I believe I read on this forum that the teams in the top 10 of payroll have a roughly 75% chance of making the playoffs, where the other 20 only have about a 25% chance of making the playoffs. You are probably basically right that a third of league maybe only has a 5% chance. That's the big difference in the NFL. At the beginning of any season, I'd say you have only a very small handful of teams with virtually no shot at making the playoffs, and mainly these are due to mismanagement (Raiders, Redskins), or being in obvious rebuild mode (Lions, Bucaneers). Of course, the difference is they have more playoff spots in the NFL, too.