We have Nelson through his age 31 season. I could see an extension - get a year or two extra of control. You can still trade him if you want at some point. But there is the risk of a Peralta-like collapse, and then you're stuck with a fairly large contract. Jimmy just turned 27, so he is likely approaching his peak years. While some people feel Jimmy can be a #2 type, I see him more as a mid-rotation guy. He's slowly, but steadily gotten better, but I'm not counting on him being lots more than what he is. Sure, he might have a year or two where he exceeds that #3 'slot', but then again, he might have a year or two where he has falters. But a solid #3 is a good guy to have. Nothing wrong with that. If the club feels that Nelson is a good gamble to keep producing, locking him up for an extra year or two is fine, in my opinion. I also wouldn't fault them for not doing any such deal, but if it happens, I'm good with it. I agree with it being a gamble, but it's also a gamble with big upside. If Nelson suddenly turns into a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy, he could demand quite a bit even in arbitration, and might price out of our range once he hits free agency. Of course, like you said, if he has a Peralta -like collapse, we'll be kicking ourselves. I really don't see Nelson quickly turning into the non-tender candidate that Peralta has, but you never know. So certainly any contract offer to Nelson would need to reflect that level of risk in the form of a team friendly deal. Give us a nice discount that still guarantees you financial security for life, or bet heavy on yourself and hope to break the bank later and not wind up like Wily. Leave it up to Jimmy.