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BrewerFan

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Everything posted by BrewerFan

  1. BrewerFan
    The argument that the Dodgers are going to pretty blatantly break the rules in order to get him to sign for less now is...a pretty big assumption. And if the Dodgers did that...assuming MLB found out, that'd be a pretty significant punishment. Negating the signing for one.
  2. BrewerFan
    You're confusing a LOT of trade ideas with GOOD trade ideas. How long until we hit the "should we trade Chourio" discussion?
  3. BrewerFan
    Yeah...I did. I didn't notice it was moved, but it was in the thread...in which he brings up trading Contreras and I'd guess If we can spare the 40 man spot, he'd be worth bringing on...but that was in response to Quero not being a lock at Catcher. I was both advocating Cartaya and agreeing Quero isn't a lock(though...nobody is).
  4. BrewerFan
    Diego Cartaya was just DFA'ed...at 22. I'd claim him and give him some time...not sure where. I guess AA or AAA as the backup and in the OF?
  5. BrewerFan
    I think you could make a pretty reasonable guess that it was any of the three teams, Balt, Boston or Toronto. Boston is where I'd have my money. They said they were putting together a final aggressive offer shortly after the Fried contract and the Mets signing Soto. Crochet and Burnes with their young lineup would have been pretty damn good...and they haven't been spending much recently, a disgruntled fanbase.
  6. BrewerFan
    I wouldn't compare Burnes and Williams playoff meltdowns. Or Williams and Haders. Hader got beat by Freeman and Soto, two of the best hitters of their era. Williams just melted down and gave up a whole lot of runs. Couldn't the same be said about any pitcher? The argument can't be that he's been durable and dominant, so he's due...right? I don't know...but you seem to go with the 'I didn't want him anyway,' argument when an ex-Brewer gets a big deal upon leaving the Brewers. If we had an extra 35M, the Brewers may have been more inclined to give Burnes a deal after his 3rd year when he publicly talked about not having been offered an extension(though he said he'd have liked to) and we could have bought out his arbitration years+ 2-3 FA years and been paying him for just a couple more years. He got ~32M the last 3 years. 6 years 120M, 5/90. You'd be in the option years right now. OR...they could have 35M more and extend Contreras a couple more years or they could have signed Christian Walker, Goldschmidt. And maybe that money would be spent on a bad contract...just as some of the money we spend will be spent on bad deals as it is...the last year of Yelich contract. 35M more in payroll is a pretty hard thing to turn into a negative...and being the question to which you're responding to is about specifically, having 35M more to spend a year, if it's all on Burnes or not, we'd be better for it.
  7. BrewerFan
    I'd guess at least half of those are on Williams. QBs can make an OLs "grades" so much better or so much worse...and obviously vice versa. I know we had good to elite pass-blocking grades when Billy Turner, Royce Newman and others were getting a lot of snaps after Bakhtiari got hurt. Josh Myers was one of the top graded pass blocking Centers in that period as well.. Pass Block Win/Loss rate has become one of the most meaningless stats IMO. Rodgers would get the ball out so quickly on so many pass attempts, those would go down as wins. Love is pretty good at this as well, though not where Rodgers was(a pretty high bar). But Williams is running around back there trying to play hero ball. He makes some incredible throws, but he plays undisciplined, erratic, doesn't take the easy pass. And he's still had a pretty damn good rookie year all things considered. That's why an offense where he gets a lot of easy reads, easy completions...that's kinda scary. Especially if they get a franchise LT in the top 10 picks. In fact, if I was Chicago, I'd use two of my top 3 picks(2 2nd rd picks) on the OL. I remain confident the Bears will blow it and the fan base will be clamoring for Arch Manning before long...
  8. BrewerFan
    It's poor coaching. It absolutely has to be. That team is more talented than the Vikings...IMO and they're...what, 7 games behind in the standings. They've got 3 really good WRs, their OL isn't good, but it's not terrible. They're just always a poorly run mess. I'm terrified Ben Johnson is going to take that job in the off-season. Look at what he's done with Detroit and then give him a young QB like Williams, Odunze, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Kmet and a couple good backs? Plus, they'll have a top 10 pick. That has to be on an OT. Wright is a really good RT. But it's the Bears, so they'll probably hire a defensive minded HC and continue to let Caleb sink or swim on his own.
  9. BrewerFan
    Yeah...I think people are WAY too down on Black. He's been moved around to suit where the big league team may need him. He can play a competent 2nd, 1st, OF. Everyone said he was improving at 3B and then Ortiz took over there and we had no need for him. He's a young top 100 prospect who really hasn't gotten a shot yet. Lets let it play out with him.
  10. BrewerFan
    His agent has said he'd like to go to a small market team and that may give the Brewers an advantage. He caught a lot of heat from the Japanese media for wanting to come over here so early, he doesn't like the media. He prefers a quiet market(but he also hasn't really spoken in depth about his decision yet). So sure, I'd guess SD or Seattle based on that, but...it'd be pretty cool. And I'd think you could rebuild those relationships. I mean, whoever signs him, they'll presumably be in the same position.
  11. BrewerFan
    Yeah, we're selling low and it's not like we've even got the oppurtunity to go back out and use it for Goldschmitd or Walker or whomever. We're likely just give up a decent prospect to save 15M(vs 22M) and I think he'll be worth it to us. Give him a 2nd year. Even if you can dump the salary, for what? Now you're losing Adames and Hoskins and getting? You're selling low. If you could have traded him and picked up Goldschmidt, fine, but he's gone, Walker, even guys like Santana. It's just a hole in your lineup(unless you get Yellich to play 1B and that seems unlikely, and you still don't have a great lineup vs LHP. Another year, better BABIP...I'll bet .800 OPS or higher 28 HRs or higher.
  12. BrewerFan
    Right...of course there are economic disparities. That's why they're talking about it. The solution is sharing the media rights. That's where much of the disparity comes from. What they're explaining is basically the NFL(though even ticket sales are in revenue sharing). In that scenario, of course Milwaukee would be able to survive on a 150M floor. I don't think they'd be setting the cap at 400M a year or even 300. Where the luxury tax is seems like a more reasonable starting point. My guess is that's what they're trying to work towards and Bally and that whole situation may have helped expedite that.
  13. BrewerFan
    Or...we just give up our next 2 first rd picks and paid a big fine? Probably better than ruining out relationships. This kid would likely be our #1 next year. If he'll come, you have to take that deal. The dollar amount is 20% of the total guarantee. I don't think that comes out of the bonus pool, but I don't know. The player does select the team. It's just a signing bonus and then 6 years of team control. The Brewers do have a shot. His agent speculated the Brewers may have a better shot as he's had negative experiences with the media and he doesn't want to go to a large market. We have the most money. Everyone is talking about going after him. Arnold is not so much, but we don't talk about much before it happens. I think he could be as significant a signing as any Wisconsin sports team has ever made outside of #92 in GB and maybe Woodson?
  14. BrewerFan
    Yeah, I really hate this idea. We're looking at...what, eating 10M to facilitate a trade, then spend maybe 15M on a player like Goldy who may or may not even be an upgrade at this point. He missed a year, came back, had a lower BABIP, two bad months in June and August and...he'll come back, a year removed from the ACL and I'd bet put up a 800 OPS ~30 HRs for another team that we gave him away to. Just seems like a bad idea and like we'll force this. I'm more than happy to give Black, Bauers(hopefully some upgrade) and Hoskins the ABs at 1st and DH with the usual suspects filling in at DH. No reason to create another hole we have to fix....unless you can actually get out of the contract and replace it with Walker or Goldschmidt and I think that's unlikely.
  15. BrewerFan
    Yeah...I think both of the trades you've suggested make some sense. I don't want to do the first and I don't think Boston does the later. Boston is trying to toe that line of young talent and a top ~5 payroll without gonig nuts. So an elite SS with 25 HR power, or a 3B(which I think Mayer is more suited to 3rd as Devers moves to 1st) is going to give them a young controllable stud. 1B-Casas 2B-Kristian Campbell(#10 overall) SS-Mayer(#7 overall) 3B-Devers OF-Rafaela, Duran(8.7 WAR), Abreu(3.4 WAR), Anthony(#3 overall prospect) DH-Yoshida C-Wong/Jansen If I'm Boston, I'm going after Burnes, going with the young core, maybe you get STory healthy and move him, but Wong was good last year, Jansen has been a good hitter most of his career. I wouldn't deal a SS/3B that highly regarded and their other top 100 prospect is a SS. When he's ready, you move Devers to 1B, Mayer to 3rd and you've got an elite mostly young IF with Devers as the vet, a young OF. I'd want Peralta and Contreras for Mayer and maybe a guy like Wong. That may be closer to what it'd take to get Mayer...IMO. Boston isn't acting like a team that's a great fit for us given how theyr're building. But I like the idea of getting Mayer.
  16. BrewerFan
    I don't recall Bauers playing many games at DH with Hoskins at 1B. How many games did Bauers start at DH in which Hoskins started at 1B? I have a very different recollection than you. I know Bauers had a total of 43 PAs in 17 Games. I seem to remember most of those games...he came in as a PH and wasn't a DH option over Hoskins. Casas is a 1B with 4 years of team control. Quero is a GG caliber catcher who at 20-21 was the best defensive catcher in the minors and put up a 262/.339/.441 .779 at AA. He also hit 16HRs in 90 games. A league-average offensive player who is a GG catcher is more valuable than Casas, especially when you compare time. 4 years of Casas vs nearly 7 for Quero. It's a great trade if you have the money of a mid-market team, but Quero's value is too much. He's probably looking at starting when he's 23. Call him up a couple months into the season, you get 23-29 season. You extend him...should he prove worth it as the season goes on, you pick up a couple more options. I'll take that over a good 1B. What's more, if you get Casas, you are getting a slightly worse version of Rhys Hoskins entire career save for last year coming offf a torn ACL.
  17. BrewerFan
    What about him? You have a question little scouting report on him? I know next to nothing about these young arms until I can see them at Appleton and even t. At least the IFAs. We don't get much in the way of scouting reports. Does he have a big arm? He's a smaller guy, but that's a good jump. A couple outings at HiA to the Brewers Pen?
  18. BrewerFan
    Why are we pushing Ashby out of the rotation? Aside from the fact that no team gets through the year with 5 starters, he's got the highest upside of any of those arms save for maybe Woody but we we need a 6th starter. Woody coming off injury, Ashby/Hall innings counts. I'm not worried about having too many who can starter. Another thing to consider is that Myers hasn't been great the 3rd time through...so that could be part of an early season plan. Myers to Hall, Ashby the 6th day. Just leave Misiorowski in AAA to get a full yeaer, maybe bring him up if there's an injury or he forces his way in. But Ashby? NO reason to not have him starter the season as the #6(at least) and throwing 3-4 innings when there is a day off or...just go with the 6 man either way. He has a starters repertoire and he throws an upper 90s sinker with filthy movement. I think Uribe becames the best or 2nd best reliever, but I also love the idea of a full season of Mears, Hudson, Yoho, We've got power arms, we've got a bunch of lefties. I think our Pen will be as good next year as this year. I think Mears will break out. DL Hall will slide into that long man, maybe move up to that SU man(though I still like him as a starter as well).
  19. BrewerFan
    The Math is real simple IMO and I don't have to talk myself into it. They added Tucker for Bellinger/Suzuki(lets say one for the sake or argument), Paredes and Wesneski just for next years team. They also traded away the 14th pick in the draft from last year, the #1 prospect in the Astros organization now. They added...maybe2 WAR to next years team. Tucker is a top ~10 hitter in Baseball. I also don't think he makes the Cubs much better next year. Both of those things can be true. It's not Fantasy Baseball. Maybe they make another trade and move Busch so Bellinger can play 1B. But then they still have to try and move Suzuki...who has a NTC. Or they can play Bellinger in CF and I'm not sure what happens to PCA in that scenario...but they added to the strength of their team for a player who'll likely net them a comp pick in a year. I don't think that's worth what they gave up. If you think they're a playoff team, then fine. The upgrade might actually make a difference. I agree with @sveumrules...how good of a trade it is will depend on any extension. I could also change my mind based on other signings. If the trade rumors are true and they're dealing another top 100 prospect+ for a pitcher who is extremely erratic...eh, just not a team that really scares me.
  20. BrewerFan
    I think it's really dumb on the Cubs behalf. I do think the period they have to extend him is very relevant. So relevant, it's what makes or breaks the trade. They're going to have to trade at least one of Bellinger or Haap or Suzuki? And the gap between them isn't THAT big. If they extend him, fine, but if Soto is getting 765 and up to 830 with 75M up front, Tucker is certainly worth 400M over 12 years or so. 300 would be a great deal, not a discount.
  21. BrewerFan
    They have new owners, so if they're going to keep Gunnnar, Adley, Jackson Holliday, they have a BIG window and then fine. I don't know if they will though. Also...how does Max Fried get 218M? I guess maybe Burnes is just gonna get that much money. The 7/200 projections(that were always low) must be closer to Cole type numbers now. A year younger, pretty similar, but Burnes has been healthier and he's a little more dominant when both are on.
  22. BrewerFan
    Oh...well, they were right. Some of these posts are stating things as facts because we just don't think it will happen, but if you actually have a reason, I will keep that in mind. And clearly you were right. Looking at what they got, the Brewers probably got out real quick. I actually get the price going up since the deadline. I didn't think he had all that much use to us at the deadline. Now, he's thrown a full year and a team can limit his innings, but he's pretty much going to be able to handle a full workload next year. That's with the Brewers. He's athletic and if he can hit, I think teams will want him. I think he's got positions, they're just positions the Brewers have depth and talent at. He's athletic. You can play in the OF if you're athletic(especially if you were happy running Eloy out there). 1B I'd imagine. If his skills at 2B/3B are below par for the Brewers or even for a team like the Sox, I'd think he could play 1B. He's young, athletic and has hit at every level. There's still value there. Yeah, I did say I don't think he's got much value. Maybe some as a 1st rd pick, but not much.
  23. BrewerFan
    Maybe...or maybe this is just how the Brewers do things. How they've always done things. Seldom are any big moves the Brewers make telegraphed. Even when they trade players away, it's surprising but not surprising. They made moves last year that made it appear they were going to try and compete and then traded Burnes when we assumed he'd be around. Hader was out of nowhere, Cain, Yelich. Any one player is going to be a longshot. I don't think being left out of one article means we're in or not. As for your proposal, I really like Lara and that's 4 good prospects, but for a guy who's open to an extension? Say 3/60 with a couple TO? I'd do that and I'd add a little if you could get an agreement done. So take the ~2.9M he's projected to make, 7M for next year and then add the 3 years. 5/70, 10M SB to entice him(which would probably make it harder but worth it). For that, I'd be on board. But we don't even know if they're actually in it or not.
  24. BrewerFan
    I don't know that it is true. I don't know the current system does maximize the revenue for players. I don't know what % of revenue is going to the players this year, but it'd been trending down for a while, even with the massive money spent by the top few teams, it was ~38%, 39% of revenue was spent on players. NFL, NBA, NHL, they get 48%-51% of revenue. But those leagues, the NFL in particular, they take all that TV money, put it in one pot and each team gets a check at the start of the year. That check is enough to cover the Packers operating expenses for the year. Maybe not in a year in which they go nuts with signing bonuses or basically circumvent the cap...but plenty to cover the salary cap and then some. This was Bud Selig's mission as commissioner, and he did some good work. Some of it is pretty gimmicky. The comp picks, whatever. He did increase revenue sharing...but it's not remotely similar to the other leagues. For now, the Brewers are competing by just doing more with less and their player development, and that can make it almost more fun at times...or maybe that's just rationalization, but it's better than calling the Brewers cheap constantly or pretending the chasm doesn't exist.
  25. BrewerFan
    My man...they're doing this to dump salary. But in this scenario, they take back 22M in GTD salary Hoskins is owed. So take the ~64M they owe Arrenado and subtract that. And then they give away Jordan Walker...who you want for a reason and they trade him as well. And their return is a bad contract, a guy who was a FA MiLB pitcher and Tyler Black who...he's nice, but only save a little money this year and get back that package? In a rebuilding year?
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