BrewerFan

I think the Mets are going to give him a massive deal. Not 300M...unless Cohen just overrules Stearns, but I thought I remember reports it was Yamamoto or bust for them this year and then they were looking forward to this class with Soto...Burnes, Cole has an opt out. That could be interesting based on what he does the rest of this year. Spotrac puts him at 7/166. I really think the Brewers would have done that if they could have. That seems ~60-100M short to me over roughly the same number of years, but if you were to get him for 7 and 30 AAV, I think you'll have a healthy market. I'd take Hou, SD, probably LAD out because they just don't need him. ATL is losing Fried(I think he's near as good a bet over the next 5 years or so as anyone) but I don't see them paying market value for a top-of-the-market pitcher...though they have cost certainty nearly everywhere else on their roster. NYM, ChC, Boston at some point I'd think would get back in the big spending, and how about staying in the market he's in. Either with the Os or the Nats? Both can spend money, they have a ton of young talent(the Nats are a year or 2 away from really breaking out IMO).

Yeah...maybe. Or maybe he's just pressing. I'm really not worried about him. He's got a pretty good track record of being a good hitter. I would kinda like to see Black in the lineup at 1B though. Let Hoskins DH(I haven't even glanced at SD's pitching, so maybe they've got a lefty going and that wouldn't make sense).

I also think we need to use more context when talking about players like Hoskins. WAR isn't as important to me as WRC+, OPS...he's a DH/1B. They're not going to have 5-6 WAR unless they're among the best hitters in the game. Ohtani was worth 6 WAR last year(I think that's just his DH WAR not including the pitching). So 2 WAR for a DH/1B, that's fine. But maybe we remember this when we're "all" talking about how cheap someone is and how they should go out and spend on a Chapman or whoever it may be. I'm good with this deal...I think we'd probably be just fine with Black playing 1st(with Bauers at times). To answer the original question, yeah, I think he's pretty good. I think players ebb and flow and if the Brewers bring him back next year or he picks up his option, that's fine. It's 1 or 2 years. We can weather that if it's not elite.

Yeah...I like it. I've got what some would probably call an irrational fear of Devin Williams(even before this year) and Payamps hasn't been as good, so I'm all for getting another dominant reliever.

I think they're slim and none. The Bucks can't combine salaries...and Middleton looked great last year...in the playoffs, but also injured before that, so I don't think the value is there where it makes sense. Dame has openly talked about being in bad shape because of the potential for a trade, not wanting to get hurt. I don't think we'll win another title, but I think our best chance is to just stick with this core, let them play together a bit more, give AJJ a lot more PT, hopefully, find a contributor, and maybe pick up a guy like Jevon Carter(not him, someone like him) who can defend the ball handler...and you just hope you're healthy. The 2nd apron and the talent Giannis, Dame, Khris, and even Lopez when he's used a bit more efficiently offensively... I think the best bet is just hoping it comes together one more time. That's just my opinion. I don't see a team trading a Brandon Ingram type player for Murray or Dame.

Yeah, I thought it was more of a issue of Turang, Adames plus several other options at 2B rather than them not thinking he could play 2nd as well as 3rd. Not that he's an ideal fit at either...but I think he's probably more suited to 2B. He can move, he's got range, he's got decent hands and his arm is as erratic as Brittany Spears...so it could work better at 2B than 3B.

Really? He does this nonsense every few months? Makes up a completely ridiculous narrative(or just lies, not sure which), and then...this is "pandemonium?" Maybe the Ghostbusters will come in and kill the Marshmallow Man next, eh Ulice? "It's Pandemonium out there." LOL... I'm just pissed the Brewers refused to sign Burnes when he begged for a contract, but then Mark said, "no Corbin, I care more about Soccer and I'm not giving you one, I don't care how cheap it is."

Ya know...we're pretty good at taking College arms and getting the most out of him. Give me a guy with absolutely filthy stuff from the cold who is wild over a guy with better command at the College level...every day of the week. If the guy wasn't wild, he would be a top 5-10 pick. Take him, get him in the lab and see if you can turn him into a Burnes or Woodruff. Two guys who had similar or I believe in Woody's case worse SO/BB ratios. Bottom line, this kid had a scholarship to play WR, he's STILL got a Whip of ~1.2 and a BAA that's obscenely low and his FB/Slider is comped to Skenes. I may be dating myself, but I'm Meg Ryan in the diner scene of "When Harry Met Sally." Difference is...I'm not faking it! Just thinking about Misiorowski, Brecht, Knoth, Letson(who'll be throwing upper 90s as he fills out). Throw Ashby or Gasser in there(likely the later) with the young bats? Now I'm down the rabbit hole, but a wild Paul Skenes, 101 FB, dominant slider, elite athlete, command that needs work+Milwaukee Brewers= 1st rd pick.

JJ Hardy would like to have a word. I would probably take Willy, but to say he's by far the 2nd best? Hardy was...pretty damn good with the glove and he had some power. They're pretty close and both well behind 'The Kid.' But I think fans do this when talking about extensions. People were talking about how Burnes wasn't an ace, he wasn't Cy Young candidate...despite finishing in the top 6- 7 in Cy Young voting and leading the league in WHIP last year, and everyone outside Milwaukee referring to him as an ace.

Yeah...so what? You're buying the right to have the team options. You could probably get Ortiz for 6/50 and then a couple of 15M options. And that's probably a bit on the high end for a couple of months of solid production, but it's a helluva lot different from being locked in through 35 and...again, do you think Adames is taking a 5-year deal? I'd guess 7 years and with the dearth of FAs this year, maybe 8-years. I really love Willy. I don't think you need to be a "great" hitter in order to get a long-term deal, I think being a good hitter, hitting for power, and being an elite SS is enough on its own and I think Willy is worth the 25M over 7-8 years that he'll get. He's been better than Swanson. He's a 3-5 WAR a year guy. I just don't think he's worth it for the Brewers who already have Turang and Ortiz. I think when WE sign players, it should be...Turang, Ortiz...Quero maybe(not now, lets see how it goes). I said Uribe earlier this year and at the price of a reliever, that'd hardly have been crippling(even in retrospect). But one of the top FAs and a SS on top of that? We just don't have that type of money to make that move and keep any semblance of financial flexibility. I also strongly disagree he hasn't been good the last two years. He's been very good. That's why he'll get paid. ~8 WAR those two years he hasn't been that good. But I also don't think you're going to be pleasantly surprised by Willy moving forward. He'll be a great teammate, defender, hit for power, he'll walk...but he'll also chase and go through prolonged slumps and that's just who he is.

Willy at 29 signing a 7-8 year deal for at least 25M AAV Ortiz at 26 signing a 6-year deal for maaybe 60M with 2 option years at ~12-16 It's not the same thing at all. Nobody is saying you can't sign a player into their 30s. The point is you don't sign players who will be in their mid or even back half of their 30s at the top of the market value. To put a finer point on it, give me a 26-year-old on a 7-year deal team-friendly deal EVERY time over a 29-year-old on a 7-year 25AAV deal. LOL...C'mon Wieguy...you know this.

No, me neither. And I appreciate this article. I love seeing those big spin rates or exit velocities...but I also don't really care when a guy doesn't have those underlying metrics, but he has other tools that will make him valuable. I might do him for Crochet, but...I keep going back to the issue of how many innings will you get out of Crochet? He's close to 1/3rd of all the innings he's thrown since HS having been thrown this year. So in the 8 years since HS, nearly 1/3 of the stress has come this year...and you'll want another 100IP out of him I'd think. Finally, I'm just over the positional power component. We're the Brewers. If we can find a Catcher who can hit for power, but our 1B only hits .280/.380/.420 with 15 HRs, I am totally fine with that. Especially as I believe Black will be an outstanding defender at 1st. That's a phone call away. Plus, the kid was drafted last season. This is his first full season in MiLB and he's been outstanding. I don't see this as a bad thing, it's just the opposite. It shows what a great pick he was. He was a "safe" signing in Rd2 last year. An under-slot signing from a small school so we could go and sign Pratt, Bitonti, Chambers, Letson, etc...and he's been outstanding.

Maybe the first year I was old enough to really follow the Brewers closely and understand what was going on...Cal and Listach carried that team as the two young guys(aside from Yount and Molly of course)! A great year...and a horrible year(Bando). But a memorable one...

Yup. I mean, to the OPs point, if he's willing to take 5/130, THAT is a deal I think would be a good, fair deal for the Brewers. But I see him #4 on top FA lists behind Soto, Burnes and Pete Alanso. The chasm between what the OP thinks he's sign for and what he'll likely sign for seems pretty wide. And then you've got Turang and Ortiz. Pretty damn good backup plans.

So many flaws in this...in my opinion, but lets start here; What is there to suggest we haven't been? The Brewers seem like a pretty serious organization. They've talked about an extension with Adames. Yeah, this is NOT what happened. Just for starters, Attanasio is going to be involved in those discussions, but for those who follow the Brewers closely, they understand Attanasio is now MUCH more removed from the day to day decision making. While he would obviously play a role in giving Adames what will likely be a ~7-8 year and ~200M deal, that'd start with Arnold and staff. They DO have two of their best young players who play Shortstop and the Brewers have a finite amount of resources given their TV deals are worth HUNDREDS of MILLIONS less per year than the likes of the Dodgers who...apparently can figure out things the Brewers can't. As for the Brewers just dismissing Adames and this quote you came up with why they didn't try and sign him because "He had another year left on his contract," who are you quoting and please cite the source? Attanasio; Yeah, the Brewers also realize his value and the Dodgers had tried to trade for Adames well before Betts went down with an injury. The Brewers said no(they were serious about him). The Dodgers aren't special in seeing Adames value, they just have a TV deal that pays them...what, 8.5B over 25 years whereas the Brewers get ~30-35M a year and that's up in the air with Bally declaring bankruptcy. I can assure you, if the Brewers had 200-300M more in TV revenue...their payroll would be higher and then THEY'D be one of those teams that "realize his value." First of all, this is absurd. Everyone, including Attanasio has talked about Adames importance as a leader. Second, circling back to an earlier point, Attanasio isn't the one making these calls. When Hader was traded, Stearns called him and he did clear it with him, but Attanasio looked as upset as anyone. It didn't save money. It DID get us a really good-looking young pitcher, then led to a superstar catcher, a really good HL reliever, and a 3rd reliever who has good stuff. May never develop, but you get Gasser, Contreras, Payamps...not to mention Hader was just melting down at the time, hard to point to that trade. As for the "team morale," sure. The Brewers have said that was a mistake. I think that's a bogus argument personally. They were playing poor baseball the previous two months and they played the same after the trade. It was a team that basically had a hot start and...that's it. They were roughly ~500. I don't think we're trading Adames though...but frankly, I'd consider it. If the Dodgers want to REALLY pay for him, they want to give up a Bobby Miller and Kyle Hurt, I'm gonna make that deal. As you point out, this is a young team. The window is just opening. So getting a couple of guys who can be TOR type arms, that's worth it when you have two guys who can slide back to SS, their natural positions. But short of some outrageously lopsided trade(that I think any team would make)...I don't think there's been any indication they're shopping Adames. I cannot express how little I care about Attanasio investing in soccer teams. It's totally irrelevant. Did the Brewers slash payroll after those investments? Are you asking him to run the team at a loss for years on end and that he shouldn't invest in other things but the Brewers? I'd also like to remind people, the man has the right to do as he chooses and he IS spending money on the Brewers, the money the state spent for the stadium wasn't altruism, it was so they didn't lose that tax base and so it didn't kill the businesses around it, but that's beside the point. We ARE the smallest market, we have among the cheapest tickets, but the BIGGEST issue...TV MONEY. We don't have enough eyes in this market to get the type of deals other teams do. That's ALWAYS going to put us at a financial disadvantage. Yet...we ARE still spending. I'd also like to just reiterate the fact ONE more time Mark Attanasio DOES NOT OWN 100% or even 50% of the Brewers. He's the principal owner, not even a majority owner. I believe he owns ~38% of the team, but I may be off a point or two either way. I would be willing to make a BET that if Adames could be signed for 5/130, he'd be signed. The 30M in incentives, that'd be included. You'd be at 5 years and 160M....and I'd guess Adames is looking for 200M over 8 years. Players at his age generally don't want a 5 year deal so they hit FA again just in time for their age-35 season. They generally want to 7-8 years at that AAV knowing that the last ~3 years or so the deal will be a bad contract. It's also worth noting the Brewers have 3 players in their current IF whose natural position is SS. Who will end up playing SS in the future. Adames is 3rd in WAR for this season behind a rookie and a 2nd-year player in Ortiz and Turang. Probably something worth considering before you go out and spend 200M on Adames...as much as we all like him. We've tried...again, as I pointed out, they made "many offers," to Adames. As for this perception of the organization, can you tell me which team doesn't view players as a commodity? Hell, a business that doesn't treat employees as a commodity? That's not mutually exclusive with valuing dedication and performance. They've valued those. Where's the plea to Willy to take less money than he could get on the open market to sign this 5/130 deal with incentives? Love to see Willy stay in Milwaukee. He has to be willing to(he did not go and ask and the Brewers just ignored his pleas for a contract) and it has to make sense for the Brewers. I'll ALWAYS be a Willy fan...and maybe they can work something out. Just seems pretty unlikely given he's probably a top ~5 FA with Soto and Burnes two of those above him. He's going to get a LOT more than 130...IMO. And can we please stop talking about the Soccer clubs as if there's ANY correlation?

Just one more thing to at least consider...it's AAA. You often see pitchers focus more on the process than the outcome in AAA. At the next level, it's all about results and doesn't matter how you get there. When you're working your way back, it's obviously a mix. Maybe he's focusing on his...slider command in situations where he could get an out with a FB(edit, just a hypothetical, maybe it's the opposite, whatever). Just a thought. Could be totally wrong as he seems to be in a position where he's trying to just get right, but...that's always something to consider when looking at MiLB stats. Either way, I think we've seen enough from him to make a pretty educated guess that he'd be a very good reliever. As a long man or a specialist. You don't ever want to give up on a special arm too early. If 12 months from now he's struggling(as you said) then you re-evaluate.

Right...I see zero reason to give up on him. Shoulders take a while to come back from and he's under team control and cheap for a while. If he's "only" a guy who can throw a couple of innings out of the pen, fine. But he was just a guy who had an outstanding start for us. I'm also just not sure what we're going to get for him that'll be worth it.

There is a difference and I'm saying I think there were quite a few people who thought Burnes would be an ace. And he was #46 headed into 2019 on BA(likely higher on many mid-season, but not going to spend a lot of time looking). But as I said, I agree with you concerning Hall. He's had a little bit of a start-and-stop type of development and he was a prep arm, so it's a longer road as a prospect, he's got great stuff though and I don't think the Brewers are making the Burnes trade unless they really liked Hall and thought he had a good chance to start. I'm not all that worried about him. Get him healthy, get him out there for 2-3-4 innings at a time as he builds his arm strength back and the Brewers have a pretty solid track record at this point of getting the most out of their young arms.

I don't think there's a shot the NFL goes for that. One of the driving forces behind the NFL's success has been NOT allowing the likes of Dallas, New York, etc...the largest markets to negotiate their own TV deals. I'm pretty certain it'd require the owners voting to approve something like that and there's no shot you'd get approval for that(especially given Jones BS around the stadium and lying about the luxury seats and then coming back with his hand out and needing a loan when they went over budget, but really any owner).

So his stupidity and running his mouth has cost him a year or service time and....what, 600K? Would have made 740K this year...now he's on the AAA salary. I don't think he's sent down if he's not facing a 5-game-suspension, but perhaps I'm wrong about that, he wasn't dominating. Still bullish on him being the future closer for the Brewers or at least a dominant reliever, but needs to refine a few things and grow up.

I do remember that...pretty vividly. I remember there was an inordinate amount of confidence in Burnes and Woodruff. And when he was coming off that disastrous season, we still saw absolutely filthy stuff AND we'd seen him dominate in longer stretches. And I also remember he wasn't rated as highly as a prospect because he came up so relatively fast, but he was a top-50 prospect 2 years after being drafted. And he was fairly refined by then. He wasn't a Misiorowski-type prospect who have that huge boom or bust, he was more refined and a guy who just had a very high ceiling. I'm in total agreement about waiting on Hall and allowing him to take a normal progression and that a rough start going from the pen to the rotation can be tough and there's NO reason to give up or really be down on him after such a short sample size. I agree with your larger point. But, specific to Burnes, I don't think I can recall a fanbase that was so united behind a player who was struggling and confident that he'd figure it out. Burnes was just giving in and had a hugely inflated HR-to-FB ratio, he had a BABIP that...not even looking I'd be shocked if it wasn't .370-.400. In fairness, I wasn't following Brewers Twitter or other social media sites at the time, so when you saw he wasn't thought of highly or as an ace or whatever, if you're talking about outside this community...then sure. But this board was particularly bullish on Burnes, Fangraphs and other sites seemed to remain pretty bullish on him. But...the larger point, the Brewers have to be patient with Hall and try and let him work out any issues FIRST as a starter. Even if it's only in 3-4 inning stretches early, he's got a great arm and it just takes a while for things to click for different players.

No shot...IMO. I wouldn't consider that at...all.

I don't want to trade the players we're talking about for them, but, anyone who's seen Kopech pitch has to at least understand why people would want to see him in Milwaukee the next year and a half. He's just got incredible arm talent. And Eloy...as a DH only and the #6 hitter in this lineup...I get the appeal. You have a BP with Uribe, Kopech, Payamps, MeGill...and then Williams coming back, that could be an insanely talented pen. But, to your point, given the actual production, not just the tools, I'm not giving up Wilken, Boeve or anyone on that tier, much less higher. I'd probably not give up much more than Brown Jr.

I've long been a Turang believer...I thought he was a Trea Turner type of talent(though...I never thought he was going to be THAT good, more like Trea -25 BA, -70 SLG, but the .370 OBP, great defense, etc...etc...). Now, there's a whole garbage bin of guys I liked that I was wrong about(need Joey Wiemer to get going so he doesn't end up there) but...it's almost more fun when you follow a guy, he struggles, people lose faith and then he explodes onto the scene!

It does feel like that. 1-Bone spurs 2-Tightness and sore 3-Forearm soreness 4-Injections and rehab 5-Oh well, didn't work. Be back in 12 months and another 6 to get all the way back...and now he's in arbitration. That's a wildly negative take, but...it's somehow my take at the moment.