PeaveyFury
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Everything posted by PeaveyFury
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So many of these types of things have been able to adapt to online meetings. Is there an AA chapter that has successfully done so?
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This data is a bit concerning, as in addition to the extension of the full quarantine through May 8, it further advocates for a 50% quaranitine into July or August to achieve the mitigation that they're hoping to achieve, which could include an extended closure of bars and restaurants. It also predicts, as noted 2-3 waves of this over the next 12-18 months. And am I reading it correctly that they're assuming 22,000 deaths JUST in Minnesota?
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Sounds like a very interesting study- do you have a link?
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Most people don't have a ton of issues with him as a coach, rather, they have issues with him as a personnel guy. He has 'mediocred up' quite a bit in his career- not great at Penn St, yet gets an NFL HC job. Promoted to GM, despite just being 'ok' as a HC. But hey, he used to coach Tom Brady. His player moves have been historically bad. Winning the AFC South consistently isn't a huge accomplishment based on how bad Tennesee and Jacksonville were for years. Coupled with Indy's collapse after Luck's injuries/retirement, winning a division at 9-7 a couple of times and consistently underperforming the immense level of defensive and offensive talents on the team equals a lot of dislike for the promotions he continues to receive for some reason.
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Doesn't all of this data cited here rely on equal testing rates, though? What are the number of tests conducted in Iowa vs. Wisconsin?
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Possibly so. But if they catch COVID-19, they'll almost surely die. Call it obtuse, call it frustration at people who are flippantly desiring to place other people at risk out of little more than impatience. Fair enough, as you weren't the one mentioning the lattes earlier in the thread. But you were the one advocating people going out to get icecream to 'get out of the house' a few days ago. Sorry, needing to 'get out of the house' and putting guidelines that are working to the side to do so is the definition of self-centered behavior, which is frustrating in a time when so many people are making astounding sacrifices for the benefit of others, and when we all need to be doing so.
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The continued implication that these factors haven't been weighed and considered by the people-in-the-know is a bit puzzling to me. Of course those factors have been weighed. Again, based on any sort of expertise or knowledge base? Assuming not, what makes you think you're better qualified than the actual experts to make this determination, or to say it in absolutes? Why do you get to decide that the 30 year old cancer survivor's horrible chemo treatments were all for not? Or that the father of the 3 year old with leukemia lose his job because his employer calls him back into the office and he can't take the risk? Why do our parents and grandparents need to be put at a heightened risk? They'll lift the restrictions when they think it's best, factoring all of the considerations. Setting an arbitrary date does zero good, especially if it makes it more likely we'll have to do this all again as they have elsewhere.
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No offense, but are you basing this on anything other than your own opinion, and is that based on any sort of medical, microbiological, etc. training? Simulations WERE run for this type of selective quarantine, and the simulations consistently yielded worse results for 'flattening the curve' than the widespread social distancing efforts that we're currently undertaking.
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Oh, I agree. But I think there's this odd feeling among a lot of people, especially the ones who want this to end right away, that the choice is to end the quarantine either next week otherwise it'll be 9 months from now with no options in between. I think the reality is, if we end it shortly, there's a much higher chance we'll have to go back in sometime in May or June, vs. waiting a bit longer than we might like right now so that we have less of a chance of a 2nd quarantine being necessary.
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The problem is, though, that places like South Korea are clamping back down just weeks after relaxing their restrictions. How excited is everyone going to be about lifting the stay-at-home orders in May if we're locked back down by June?
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I loved it when this week the NFL will be doing a fully digital online draft, and the Twitterverse suggested that O'Brien is likely to use the autodraft feature
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This is my favorite autocorrect ever.
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You have the same medical training, COVID-19 response training, etc.? SAW two of them, or saw PICTURES of two of them, capturing one brief moment in a long day? Rampant reports of ballot mailing and delivery issues likely made that problematic for a lot of people and not nearly as simple as you make it out to be. Add in two conflicting court rulings that invalidated lots of absentee ballots, and it's an irresponsible mess in the middle of a pandemic that likely caused some amount of exposure that was completely preventable. How is that debatable, or a hill you want to die on? If any exposure took place yesterday, wasn't it too much? And completely unacceptable?
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I just have the observation of experts to go off of: UW Health official: "Nearly impossible' to maintain social distancing at polls Jeff Pothof, chief quality and safety officer for UW Health in Madison, viewed photographs taken at polling places around the state and was left with two strong, very different impressions. "Boy, I'm somewhat inspired by the people who despite the risks are going out and voting," he said. "However, it's nearly impossible to maintain social distancing throughout the process of going to the polls and voting. You can see some people quite close to each other, some wearing masks, some not. https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/07/wisconsin-election-news-live-updates-state-news/2960278001/
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First round picks have a fifth year option, second round picks don't - they are only controlled for four years. Moving down into the second round means losing the value of that fifth year option. I think many of these draft value charts were established before this was in the collective bargaining agreement, and thus underestimate the difference in value between a late 1st round pick and an early 2nd round pick. I don't think that is as prevalent as you might think. If you're using one from a source that currently covers the draft, it should be factored in.
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...and potentially detrimental to the health of yourself and others. Non-essential should be non-essential. Keep yourself at home. ...though admittedly your opinion and not that of those who actually have a hand in resolving what is happening here, right?
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Sure. But far and away the larger risk are the people who are asymptomatic and shedding virus to all they come in contact with, who may have been in contact with those people for 1-2 hours yesterday. Are you typically standing in line for 2 hours at the grocery store breathing in that air? Largely in a sedentary state with the people immediately around you? Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....
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Move back 10 spots, and get the 3rd pick #90 of the 3rd round. Nope, they should pay more for the 1st round control GB is giving up. I might have to ask for both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175. There just has to be more gotten in return to move out of the 1st round than just a low 3rd pick Pairing 90 and 94 has a #65value. Otherwise you're staring at a "deep draft" with only 2 picks at 40&62 followed by 90/94. That's a lot of hope and a prayer to wait til 90 for that depth to fall on to your laps. What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.
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Great post, I agree on all points.
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You're certain of that in every single case, or is that just based on the pictures you happened to see online? And none of those people in any case touched the same pen that happened to be unsanitary (meaning not one got missed in between the flurry of voters)? Or the same door handle? I understand that precautions were taken in most places, but to assume that little transmission was possible yesterday seems like absolute fallacy to me.
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Obviously, I think yesterday's election has the potential to destroy the optimistic projections for Wisconsin.... While not beneficial, I think it’s impact won’t really be that relevant. Those polling places aren’t much different than everyone needing to go to the grocery store. Really the way I think of it they are probably way better. Constantly cleaning and wiping things down...lots of hand sanitizer. Most grocery stores probably don’t provide you hand sanitizer and probably wipe things down at the end of each day. Obviously funneling a bunch of people to the polls isn’t the best thing in the world, but for the majority of places the lack of turnout and absentee will really minimize how many were truly going through those places. Pretty sure more hit up the bar for fish fry takeout last Friday than my polling place from the sounds of it. The pictures of Milwaukee are all the rage, but I’m guessing most places didn’t have huge lines (and to be fair those people did social distance). Sorry, I strongly disagree. I can't imagine people waiting in lines stretching around city blocks at grocery stores. You can assume Milwaukee was the exception, but it was not. I can 100% verify that the same thing was happening in places like Green Bay as well. For a disease that has hammered cities/urban areas more significantly than anywhere else, there's almost no way having people in close quarters like that won't cause significant problems over the next couple of weeks, IMO.
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Obviously, I think yesterday's election has the potential to destroy the optimistic projections for Wisconsin....
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Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?
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Wasn't 2017 the last Ted draft, not Gute?
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It was really bad in the city parks by us as well. Lots of people playing organized sports, etc.
