BrewerFan

We added McKinney and Jacobs last year and had probably the best safety duo in the NFL when Williams was healthy...which is a fairly big caveat, but McKinney was certainly doing something. This year we added Banks which is more significant in that it allows Jenkins to move to Center and shore up a more important position on the OL while still having a pretty good LG. Zach Tom. That's going to be a pretty big contract extension. I hope Wicks becomes one, but I don't think we're earmarking him for one. Tucker Kraft would be another who I'd certainly hope we're discussing. I think the Packers have done a pretty good job of balancing expecting improvement from within with adding players. The expectations are...pretty high. We went from Rodgers, Adams, competing for Super Bowls, everyone in here thought we were going back to the 70s and 80s...there were a lot of posts suggesting as much. Now two years after a complete rebuild while we've had a ton of dead cap, we came out of it and we were a game away from the NFCCG and lost to the NFC Champions in '23...a year we probably should have been picking in the top 5-10 and then we came back in probably the best division in the league and we won 11 games. I don't think Hobbs was all that obscure of a name. He did have a similar grade to Stokes and I wish they'd have brought Stokes back for 4M....but maybe he wasn't willing to. In just man coverage, I think Stokes is more of a sure thing and has more upside given he lost a chunk of his rookie deal to the lisfranc and then surgery on his knee. I think it's obvious the Packers are looking for more physical corners though as the big difference in their grades was Hobbs grade vs the run. Stokes was never a physical corner. That said, the fact that he "blew his projections out of the water," isn't all that telling. Most players tend to do that. Especially with the Cap rising at about 10% per year. They guaranteed Hobbs 16M. They're not exactly tied to him very long with that and it's not going to stop them from trying to address the position(I'd guess it has very little impact other than they don't feel the NEED to double down at CB like they did last year with Safety and LB, generally positions that aren't as valuable.

CBs in particular seem like they've been running fewer and fewer agility drills. Maybe that's because it can usually only hurt your draft prospects. Mitchell, Arnold, DeJean, McKinstry, I don't think any of the top CBs participated. Of those that do, most seem to just do the shuttle and not the 3-cone...which is more valuable in evaluations(at least the Packers use it more). Jabbar Muhammad...I don't know if he gets drafted, but I love the way he plays. May not translate and doesn't seem to check any of the boxes the Packers look for in terms of frame of testing, but he's tough and competitive. If he's a UDFA, he'd be one of the priority UDFA's I'd look at. He reminds me a lot of Gary(or LVN for that matter)...not that I expect him to be the same player, but he played a lot of 5 technique in College, he's a bigger DE who is pretty agile for his size, carries his weight well.

You weren't expecting a Luke Musgrave rebuttal? Dude, you're comparing him to Tyler Davis and talking about how the Packers have held on to the 42nd pick of the draft longer than normal... And yes, it was a joke because he tripped and fell. That's happened to anyone who's played football at ANY level and you see the hole or you get behind the defense and you get a little over excited. That doesn't mean he's not a fluid athlete. That was by far, objectively, his strongest trait coming out. His athleticism. He grew up skiing, nearly EVERY scouting report made reference to how he "glides" out there, how "loose" he is. And he showed that. I don't think breaking arm tackles as a TE has really anything to do with that. I'd say that you could probably go back and find thousands of Running Backs who were more fluid than Derek Henry or Mike Alstott who didn't break as many tackles. That has to do with power. The 33rd team https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10048402-luke-musgrave-nfl-draft-2023-scouting-report-for-oregon-state-te https://packerswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2023/04/28/what-draft-experts-said-about-new-packers-tight-end-luke-musgrave/79655200007/ Dane Brugler Lance Zierlien The Draft Network Pro Football Network Front office scouting; I could go on, but the "tight hips," or him being stiff just don't show up when he plays or in any aspect of his game. He's long legged and he's not as physical a runner as Kraft...and he hasn't been able to stay healthy, so it may all be moot, but I don't know how you watch Luke Musgrave and come away with stiff athlete. I've checked out Terrance Ferguson. He's a poor man's Musgrave. You watch him and see a more fluid athlete who breaks arm tackles? I'd be fine seeing the Packers take another TE as Musgrave HAS been hurt and they love running that 12 personnel, though I suspect if they do, they're going to look for a TE who can play more of an H-Back. Warren would be great, but he'll be gone too early.

This is a bad QB class, but Sanders should be a rd1 pick. He's mobile, but more importantly, he throws the ball with such good anticipation and has good accuracy. If this was a class with 2-3 elite QBs like last year, he'd be more of a Jalen Hurts type to me, but I don't see the Willis comp. Willis didn't face high end competition. The one thing that could impact this is Deion could meddle and try and steer him to a team that develops QBs better. The Giants shouldn't be in that conversation...nor should most top 10-15 teams, but one team that makes a lot of sense are the Dolphins. I feel like we're watching a guy who is going to just have a miserable life by the time he's 35 in Tua if he keeps playing, nonetheless, it looks like they're going to stick with him at least one more year. AT that point...they could save a ton of money if they could find a trade partner. A team that's set up and just needs a QB...or hopefully he just retires. That's the case with most QBs though. Willis was so bad, the Titans gave up on him, he comes to GB and he looks like a really good QB(in a limited and constrained game plan). I think Sanders future will be no different, it's going to depend on where he goes, he's obviously not like Caleb or Daniels, but I think he's a lot better than Willis. As for the WRs, none of the top guys do much for me outside of McMillan and he's not go. TCU has a couple guys who are interesting to be an option in Rd3 or 4 perhaps. Egbuka is a good looking WR who seems like a savvy WR. Similar-ish to a JSN. A good slot without elite speed or athletic ability. I think we need more of a Xavier Worthy type and I don't see one that's worth a 1st rd pick. Jayden Higgins would be a good fit. Bond from UT maybe in Rd3. Higgins has the size we like. Bond has that deep speed that opens up the middle of the field. Blech the kid from TCU seems really well rounded and a potential steal. I think the biggest improvements will come from within though. The young WRs were good as far as drops two years ago and they were awful last year. If they can get back to where they were, great. The one move that'd terrify me is Pickens from the Steelers. He seems like a diva but he's also extremely talented. That one would be a tough call if he was made available for trade as rumored.

He's definitely had injury concerns, but looking at Musgraves and saying he's not "fluid," is like looking at Jackson Chourio and saying, 'I just don't see the bat speed.' He's about as fluid as you could find in a TE.

I don't agree this will lead to a better "playing field," for the US. -We're starting trade wars with allies. -Tariffs, across the board tariffs and trade wars do not work. We're going back to 1870 for our outline. WE also had REAL cheap labor just a decade before that. We now live in a global economy now. The EU, Canada and Mexico. Those are our targets(as of now, April 2nd could get a whole helluva lot worse). Trump signed the damn deal with Canada and Mexico after tweaking NAFTA and declared it the greatest trade deal ever....and now because we import lot of energy from Canada...oh, and all those Canadian Cartels up there, we're starting a trade war with them? As for the markets bouncing back...yeah, they always do eventually. A Bear market lasts on average 8 months. We're USUALLY in a bull market. Maybe it'll be a year(market gets MUCH more important with the mid-terms coming up) or maybe it's 3 years, 5. I don't know, tariff wars make this a LOT more complicated...which is why I was talking about Smoot-Hawley previously(at LEAST when congress passed that Months BEFORE the '29 crash, it was congress, not just Hoover). This is causing real pain for people right now. Personally, I think I'll come out of this better. I sold a lot during the "Trump bump," and I'm about 80% back in as of this week and my income doesn't rely on an employer. I do think the people who've called 90 of the last 2 recessions are going to be right this time...

So they waited too long to raise rates. Ok...lets grant that's the case. You're going back years not months. As of last quarter, we were growing the GDP at over 3%, the CPI was down to 2.7% and unemployment has been VERY low for a while now. The bubble you're talking about...I don't agree. That's what happens when you have great growth. The economy was in a great place...and particularly in a great place relative to the rest of the world. This is not a correction or a dip(it's getting close to the definition of a crash according to some indexes...Russell -19% is nearly there). And it didn't happen organically. It happened deliberately. With a...foolish plan for blanket tariffs and a cowardly congress that ceded it's authority. That's just another thing we've ignored. Tariffs are meant to be for emergencies or passed through congress. They ceded that power and they also included language to state this session of congress is ONE calendar day so they couldn't actually have a vote or a debate on it. This wasn't a bubble, the multiples of these companies weren't getting ridiculous(as a whole). Obviously you had some, but you always do. But these companies are growing double digits each quarter, the ones driving the market and the fundamentals of the US Economy aside from the Market were strong. I heard so many times 'This is the worst inflation we've ever seen, nobody has seen inflation this bad.' We had 10% unemployment and 10% inflation, actual stagflation from Nixon when he froze prices(and wages) and it stayed that way under Ford, Carter and into Reagans years when we started cranking up the deficit spending. The "Recession is coming," people are yelling that constantly and perhaps it would have come. I don't know why we're actively steering into one though. THAT is my issue....

This is all great, but if we were having a poor spring I'd feel the same. I'm happy to see guys healthy and throwing the ball well. Woody throwing in the mid 90s(touching mid 90s) Hoskins swinging the bat and moving well...I thought he looked a bit lighter, but hard to tell. Yelich looks like he's loose and swinging free. Haven't seen Uribe, but I think he is a VERY important player to this team in 2025. Chourio is going to break out(even more) and if Dunn does as well? That'd certainly fill out the lineup. I also really expect Turang to take another step. A FULL season of hitting the ball, getting on base a little better plus his defense. I think he can be a .270/.360/400 type hitter who steals 40 bases and plays Gold...or Platinum level defense at 2nd.

I think Musgrave can definitely make an impact, but I think Wicks and Lloyd can as well. Wicks had his drop rate increase by 5X last year. His rookie year he was very good on 3rd down. Both years 39 receptions...rookie year 58 targets, last year 76. He's had an every other year thing going back to UVA, but if he's good this year, I think that keeps the chains moving and he's a good #2 WR. And Lloyd, I think he brings a new dimension to the offense. LaFleur was pretty excited about him. I think the plan was for him to be the #2 back, run that outside zone that they went away from last year and he's good in pass protection. He just had a miserable rookie season last year. Injury and then he was expected back and he had Appendicitis and they petitioned the league for an exemption for him. I don't think we need any of them to be big game changers though, just each of them contributing and staying on the field. Musgrave is going to that same Madison training...thing that Watson and Stokes did where they determined Stokes right leg was 18% stronger which left his left leg more susceptible to injury or whatever it was exactly. Makes me think maybe we should be proactive and send guys there before they get hurt(or maybe hire them and bring them up to GB and put them on staff). Outside an impact WR I don't think any one player is going to push us over the top. It'll have to be Love playing a little sharper. Hopefully Morgan being healthy. A big shift in the OL with a competent Center. We led the league in drops last year, just middle of the pack would be huge. Lloyd just getting 5-7 touches would give a different look. It would have been great to get DK and fill out the WR core, but this offense was on fire in '23.

This is the last time I've seen Contreras actually comment on it. https://reviewingthebrew.com/posts/brewers-william-contreras-reportedly-open-to-extension-talks Yes, he'd be expensive. That doesn't mean he's not open to one. 3 years remaining, he has a long way to make it to Free Agency. You could easily put together a 5 year deal that buys out arby, 2 years of FA for ~23-25 and lock him up long term(and increase his trade value). It's got a whole lot to do with it. Without wanting to, without actually offering, there is zero chance. We said Yelich was gone(and in hindsight...)...I'm sure there were people who were skeptical of Chourio taking a deal. when he could have hit FA by ~26-27 years old. Wanting to do it means you...could do it. Not wanting to and not offering means there's 0 chance it will get done. I don't know what his offers were, so I can't say he took the most money. I can say he said he was willing to take less money to stay in Milwaukee. Both Will Sammon and Katie Woo reported Adames came right out and said he'd take less to stay here and we didn't make a serious offer. And that's fine. I'm not even complaining about it. I'm saying just resigning outselves to the fact that we can't sign anyone who has had MLB success...especially when these guys play a demanding position and are 3-4 years away from FA(unlike Adames who was on the precipice of FA...as was Burnes in Baltimore). As for Burnes, doesn't seem to matter who his agent was. He took less to play near his home. He also said he was open but nobody had approached him in Milwaukee(this after his Cy Young season and was with 4 years left). Signing an extension months away from being a FA vs being 3-4 years away and in your final year are, again two VERY different things. You've bet on yourself for 6 years, it's easier to do so for one more year. Had we approached Burnes a year before arbitration, maybe he's 2 years of team control. And maybe we still trade him. Tampa does this a bit. Extending doesn't mean you can't still move him, it means when you do, you're not trading a rental...and of course you're assuming far more risk. That's our downside. We also could have approached Woodruff and signed him. We always beat around the bush on this and pretend these players don't want to sign or are unwilling. Hard to know when you don't offer them. We made no offer to Woodruff until he was injured(at least none since 2020). None to Burnes, we reportedly made an offer to Adames of 5/100 on top of his last year(so 6/112.5). He got 7/185. This "not interested," in signing an extension was also applied to Burnes, but Burnes basically said Milwaukee couldn't or wouldn't pay him what he was worth...and then he may have said after his last year here he wasn't interested in an extension(but not when people were saying as much). But we've been acting like we just can't sign Contreras since he got here. Sean Murphy was the best catcher in that deal. He signed at the same point Contreras is now. 6/73M. 4/9/15/15/15/15 and a TO for 15. JT Realmuto signed a 5/115 deal as a FA and he'd been a better catcher(high paid catcher in baseball)...and he'd been a better catcher than Contreras. You could go to Contreras with a deal offering deal for 5 years, 80M 6/10/14/20/20+2 TO at 25/25 with an 8M SB. That'd likely improve his value in a trade...presuming you could get him to agree to a NTC and if Quero does come back, you can deal Contreras and the team is getting team control of a catcher still in his prime years. He could set himself up for life, be one of the higher paid catchers and a center piece when all of our young prospects who are making the league minimum are coming up. Just say it's not a good move for the Brewers with a top 50 prospect in the system. Or that you think they want to maintain financial flexibility...or whatever. But to say he reportedly won't sign when we haven't offered and we have him on record at least one time talking about how this is home? It's like people don't believe in what the Brewers are doing. Yes, we're financially constrained. We do get a good chunk of money in revenue sharing and we should be able to spend over 105M, but...not the point. As long as they're run well and keep cycling in talent, I don't care. It's just these talking points over and over that seems like others feel like there's something more to defend.

It just means he's guaranteed 100K next year. The Brewers signed the same thing with Devin Williams and then opted out of that before trading him.

I don't really think it matters because....they're not going to spend the money he'll get and he's still got 3 years left, but this feels more like the rationale used for not extending him. The only time I've seen that he's talked about an extension or a possible extension, he was reportedly open to one and said Milwaukee "felt like home." Doesn't mean he's going to sign one or that we should offer him one, but there always seems to be there "rumors," where...'well, we didn't want to sign him anyway.

It felt like when Favre went to the Vikings, he went there JUST to spite the Packers. Rodgers, if he did it...I'd understand. He wants to go out a winner, they have Jones, a back he's familiar with, the same general offensive scheme, a good OL and of course the best WR, one o f the better #2 WRs and TJ Hockenson along with a good Def.

He cited a few players sacks, but if you can get Hendrickson for a 2nd...I think you have to do that. 15 sacks is DPOY caliber. We don't need that. The biggest off-season acquisition in Packers history...arguably is Reggie(certainly the best defensive player) and he was 32. If you knew Hendrickson would get 10 sacks, ~70 pressures and 20-30 QB hits a season for the next 2-3 years...of course you'd do that. You'd take TJ Watt right now for a 2nd... I think Gute does that in a heartbeat. I just can't imagine Cincy giving him up for "just" a 2nd...even as valuable as a 2nd is. I think he'll age like Calais Campbell did through ~33-34. That's worth a 2nd and a 4/100M deal. I just don't believe either of those, the compensation to the Bengals or Hendrickson is close to what he'd cost. If it was, I'd be with @HarryDoyleon this. You'd also have to consider how much better Rashan Gary could produce in this scenario. It's just like the OL that has to slide to the left to help Walker because Tom is so good. If you have Hendrickson, they're sliding to his side and now a 4 man pass rush can get home and if you're sending Cooper or a slot, you could have that overwhelming type defense. Speaking of Calais Campbell...he's still playing and at a high level. I'd definitely sign him for one year. 1/6.5M?

I don't think there's any chance you're getting Hendrickson for a "one year and lets talk" type deal. He's 30 and looking to cash in. I think you'd be paying closer to 4/130 with 85M GTD. Something in that range. Otherwise the Bengals would have just paid him. I also think it'll cost more than one 1st as it's been reported the Bengals asking price is "insane." I don't know what he'll end up going for and I'd be excited to get a guy like that...it just feels like a more desperate move than we need right now. A team like Buffalo make more sense to me. If you end up being right and it's "just" a 1st and a 1 year deal, I'd completely agree with you.

I thought he'd get closer to Jon Runyan Jr money. Not as much, but 3/24. 3.5M...to be a backup? Or maybe they'll move him to OG.

I knew Kevin and his Father a little bit. I was there when he won a State Title in Wrestling as a Sr. His old man...who I didn't know well, I'd coached against after College, but I was down on the floor, I was just the first guy he saw. He's a big dude also. Just grabbed me and...man, cracked my back good. I was ~6'1 210 and felt like a child when he did that! Pops was so proud. I can only imagine what the last...~15 years have been like! He's had an outstanding career though...

I think the WR group will step up, but I also don't see Gutey going after a 30 year old pass rusher for the draft capital it'd take and then the money. I think he's serious about winning, he's just not going to go LA Rams mode to do it. He's not going to be that aggressive but he's far more aggressive than Thompson and on balance, he's pretty aggressive in free agency. We're just going to have to try and figure it out with another signing or the draft, but I doubt he'd make a move like THAT. Also...do you want to give up at least one 1st+ and pay him 35M+ per year...at 30 years old?

Yeah, Heath was a nice young WR who provided depth, but he was never a guy who you worried about their snaps. Melton...I did think for a minute he was going to be a nice player but he didn't build off it. He looked like just a speedster coming out of College, he had a few big games, made some big catches while taking hits or running nice routes and then did nothing last year. I also agree about the FA WRs. I don't think they add a different component...though to be fair, I haven't really watched Cooper. Maybe he's still a big play threat. This is a big year for Musgrave. He started out well, Kraft was hurt and then he got hurt and he hasn't really been healthy enough to get going, but he can create a lot of mismatches. I really think this team can do a lot of things with Musgrave and Lloyd if healthy both add different dimensiions to this team.

Sure, but they were historically bad, they only got worse(and younger). There are enough ways to play around with the DL to be able to roster him for the year if they see anything there. Their degree of competition is likely trying to win 70 games but primarily trying to develop young talent.

I've never seen literally EVERY single expert...even those who are implementing the tariffs themselves and TELLING us they're going to cause "some temporary pain...hopefully," and people are just like, "nah, that's not it!"

Sure...but that's not at all what happpened. "Every single economic lever," was NOT pulled to avoid them "at the expense of the rest of the economy." The market had a few MASSIVE years while they were raising rates(which I've been told is a bigger deal than any tariffs) and what other levers were pulled? On top of that, the GDP was GROWING at roughly 3% the last two years, unemployment was extremely low and inflation was coming down near the 2% rate. Everything was moving in the right direction until...tariffs. Find a financial advisor, hedge fund manager, economist, anyone who thinks this ISN'T directly related to tariffs... You can't as tariffs are creating the uncertainty and they are causing the "corrections." So great GDP growth to a contracting economy. Higher interest rates Low unemployment The economy was humming along VERY smoothly...and then it took a hard right turn. Edit-It IS a blip...if this was the end. It doesn't appear that's the case. The Russell is down nearly 20% now(which is a "crash.") The other indexes are down...15-17%...approaching "crash" territory. And again, that this happened at a time when the economy was booming, it was GROWING(the BEST way to pay down the deficit if that's actually your aim). Finally, this is all happening while these companies are having EXCEPTIONAL earnings.

I don't think tariffs had anything to do with it🙃 No, I think until the 10 year comes down and Powell cuts interest rates, we're going to keep dealing with all of this nonsense. That's the primary goal(at least the short term one). But I figure we celebrate a green-ish day. Could be someone on the 3rd floor discarding their cat...but i think it's evidence how little good news it'd take to at least get the markets moving back in the right direction. Gonna be a REAL wild few years. At least 2.

Stokes has a really good rookie year for a rookie and when he was in press man coverage, but things just didn't fall right for him. I thought he had that big injuries that took away the middle two years(though he started his 2nd year poorly)...but once he and Watson went to Madison to work on their soft muscle issues. Both seemed to get over those. You can't prevent an ACL, so I thought that was a successful. I also thought he was a better just pure cover corner than anyone but Jaire...but he's just not physical and I think Hafley wants more physical CBs and it's just hard for CBs to cover when you're pass rush is poor and you need to send extra guys, you're putting guys on an Island and that's tough for the best CBs. I think Stokes could play really solid football with Crosby, Koonce. But, he's gone. 1/4 seems like a good bet, but we saw him losing snaps.

Man, CPI 2.8%...that's HUGE. 2.9 expected, 3 or more would have been VERY bad, but...2.8 Shelter accounting for 50% of the increase... Energy down .2% over the trailing 12 months. Nice little break and some actual...good news. Good-ish news. Market should have a green day...some blood pressure cooling off. Who knows what will be announced today or...what will be coming back at us, but should be good...especially in the "MAG 7," and then whatever nickname they gave to the 11 when they added AVGO, TSM, BRK and...whoever else.