Jack Stern

He's been solid out of the bullpen, and his first playoff outing since 2019 was a sampling of the role he can play in a Brewers postseason run. Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK When identifying key contributors to the Brewers’ comeback victory in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, one could choose from a large number of names. Trevor Megill and Joel Payamps contained the Mets in the middle innings, with the latter delivering Milwaukee’s first shutdown inning of the series after the Crew trimmed the deficit to one run. Jackson Chourio clobbered his first two playoff home runs, the second of which tied the game. Garrett Mitchell followed four batters later with the decisive two-run blast. Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy made sure to throw another name into the ring. “You’ve got to look to Joe Ross as kind of an unsung hero in this game,” he said in his postgame press conference. “He got four huge outs in crucial times.” Ross entered in the top of the seventh to face J.D. Martinez, with a runner on first and the Brewers still trailing, 3-2. He induced a soft lineout to end the inning, before returning to face the minimum in a scoreless eighth. That set the stage for Chourio and Mitchell’s heroics minutes later. Murphy said the Brewers were willing to use Megill in the fourth and fifth innings because they trusted Ross to retire the slew of right-handed batters in the bottom half of the Mets order. He earned that trust due to his strong work in relief throughout the final two months of the regular season. Ross’s tenure in the starting rotation was a mixed bag, interrupted by a back injury that cost him two months on the injured list. In 10 starts, he pitched to a 4.98 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 4.66 SIERA. After an unsuccessful performance in his return outing, the Brewers shifted him to relief, where he posted a 1.67 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and 3.89 SIERA. “Honestly, just trying to stay aggressive when I get out there,” Ross said of his mentality out of the bullpen. “Just trying to hold my own with the rest of the guys. We’ve got one of the better bullpens around. “Anytime you go in out of the bullpen, it’s pound the zone, get ahead, stay ahead, and try to limit the long at-bats.” Ross throws a four-seam fastball and a changeup to left-handed hitters, but as a right-hander whose best pitches are his slider and two-seamer, he was always better suited for relief. The improved results in that role are not surprising. “He can sink the ball and bring it back on the outside. He loves his slider,” Murphy said. Ross has done more of what his manager is describing there since shifting to the bullpen. Instead of attacking right-handed batters inside with his two-seamer, he’s spotting it as a back-door pitch. The two-seamer away better sets up Ross’s signature slider, because both pitches are starting in the same tunnel. Both start just off the plate, with the former coming back to catch the corner and the latter diving away from the batter. The separation is later, making the decision of whether to swing more difficult. As a result, righties chased 43.5% of Ross's sliders outside the zone after his move to the bullpen. Their chase rate on sliders was 30.6% in his starts. The two-seamer's physical characteristics have benefited from modest improvements. It’s added half a tick of velocity on average (94.6 mph to 95.1), and the lateral movement distribution is tighter. Ross is getting more consistent run on the ball. When he does come inside, that extra inch or so of movement has helped him jam righties for harmless flyouts like the one depicted below. This two-seamer featured 17.1 inches of arm-side movement. ross_2s_17_inches.mp4 The optimized version of Ross has been a tough draw for same-sided opponents, who slugged .203 with zero extra-base hits in his regular-season relief outings. It was a similar story when Ross faced four righties on Wednesday night. None recorded a hit, and the only baserunner reached on a walk. The context of the outing made it even more impressive, particularly for someone who has spent most of his career as a starting pitcher. Ross got hot, sat down, and started again multiple times throughout the game, beginning in the second inning and continuing throughout the night. Repeated starting and stopping of a warmup routine encapsulates the uncertainty associated with pitching in relief. “With the situation [being] win or go home, I don’t think it’s too hard to stay locked in, to be honest with you,” he said, adding that the adrenaline boost from the situation helped him stay loose. “Just staying focused, keeping up with the batters, kind of paying attention to the sequencing and things like that. When it’s your turn to go out there, just do your thing.” If the Brewers make a deep playoff run, it won’t be the only time Ross is called upon in a close game. He’s become a trusted member of one of baseball’s best relief corps. “No situation is too big for him,” Murphy said. “I was really pleased with his poise.” View full article

An untimely and uncharacteristic showing on multiple fronts has the Brewers staring down a repeat of failed postseasons of the past. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images There is never a singular reason for a win or a loss in baseball. One can point to several shortcomings that contributed to the Brewers falling to the Mets in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday night. Freddy Peralta immediately gave away an early 2-0 lead, instead of responding with a shutdown inning. Rhys Hoskins bounced into a rally-killing double play with runners on the corners in the bottom of the third. Willy Adames went 0-for-3 with three infield popouts, seemingly trying to hit a statement home run with every swing after an on-field argument with Jesse Winker. A disastrous top of the fifth inning was the headliner, though. The energy evaporated from American Family Field as more than 40,000 onlookers watched two of the home club’s greatest strengths crumble at the worst possible moment. Run prevention has been the Brewers’ specialty for years. While more than just pitching and defense carried this team through a successful regular season, the two attributes were arguably its most consistent. The Brewers’ second opportunity for a shutdown inning began with Jackson Chourio robbing Starling Marte of extra bases with a leaping grab at the left-field wall. After that, the pitching and defense melted down. Joel Payamps, summoned for the inning in relief of Peralta, surrendered a second straight hard-hit ball to the next batter, ex-Brewer Tyrone Taylor. Chourio misplayed this one into a double. Payamps recorded the second out, but continued to labor, walking Francisco Lindor on five pitches, four of which weren't even in the neighborhood of the strike zone. Despite his rough performance, though, Payamps still had a chance to log a scoreless inning when José Iglesias hit a ground ball to first base. Hoskins smothered it, but Payamps watched him make the stop before breaking to cover the bag. Iglesias beat him there for a game-tying infield hit. That mistake opened the floodgates. Aaron Ashby entered to face Brandon Nimmo, who reached on an infield single to load the bases. Adames, who was shaded toward second base, ranged to his right and gloved the ball as he slid to his knees, but could not transfer it to his throwing hand. It wasn’t an easy play, but it’s likely converted by past versions of Adames, who has played the worst defense of his career this year. Ashby would not retire a batter, allowing two more hits, throwing a wild pitch, and issuing one unintentional walk. He threw just eight of his 18 pitches for strikes. When Nick Mears entered as the third reliever of the inning, the Brewers trailed 8-4. The score held there, as Milwaukee dropped its sixth straight playoff game and the 10th of its last 11. For the second consecutive year, they entered the Wild Card Series as the No. 3 seed and were promptly sucker punched to the brink of elimination. It happened for numerous reasons, the most prominent being the implosion of the roster’s greatest aptitudes. Still, many fingers pointed to Murphy as a catalyst for pulling Peralta – who retired each of the final nine batters he faced – after four innings. That’s redirecting blame from where the brunt of it belongs. Murphy’s bullpen management at times warranted valid criticism throughout the regular season, but he governed the staff correctly in Game 1. Peralta tossed a pair of quick innings, but was not in his best form. Inconsistent command produced several unintentionally low fastballs, and the hesitancy of Peralta and William Contreras to throw his breaking stuff as often as usual against a heavily right-handed lineup hinted he lacked feel for those pitches. He was also approaching a point in the start where he has historically struggled. “It had been an emotional 70 pitches,” Murphy explained. “What’s he got, 20 left? He’s usually between 83 and 90 when he kind of loses a little bit on his fastball. I didn’t want him to face those guys three times around.” The Brewers had just reclaimed the lead in the middle innings, and needed a shutdown frame to launch themselves toward the win for which they had positioned themselves well. Peralta had already failed to deliver one, was a coin flip to have his best stuff, and had a third trip through the top of the Mets order looming if anyone reached base. Giving a clean inning to Payamps (with Ashby waiting in the wings) was the sensible decision for holding the lead. The former allowed earned runs in just two of his final 30 regular-season outings, and the latter posted a 1.37 ERA and 0.78 FIP in 19 ⅔ relief innings after a late-August promotion. Murphy knows Peralta’s shortcomings as a starting pitcher. He knows that his bullpen is a strength. He rightfully had a quick hook and was unafraid to enforce it. Unfortunately, his players failed to execute the blueprint that was incredibly successful in the regular season. Moreover, they did so while exhibiting a glaring absence of an attribute Murphy deemed necessary for his team to succeed in the playoffs. During the final weekend of the regular season, Murphy spoke about the need to respond “immediately” and “meet the game halfway.” Players will make mistakes, he said. It’s part of the game. The key is being ready for the next pitch and the next play. Isolated mistakes can be more costly in the postseason, but no World Series winner plays perfect baseball throughout the entirety of October. Case in point: even after Chourio’s misplay and multiple well-struck balls against Payamps, he would have escaped with a scoreless inning had he simply broken for first on contact. Things went south for the Brewers when the mistakes snowballed. No one could see inside the minds of the players after each mistake. Everyone could see what outwardly transpired on the field. Whether the Brewers let the failure of the previous play and the previous pitch bleed into the next, the bottom line is that they did not meet the next opportunity. The rest of the team could have picked up Chourio after his misplay. Instead, Payamps was late in covering first base. Ashby could have responded to Nimmo’s infield hit by bearing down with more competitive pitches. Instead, his control worsened, and the bleeding continued. “What I think happened is the game sped up on him a little bit,” Murphy said. The Brewers then failed to rise to the occasion on the other side of the ball. An offense that prides itself on sound swing decisions drew just two walks and chased 30% of pitches it saw outside the strike zone – the antithesis of how Murphy preaches "meeting the game halfway" to hitters. Seventeen straight Milwaukee hitters were retired to end the game, allowing Luis Severino to complete six innings despite his early struggles and preventing the Brewers from pouncing on an overworked Mets bullpen. Teams can have uncharacteristic showings in the regular season with less consequence. There’s more time to respond during a 162-game schedule. It must be immediate in a short playoff series. It was not on Tuesday, and the result was another postseason loss. Now the Brewers must answer back in Game 2. If they don’t, it will be another early and demoralizing playoff exit for an organization that speaks frequently of its greater aspirations of a World Series championship. View full article

Consistent, ace-like form proved elusive for Milwaukee's top starter in the regular season. Can he find it under the bright lights, in his third career playoff start? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Little has been decided about how the Brewers will align their pitching staff for the National League Wild Card Series. The only certainty is that Freddy Peralta will start Game 1 on Tuesday afternoon. Peralta was always the clear-cut choice to start Milwaukee’s first playoff game. The strikeout ability and high upside of his stuff separate him from the club’s other bulk arms, all of whom profile as back-of-the-rotation pitchers. That’s not a knock against them. It’s simply an acknowledgment that if anyone in the group can dominate a strong lineup, it’s Peralta. However, Peralta comes with his own set of question marks. He’s coming off an inconsistent season in which he did not realize his upside nearly as often as one would hope or expect from a front-line starter. Most of the problems stem from elusive command. Whether he was inflating his pitch count by failing to execute competitive two-strike pitches or suffering from the long ball by making mistakes over the plate, Peralta’s performance was inefficient for good portions of the season. He racked up strikeouts, but ran into more trouble than you'd like when he got into an opposing lineup a third time, and rarely gave the team the deep starts they craved. He finished the regular season with a 3.68 ERA, 4.16 FIP, and 4.41 DRA. That’s the performance of a quality big-league starting pitcher, but it’s a bit underwhelming for a seven-year veteran with the talent to be one of the game’s best pitchers for a contending club. The positives were Peralta’s durability and work ethic. He made all 32 of his scheduled regular-season starts and logged a career-high 173 ⅔ innings. Throughout that time, he worked diligently to reach a comfort zone on the mound, both physically and mentally. It’s not abnormal for pitchers to tinker with mechanics throughout a long season, but Peralta’s changes were more than occasional minor alterations. He switched his positioning on the rubber multiple times, beginning the year on the third-base side and ending on the first-base side. He also reduced the crossfire action in his delivery while driving down the mound. Peralta made another round of alterations in August, abandoning his windup to pitch exclusively out of the stretch and employing a variety of leg lifts to begin his motion. “I had something going on back then physically, and I was trying to make the adjustment to what made me feel better back then,” Peralta explained before a team workout on Monday. After that, he felt everything started to click. “When I changed that… me and [pitching coach Chris Hook], we [decided], let’s keep doing it this way because there’s no issues when you’re pitching from the stretch. And I think from there, even my mind, it was clear. Everything was different.” The results improved. Peralta posted an ERA of 3.06 in the second half, marking the second straight season in which his surface-level output improved after the All-Star break. Beginning with the start against the Dodgers in August in which his varied delivery patterns entered the picture, his ERA was 2.79 in nine starts. “I had some hard moments early in the season, because I wasn’t finding the strike zone sometimes, or maybe my slider wasn’t working really well,” he said,. “But we were able to make the adjustment, and I finished really strong.” “He’s been doing a tremendous job of getting better throughout the year, and I think he kind of helped himself to be in a great spot mind-wise to get to here and to be ready for this game,” Willy Adames said. “I think he’s in a great position, and I believe he’s going to do a great job.” Beneath the shiny exterior of Peralta’s second-half splits, whether he truly threw the ball better after his changes is less clear. His strikeout, walk, and home run rates worsened, leading to less inspiring reviews from ERA estimators. He also threw more non-competitive pitches, defined by TruMedia as a pitch located more than 18 inches from the center of the strike zone. Split GS IP BB% K% HR% ERA FIP SIERA NonCompLoc% First Half 19 103 8.3% 30.1% 3.2% 4.11 3.69 3.36 17.3% Second Half 13 70.2 10.9% 23.9% 4.1% 3.06 4.84 4.45 20.9% Peralta stated last month that he was emphasizing pitching to contact over chasing swing-and-miss, in pursuit of efficiency. However, he still issues too many free passes, makes too many unproductive misses, and gets burned on too many mistakes over the plate for one to say he’s improved on that front. The flaws that remain in Peralta’s game and led to regular-season inconsistency could prove costly in the playoffs. A rough outing in a loss would bring his team to the brink of elimination in a three-game series. With these realities in mind, along with an opponent .840 OPS the third time through the order and beyond this year, the Brewers cannot approach Peralta’s Game 1 start in the way they may have for past aces Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. Pat Murphy must apply a short leash. Peralta did finish the regular season with two of his better starts of the year, allowing three runs in 10 ⅓ innings. Efficiency remained an issue, but Peralta allowed just two hits while striking out 16 of 39 batters faced (41%). That form would be enough on Tuesday against the Mets. If Peralta limits New York to a pair of runs in five innings, he’ll have done his job. His history inspires both promise and uncertainty. It’s a reminder that Peralta could dominate in a special outing--or, just as easily, put the Brewers in a hole with a shaky one. Once he toes the rubber, all that matters is how he looks in the moment. All the adjustments he's made across a long season and all the innings and outings have been learning opportunities. Tuesday will be the test for which he's studied all year. View full article

It’s not the more marketable slogan adorning the team’s October promotional campaign, but it’s just as vital when every pitch assumes added implications. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Pat Murphy has proven to be a media-friendly manager in his first full season in the role. His authentic and straightforward communication has made him a source of quotes and soundbites all year long. It was no surprise, then, when the Brewers adopted one of Murphy’s unofficial mottos as the tagline of its marketing campaign for this year’s postseason. During one of his club’s few regular-season slumps, Murphy issued a vocabulary lesson on the word undaunted. Now it adorns the banner plastered throughout the walls of American Family Field and the city of Milwaukee. It’s been attached as a hashtag to most of the club’s social media posts since the Brewers clinched the NL Central on Sept. 18. The undaunted and relentless nature of Murphy’s club is one of the many driving forces behind a level of success that few outside the organization saw coming. However, he used a different word when asked how his team must approach the fresh challenge of October baseball. “Response is the word I think of, more than anything,” Murphy said. “How are you going to respond to whatever immediately?” While the call to remain undaunted remains active, it’s a different Murphy aphorism that could prove most crucial in practice in the postseason. Winning baseball is energetic, but it’s also thoughtful and grounded. Murphy tries to thread that needle with another adage that he has employed to less fanfare. He’s used it just as frequently, though, including multiple times over the final weekend of the regular season. “The game gets very cruel when you’re trying to control the game,” he said Friday in his office. “You can only meet the game halfway.” That means recognizing what one can and cannot control, and responding properly to whatever cards he’s dealt. “Oftentimes, we want what we want, and we want it now, and that’s not the way it is,” Murphy explained on Saturday. “This game’s way bigger than all of us, so just be okay with being part of it. What can I do to be ready for when opportunities come? And I think that’s just what these guys have done.” Murphy preaches the concept to his hitters, noting that they’re in a reactionary state and at the mercy of the opposing pitcher and defense. The only thing they can fully control is whether or not they swing the bat. “If it’s a ball six inches outside, it’s what it is,” he said. “You can’t do anything about it. If I try to put that in play, I’m not going to be able to do anything with it. So I’m going to play the pitch, meet the game halfway. If he gives me a pitch to hit, I put my swing on it.” Showing up prepared and responding accordingly to whatever the game throws at you is not exclusive to the nine hitters who will start Game 1 of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday afternoon. It applies to everyone in the dugout, including Murphy. “No doubt,” he said when asked if he holds a responsibility to meet the game halfway with his in-game decisions. “I think it’s absolutely the truth.” Regular season or postseason, the Brewers are playing the same sport. The context changes, though. The regular season is a long game in which the cream typically rises to the top. With playoff baseball comes the madness of small sample sizes, which usher in added implications behind each pitch and randomness for which even the best players, managers, and front offices cannot account. In that kind of setting, reminders that baseball often affords its participants limited control over certain outcomes are as vital as ever. All the Brewers can do is put themselves in a position to succeed by meeting the game halfway. Hitters must make smart swing decisions. Pitchers must be ready to contribute in what figures to be an all-hands-on-deck approach to covering innings. Murphy and his staff must be prepared and balance thinking ahead with seizing opportunities right in front of them (which may include letting certain hitters swing the bat instead of encouraging a bunt attempt). “It’s easy sitting here talking about it,” he said. As recently as mid-August, the team faced a real test in this regard, when the Dodgers came to Milwaukee. Murphy saw his charges respond less than perfectly at the time. The luxury the manager and his team carved for themselves was to learn from those moments without being pushed into a lesser position for the one ahead. They've had their trials, and they've gotten some practice with that magnitude of crowd and opponent. Now it’s time for the Brewers to apply it on a brighter stage, with higher stakes. View full article

He seemed like the odd man out a month ago, but the veteran has put himself back into the conversation with a resurgent September, while other contenders remain on the injured list or in the minor leagues. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images When the Brewers activated Hoby Milner from the injured list and optioned Bryan Hudson to Triple-A during the first week of September, the move served multiple functions. The club wanted Hudson to work on rediscovering his best stuff in a low-pressure environment. Meanwhile, Milner, who struggled mightily leading up to his IL stint, received one last shot to prove that he could still be an impactful bullpen piece. The veteran is making good on that opportunity. While Aaron Ashby is the most notable lefty to raise his stock this month and force his way into a key relief role, Milner is quietly trending in the right direction himself. His outings have not been as flashy, but he, too, has become increasingly likely to land in Milwaukee’s playoff bullpen next week. Milner has been due for positive regression for months, and it’s arriving at just the right time. In eight appearances since his return, Milner has posted a solid 3.72 ERA in 9 ⅔ innings, but the outcomes he’s generating per pitch and per swing are what matter most in a small sample. On those fronts, he is looking like a quality reliever worth rostering in October. The 33-year-old has yet to issue a walk since his return, while striking out 31.4% of batters faced, producing a strong 2.56 FIP. Opponents are whiffing on 26.3% of swings, and when they put the ball in play, 56.5% of that contact has been on the ground. Given how close Milner was to his more effective form from previous seasons, sweeping adjustments were unnecessary. Instead, a couple of minor improvements to his location are leading to more swing-and-miss and pairing nicely with improved fortune. Avoiding the heart of the plate is essential for Milner, who relies on creating funky angles with his arsenal to overcome unremarkable stuff. His rate of pitches over the white of the plate is lower in September than in any other month this year. He’s also leaning more on his four-seam fastball, enabling him to attack the upper third of the zone more often. That’s the source of most of his newfound whiffs, and it gives opposing hitters more territory to cover within the zone. Finally, while Milner is throwing strikes at roughly the same rate as he has throughout the season, his sequencing of quality pitches has improved. He’s winning the “race to two” – throwing strike two before ball two – more frequently than he has at any point this year, and he’s making more quality pitches with two strikes. Split 4FB% High% Heart% 0-2 or 1-2% 2-Str Heart% 2-Str AVG March/April 18.3% 17.7% 23.1% 30.8% 10.0% .091 May 14.0% 19.5% 23.0% 41.3% 18.1% .067 June 18.7% 20.0% 27.7% 41.5% 29.2% .250 July 24.2% 24.7% 23.2% 32.0% 11.3% .125 August 26.5% 14.7% 26.5% 35.3% 19.0% .286 September 31.5% 27.3% 20.2% 45.7% 7.1% .143 Milner is not a lock for the playoff roster, but barring a blow-up outing in the season’s final days, he’s made a legitimate case. He still is not one of Milwaukee’s top leverage arms, but as an effective middle reliever, he is a candidate to cover innings in a deficit or bridge the gap between a short start and the team’s back-end relievers. Also looming large is that Milner is trending in the right direction as others who once superseded him on Pat Murphy’s bullpen hierarchy remain away from the active roster. Hudson’s stuff has not improved to the extent the Brewers seemingly desire, so he remains in Triple-A. Rob Zastrzyny’s season is all but officially finished, after a recent transfer to the 60-day injured list. Nick Mears and Bryse Wilson could be activated in Pittsburgh, but face uphill battles with the clock running down. At this stage, it could be a coin flip between Milner and Hudson for the final bullpen spot, with Mears potentially in the mix as well. The Brewers face some interesting roster decisions in the final days. It would not be shocking to see Milner make the cut, and given the composition of this pitching staff, anyone who makes the playoff roster will be asked to do something important before the team gets very far. View full article

In a game that is increasingly managed according to probabilities, Sunday’s unlikely Brewers victory was a reminder that nothing is guaranteed until the final out. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images When Frankie Montas left the mound in the top of the third inning, his team trailed 8-0. A couple of hours later, the Brewers’ bullpen and offense had taken him off the hook in a thrilling 10-9 comeback victory. It was the fourth time in franchise history (and first since 2004, and only the third time overall, of you disown the Seattle Pilots) that Milwaukee erased a deficit of eight or more runs in a win. Most of it happened late, as the Brewers plated six runs over their final two turns, including a four-spot in the bottom of the eighth to take the lead. Underscoring an afternoon filled with several noteworthy storylines – including Montas inadvertently revealing his pitch grips to Diamondbacks runners on second base and Willy Adames refusing to leave the game amid the ugly deficit – was the improbability of the final result. While not the most intricate metric, Win Expectancy provides a solid estimate of a team’s chances of winning a game from the current game situation. Factors considered include the score, inning, number of outs and men on base, and whether the team in question is home or away. Each team’s odds are recalculated after every play. The Brewers’ Win Expectancy was 2.2% when Montas left the game. In other words, a team in a similar situation had historically gone on to win roughly two out of every 100 times. A Diamondbacks victory was extremely likely, but it was not guaranteed. No matter the score, a team’s Win Expectancy does not hit a flat 100 or zero until the final out is recorded. That’s because improbable comebacks have happened throughout baseball’s storied history. No lead is certain to hold up until the game is over. A likelihood of 2% is greater than zero. The Brewers’ comeback was improbable, but not impossible. It can happen and has happened before. The same can be said of how they accomplished the feat. The four-run rally began with two outs and the bases empty in the eighth, at which point the Brewers had roughly a 7% chance of scoring a single run. A likelihood of 7% is greater than zero, though. Six straight Brewers reached base, with Rhys Hoskins’s bloop single tying it and Jake Bauers’s infield hit attaining the lead. Blake Perkins and Hoskins both singled after falling behind in the count 0-2 and prolonging their at-bats. The league-wide on-base percentage this year after reaching an 0-2 count is .198. A 20% chance of reaching base is greater than zero. On multiple levels, the Brewers ultimately landed in the small percentages of players and teams who came through when it was highly unlikely. In an information-driven age of baseball, front offices and managers make an increasing majority of decisions based on probabilities. Sunday’s events were a reminder that no strategy in this game is infallible. Managers can play the favorable platoon matchup, and their player can still be on the losing end of the plate appearance. A pitcher can execute a pitch and induce soft contact that goes for a hit. A batter can hit a line drive on the screws up the middle, only to see it caught for an out. Conversely, players, managers, and front offices occasionally do the wrong things, with favorable results. Orchestrating favorable situations and executing on the field works more often than not, but it will never have a 100% success rate. The adage rings true: that’s why you play the game. That should be comforting to anyone who fears what they perceive as the sport becoming “run by computers.” It can never be fully automated. No results can be guaranteed from human players. Given that humans also make the ultimate call after every pitch, no outcome can be fully assured. There are no absolutes in baseball. It’s one of many elements that make the game great. View full article

The former high-leverage stalwart has not shown considerable improvement where the Brewers want to see it most. At this juncture, it's not guaranteed that he'll resurface in the big-league bullpen. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images When the Brewers added a fresh arm to their bullpen ahead of Friday night’s game, they passed over one of their former high-leverage relievers who has spent much of the month in Triple-A. Kevin Herget, not Bryan Hudson, got the call to replace Enoli Paredes. The Brewers optioned Hudson to Nashville on September 3. He’s surpassed the requisite 10 days in the minor leagues but remains there as the regular season nears its conclusion. The results suggest Hudson has earned his way back to the roster. In four innings since the reassignment, he has struck out seven (a 41.2% strikeout rate), walked none, and allowed just one run. Results are not the focus, though. The Brewers sent Hudson down for a reset amid concerns over his declining stuff. His Triple-A appearances, all one-inning stints, have been deliberately staggered with multiple days of rest in between. The goal is to restore Hudson’s stuff in a more controlled environment. “He’s working on stuff, and it’s going in the right direction,” Pat Murphy said. “He didn’t have a great one the other night, but it was going in the right direction, so I anticipate you’ll see him back [this year].” While most of the public attention went to his declining fastball velocity, the degradation of Hudson’s sweeper, which lost nearly 5 mph from July to September, always looked like the main driver behind the move. Murphy confirmed on Friday that it’s part of the equation, but it would still be obvious if he hadn’t. At the time of his optioning, Hudson had thrown the sweeper just 15.7% of the time since the start of August. He deployed it at a 25.3% rate until the All-Star break. During this Triple-A stint, he’s thrown as many sweepers as four-seam fastballs, a whopping 45.6% usage rate. This is not a results-oriented strategy; Hudson has never used his breaking ball like this. The Brewers want him to rediscover a better version of the pitch and have prescribed significant in-game reps. Murphy’s report that things are trending in the right direction is only partially true. Hudson’s fastball is improving, but his sweeper is not. Split Vel 10thVel 90thVel EffectVel IVB HB 4FB, MLB, Aug-Sept 90.0 88.2 91.9 91.9 12.6 -6.7 4FB, Triple-A, Sept 90.7 89.1 92.4 92.2 14.5 -8.1 ST, MLB, Aug-Sept 79.5 77.4 82.0 81.2 -4.8 13.5 ST, Triple-A, Sept 79.6 77.3 81.2 81.0 -3.6 12.7 Raw velocity has never been what makes Hudson’s fastball effective. Greater gains would be welcome, but they’re not necessary. The takeaways are that Hudson’s slowest fastballs are no longer quite as slow and that he’s gained a couple of inches of carry through the zone. It now looks to a lefty as if it’s boring in on him slightly more. The sweeper, on the other hand, remains stagnant. The velocity is unchanged, and for a big breaking ball, the shape is not impactfully different from where it was since the start of August. For that reason, Hudson’s outlook remains unclear. The Brewers will make decisions based on his projected future production, not his past output from when his stuff was better. “We don’t just bring him back because, quote, ‘You deserve it because you pitched so well early,’” Murphy said. “You’ve got to pitch well again. That’s what we’re looking for.” While Murphy indicated that the Brewers prefer to have him back this year, he also implied that the organization does not regard the pitcher Hudson was when it optioned him as one of their top eight relievers. At the very least, it doesn’t seem to have nearly the same level of confidence in the second-half version of Hudson as it did in his former self. “If you’re just going to go by how he pitched recently and how his stuff was so down, then maybe he doesn’t pitch,” Murphy said. “Does he just want to be on the team and doesn’t pitch, or does he want to be effective?” The Brewers likely have not seen everything they were hoping to in Hudson’s Triple-A stint and may not feel he’s ready to return. That said, the clock is running short. With the Triple-A season concluding on Sunday and just seven big-league games remaining before the postseason, the club must soon make a decision. Is a diminished Hudson worth carrying in a playoff bullpen? Hudson could rejoin the Brewers before Sunday’s game, as Herget has thrown a combined 36 pitches while appearing in back-to-back contests since his promotion. Either way, the fact that he was not the choice on Friday and has not seen his sweeper improve are indications that he’s not where the Brewers want him to be. That has implications for what role -- if any -- Hudson plays for the remainder of the season. View full article

The latest division-winning Brewers team featured a new manager and a revamped roster, both of which deserve credit for this year's success. However, an excellent coaching staff and front office that remained intact from previous seasons also lie at the center of the organization's sustainability. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images The Brewers secured their third division title in four years, after an offseason of turnover. Brandon Woodruff ultimately re-upped on a two-year deal, but his recovery from shoulder surgery ruled him out for the entire season. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles two weeks before pitchers and catchers reported for spring training. Perhaps the most noteworthy change, however, was to the team’s leadership in the dugout. Craig Counsell departed Milwaukee, traveling 90 minutes south to join the division-rival Chicago Cubs on a record contract for a big-league manager. Pat Murphy assumed the mantle of skipper after serving as Counsell’s bench coach for eight seasons, and Rickie Weeks joined the staff as associate manager. While much of the personnel changed, the quality of the on-field product did not. The Brewers figure to cross the 90-win threshold in the regular season’s waning dayss and will play a postseason game for the sixth time in seven years. In hindsight, no one should be surprised. The Brewers are a well-oiled machine, and despite the front-facing turnover, nearly all of that machine’s most integral pieces remained intact. The Brewers lost their two best starting pitchers. They lost Counsell. The lineup underwent a makeover. Most of the individuals responsible for assembling, organizing, and guiding the roster were the same people who filled those roles last year. Counsell’s entire coaching staff remained in Milwaukee after his departure, and they proved indispensable to Murphy in his first full season as a big-league manager. “I knew the whole coaching staff for the most part,” Murphy said minutes after the Cubs lost on Wednesday afternoon to secure his team’s division title. “We made three or four changes. I think they’re unsung heroes.” Hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Ozzie Timmons have continued to work with a lineup that’s been among the team’s best in the last decade. First-base coach Quintin Berry has advised a group of smart baserunners who have stolen 197 bases this year, the third-most in baseball. The fruits of continuity are perhaps felt most on the run-prevention side. Berry continues to instruct a group of rangy young outfielders who convert would-be extra-base hits into outs. Meanwhile, a pitching brain trust led by Chris Hook, Jim Henderson, and Walker McKinven has optimized a hodgepodge of castoff arms in front of that defense. Pundits perceived the Brewers’ pitching staff as a weakness after losing Burnes and Woodruff (and Devin Williams for the entire first half due to stress fractures in his back). It currently boasts the fourth-lowest ERA in baseball. Much of that is due to that elite defense, which is helping the group overperform a 4.20 FIP that ranks 22nd in the sport. However, the pitching department also excels at making pitchers with unremarkable arsenals – Colin Rea, Tobias Myers, Frankie Montas, and Aaron Civale are all examples – as deceptive as possible. Achieving that deception takes different forms based on each pitcher’s abilities and mix. Sometimes, it means mixing three fastball variations to keep hitters off-balance. Other times, it means resurrecting an old breaking ball to close a gap in pitch shapes. It could be a simple mechanical tweak that makes the ball harder for hitters to read out of the hand. The Brewers do not have a spotless hit rate with their pitching projects, but their track record is quite impressive. What many perceived as a weakness remains Milwaukee’s greatest strength. The continuity extends to the front office, where Matt Arnold continued to supply his roster with a productive mix of diamonds in the rough, reliable veterans, and young talent. “Arnold will never take any credit, but he’s been here how many years doing it,” Murphy said. “He’s been a huge cog in this whole thing, not just since he’s been running it, but he’s been a huge cog the whole time. “I think the guys in the front office are never going to get the credit they deserve,” he added. Above all else, the players earned a playoff berth with their performance on the field. Murphy earned it by skillfully shepherding an inexperienced group with more public detractors than believers. However, a significant amount of credit is due to the less visible coordinators who identified these players, developed them into the best versions of themselves, and put them in positions to succeed. That system is likely to continue succeeding long-term. The Brewers have built a deeply ingrained winning culture that spans the front office and coaching staffs across all levels of the organization. The team will, inevitably, lose some of its current coaches as time progresses, but it should be able to weather those subtractions due to how deeply its models of leadership, player development, and strategy are embedded into its being. It’s how they’ve kept chugging along after losing Derek Johnson, David Stearns, and now Counsell. “It doesn’t happen overnight,” said Christian Yelich, who has seen that sustained culture develop over his seven years in Milwaukee. “It doesn’t take one year or two years for that to become your identity as an organization or the team. It takes a lot of talented people. It takes a lot of the right people. It takes a lot of consistency from ownership on down, throughout the organization, you know? It’s not all because of one person.” It’s no coincidence that the Brewers find themselves here yet again. Few organizations boast the level of cohesion and efficiency present in Milwaukee. The rest of baseball ought to be on notice. View full article

Unnecessary bunts and a curious approach to Devin Williams's availability were reminders that overmanaging can be a problem for the Brewers' first-year skipper. Sometimes, too much nuance can be detrimental. Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images An eventful series between the Brewers and Diamondbacks concluded with a wild and baffling finale on Sunday, as the managers traded confusing decisions in the late innings of an eventual Arizona walk-off win. The questionable management from the road dugout began on the offensive side. Pat Murphy called for a sacrifice bunt twice in the final four innings, which hurt his team’s chances of scoring both times. In the seventh inning, Joey Ortiz stepped to the plate with a 7-5 Brewers lead, runners on first and second, and no outs. Ortiz attempted a sacrifice on a sinker several inches off the plate inside. Ryan Thompson collected the roller to the mound and initiated a 1-5-3 double play. Ortiz and lead runner Rhys Hoskins were both retired, leaving only Jake Bauers on second base with two outs. When Sal Frelick led off the 10th inning of the then-tied game, the Brewers asked him to sacrifice the placed runner from second to third. Frelick squared and popped a 100-mph fastball to third base for the inning’s first out. The Brewers ultimately scored in both innings, but that does not justify the process behind the sacrifice attempts. The Brewers will and should play more small ball than most teams due to the makeup of their roster, but they do their offense a disservice when they overemphasize it in situations warranting a more aggressive and straightforward approach to scoring. When Ortiz came to bat, the Brewers had an opportunity to blow the game open in the late innings. They chose to forgo that opportunity by playing small ball. Considering where the Brewers were in their lineup, Ortiz was arguably the best hitter to turn the frame into a big inning. He entered the game with a solid 109 wRC+ and a .308/.400/.513 slash line in September. Behind Ortiz was Frelick, who trails Ortiz in on-base percentage, entered the game with an 89 wRC+, and rarely makes authoritative contact. A soft ground ball or fly ball was highly unlikely to score Hoskins from third. The Brewers had their shot with Ortiz. Instead, they used him to hand the Diamondbacks an out to move the runners over for a less favorable matchup. It's good to note that, on average, runners on first and second with no outs is one of the rare occasions on which the models do support laying down a bunt. Those models don't account for aspects like the fact that Ortiz is better than the hitter behind him or that the lead runner he was trying to advance is one of the slowest players in baseball, though. Similarly, immediately turning to small ball is arguably the wrong course of action for the road team in extra innings. Due to the placed runner, the home team begins the bottom half of the inning with the winning run at the plate if trailing by one. The best way for the road team to avoid starting the inning at a disadvantage is by playing for multiple runs in the top half. Leading off with a sacrifice bunt does the opposite. Not only is the bunt detrimental when not executed according to plan, but its overall utility is limited. It does not catch the opposing defense by surprise when it is familiar and expected. As a sacrifice, it rarely puts the batting team in a better position to score. Well-executed bunts for hits don't have to surprise the defense, and bunting more does sharpen the skill for most players, but the only Brewer who has shown the consistent competence to bunt well even against a ready defense is one who can't do that for them right now: the injured Christian Yelich. Too much bunting undermines an offense’s ability to do damage, a trap that the Brewers have fallen into at times throughout the season. It’s a deleteriously demanding brand of baseball that attempts to force pressure on the opponent, instead of creating it organically with quality contact and plate discipline. That is not always Murphy’s fault. In fact, he typically emphasizes ball-strike recognition and “meeting the game halfway” over employing any particular kind of offensive strategy. He has often voiced disapproval over ill-advised bunts attempted of a player’s own volition. On sacrifice bunt calls from the dugout, though, it is Murphy making the final decision to run an often counterproductive play. He clearly feels pressure, at times, to help his team produce offense, when the more prudent course is to stand back and make room for their talent, even understanding the risk that it might not come to bear in a given moment. It was Murphy’s handling of his best reliever, however, that raised the most eyebrows on Sunday. As five straight Diamondbacks reached against Jared Koenig in the 10th to erase a two-run lead, Devin Williams mysteriously alternated between warming up and sitting down. A seated Williams looked on with visible frustration as Arizona walked it off. Murphy explained that he wanted to avoid using Williams due to his recent workload amid the team’s current stretch of 13 games in as many days. Per Murphy, Williams was only available to record one out, and was warming in case that precise situation arose. However, Williams seemingly contradicted that statement with his own account of the final two innings. He initially warmed up during the ninth when the game was tied, and said he would have entered for the traditional save opportunity had the Brewers taken the lead. If Murphy truly was trying to avoid pitching Williams, who appeared in back-to-back and three of four games two days earlier, it was the right approach. However, using such a hyper-specific methodology to determine his availability undermined the load management Murphy was trying to achieve. Murphy downplayed any impact of the start-and-stop warmup on Williams’ availability for Monday and beyond, but the reality is that such pitches thrown in the bullpen are not empty bullets. Williams appeared hot and ready to enter the game, both physically and mentally, on multiple occasions. On a day when he and the Brewers would have benefited most from keeping him down, that energy went to waste in a game in which he was unlikely to appear. Despite Murphy’s motivational mantra of “Win tonight,” the reality is that balancing today and tomorrow is a critical part of keeping a big-league roster functional throughout a long season. Williams has been worked hard, and the Brewers need him at full strength for a seven-game homestand that could have significant implications in the National League playoff race. Murphy knows this; it’s why Williams did not pitch on Sunday. But the skipper has yet to strike that balance consistently, a challenging task at which his predecessor excelled throughout his tenure as Milwaukee’s skipper. Keeping his closer’s availability open-ended would have been far more reasonable in a playoff or regular-season elimination game. A manager has to manage for tonight when there may be no tomorrow. While Murphy was given the unenviable task of covering innings with a depleted bullpen, that did not make Sunday a fitting day to get creative with reliever availability. The stakes did not justify sending Williams through multiple warmup routines for an unlikely one-out save opportunity. He should have been off-limits entirely, leaving Koenig to finish the game one way or another. One game does not take away from Murphy’s success so far as a first-year manager, but it was a reminder that he has his weak spots as an in-game tactician. His tendency to think deeply about the game's intricacies can sometimes be his undoing, prompting him to juggle more moving pieces than necessary as he strategizes. Orchestrating a successful rally with bunting and small ball requires that several little things go right, as does a Devin Williams one-out save opportunity. Most of those things are out of Murphy’s control. In these moments, a simpler approach can be best. When there’s an opportunity to strike on offense, swing the bat. When a reliever has shouldered a heavy load and must be fresh in a few days, give him the day off. Win tonight when you can, but remember that another tonight will come tomorrow. View full article

Saturday night's win was among the Brewers' most eventful of the year, but a first-inning catch should stand out as the latest example of their right fielder's steady greatness with the glove. Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Before a seven-run second inning that gave the Brewers a healthy lead they would not relinquish against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Sal Frelick briefly took center stage with a tremendous catch to begin the bottom of the first inning. Corbin Carroll laced a hard fly ball that would have barely cleared the wall in right field for a game-tying home run, but Frelick tracked it over his shoulder and made a leaping grab, snatching the ball and hanging onto it as he slammed into one of the padded beams along the fence. In a way, it was fitting that several captivating moments – the lineup’s outburst, Christian Yelich’s outstanding performance in the Bally Sports Wisconsin broadcast booth, and the sudden tension when Andruw Monasterio’s nightmarish eighth inning at third base spawned a four-run frame for Arizona – quickly and repeatedly redirected spectator attention away from Frelick’s catch. Overlooked excellence in the field has been a theme of his season. Frelick has arguably been the best defensive right fielder in baseball this year. He leads right fielders with 12 Defensive Runs Saved. Playing plus defense, particularly in the outfield, is among the chief tenets fueling the Brewers’ success this year. It’s why the pitching staff ranks third in baseball in ERA (3.62) despite ranking 23rd in FIP (4.22). Milwaukee has allowed the lowest batting average on fly balls (.193), and Frelick’s ability to cover ground in right field is among the catalysts. Like Brice Turang, Frelick’s excellence in the field gives him a solid floor as a useful big-league player, despite his unremarkable offense. He owns a career 90 wRC+, but according to Baseball-Reference’s version of the metric, he has accrued 2.8 Wins Above Replacement in just over an entire season’s worth of playing time. By that measurement, he’s a solid everyday player. Defense does not always make headlines. Compared to the gaudy rate and counting stats accumulated by the best players and teams on the mound and at the plate, the value of defense is often not as readily apparent, even though it adds up similarly. Frelick has a knack for the spectacular, but it's not a matter of flash. A short guy, he uses headlong, leaping dives to extend his range at the catchpoint. He also uses fearlessness and a comfort with contact born of his time in youth hockey to make plays at the wall, despite that lack of height and a frequent need to make the play even as his body is jarred. Frelick has saved plenty of runs in the field this year. In that sense, he’s been a frequent contributor to his team’s success. His most jaw-dropping catches – including one that Willy Adames said “set the tone” on Saturday night – are periodic reminders of that. View full article

Opponents are starting to pitch around Jackson Chourio. He's responding as well as one could hope as a 20-year-old who struggled to remain patient earlier in the year. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Jackson Chourio’s rookie season gained a prominent entry in the history books on Thursday night in San Francisco, as the Brewers’ young phenom became the youngest player in MLB history to achieve a season of at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Chourio’s two-run blast in the eighth inning was another reminder of his exclusive physical prowess. His quick hands got his barrel to an up-and-in sinker and turned it around for a booming fly ball to right field. The at-bat also featured something Chourio has not seen as frequently in recent weeks: a pitch in the strike zone. Pitchers have become more cautious with the red-hot rookie. In his last 17 games (75 plate appearances), only 46.3% of the pitches he’s seen have been in the strike zone. For most of July and August, that figure was over 50%. The Cardinals intentionally walked him in consecutive games last week. Receiving fewer pitches to hit is the latest test of Chourio’s adaptability, and his initial response has been encouraging. Instead of expanding his attack zone to continue doing damage, he’s chasing less. Chourio struggled with overly aggressive swing decisions through May, but his chase rate during this stretch sits a tick below the league average at 26.9%. He has drawn eight unintentional walks. When he gets a pitch in the strike zone, he is still doing more damage than ever. During this 17-game stretch, Chourio is slugging .800 on pitches in the zone, the eighth-highest mark in baseball. He’s hit five home runs and seven doubles. This is the definition of a confident hitter taking what the pitcher gives him. When pitchers work around Chourio, he’s content with taking pitches and reaching base. The moment they come back over the plate, he returns to attacking the ball and drives it. His final at-bat on Thursday was a prime example. Chourio took a first-pitch sinker off the outside corner for a ball. Ahead in the count 1-0, he was prepared to ambush the first pitch he saw in the strike zone. It’s a promising sign for both Chourio and the Brewers. He is currently their most dangerous hitter. Unless he shows substantial signs of slowing down, opponents will likely treat him as such down the stretch and into the postseason. So long as Chourio continues to play the cards he’s dealt pitch-to-pitch, he can remain a driving force in Milwaukee’s offense despite seeing fewer pitches to punish. View full article

Pat Murphy alluded multiple times within the last week to a perceived struggle against southpaws, but the current iteration of his righty-heavy lineup has enough reliable pieces to hold its own in such matchups. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images After his offense recorded 23 consecutive outs in the closing contest of a lackluster six-game homestand, Pat Murphy began his postgame remarks to the media with a frank assessment. “That’s not good.” Four Colorado Rockies arms combined to hold the Brewers to a single unearned run, but it was southpaw starter Kyle Freeland who set the tone in his six innings of work. That stood out to Murphy, who two days prior called left-handed starters his team’s “nemesis.” “Against left-handed pitching, we haven’t been great,” Murphy said after Freeland stymied Milwaukee’s lineup. In reality, the Brewers have been competent against left-handed pitching this year, after a three-year stretch of significant struggles. From 2021 through 2023, Milwaukee mustered a 93 wRC+ against lefthanders. That figure is up to a slightly above-average 103 this year. Recent showings arguably ought to allay anyone's concerns about the team handling lefties, rather than exacerbate them. The evening before Freeland’s dominance, the Brewers dinged left-hander Ty Blach for five earned runs, including three homers. They hit two long balls against Steven Matz earlier in the week, and knocked him out of the game in the fifth inning. In the interest of projecting how the Brewers stack up against southpaws the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs, here’s a more detailed breakdown of how their roster has fared against them (minimum 75 plate appearances). Player PA wRC+ wOBA xwOBA Willy Adames 153 82 .286 .313 William Contreras 146 144 .376 .331 Jackson Chourio 141 95 .305 .310 Joey Ortiz 128 122 .344 .350 Blake Perkins 125 106 .322 .276 Rhys Hoskins 109 91 .299 .321 Brice Turang 100 72 .272 .276 Christian Yelich 99 153 .391 .340 Gary Sánchez 95 103 .315 .357 Sal Frelick 76 88 .295 .250 There are some caveats to note here. Christian Yelich’s absence due to season-ending surgery weakens the lineup, regardless of the matchup. While Blake Perkins has enjoyed solid results, his quality of contact does not support a good deal of that production. On the flip side, two hitters likely profile better than indicated by their results to date. Given his known talent level and sustained post-May breakout, it’s not fair to evaluate Jackson Chourio by his season-long numbers. Since the start of June, he has posted an improved .315/.357/.435 line (117 wRC+) against southpaws. Gary Sánchez currently sports a solid but unspectacular line against lefties, but he did his best work against them in two of his previous three seasons and has looked close to that form this year. Sánchez’s batted balls against lefties have an average exit velocity of 93.6 mph, and 52.3% of them have been hard-hit. It’s hardly the most potent collection of bats, but the Brewers have a solid core that should position them to compete against lefthanders. Chourio, Sánchez, William Contreras, and Joey Ortiz all profile as reliable bats in such matchups, leaving this year’s lineup with a higher floor than those often overpowered by lefties in years past. Hitting southpaws is not this club’s greatest strength, but it is not a glaring weakness, either. View full article

The division race is all but decided, but the Brewers are still playing for the best opportunity to win their first playoff series since 2018. The chance to bypass the Wild Card Series is within their grasp with a few weeks to go, Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images For the second straight game (and third of the last four), the Brewers fell in extra innings Wednesday, as their offense sputtered. The latest occurrence saw Milwaukee plate just two runs while going 0-for-15 with runners in scoring position. Driving in runners from second or third base is not an issue for the Brewers, overall. Neither is total scoring. They have the second-highest OPS with runners in scoring position in baseball, and rank fifth in runs per game. That does not mean struggles to score or execute with men on base never happen in small samples. It happens to every team, including baseball’s best. The New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and Los Angeles Dodgers have been the top offenses in baseball by wRC+. The Yankees have had 11 streaks of scoring three or fewer runs multiple games in a row. The Orioles have 12. The Dodgers have nine. All three teams have encountered stretches of at least four straight games in which they failed to exceed three runs scored. What the Brewers are currently experiencing is not abnormal. Nor is it a symptom of a larger syndrome with their team. It is a reminder of how random baseball becomes in small samples, partially due to the natural ebbs and flows of the game. Acknowledgment of that randomness lies at the crux of the Brewers’ approach to winning a World Series. They know the playoffs are unpredictable. The hope is that by reaching the dance in as many years as possible, they’re bound to get hot at the right time and catch the necessary breaks at some point, instead of having a short-term window slammed shut by variables for which they cannot fully account. Ironically, the Brewers have been on the other end of those hot streaks and breaks, including in last year’s Wild Card Series, when the Arizona Diamondbacks swept them in two games. Small-sample struggles in the regular season are a reminder that it can easily happen again. The regular season and the playoffs are entirely different animals. Ebbs and flows even out throughout the course of the year. A couple of uncharacteristic or unlucky showings will not end a team’s season. The opposite is often true in October. The shorter the sample, the more decisive each pitch, plate appearance, and game, and the greater the randomness accompanying them. With that in mind, Milwaukee’s pursuit of the Dodgers and Phillies for one of the National League’s top two seeds is a major storyline over the regular season’s final weeks. The Brewers would not just clinch a bye or an easier matchup. They would also clinch slightly more room for error. In the best-of-five Division Series, the Brewers could survive a two-game offensive rut and still advance. In the best-of-three Wild Card Series, that brief sputter could end their season. Entering Thursday's off day, the Brewers trail the Dodgers by three games and the Phillies by 2.5. They face the latter at home for three games during the third week of September, in a series that could seriously impact National League playoff seeding. The Brewers will not just need a big showing in that series to catch the Phillies. They must also sweep, for an opportunity to seize the tiebreaker between the two teams. That would mean both clubs went 3-3 against each other in the regular season, at which point their records within their respective divisions become the tiebreaker. The Brewers play the Pittsburgh Pirates the following week in their final NL Central series. The division race may be all but settled, but if anything, the temperature is rising for Milwaukee. The remaining regular-season games – particularly the forthcoming showdown with Philadelphia – still carry tremendous implications. They could indirectly impact whether the Brewers win a playoff series, or two, or three. The team hopes it won't have to be four. View full article