BrewerFan

He had ONE year. His career line before last year at 30 with Detroit is .220/.285/.357 and an OPS of .643. Comparing an everyday players WAR to a Closers is... kinda silly. Josh Hader had ONE year with a WAR over 2.8. Closers have lower WAR's. Get into Oct and see who's more important, a high leverage reliever or hoping that at 31 years old a utility man can replicate the one above average season he's had? Or... just don't trade him! We brought him in because he had such a big arm. He hadn't had much success. He's thrown VERY well for the Brewers. Progressively better. Now for... really no discernible reason, in a year in which we're trying to build off a 97 win season and an NLCS appearance, we're going to trade him? I don't understand that.

Baltimore is not going to trade Basallo for Freddy Peralta. I don't like to speak in absolutes... but they're absolutely NOT trading the guy they just signed to an 8 year extension with an additional team option at 20 years old... and then turn around and trade him for a rental. His comp is Yordan Alvarez... but at catcher. Would you make that trade if it was the Brewers? Would you trade... Jesus Made for one year of Freddy Peralta? That's roughly what you'd be asking of the O's. Made may have more upside(may) but Basallo is under team control through 2035.

Yeah, and again, not just Woodruff. Priester starts the season with the Brewers, Misiorowski will be there all year, Gasser, Henderson... the whole staff is back save for Quintana and you have several young arms who they don't have room for. They'll be in AAA getting work and ready to step in at any point in time. I don't know how you look at this team and think 'no chance they'll be as good next year.' I can't say they'll win 97 games. We have no idea what'll happen next year with injuries or who'll have a break out season. Pretty hard to look at Misiorowski and how he finished up the year and think HE won't have a huge impact. Even if we were looking at 2027, I'd say I think we'll be pretty damn good, but I could see the argument. We lost Burnes. Won more games. We lost Adames. Won more games. We win 97 games, we lose NOBODY, we have several young, talented players=No way we'll be able to replicate their 97 win season??? Ok.

Please explain how you arrive at this conclusion? SPing We lose-Quintana We gain- A full year of Misiorowski, Woodruff(or at least 100 more IP). Priester for the whole year. Patrick won't be a rookie, Myers was much better when he came back. Gasser, again, healthy and should be available all of next year. Logan Henderson. That's on top of Peralta. BP-Unless we actually trade someone, again, everyone we want is back. Megill, Uribe, Ashby, Koenig, Hall, Mears, Anderson, Zastryzny... and then a slew of arms in AA and AAA. Wichrowski may be able to step in and contribute or maybe not. But I'm going go guess between he, Crow, Hardin, Hunt...Yoho, Bukauskas(I wouldn't count on him to replace a high leverage arm, but I wouldn't dismiss him). So.... we lose absolutely nothing, but we should be BETTER across the board. IF-We bring back EVERYONE. We bring back the 1B who had a great 60 games with the Brewers, but we get him the WHOLE year. We also have Adams, Wilken in AA who were dominant in AA... which is 1 step away from the Big League team. Throw in Black, Boeve, Burke, Fischer... any of whom could potentially step in and help at 1B if Vaughn doesn't play well. OF-Again, literally EVERYONE back. Chourio at 22... probably hasn't peaked(don't think I'm going out on a ledge here). Collins was a rookie... and despite the perception he struggled in the 2nd half, he had an .818 OPS. C-You have Contreras and Quero. So I'm just... desperately trying to figure out the logic that suggests we're going to be WORSE next year. How there is "no way" they come close to their 2025 production?

.... get a hobby dude.

AGAIN, when you wrote this; You really lacked any self awareness, didn't you? Why are you even tagging me on this? Have I EVER argued otherwise? I've said I don't think you can trust Mitchell. Sadly, he's got diabetes and that impacts his ability to recover from injuries. I just don't feel the need to force it into EVERY conversation or reply to EVERYONE who lists Mitchell among our OFers "Mitchell will be hurt by April."

Ok... well, I'M the one who made the argument that he threw in the 7th OR earlier. I'm obviously not going to limit that to the 6th or earlier, though he did have 11 appearances in the 6th inning... and given he filled in for Megill the last ~6 weeks of the season, I feel like 1/3rd of his innings in the 7th or earlier, 11 outings in the 6th or earlier makes my point. Either way, your OWN argument here is effectively the same as mine without using the term "piegon hole." He can come in and get out right handers in the 7th when there are good lefties due up in the 8th. GREAT! That's exactly my point. You can use him in the highest leverage spots rather than just point by numbers and making him your closer. No, my argument was that they SHOULDN'T and I didn't think they would trade Megill. Of course that argument now NOT having the ability to use Uribe when you need him earlier is part and parcel to my larger point, but no, my argument was... we shouldn't trade Megill to save salary. Because he's "in his 30s and 6'8," which seems very arbitrary or simply because you CAN replace him. Also, I didn't think this article was accurate and that I thought the entire logic was flawed. Trading cheap salaries now so you have the money to go out at the deadline and trade for players? The players you're trading away now are almost certainly going to be the positions you want depth at at the deadline. Just last year we traded FOR a closer and that was with a healthy Megill and Mears who had 2.84 ERA, 2.88 FIP at that time. So despite having Megill, Uribe, Ashby, Koenig and a VERY good reliever in Mears at the deadline, we STILL traded for Shelby Miller... who slotted in behind all of them and we took on Jordan Montgomery in order to add Miller. But of course trading your closer away and now... moving Uribe into the closers role(whatever phrase works) weakens your entire pen. Trading Megill and Mears for Yoho and Bukauskas... makes this team much worse and it saves you very little, even for a team like the Brewers. 2nd post- In response to the trading Mears "won't matter at all," and that we can just replace Megill with Uribe and Mears with Yoho or Bukauskas Which we can... and in doing so, make our ENTIRE Bullpen weaker. THIS is where you came into the conversation. Even in the post you're replying to, my argument is certainly not based on not wanting to pigeon hole Uribe into the closers role, but not wanting to lose Megill. So... the same argument I've been making the whole time, but the ENTIRE point of contention is how I articulated their use of Uribe and how I think that benefits the Brewers? Being able to use him in the highest leverage spots earlier in the game(for instance when the other team has their best RHed hitters coming up in the 7th)?

LOL... is this a serious question? Yeah, I don't see ANYONE saying we should keep Ortiz at SS and then move Collins to 2B. I don't... even know what we're talking about now. You wrote that without ANY sense of irony, didn't you?

You just said the "smart lineup" would be Turang at SS, Ortiz at 3B and Durbin at 2B. Someone says, "I hope Mitchell can contribute next year," and you post 39 times in succession that you're absolutely positive he won't, but here... you're just feeding off an idea you don't agree with? Sure.

1- 25 1/3 of his IP were in the 7th or earlier. So... I'd say quite a bit of his innings were used in the exact role I defined. We've had relievers of the year who weren't closers several times, so I'm not sure how this is disputable,. And 2- NO, my argument does NOT boil down to not wanting to pigeon hole a guy who was "already pigeon holed," which... by the way, you claimed that it was hard to see that as anything but negative, but moving on, my argument BEFORE we got into the semantics of what pigeon holed meant was that I DIDN'T THINK WE SHOULD TRADE A PITCHER LIKE MEGILL to save ~4M dollars. And that if the Brewers did that... with THAT being their motivation because they want to cut payroll now so they can add what will almost invariably be worse players at the deadline OR players who are as good, but will obviously than cost a LOT in prospect capital as... shockingly high leverage relievers are valuable at the deadline. The point was THEN made that Uribe was ready for the closers job... which I not once disagreed with, but you assumed I did and now we're in a circular and... kinda dead-end conversation here that's REALLY quite a ways off topic but now you're arguing THIS; isn't true...;and I'm just not sure what Brewers team you've been watching for the last 7 years. And I asked a REALY straightforward question that was at the heart of this entire thread... and you came back with several more questions for me. So... should they trade Megill to save 4.2M dollars? THAT could not have been a simpler question to answer.

He had a really low BABIP last year and his walks were cut in half(BB%). That seems like someone who is pressing and will figure it out. If he's the offensive player he was in '24, we're fine. Fans also forget they were pretty down on Turang at this time last year. Great glove... couldn't hit. And he hit pretty well this year... if you forget the last 4 games.

Good god dude, we get it... this is in about 89% of you posts... even when Mitchell hasn't been brought up. Collins came up as a SS/2B. He had very good scouting reports at 2B. The Brewers moved him because he was blocked at 2B. I'm not sure I understand the logic or how we get better when we just shuffle the IF around. Ortiz was an elite defender at SS. Why move him to 3B so you can move Turang, an elite defender at 2B, a Platinum Glove winner and then Caleb Durbin to 2B. That only seems to benefit Turang financially in the long-turn.

THIS; Is absolutely how they operate when they can. OBVIOUSLY when you have someone like Hader and he's losing money, you can't keep him in that role for years, but they did keep him in it until he went to arbitration and then they used the lack of saves. At that point, Devin Williams came in and HE was the closer. I don't get why we're still doing this though. You misunderstood what I said about pigeonholing him in as a closer, you took it as a negative... whatever, cleared that up and now what is the point? This is from a few days ago. It feels like we're getting pretty pedantic here. Do you think they should trade Megill so they can save 4.2M? That's where the discussion started and where it really should have ended.

I think it's a little bit of an assumption that it's a bubble at all. Spending may slow down, but... a lot of these articles are written by people who... have no real expertise whereas those that do have a different opinion. The big article from "Tom's Hardware" that spread... it was written by "12 industry insiders." That was picked up by Reuters and spread about how Google is now a major threat to NVDA with their TPUs. 6 of them had zero experiance working for... any of the big companies, certainly no experiance in FAANG, AI Engineers... basically a bunch of interns and some analysts. I realize EVERYTHING gets labeled as "manipulation," in the market when a stock doesn't go up, but this past week, since earnings really, there has been some concerted effort to drive down the stock price. I don't expect NVDA to keep growing at 62% YOY, but... it's very possible we get ONE more year of that and then just consistent growth. I think OpenAI and their ability to generate revenue is going to be a massive indicator, but NVDA just announced a plan to Partner with GOOGL to build a 500B Data Center in Taiwan to "help begin to build the infrastructure for the future of Cloud services in Asia." It'd be foolish to say there's no bubble... but I don't know that you can assume there IS a bubble. Are we REALLY so sure that the money being spent is more than what the intrinsic value of the massive Data Centers and Cloud Providers will be? If not... it's not a bubble. Are these companies really that overvalued? NVDA has a forward PE in the low 20s(depending on the projections). **And if NVDA gets export permits to sell the H200 to China... which seems pretty likely at this point, Again, not arguing it's NOT a bubble, just questioning the narrative that it's certainly a bubble and now just a massive economic shift that happens once every... ~100 years or so. If there's not a massive ROI on these startups that are borrowing billions of dollars, yeah, that's going to cause a massive collapse in the market. On the other hand... there are a lot of experts who believe the annual capex for "AI," which includes Cloud services... even though they're not the same, but setting that aside, the annual capex for GPUs, ASICs, TPUs will reach 1.3T per year by 2030(some more aggressive estimates). That's Morgan Stanley, UBS, CITI, JP Morgan... But, again, if OPenAI falls flat and doesn't start generating revenue by 2028 and has hundreds of billions it owes or these other large projects run out of money and can't generate revenue, it's going to hit the the largest companies and that's going to take out a LOT of 401Ks. There's also the power issues. The accounting seems to be pretty contrived by Burry though. In fact, in the last year, Amazon has lowered the depreciation cycle on their GPUs to 4 years. META and MSFT have raised it to 6 years. I believe GOOGL has kept it at 5 years. So they don't seem to know... so to ascribe some fraudulent behavior behind it is irresponsible IMO(that's not directed to you of course, but again, Burry).

They wouldn't have interest in Patrick and Yoho as the centerpiece. I don't think Yoho really has much value at all as a trade piece. Not in a CJ Abrams/Neto type package. Patrick has quite a it IMO, but... not as a centerpiece for a SS with back to back 5WAR seasons and 20+ HRs, good defense. I think Made, Pena or maybe Pratt. The Angels are pretty stubborn about their place though. They'll keep spending and losing and trying to win without a real rebuild. Where I kinda disagree, I'm not sure why you would make Ortiz your everyday 3B if you move Turang to SS. AT that point, Collins should play 2B, Durbin has earned another year at 3B.. that should be the starting lineup.

LOL... you've invented this "original offer." What in fact WAS the was the "original offer" I made? I said we're DEFINITELY not signing "a player or two," like Hoskins or a Montas, players who made... on average of 17M a year when they were on the Brewers. THAT'S the only "bet" I'm making and I'm not going to entertain any more as I... don't think you believe what you're saying. I said we're DEFINITELY not signing "a player or two," like Hoskins or a Montas, players who made... on average of 17M a year when they were on the Brewers. You've made the spread Hoskins 2/34 to literally ANYONE. Eric Hasse comes back but doesn't make the team, well... we signed someone! You win! LOL... that's just ridiculous. You made the initial argument, you wanted to "bet." There could be a guy named Samchez out there, maybe we'll sign him... or some Jarvis(perhaps Paul Bettany is in need of employment, I don't know.... maybe we have some AI programs). Anyway, I'm not entertaining this. You set the bar at comically high as a minimum and now you're setting it as comically low as a minimum and trying to shift it as though I wanted to engage in some bet in the first place. I mean, if you really need opening day tickets that bad, we'll work something out!

No. We're ALMOST certain to sign a NRI or a Minor League FA... I WILL bet you we're not going to sign ANYONE in the Hoskins/Montas price ranges.

That wasn't really a "business analyst." Also, a "guy or two(Hoskins/Quintana)." That's... quite a chasm there. 2/34M we committed to Hoskins... and 1 year 2M and then 2M buyout. Not really similar at all. What's more, what "business analysis" do you think has been done here? It's usually not a good financial decision to borrow against the equity you've accrued in a business? That's just... well, it doesn't take an MBA. I don't really expect any FA signings, much less a Hoskins signing at this point.

It's just kinda sloppy football across the board. I thought it was just the Packers in a few games, but... it's everyone. There's not a great team in the league. The Rams are probably the best right now, the Eagles I still think will be end of the year, but I think Hurts is overrated. Their WRs are struggling to get open. The Pats are 10-2. I don't think they're that good. They're solid, not great... for example. Not trashing NE.

How did they recently stop it? I don't get how CPI would be cooked/manipulated. Jobs is often revised up or down... has been for a long time. But the CPI?

It's getting really hard to take Burry seriously. It's like he's chasing that 2008 feeling again. 2017-Called for a market crash and WWIII 2019-Said the ETF bubble would pop and the market would collapse. 2020-2021-Shorted TSLA a couple times... did poorly. 2023-Jan He told everyone "sell everything now." He was again... very wrong. Shorted NVDA in 2023, '24, '25. He's closed his latest short position. His entire thesis kinda falls apart when Ampere(not 5 years old) is still in service due to their software updates. He's saying that the actual lifecycle is more like 3-4 years. Ampere is going on 6 years old. Now, if he was citing private equity and how some of these companies are borrowing SO much money and still a ways away from being profitable, I'd see the logic there, but that's an awfully big claim. Amazon, MSFT, META, Alphabet, Oracle, they're all lying about the depreciation of their GPUs? Now the guy who he kinda retweets and is... associated with is suggesting NVDA is potentially committing fraud because going back 12 Quarters(which they were bringing in like ~4B in GC revenue) the average period from delivery to getting paid was 46 days. It's not 53 days. Really some big leaps. Just 6 months ago it was how this was so cyclical and 2026 would be a down year... and now you have 500B in commitments through 2026. NVDA has also gotten beaten down a bit despite just incredible earnings because of reports that Google is going to be selling their TPUs... which... is again, kinda silly... but this was from the co-designer of GOOGL's TPU Ironwood(since deleted) with regard to NVDA.

You use equity to borrow to grow your business... Real Estate is a fine example... and you could come up with other ways it would make sense, but this isn't one of them. The Brewers are already maxing out. Unless he's going to sell... how's he repaying the equity? I don't think they should or need or will just deal a guy like Megill to save 4.4M. I also don't want them to go out and sign Bichette and then in the future have to slash the payroll. They're doing fine. Bringing this team back with the young guys who should get better. Chourio is on the verge of breaking out, Garrett Mitchell... just because people mentioning him seems to elicit a lot of anger, I find it mildly amusing, Quero, Henderson... and several other prospects who may or may not contribute. Adams and Wilken could. Wichrowski... who knows. I feel like mentioning again though, even if Attanasio wanted to use the equity in the team... he owns less than 40% of the team. So that 1.7B, his share might be 600M. He also wants it to stay in his family. So he's going to be passing that down

It doesn't look good for them. They have a tough schedule left. 2X Jags, 49ers, Texans. Seattle. The Texans defense looks pretty good.

Yeah, that's what makes what they're doing a little scarier though. They finally have an offensive minded head coach and I don't think Williams has played great... by any means. Probably the #3 QB in that draft, but Goff isn't a world beat and Johnson had that offense among the best in the league. I do think they're pretty legit though.

We're not even talking about really stretching it. At most we're up ~10M from last year... and they made at least that with their playoff run. And of COURSE the Brewers "believe in windows." Saying they want "more bites at the apple," does not mean they don't recognize when they're competitive and have a chance to win now. They know they have a good team. That's why I don't believe they're going to be pinching pennies and trading these contracts that are extremely team friendly to cut payroll. I'm also confused why a potential lockout in '27 would in some way result in the Brewers saving money. If there's no season, there's no payroll, but there IS still TV money. That money(National deal at least) is Guaranteed. So that doesn't make sense. They're making money every year. They're not raking it in and making hundreds of millions, but they're not operating at a loss.