Jack Stern

Seeing the same righthander who stymied them a week ago, the Brewers took greater advantage of opportunities for damage in the follow-up meeting. Improved swing decisions catalyzed the sortie. Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers enjoyed a much-needed blowout win on Tuesday night, opening their series against the Braves in Atlanta with a 10-0 showing behind big nights from Willy Adames and Colin Rea. It was Milwaukee’s first double-digit run output since Jun. 7, and seven of those runs scored against starter Bryce Elder, who subdued the Brewers a week earlier. When Elder tossed 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball at American Family Field on Jul. 30, he did so by pounding the bottom of the strike zone, coaxing chases below the zone from Brewers hitters and inducing weak contact when they put the ball in play. They swung at 34% of pitches outside the zone and managed a hard-hit rate of just 35.3%. It was a different story Tuesday night. Elder was not nearly as sharp as he was in his previous outing, and the Brewers made him pay with a pair of adjustments. Unlike last time, they chased fewer sliders below the zone and pounced on Elder’s sinker. In Milwaukee, Brewers hitters chased nine of the 17 sliders Elder threw out of the zone. On Tuesday, they chased four of 14. It helped that Elder’s command of the pitch was worse – he spiked several in the dirt during the first inning – but the Brewers still deserve credit for laying off. They spit on a handful of sliders in locations they had chased days prior. While the Brewers were more passive when they saw spin out of Elder’s hand, they jumped on fastballs. They swung at 58.1% of fastballs he threw in the zone on Tuesday, compared to 52% the week before. The approach was evident from the get-go, when Brice Turang singled on a sinker up the middle for a single on Elder’s first pitch of the evening. The aggressive strategy against fastballs made sense. Opponents have hit .339 and slugged .504 against Elder’s sinker and four-seamer this year. The best way to beat him is by ambushing his worst pitches. Perhaps the greatest example of the two adjustments in action was William Contreras’s first at-bat, which ended in a triple to open the scoring. Contreras took a pair of low sliders (the first of which was in the dirt) to get ahead in the count, took a mighty hack on a sinker that he fouled back, then drove a four-seamer off the right-field wall on the following pitch to score Turang. Adames joined the party next, blasting the first sinker he saw in the zone to dead center for his first of two home runs. The game was a return to form for the Brewers, who enjoyed success at the plate for most of the first half by mixing scrappy, high-on-base profiles with power threats in the middle of the lineup. It started with a pair of changes in response to a quiet showing days earlier. This is the kind of flexibility, rapid learning, and ruthless, relentless attack they'll need to finish the season in style. View full article

Jake Bauers has flown under the radar as a productive left-handed hitter since switching from a leg kick to a toe tap. Now, he's getting a chance to give the Brewers a boost in the middle of the order. Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK It was a rough week for the Brewers’ offense to close out July, but one bright spot was a series of notable contributions from Jake Bauers. Starting in left field against the Marlins on Sunday, Bauers erased an early 1-0 deficit with a go-ahead home run in the bottom of the first inning. He would reach base twice more on a fifth-inning triple and a seventh-inning walk, finishing his day 2-for-3 with a pair of runs scored. Bauers has hit .216/.321/.394 this year, which translates to a pedestrian 103 wRC+. That season line may not be the best representation of his current status as a hitter, though. Through May 5, Bauers hit .194/.260/.358, with a ghastly 39.7% strikeout rate against a 6.9% walk rate. During the team’s road trip to Kansas City around then, though, Christian Yelich recommended he permanently trade his leg kick for a toe tap. Yelich made the switch for good last year, and it’s played a pivotal role in his resurgence after three underwhelming seasons. “He was talking me through how he thought I would be more consistent with a toe tap, because he saw some of the stuff that I was struggling with that he felt he struggled with before he switched over,” Bauers said. After Yelich and hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Ozzie Timmons worked with Bauers on implementing the change in the batting cage, he debuted it in the second game of the series and felt an immediate impact. “My first at-bat with it in Kansas City, I ended up hitting the ball pretty hard, line drive into right field. After that, I was like, ‘All right, let me commit to it and see where it takes me.’” That kicked off a 12-day stretch in which he slugged .719, with six extra-base hits, including three home runs. “As soon as I did it, I could feel the difference. I felt my body getting more consistently into spots that you want to be in, especially when guys are throwing 97 consistently," he said. "Once I saw the tape and saw where I was getting to and how consistently on-time I was, it was pretty easy to convince me to make the full-time switch.” Since doing so, Bauers has hit .227/.347/.411, with six home runs in 166 plate appearances for a solid 117 wRC+. His hard-hit rate has jumped from 38.5% with the leg kick to 45.7% with the toe tap. The new load has corrected some of the side effects of previous adjustments, to tap into his raw power. Those changes helped Bauers tie his career high in home runs last year, but also inflated his strikeout rate to a career-worst 34.9%. “I never really had a lot of movement going on in my swing before getting to the big leagues,” he said. “Over the process of trying to fix up and use my lower half a little bit more to generate a little bit more power, the moves became bigger, so I started seeing the ball worse.” After reducing that movement, Bauers says he feels more in control of his body and is tracking pitches much better. “Visually and mentally, when I just think about the way I was seeing the ball before and the way I’m seeing the ball now, it’s night and day.” The quieter load and improved vision have helped him mitigate two of his greatest weaknesses from early in the season. When Bauers used the leg kick, opponents could beat him with hard stuff inside and low breaking balls, because he was trying to compensate for poor timing. He chased 29.5% of hard pitches (four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters) he saw outside the strike zone and whiffed on 50% of his swings against breaking balls. “When you’re late, your body’s going to try to get you to the right spot without you even knowing what you’re doing,” he explained. “With that comes a little bit of head movement, and any kind of head movement at the wrong time and to the wrong spot is going to make pitches – especially spin down – look like you can handle it. “Because you’re not recognizing it early enough, you’re not able to lay off those pitches because you have to commit early.” Since switching to the toe tap, Bauers is chasing just 11.6% of hard pitches outside the zone and has slashed his whiff rate on breaking balls to 33.6%. “I don’t know how his numbers compare to his past,” Pat Murphy said, “but I’ll bet you his ball-strike [discernment] is as good as it’s ever been.” Bauers’s 17.9% chase rate since May 7 ranks in the 97th percentile of hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, and he’s walked at a 13.2% clip in that span. “He’s quietly had this type of year for us,” Murphy said. “He hasn’t had the same number of opportunities other people have, but he’s put together some really good [plate appearances]. It’s become kind of a marquee of his to go deep in the count and draw walks.” Those opportunities are increasing. Bauers entered the Marlins series having started in just five of Milwaukee’s 17 games in July. He’s started four times since Yelich hit the injured list with another flare-up of his chronic back injury. Yelich's is expected to be a prolonged absence, leaving the Brewers needing a productive left-handed bat in the middle of the order. Bauers is getting a chance to help in that regard. He hit cleanup in his productive game against the Marlins, and Murphy placed him in the three-hole in the Brewers’ next two matchups against a right-handed starter. “You obviously can’t replace Yelich and all that he brings,” Murphy said. “But I think it’s unfair to Sal [Frelick] to have to put him there, so I was really hoping Jake could jump into this.” A left-handed hitter with a strong on-base percentage and some pop would have been a welcome trade deadline acquisition for the Brewers. That’s the kind of player Bauers has been since making his mechanical adjustment. He won’t replicate Yelich’s production, nor is he being asked to. Bauers has curtailed his strikeout rate from its extreme heights early in the season, but it remains high enough to cap his upside. However, he’s settled nicely into a productive three-true-outcomes profile from the left side. Bauers can still help this lineup in a notable way, and he’ll get that opportunity down the stretch. “He’s earned it,” Murphy said. View full article

Joe Ross re-joined the Brewers' rotation on Tuesday night, but had the same problems that plagued him throughout his pre-injury stint. There might be a better role for the righthander that can maximize his strengths, if the Brewers are willing to explore it. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Joe Ross’s first big-league start since late May was a tale of two outings. The righthander’s first voyage through the Braves lineup was successful. He retired the first eight men he faced, notched a pair of strikeouts, and held hitters to an average exit velocity of 85.3 mph. Things flipped in the third inning, once leadoff hitter Jarred Kelenic stepped into the box against Ross a second time. Each of the next five batted balls was hard-hit, and four went for hits. Atlanta tallied four runs against Ross in the inning, and Kelenic would add a fifth on a solo homer in the fourth. That abrupt turn for the worse continued a trend from Ross’s first nine starts, before he hit the injured list with a lower back injury. He’s held opponents to a modest .694 OPS when facing them for the first time in a game this year. That figure jumps to .794 the second time, and .950 the third. Ross’s greatest roadblock in effectively navigating a lineup multiple times over is his limited arsenal, which was a concern heading into the regular season. He has thrown five different pitch types this year, but his two-seamer and slider are his most developed offerings and account for over 70% of his pitches thrown. His changeup has taken some steps forward, but his four-seamer has a poor shape (13.3 inches of induced vertical break, 6.1 inches of horizontal run), and he’s only thrown his curveball 19 total times. The lack of options rears its head in multiple ways. It means hitters have fewer threats to keep track of and adjust to when seeing Ross, but it also leaves him with little room to adjust on the mound. He lacks the adaptability of someone like Colin Rea, who can tweak the usage of his seven-pitch mix from one outing to the next based on the matchup; his feel for certain pitches on a given day; and the swings he sees the first time through the order. If Ross is missing his best two-seamer or slider, things can fall apart quickly. Exacerbating the issue is that Ross loses his best stuff quickly, after (typically) starting strong. It’s not uncommon for a starter to lose some velocity as his pitch count increases, but it affects Ross especially early. His fastballs average north of 95 mph on average in the first inning, often touching 96 and 97, but dip a tick by the second. From there, it’s a steady decline as the outing progresses. It was a similar story against the Braves. Ross averaged 95.6 mph with his fastballs in his first inning of work. When they saw him a second time, he was down to 94.5. That slight loss of velocity can make a world of difference for a pitcher with unremarkable fastball shapes and few offspeed choices. These ingredients make for a pitcher who is at a disadvantage when asked to face an order multiple times in a game and provide length. That’s how it’s played out so far for Ross. The takeaway here is not that Ross lacks the ability to be an effective big-league pitcher but that he is miscast in his current role. Ross’s sinker-slider combo has looked strong in the first innings of his outings and could be effective in shorter stints. Slotting him into a bullpen role and tasking him with focusing on his two best weapons for 20-to-40 pitches at a time could be the best way to maximize his stuff. It could help him sit in that 95-97 range more consistently and lessen the need to use his shakier pitches. Pat Murphy would not offer specifics after Ross’s start on how he’ll organize his pitching staff going forward, but with Frankie Montas joining the rotation, the best course may be to slot Ross into the multi-inning bullpen role that Jakob Junis filled upon his return from the injured list. His stuff could play well in that capacity and boost a relief corps that has shown some cracks in recent weeks. Going all the way back to spring training, the Brewers have viewed Ross exclusively as a starter. It might be that sticking to that was part of the conversations that led to him signing with the team, or that they worry he would not be able to stay healthy or effective without the predictability of a five-day schedule. but in either case, it's time to revisit the discussion. View full article

It was a modest trade deadline for the Brewers. Given the club's consistent approach to trades, the status of this year's club, and a seller-friendly market, that was always the most likely outcome. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports In the most basic sense, the Brewers checked off the top item on their trade deadline wishlist: innings. Matt Arnold told Milwaukee media last week that length was still his club's most pressing need, even after acquiring righthander Aaron Civale from the Rays earlier this month. In the following days, he added another length option in Frankie Montas, and a controllable reliever with upside, in Nick Mears. "By and large, yeah," Arnold said, when asked if he felt the Brewers accomplished what they were hoping to at the deadline. "First of all, I think we believe in the group we have first and foremost, and then the ability to add multiple starters with Civale and Frankie, and also a reliever that we like a lot in Mears, I think we accomplished what we had hoped to this deadline." Still, some fans may perceive Milwaukee's moves as underwhelming. While Mears has the S-tier stuff to bolster the back end of the bullpen in 2024 and beyond, Civale and Montas are not moving needles in the rotation. There's a case to be made that the Brewers could receive the same value by promoting a minor-league arm or making a smaller acquisition as they will from Montas. Was Milwaukee's deadline underwhelming? Sure. Was it surprising? No. This was not a favorable year to be in the market for starting pitching at the deadline. In many cases, the lack of true sellers drove up prices for available arms. Yusei Kikuchi, who has pitched to an 85 ERA+ this year, went for a trio of high-level Astros prospects. Trevor Rogers, who comes with two more years of control beyond 2024 but has an 87 ERA+ since the start of 2022 while pitching with diminished stuff, cost the Orioles former second-round draft picks Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. In other cases, the prices were high enough to keep marquee arms like Garrett Crochet from moving at all. The Brewers also could have used a left-handed bat to bolster a lineup that will miss Christian Yelich for an extended period of time, but movement was sparse on that front. Most of the potential fits (Joc Pederson, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, and Brandon Lowe) stayed put. The approach at this time of year under Arnold (and David Stearns before him) has remained consistent. The Brewers attempt to strike a delicate balance of today and tomorrow with each acquisition. The club's goal is to win a World Series, but it maintains that the best vehicle to a championship is to make the postseason as many years as possible, with the expectation that they will eventually be the beneficiaries of the short-sample randomness that contributes to a successful October and November run. At the end of the day, this year's market was incompatible with the front office's approach, and there was no motivation to deviate from it based on the club's status. With a seven-game lead in the NL Central when the deadline hit, Milwaukee has an 89% chance of making the postseason and an 83% chance of winning the division. The hope is that adding quantity in the rotation will keep their floor high enough to secure that playoff berth. View full article

The Brewers exchanged some of their 40-man roster depth for rotation help, bringing in a rental starting pitcher from a division rival. Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers have reportedly swung their second trade for pitching in just over 48 hours, with Robert Murray breaking the news that rental starter Frankie Montas is coming to Milwaukee from the division-rival Cincinnati Reds. Mark Feinsand reported that swingman Jakob Junis and outfielder Joey Wiemer are headed the other way in the deal. Montas has made 19 starts for the Reds this year, amassing a 5.01 ERA with similar estimators in 93 1/3 innings. That output has come on the heels of a 2023 campaign that was wiped out by shoulder surgery, save for a single relief appearance for the Yankees after an activation from the injured list in the final days of the season. The 31-year-old has returned from that injury having lost a tick of velocity from his heyday, but his four-seam fastball still averages 95.3 mph. His signature splitter has also held opponents to a .259 wOBA while inducing whiffs on 41% of swings. Montas has also added some lateral movement to his slider since he last threw it in a big-league game in 2022. Montas enjoyed a one-and-a-half-year run as one of baseball's more effective starters while pitching for the Athletics before his trade to New York, but his upside is rather limited at this stage of his career. His swing-and-miss, walk, and quality of contact rates are all well below the league average, and his trio of fastballs lack inspiring characteristics. The Brewers have had success in helping pitchers like Colin Rea and Bryse Wilson mix their four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters in a way that keeps hitters off-balance enough despite unassuming stuff. They acquired another pitchability type in Aaron Civale last month, and Montas falls into similar territory. To add Montas to their staff, the Brewers dipped into positions of depth on their 40-man and active rosters, a path that looked increasingly plausible as the deadline approached. Junis was effective as a swingman since returning from the injured list last month. Wiemer got off to a slow start in Triple-A Nashville after debuting a series of swing chances in spring training and slipped down the outfield depth chart in recent months. View full article

The Brewers have made their first trade deadline acquisition, snagging an underperforming reliever with some of the best stuff in baseball. Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers joined the increasing flurry of trade deadline action on Saturday afternoon, acquiring right-handed reliever Nick Mears from the Colorado Rockies for prospects Bradley Blalock and Yujanyer Herrera. "It came together really quickly," General Manager Matt Arnold said of the deal. "We had a lot of conversations over the last several days, and Nick Mears kept coming up in conversation. The ability to access that kind of arm, we felt like it made a lot of sense." Mears has split his five-year career between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Rockies, posting a 4.93 ERA (93 ERA+) in 95 innings. He carries an unsightly 5.56 ERA (81 ERA+) in 45 ⅓ innings for Colorado this year, but that mark does not accurately characterize the caliber of his stuff, nor how he has thrown the ball in 2024. The 27-year-old possesses a power fastball that averages 96.7 mph, with 17.3 inches of induced vertical break. It's frequently crossed the 20-inch threshold of elite ride. Due to Mears' near seven-foot extension, its average perceived velocity is 98 mph. Both his slider and curveball feature exceptional depth, and the former has induced whiffs on 52.6% of swings while holding opponents to a .253 wOBA. FanGraphs’ Stuff+ metric assigns Mears’ arsenal a 130 rating, which ranks 16th among 181 qualified relievers this year. That stuff has played better than his ERA would indicate. Mears has struck out 28.1% of hitters faced while allowing hard contact on just 29.6% of batted balls. His 2.59 FIP, 3.00 xERA, 3.37 SIERA, and 86 DRA- all indicate that he’s pitched like an above-average reliever. Mears is due for positive regression, but there is also room for the Brewers to channel even more of his upside. "Ultimately, we need real performance, not just underlying performance," Arnold said, "but we think there are a lot of ingredients to tap into here. He’s got electric stuff with a lot of upside." The Brewers could unlock that potential by optimizing Mears' secondary pitches. Because both of his breaking balls feature above-average depth with minimal lateral movement, there is a case to be made for consolidating the two into one pitch. Trevor Megill ditched his slider and turned his curveball into a shorter and harder breaking ball, and it became one of the driving factors behind his breakout as a high-leverage weapon. Mears is under club control through the 2027 season via arbitration, so he could be a long-term asset in the bullpen should things transpire how Milwaukee is hoping. "We’re excited about him hopefully helping us for the next several years," said Arnold, who added that Mears' precise role in the bullpen is yet to be determined. In return, the Brewers parted with Blalock, who worked as a starter in Double-A Biloxi but profiled best as a reliever in the long run. The 20-year-old Herrera made it to High-A Wisconsin while working in a hybrid role, posting a 2.91 ERA in 68 minor-league innings. It’s a solid acquisition for a Brewers team in need of innings. If Matt Arnold and company do not find the prices for starting pitching to their liking, it would not be surprising to see them load up the bullpen for the stretch run. View full article

This year's trade market is sparse on conventional sellers. Matt Arnold confirmed a few days before the deadline that it could prompt some unconventional swaps of players from contending rosters. The Brewers profile as a team that would make such a deal. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports The expansion of MLB’s playoffs to 12 teams has altered the structure of baseball’s midseason trade market the past couple of seasons. Only seven teams enter Saturday more than six games back of a postseason birth, and few clubs appear to be clear-cut sellers. Most are on the bubble, residing in the gray area between buyer and seller. The result is a trade deadline that is difficult for most clubs to navigate. Even teams like the Brewers that are firmly in the buyer category find themselves limited in the number of players they can acquire at a reasonable cost. Teams may have to become more creative to overcome that. Instead of the traditional seller-buyer agreement to exchange MLB talent and prospects, expect more teams to swap players from their big-league rosters. With more teams eyeing playoff spots at the deadline, more of the movement may involve teams trading from the deepest position of their roster to bolster the weakest. Matt Arnold confirmed in a media session on Friday that the Brewers have discussed such deals with other clubs. “I think there are a lot of teams [in contention] right now,” Arnold said. “We’ve had a lot of different conversations [discussing] need-for-need, surplus-for-surplus type of deals that could help teams in contention.” The Brewers have surpluses at multiple positions from which to draw. Even after Christian Yelich’s injury, the 40-man roster features a deep stable of outfielders. Fansided’s Robert Murray reported Friday that Garrett Mitchell’s name has been part of trade talks. The red flags in Mitchell’s offensive profile (namely his struggles to make contact and elevate the ball) and his already-checkered injury history can be used as reasons for and against a trade. He will not draw an exceptional return, but there’s a case to be made for moving him before risking it falling further. It’s more feasible to think the Brewers will trade one or multiple big-league relievers. Devin Williams and Joe Ross will likely return within the next few days, and DL Hall and J.B. Bukauskas may not be far behind. All four arms are on the 60-day injured list, so the Brewers must create space for them on the 40-man roster when they return. Non-optionable arms like Hoby Milner, Joel Payamps, and Rob Zastryzny could become supplementary pieces in trades. This is not to say that surplus-for-surplus moves will be Arnold’s main avenue for acquiring the starting pitcher or left-handed bat atop the Brewers’ shopping list. Rather, it would be unsurprising (if not expected) to see at least one big-league player moved in a deal. As for Milwaukee’s overarching approach to the deadline, little has changed. The front office constantly searches for upgrades but acts with a balance between present and future. “It's always a balance between today and tomorrow, right?” Arnold said. “It's how much we want to borrow from tomorrow to try to win today, and how do we do that responsibly." View full article

The Brewers have had some success with playing small ball this year, but they applied it unsuccessfully (and in extreme proportions) against the Cubs this week. That approach should not continue. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports After putting up eight runs in each of their first two games out of the All-Star break, the Brewers scored just five times in a three-game series win over the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Throughout those low-scoring affairs, they turned frequently to a play that has become a larger component of their offensive repertoire this year: the bunt. The Brewers are second in baseball this year in bunt attempts (90) and third in bunts laid down (41). Because their roster contains several speedy hitters who can put down solid bunts and beat them out for singles, it makes sense for them to try it more than most teams. A surprise bunt can also send an infield defense into a scramble and influence the positioning of those fielders in subsequent plate appearances. "But what’s amazing is, how many bunts where we put it out there, pull back, and how that leads to a result," Pat Murphy said on Sunday. "People don’t measure that; you can’t measure it. The immeasurable effect of the unsuccessful bunt attempt." Still, the bunt’s value is limited. Sacrifice bunting is detrimental to scoring chances in most situations, and a missed bunt can put a hitter down in the count. The Brewers have demonstrated such understanding for most of the season by choosing their spots well, except for a few ill-advised bunt attempts. That changed in Chicago. Pat Murphy has said he does not view the bunt as a “major offensive weapon,” but that’s how the Brewers tried to use it. They attempted to bunt eight times in three games, including four times in a 1-0 win on Tuesday night. Only one of those attempts produced the desired outcome: an infield single by Garrett Mitchell to lead off the sixth inning against a cruising Jameson Taillon in Tuesday’s bunt-fest. The remaining attempts were fouled off, missed entirely, or produced unintended outs. The unsuccessful attempts on Tuesday were particularly perplexing. Minutes after Mitchell’s bunt single, Brice Turang tried to bunt for a hit while ahead 3-0 against Taillon. It went for an out as an unintentional sacrifice. Mitchell attempted a squeeze bunt in a 1-1 count in the eighth inning, fouling it for strike two and eventually striking out. With runners on first and second and no outs in the ninth, Joey Ortiz went through with a bunt attempt on an inside pitch as the corner infielders crashed aggressively, producing a soft lineout. Murphy expressed frustration with many of these plays shortly after the game, and was seen in the clubhouse giving stern guidance to some of the players involved. That was an encouraging sight, because the overreliance on bunting and playing small ball should not become a trend. Small ball has a role in the Brewers’ offensive game plan. For much of the season, it’s been one of the plethora of ways a balanced lineup could beat its opponents. That diversity contributed to the club’s success. It could score by hitting for power one day and with infield singles and ground balls through holes the next. The Brewers must restore that balance. They won’t succeed with an approach centered around small ball. A bunt cannot have the same impact as an extra-base hit, unless the opposing defense makes a catastrophic misplay. The potential to apply surprise pressure diminishes with overexposure, too. It was not surprising that the Cubs were alert and prepared for Ortiz’s ill-advised bunt attempt; it was the fifth one they had seen in two days. The onslaught of bunt attempts also constitutes an unnecessarily conservative brand of baseball. It cedes opportunities for hits and other more impactful outcomes. There are limited scenarios in which the safer play makes sense, but a lineup that defaults to those plays projects apprehension over its ability. If there is trepidation in the Brewers’ lineup, it’s neither surprising nor unforgivable. This is a young group. It’s incumbent on more experienced personnel to help it maintain a healthy and productive mindset. Instruction is part of the solution. Instead of allowing players free rein to bunt in situations they deem fitting, the coaching staff may need to set boundaries. “Young players, sometimes you have to take it out of their hands and just tell them what to do,” Murphy said. The responsibility for maintaining a smarter, more balanced approach also falls on the lineup’s veteran cornerstones. Two such hitters have been unreliable for weeks in the middle of the order. William Contreras has a .620 OPS since May 25, and Rhys Hoskins has a .581 OPS since June 2. Surrounding a hitter with reliable veteran hitters gives him more breathing room to play aggressively and risk failure. Two established bats have stopped producing, imposing more pressure on their younger teammates. A potentially lengthy absence for Christian Yelich exacerbates the problem. There’s a growing need for a veteran who can help keep this lineup grounded. Getting more from William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins would go a long way. The former’s game-winning double in the ninth inning of Wednesday’s series finale fittingly led the Brewers to their best offensive output of the three games, illustrating how the lineup’s dynamic transforms when he produces. Murphy characterized the final I-94 Rivalry series of the regular season as featuring “a bunch of teaching moments.” The top lesson is that a team capable of playing small ball should not get too small. Nipping the issue in the bud takes a collaborative effort. View full article

One of the Brewers' sophomore outfielders is having a productive season on both sides of the ball, but he also stands out for his frequent participation in a baseball oddity. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports After striking the mitt of Ryan Jeffers in the eighth inning of Saturday’s extra-inning win over the Twins, Sal Frelick is tied for the major-league lead in reaching base on catcher interference. Frelick has been awarded first base three such times this year, plus a single in Colorado three weeks ago that saw his swing hit both the mitt and the pitch. Had the Brewers elected to take that interference call, Frelick would stand alone atop the leaderboard. Each instance has transpired since Jun. 21, a sequence in which Frelick clipped a catcher’s mitt four times in 74 plate appearances. He has become a magnet for what is typically a novelty baseball event. Occurrences of catcher interference have risen sharply across baseball in recent years, as catchers have inched closer to the plate to optimize receiving. From 2008 through 2017, it happened no more than nine times each season. That total jumped from 12 in 2018 to 60 in 2019 and has steadily increased since. There were 95 catcher interference calls last year, and the tally figures to climb into triple digits this year. It’s now happening on 0.03% of swings, the highest rate in the pitch-tracking era. Still, Frelick’s knack for catching the mitt with his swing stands out. It’s nothing new for him, either. “My whole life,” he said. “In college, in the minors, it happened a ton.” There’s a reason for that. It is rooted in Frelick’s skill set and approach as a hitter. He has short levers and a compact swing, geared toward making contact. Those traits enable him to spoil pitches in two-strike counts, which is when his bat most often meets the catcher’s outstretched mitt. “Sometimes I get beat with a curveball or a slider that’s backdoor, and I give up on it early, but then I’m like, ‘Oh, it’s coming back,’” Frelick explained. “I really know I can foul that pitch off, even if it’s just straight into our dugout. I’m just trying to spoil it. I think every one I’ve had has been that specific pitch.” His estimation is close. One of the interference calls came on a cutter away, as did his single in Colorado. Another was on a sweeping slider. Ironically, Frelick’s first catcher interference call of the year came on a fastball away, but a similar explanation is behind it. He was late in properly identifying a pitch about to clip the outside corner, so he slashed at it to fight it off. “You’re sitting on a breaking ball sometimes, and you get fooled by a heater,” Pat Murphy said. “And the ball travels, and you know you’re going to shoot it to left field, and bam! The catcher’s glove is right there.” “I just kind of give up on a pitch early, those backdoor ones, and then you notice it’s coming back and just try to fight,” Frelick said. “That’s usually when it happens.” Some opponents have taken some level of notice. Frelick has seen catchers move back in the box during subsequent plate appearances following interference. “It kind of opens it up for me,” he said. “If I’m going to keep trying to spoil those pitches, they’re going to have to give in at some point and be like, ‘I can’t really go get this pitch and frame it.’” Murphy remembers the Brewers making such an adjustment against at least one hitter during his time with the club. “It was a player on the other team that we had to say, ‘Hey, move back, catchers.’ And it was also a left-handed hitter.” The occasional ability to force catchers into less optimal receiving positions is never a negative, but its infrequency means it lacks discernible value in a large sample. Frelick knows he’s more prone to catcher interference than others, and why, but he does not consider it a tool in his offensive arsenal or a means of providing value to his team. “Not something I’m actively trying to do,” he said. “I would like to hit those balls, instead of getting fooled on them and having to battle.” “There’s no way you can do that on purpose,” Murphy said. “You really can’t.” It will probably happen a few more times this year, though. It's not intentional, but that doesn't exactly mean it's a fluke. View full article

One of the Brewers' most dependable bullpen arms has endured a horrid five-week stretch, but looking past the results reveals he's closer to getting on track than one might assume. Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports Hoby Milner has allowed 13 runs in his last 11 ⅔ innings of work, inflating his season ERA to 4.81. Opponents have scored in eight of his 12 appearances during that stretch. In his latest appearance on Friday night, Milner surrendered a run in two innings. The first inning of that outing epitomized the veteran southpaw’s performance over the past month: not his best, but also snake-bitten. Milner walked No. 9 hitter Jacob Young to begin the inning, a no-no for any pitcher, particularly a reliever working late in games. He did his job after that, recording a strikeout and inducing two weakly-hit batted balls. Young advanced on both plays, though, moving up to second on a tapper back to Milner and scoring on a 70-mph bloop single that landed in front of a conservative Garrett Mitchell in center field. During this rough patch, Milner has not quite been the same as last year. His game is predicated on deception and command on the edges of the zone. Milner has been among the best in baseball at living on the edges. According to Statcast, he's thrown just 23.1% of his pitches in the heart of the strike zone since the start of the 2022 season, the 24th-lowest rate among 338 pitchers to throw at least 2,000 pitches during that span. His sinker has caught that heart zone a lot more in recent weeks, though. Avoiding line drives is crucial for Milner. Due to throwing more sinkers over the white of the plate, his line drive rate has jumped from 19.5% through June 8 to 25% since. He’s not far from his previous form, though. Most of Milner’s underlying metrics for the season align with those of 2022 and 2023. His rate-based performance has been essentially the same. The numbers point to poor luck for Milner this year and especially cruel fortune during this nightmarish stretch. In these last 12 outings, he’s posted a 10.03 ERA but a more palatable 3.94 FIP. His strikeout (22.2%) and walk (3.7%) rates have remained at their norms. His average exit velocity (87 mph) and hard-hit rate (37.5%) allowed have increased, but not nearly enough to support the .447 BABIP he’s endured. Milner is also suffering from a 44% strand rate, meaning any runner he’s put on base has been more likely to score than not. The only way these numbers could be considered fair luck is if Milner allowed a steady stream of rockets. That hasn’t been the case. His execution has not been the greatest, but he’s not getting hit hard. Here are a few specific instances of the baseball gods frowning upon Milner. All of these hits left the bat at 87 mph or less, and all but one were under 84 mph. First is this Jake Cronenworth jam shot that rolls past the shaded infield to drive in a run. QnZ6MkJfVjBZQUhRPT1fRGdSWVV3QlJVQUVBQUZSWEFBQUFCQTlTQUFOV1ZsWUFCUWRUVkFvTUJnTUVBQXBW.mp4 Here’s Milner successfully executing a pitch inside to Spencer Horwitz and getting his ground ball, only for it to squeak through the right side. Once again, it scored a run. b25lRDNfWGw0TUFRPT1fVjFOUlhGQUhVd1FBRGxJQlV3QUFCdzhFQUFOV1VnVUFDZ01IQkFBTkJWRUVBZ1FF.mp4 Milner inherited a bases-loaded jam in Detroit in early June. Going for the strikeout, he threw a 1-2 sweeper away from Zach McKinstry in the other batter’s box. McKinstry stuck his bat out for a half-swing bloop single. MkJETGpfVjBZQUhRPT1fVUFCVkJsd0hWQUFBREZwWFZnQUFBUVVEQUZnQ1cxZ0FDZ2NNVmxBR0FBTlhBd3BR.mp4 The most recent bad break occurred when Milner again entered with the bases loaded against the Dodgers. He froze Freddie Freeman with a fastball on the black that should have been strike three, but the pitch was called ball two. Milner followed with a sweeper below the zone away, and Freeman shot a soft grounder for a base hit. eFoxR2tfVjBZQUhRPT1fVXdBQUJWRURWUW9BQVZVQ1VnQUFCMUplQUZrTVZGRUFVd1JRVkZFR1ZGRlJBQXBT.mp4 This is a classic case of trusting the process over results in smaller samples. There’s room for Milner to tighten up his command, but his stuff is still producing the kind of swings that made him one of baseball’s most reliable middle relievers for two years. The margins are thin for a funky soft-tosser like Milner. Legitimate struggles will follow if his command regresses even further. If he continues to throw the ball the way he has for much of the season, expect his results to even out. At this moment, he’s closer to the latter playing out. View full article

The Brewers have weathered plenty of storms in the season's first half. Pat Murphy brought his team's attention to a word that illustrates how they must keep moving forward the rest of the way. Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports The yellow signs adorned lockers throughout the Brewers clubhouse on Wednesday afternoon. Undaunted, read the all-caps heading, followed by a definition beneath the underlined term: Not intimidated or discouraged by difficulty, danger, or disappointment. Players and coaches sported matching shirts with the word printed across the chest, in the same gold typeface used on the team’s City Connect jerseys. It was the focus of a team meeting held hours before first pitch against the Pirates, who defeated the Brewers 12-2 the night before in a stale showing from a team that has played a lively brand of baseball this year. The Brewers hold such a meeting every month, Pat Murphy said, to “find out what’s happening on the bus.” “The people in there,” he elaborated, gesturing from his office chair in the direction of the home clubhouse, “that’s the bus.” This month’s meeting featured a vocabulary lesson. Where did the shirts and definition sheets come from? “Out of the dictionary,” Murphy quipped. The true inspiration, he explained, came from a newspaper story about one of his father’s high school football games. The article used "undaunted" to describe how Ty Murphy ranged to his right under pressure and completed a pass. “I think it’s a great word to describe how to react to things when you’re disappointed, or you don’t get what you want, or whatever it is,” the junior Murphy said. “You just got to remain undaunted and move ahead.” It’s a fitting description of how the Brewers have had to navigate the season. They were counted out from afar by many pundits before Opening Day, and have been hit by a barrage of injuries since. The Brewers haven’t always gotten what they wanted. Most outside noise would have told them they had no business leading the division at the end of the first half. The team has ignored the noise and kept chugging along. They did it again on Wednesday night. A 3-4 road trip against the Rockies and Dodgers is nothing to sneeze at, but a series loss in Los Angeles followed by an ugly defeat upon returning home can leave a sour taste in people’s mouths. Mounting concerns about the bullpen don’t help. “We've got to get back to how we win games,” Murphy said after that showing. “It's draining. It's tough.” The Brewers bounced back the following night with their own blowout win. It continued a season-long trend in which the lows have not lasted long. Murphy frequently credits the team's clubhouse “pillars” – veterans like Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins, William Contreras, and Freddy Peralta – for that resiliency. Whether he’ll admit it or not, he also sets that tone with his leadership. “He knows how to get the boys going and, at the same time, keep it nice and chill,” said Sal Frelick, who fell a home run shy of the cycle in the win and made a sliding catch into the wall in foul territory to support another gem from rookie Tobias Myers. Communication and leadership are the most important responsibilities of a manager--arguably more than strategic decision-making during games. Murphy’s dictionary-aided exercise was the latest instance of him fulfilling those duties. More challenges and outside distractions are coming the Brewers’ way. The red-hot Cardinals lurk behind them in the standings. Deserving candidates like Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, Bryan Hudson, and Trevor Megill have not had their strong seasons recognized with All-Star Game selections. The trade deadline is approaching, ushering in a frenzy of rumors and speculation. The Brewers plan to brush it all aside and keep moving forward, undaunted. “We’re on the ground level, and just talk about the ground level,” Murphy said. “We don’t try to discuss the MLB workings of what’s going to come, the trade deadline, none of that. None of that affects us. Let’s just worry about this.” View full article

As the shape of the Brewers' pitching staff has changed, so has the way they sequence hitters. Their current focus is variety, even if it means going against how many pitching staffs utilize their fastballs. Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK After losing co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff over the offseason, the Brewers entered the season prepared to deploy a mix-and-match approach to their pitching staff. That mixing and matching quickly reached greater proportions than the Brewers were probably anticipating. They’ve had an entire rotation’s worth of pitchers on the injured list for much of the year, forcing them to deploy 16 different starters before the All-Star break. The flexibility has extended beyond the number of pitchers Milwaukee has used. It also applies to the way many of those hurlers have attacked hitters. Staffs led by Burnes and Woodruff could overpower hitters with velocity and plus breaking pitches. That’s not the case for a staff that has turned to Colin Rea and Bryse Wilson for many of its bulk innings behind Freddy Peralta. “Our guys generally, if you just look at it, they’re average or below-average on their fastball,” pitching coach Chris Hook said. Velocity alone would lead most observers to that conclusion, but so do more advanced pitch modeling numbers. Brewers pitchers registered an above-average 103 Stuff+ on their four-seam fastballs in 2023. This year, they’re near the bottom of the league, at 97. The staff’s sinker Stuff+ has dropped from 95 to 88, and its overall Stuff+ from 102 to 96. Most of Milwaukee’s bulk pitchers can’t blow guys away with their fastballs, so the Brewers have adjusted their plans of attack accordingly. They’ve aimed to compensate for a lack of velocity and outstanding movement by mixing an array of fastball shapes to various locations. “We’re not a ‘stuff’ club,” Hook said. “Obviously, there’s some guys that have elite fastballs on this club, but we have to balance it out, and we have to balance our attack plan, too.” It’s not a new strategy. The Brewers applied it to a plethora of pitchers before this year, including Rea, Wilson, Julio Teherán, Hoby Milner, and Joel Payamps. They value pitchers who can throw multiple kinds of fastballs, and work with them to arrive at the best way to mix those pitches. “I think that’s what we try to do and what you see as we acquire guys,” Hook said. “We try to spread out that spectrum, I guess is the best way to look at it. And I think that leads to good outcomes.” Milwaukee’s pitching staff has leaned into that approach even more this year, setting itself apart from most teams. The Brewers are bucking one of the most prominent trends of modern pitching. Fastball usage has steadily declined across baseball over the last decade, and breaking ball usage has increased. The Brewers, meanwhile, are throwing a fastball variation (four-seamers, sinkers, or cutters) 63% of the time, the highest rate in baseball. How the Brewers distribute their usage of those three fastballs also stands out. The Red Sox have the most balanced fastball mix by far, due to their unusually high cutter usage, but the Brewers reside comfortably with the Rays in the second tier. The Brewers feel that balance is the best way to maximize success for many of the pitchers on this year’s staff. They don’t have standout four-seamers, sinkers, or cutters, but the thought is that mixing all three is often the best way to make an unassuming arsenal more effective. “It’s just trying to spread out outcomes,” Hook explained. “If we don’t have one huge strength, then we’ve got to spread it out. That’s just how we have to do it.” Mixing four-seamers and two-seamers is a key component of that approach. Back in spring training, Milner voiced his belief that every pitcher should throw two variations of their fastball. Hook echoed that sentiment, citing what he dubs the “protection” one provides the other. A two-seamer down in the zone may be a pitcher’s best fastball, but an elevated four-seamer that grades out as a bad pitch on its own can still be valuable. It makes the two-seamer more effective by forcing the hitter to cover another fastball shape and location. “I look at it as, the two pitches work together in tandem as one’s a protector of [the other]. This is my quality pitch that I get guys out with most of the time, but I’m going to use the four to protect that or vice versa. Hoby, he’s using the four to help the two. He’ll use the four up in the zone to right-handers to protect the two. “Those are the things that we’re always balancing out. We’re like, ‘Hey, this is not his best pitch, but we need to use it in these particular situations.’” The Brewers carry their mix-and-match approach into situations where most teams pare down their pitch mix. They have the fourth-highest sinker usage in two-strike counts and in plate appearances with the platoon disadvantage. These are times when most teams will avoid sinkers, if possible. It’s not a swing-and-miss pitch in a putaway count. Nor does its shape profile well against opposite-handed batters, who have an .828 OPS against sinkers this year. Those factors don’t concern the Brewers nearly as much as spreading out their pitcher’s arsenal and letting him throw the pitches they believe he can execute best. If a sinker provides the necessary difference from what the hitter has already seen and is most likely to reach the intended location, they’ll call for a sinker. “Two-strike pitches, to me, I’ve got to command that baseball,” Hook said. “I don’t want to go with the best pitch and then I leave it [over the plate]. That’s not going to do me any good. So it’s more based on the pitcher and what he commands best in those counts.” With this understanding of how the Brewers think about pitch usage, some pitch calls that initially seem counterproductive start to make more sense. Rea is a great example. Opponents have slugged .596 against Rea’s cutter over the last two years, yet he continues to throw it frequently, because the different look contributes to the effectiveness of his sinker. Hitters have slugged just .310 against his four-seamer, with a 25.3% whiff rate, but he avoids throwing it more because he knows its effectiveness stems from its separation from the sinker. If hitters see more four-seamers, the pitch’s usefulness will fade. The Brewers have held opponents to the seventh-lowest OPS in baseball against four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters. Much of that is due to their excellent defense, but it’s also a product of the approach Hook and the rest of Milwaukee’s run-prevention staff have instructed: using variety to compensate for a lack of standout pitch qualities. “Using several fastballs, using our fourth pitch, whatever it is, we have to use it all to get outs in this league.” View full article