adambr2
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Everything posted by adambr2
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He also said there are certain prospects he isn't giving up. I don't know what major acquisition you are going to make without your top prospects being involved. He also made similar comments after Cain/Yelich and everyone and their mother thought he would add pitching. That didn't happen either. You may see smaller scale additons but Machado was this years Quintana. I don't think it was clear whether he meant there's certain guys he won't trade at all, or certain guys he won't trade for Machado. I believe it's the latter. Stearns is all about value and is too smart to just take guys off the table completely.
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I agree with that plan. Braun will/should play 120 games for the next 2 years if he doesn't have a significant injury. He's hit into some bad luck for parts of this year and the last month or 2 last year...but he's one of our best hitters. Until Jesus's breakout, he was our very best hitter...at this point I think Jesus might be better, but so many on this board wildly underestimate Braun's ability when healthy. If Braun is one of our best hitters that certainly explains our offensive struggles this year. Cain, Yelich, Aguilar, Shaw, and Thames are all better hitters than Braun currently and he shouldn't play over any of the above even when healthy. Yes, he's had some bad luck this year but he's also near career highs in K rate and career lows in walks. "When healthy" is also a pointless addition to any statement about Braun since "when healthy" is never, at least not for more than a few days at a time. Braun will get hot for a week or two, then struggle for a week and wind up on the DL. It's where he's at. We keep waiting for him to suddenly turn back the clock and miraculously be fully healthy and productive and as we've learned the last 2 seasons that is not happening. He is done.
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https://www.fishstripes.com/2018/7/19/17590154/marlins-catcher-jt-realmuto-all-star-24-in-2018-fangraphs-trade-value-rankings Well, according to Fangraphs, his value is almost exactly at what Yelich was, and I'd tend to agree. That's part of the reason I said the Hiura headliner was necessary and he compares really well to what Brinson was worth -- Hiura may be worth a bit more I think. I would strongly disagree that salary is going to be any kind of factor in the Marlins moving Realmuto. Realmuto is making $2.9M this year. Yes, he figures to get some nice raises in arbitration, but they have unloaded plenty of salary and have more interest in acquiring talent at this point. They aren't discounting Realmuto to avoid his arbitration raises.
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Yeah ... the Marlins can ask all they want for Robles or Soto, but that deal hasn't happened yet, so no one really has any idea if the Nats would even do it. With the way Soto has mashed at the MLB level as a 19-year-old, I don't think he is on the table for anyone. Borderline insulting? Lutz is well on his way to being a top 100 prospect, if not top 50 at season's end. My goodness ... it seems like people here hate every single one of our prospects that aren't names Hiura, Burnes or Peralta. I'm just trying to find a way to for the team to improve the MLB roster without having to trade MLB assets or their sure-fire #1 prospect to do it. I didn't say the Nats will do it. It doesn't matter what the Nats will do. It only matters what the Marlins will do in regard to Realmuto. I like Lutz a lot. Just because I say he isn't going to be an acceptable centerpiece for Realmuto doesn't mean I "hate" him. But him being on his way to possibly being a top 100 prospect at the end of the season doesn't give him the necessary value needed to acquire Realmuto.
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No, it's not dropping, its rising. He's coming off two very good years but has propelled himself into ourstanding top 2 catcher status this year. His OPS is over .900, and he's a top notch defender. He's elite both offensively and defensively and has put up 4 WAR at the break. The idea that the Marlins lost value by not selling him last winter is silly. He proved them right, not wrong. 2+ years of cheap control is still worth a ton, they are well within their rights to ask for an elite prospect centerpiece for Realmuto and some of the proposals I've seen for him would just be a waste of both ours and the Marlins' time.
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No, absolutely no chance.
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No, it's not enough. The Marlins have been very firm with the Nationals that to land Realmuto, they need to start with Robles or Soto. They won't move him otherwise and won't need to. The only prospect we have on that level is Hiura. Any discussion of trading for Realmuto needs to start with Keston. I do think you could possibly get away without giving up either of Burnes or Peralta as long as you headlined a deal with Hiura. Yesterday I had suggested Realmuto+Castro for Hiura+Ray+Ortiz+Gatewood+Bickford. A deal for Realmuto headlined by Lutz and Ortiz is borderline insulting to Miami. No way is it even close.
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Royals Preparing to Move Assets
adambr2 replied to Dadbauer's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I don't get the love for Perez. His OBP is horrendous -- .259. That's 35 points below Pina. I guess maybe if you think you're buying low and he'll improve, but he he has been awful, and he's never been a good on base guy. -
Yeah with Ramos and Cervelli both on the DL the potential trade market for catchers is really barren. No one is remotely close to Realmuto, especially with his control. He's the best catcher in baseball.
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Would you go get Realmuto if you had to give up Hiura, but could keep Burnes and Peralta? Realmuto is highly comparable in trade value to what we gave up for Yelich. So I think something like Realmuto+Castro for Hiura+Ray+Ortiz+Gatewood+Bickford is somewhat plausible. Both Realmuto and Castro are controlled through 2020. Forget about trying to get Realmuto without Hiura, they want Robles or Soto as a centerpiece from Washington and will certainly demand Hiura from us.
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You might want to look at his recent playoff history. Its brutal. He's just not very good anymore. I don't understand the notion that young pitchers can't handle playoff pressure. I guarantee probably the most anxiety that Burnes or Peralta will feel in their entire careers is when they stepped onto an MLB mound for the first time, and both handled it with flying colors. Hamels is no better option than anyone else in our rotation.
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Based on what evidence? He has his lowest BA in 5yrs, 2nd lowest OBP in 5yrs (by 7pts), lowest OPS in 5yrs, lowest OPS+ in 5yrs, -5 DRS lowest in 5yrs (Villar is 4-5 so going to Dozier is a sizable drop). GMs aren't going to adjust their offer because a dude has been great in the 2nd half the past 2yrs. 2nd half of the season counts just the same as the 1st half. The 1st half is meaningless because you will never have him in the first half and didn’t this year. All that matters is that he is good till the end of the year. So no, I don’t agree with your claim because he is a rental. If he wasn’t, sure, makes sense. Now I don’t know if GMs are going to take and run with the 2nd half player stuff. I don’t think the offers will reflect that fully, but certainly won’t be cheap cheap (like Walker). The 2nd half is also meaningless because it hasn't actually happened yet. They don't know what he will do yet, regardless of what he did in the second half last year. Now I do agree he's not going to be as cheap as Walker was, but the Twins don't have the leverage to ask for much and teams are not going to value his prior year 2nd halves over his more recent production. If they did, we should be selling Zach Davies once he's healthy.
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People are giving up wayyy too much for Dozier. That's closer to a Machado offer than a Dozier rental offer. Jones seems pretty fair but he's got a WHIP of almost 1.40 and has been really lucky this year. Plus he may not be back before August. Stroman seems like a nice buy low right now but he's been so bad this year he may not help much for this season.
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Curious, is every other GM of a contender who didn't outbid the Dodgers for Machado a "swing and miss GM?" Cashman, Theo, Hazen, Klentak, all of them? Or just Stearns?
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Doubt it, not if they valued the headliner the most. Diaz is at least on par with Burnes, value-wise. Good chance they valued Diaz over Burnes.
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Realmuto seems reasonable. Not a chance on Dozier. They guy is an elite offensive 2B and with Machado off the market he will still command a premium despite being a rental. Dozier isn't even close to Machado's level as a rental. He's owed about $4M more this year. He is having a down year and given that Machado brought back only one top 25 organizational prospect, Supak and Stokes for Dozier is more than fair if we're taking on all Dozier's salary. I like Dozier, a lot, I think he could be a really good acquisition. But no one is paying premium rental prices for 2 months of an average defensive second baseman putting up a .231/.314/.423 slash line this year. We would take on the salary and then it would be a little bit more than the Ed Nothingburger that we gave up for Walker last year. I actually think Supak and Stokes is on the generous side.
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That didn't work for them with Darvish and probably won't work with Machado who prefers to go to New York. Maybe they're banking on him falling in love with L.A. and preferring to stay, but there is a good chance they're renting him too.
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They rented Darvish last year for a deal headlined by Calhoun who I believe was also a top 100. I get it. All rentals aren't equal. The truly elite ones are short in supply and every contender is looking for that edge. So its supply and demand, I can understand giving up some quantity and a single top 100 if you want to roll the dice that it'll make the difference between a NLDS and World Series. Of course, even with the benefit of hindsight I say that the Cubs giving up Glebyer Torres to rent a reliever for a couple months is insane.
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Wow, that's actually a really underwhelming return after Diaz. Valera is pure filler, nothing more. Kremer and Pop are kind of intriguing arms but no sure thing. Bannon is probably the most interesting of the other 4 but an older High A guy leaves no sure thing he'll be anything. I'm not saying we should have beaten the offer but we could have fairly easily.
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Maybe I'm being overly simplistic here, but if we did have the second best offer as was reported, if by chance the deal with the Dodgers fell apart, that would presumably put us in the driver's seat, would it not?
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Heyman reports that the medical issue is with one of the complementary players, not Diaz. So that presumably makes it highly likely that the deal still happens.
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I would guess it depends on who the prospect(s) in question is/are. If it's the 4th or 5th guy in the deal, probably a quick tweak and a done deal. If it's with Diaz, then this could be significant.
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And what was the first best offer? Some local LA reporter said Diaz, May, Robinson last night while Heyman said 5 players to O's and no money coming back to LA (I highly doubt May is joining Diaz in a package that includes 5 guys when no money is heading back). But if its true that's 2 players in Baseball Prospectus Top 50, plus three others, which would likely make it pretty much unbeatable without including Hiura. Or Arcia at minimum
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This is fantastic If David is updating his offer, he's scrambling to find an acceptable substitute for Luis Ortiz.
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I'd like to feel excited about this, but even if he became available again, if Baltimore pivoted to the reported "2nd best offer", I'd be afraid to see what that is after seeing what the first best offer was.