speed who can play SS/2B and CF. I also don't think Stearns and Arnold will come to a deal as they're looking for the same things. You want to give up Peralta and something more significant for McClean, fine... but Stearns isn't doing that(maybe if Cohen is really pushing but unlikely even then). So as I've said, TRY and find the guy who is going to break out like McClean NEXT year and then go for it. The Abel type prospects. Abel or Painter were the guys I wanted for Corbin Burnes. By the time they become the obvious pitching target everyone wants, why would their team trade them?

Yeah... his value is lower than Baty's was. He's 27. He hasn't been able to stay on the field for 70 games in any year for the Brewers or in the minor league seasons before that. He strikes out over 33% of the time. As of now we have team control over a guy who... by every single indication is trending toward being non-tendered before he reaches FA, but you want an extra year or two for when he's 31 years old? Why? It's been his ENTIRE professional career. He's got dealt a bad hand, but he's not capable of staying healthy. I mean... sorry, that's just... what it is. Paying almost anything but the minimum would be paying a premium. I think there's a good chance we'll have a couple rookies playing in the OF at some point next year. Maybe Luke Adams or Luis Lara or just Chourio, Frelick, Collins with Perk as the #4. I don't know, but... I see very little upside and I'm not risk adverse. I want Misiorowski signed. Others don't. I get it. But I don't thnk anyone can say they don't see the CLEAR upside at this point. Or Turang, Frelick, even relievers, Uribe... he turns into an elite closer and he's a guy who signed for 10K, you can likely get him much cheaper right now. 7 years/30M and a TO. IDK, I'm just not able to see it with Mitchell. He seems like a good dude. He looks like the type of player who could have developed into a star if... he'd just had better luck. But he hasn't. He's had injury issues, he's had health issues that exacerbate those injury issues. He's also had performance issues. I like the guy. I hope he earns a massive raise next year in arbitration, but he is the last guy I would extend on this team.

1-I don't think Turang is looking at 150M with 4 years of team control left. Ketel Marte... who has probably been a bit better got a 6 year 116.5M GTD deal with a contract already in place for the last 4 years. So I'm not sure Turang can expect a whole lot more. 2-Perez? Catcher? Dinges do you mean or... are we talking about someone else? No, he's repeatedly said he was open to a contract extension...especially heading into 2024. This version that he wasn't interested does get repeated over and over, but that's not what Hogg reported. I think the last thing he said was something BASICALLY along the lines of "I'm content to go year to year." I mean, if you're not offered a long term contract... that's pretty much the most passive thing to say. But he's been rather vociferous in his praise of the Brewers and the city of Milwaukee and how much he'd like to spend time here. I do think that's a deal you probably had to do at last a year ago and I get why they didn't do it with Quero, Dinges and... maybe some Perez guy. Chances are we've got a guy named Perez in our system who has caught! How much risk is there? They have a TJ, you lose them a year. You sign away 8 years of service time 6 years+TOs), you're getting what are likely the healthiest and prime years and you're not in a situation like Skubal is right now where the Tigers and Skubal are 200 MILLION apart after the Tigers offer 250M for an extension. Misiorowski has proven he's THAT type of arm. I think there's more risk in inaction than action sometimes. I'd be 100% on board for a Chourio type extension for Misiorowski. Same with Made after that. In a world in which 2027 isn't in danger, I'd sign him to a deal that gave the Brewers 10 years of team control. You're getting those players at a discount. Otherwise, what we invariably do is wait, they break out, then we say, "the Brewers can't afford to sign players like him." And then we'll spend the final 3 years of his contract debating who we should trade him to, we'll exaggerate the returns(I still remember the Jackson Holliday+Grayson Rodriguez+ posts for Burnes on here). That's an interesting thought, but I think with the WHOLE list of guys, Fischer, Burke, Adams, Wilken, Boeve... I feel like I'm forgetting someone, but we've got so many players who should be ready in 2028. You could give Vaughn a 3 year 36 deal. That seems like a lot for half a season. Maybe 3/30 I'd feel better about, but I think really like Burke, but all of them should draw a lot of walks and hit for power. I could certainly be wrong there. I'm also perfectly happy to give a reliever an extension. Abner Uribe? 7 years/30M and a couple TOs.