owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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Will road teams continue having success (8-4 in the 3-game series era)? It feels like the home team should start doing better, but only 1 of the 4 series falls under the definition of "lopsided". I still don't see the home teams doing any better than 2-2 this year though, but with any luck we'll at least get a couple of game 3s. Det/Cle -- I'm taking Detroit in 3 here in a bit of an upset, but if they win Skubal's start in game 1 I think they can take the series. Bos/NY -- lots of Stanton and Judge bombs incoming. Yankees win 2-0. Cin/LA -- LA 2-0. I know the Reds are a bit of a trendy pick because of their front-loaded rotation, but the Dodgers are playing well right now and will take care of business. SD/CHC -- Padres in 3. We know this Padres group has a track record of winning short postseason series so I think they overcome one dramatic Cubs win and pull it out. I agree that the Cubs are the preferred matchup for us on paper though.
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My hope is that he gets some assistants around him that can coach, similar to what he had in Cincinnati. It seems like that has been recognized and possibly rectified...I like to think that this season is at the low point now and will get better. We'll see. I don't buy some of the other arguments in this thread. You rarely get hired as a coach in a good situation. Either you're replacing some legend who retired (impossible shoes to fill) or you're coming into some problematic situation that caused your predecessor to get fired. You do need the support of the program, the AD, the facilities, the NIL money, the fans, etc. Does Wisconsin support its football team to the level needed to be in the upper quartile of the Big Ten? Surely it does.
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J.T. Realmuto (1133 innings) is 31 innings ahead of Conteras who is 39 innings ahead of Raleigh.
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I was at the Mariners game last night hoping to see 61, but after Raleigh had a 370 ft flyout on the first pitch he saw, the Rockies didn't give him anything else to hit the rest of the game and issued an IBB which really irritated the crowd. I love the fan/media interest in a close MVP race, local media on both sides are putting out articles with whatever stats they can find to support their preferred candidate. There are a number of catching stats that make Raleigh look really good. Fun fact though -- Cal Raleigh is 3rd in MLB in innings caught, William Contreras is 2nd!
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The belief in the Mariners fan/media sphere has been that it's similar to the Judge vs. Ohtani race in 2022 where Ohtani deserved to win based on overall stats alone but Judge got the nod for the milestone HR. So many believe, as you said, that hitting the 60 milestone would break the tie in favor of Raleigh. To me it's a no brainer -- there's a reason no catcher had ever hit 50 home runs before, it's ridiculously hard to be an effective hitter with the extra mental and physical constraints of playing catcher. Then you throw in the added part about hitting 59 and 60 on a night when your team wins its first division title in 24 years??? Yankees fans can shove it as far as I'm concerned. Side note -- he's facing the Rockies' terrible pitching staff again tonight and word is that the Mariners are going to keep playing their starters as long as the #1 seed is in play. If he gets to 62 or 63 and the Mariners pass the Yankees I don't see how you can vote for Judge. Side note 2 -- at least on paper the Dodgers have Kershaw scheduled to start Sunday. Imagine that storyline if the AL HR record is in play...
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In the minors the success rate is: Catchers: 56% Batters: 50% Pitchers: 41% I'm guessing most teams will ban pitchers from challenging and batters will be instructed to only challenge obvious misses. Framing will still be important because close calls are unlikely to get challenged except in high leverage situations. Challenge success rate also needs to be factored into catcher value somehow. A catcher with a >75% challenge success rate could add a ton of value.
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Bielema's ceiling is a good but not great team.
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It would be interesting to derive a “fan comfort index” stat for this scenario. Basically “What is the probability that playoff odds will remain above 90 or 95 percent for the duration of the season?” Then you could say “we have 99 percent playoff odds overall, but there is a 15% chance of dropping below 95 at some point” or something like that.
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The Tigers still have 85% playoff odds and 63% odds of winning the division. Nobody knows how long their cold streak is going to last. It might end tomorrow. The 99.9% playoff odds are still more likely to be correct than not. Low probability events do happen quite often given how many teams and games there are. I do wonder if streaky teams are more common in September though. It seems like the pressure sometimes sinks a struggling team.
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The craziest stat is that in 4 days the Mariners went from 2nd place to the biggest divisional lead in the AL. It's going to be a fun week in Seattle. Houston had way too many injuries and it's honestly a miracle they made it this far. Houston does have an easy-ish schedule (playing the A's in Sacramento isn't easy) but the Mariners have the Rockies at home this week and only need to go 3-3 to finish it out. Detroit's collapse is really something. A 12 1/2 game division lead in the last week of August should be insurmountable. I bet they still find a way to get in with Skubal going twice in the final week -- a Cleveland/Detroit wild card series would be fun. And then in the NL you have the Mets' collapse, which would be a much bigger story if it wasn't being overshadowed by Detroit. I'm pulling for the Reds but it would also be funny to see the D'backs sneak in despite being hard sellers at the deadline.
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I’m sure the “Fire Fickell” chant will be great for recruiting this year. I feel bad for the guy, I thought it was a great hire as well but it clearly failed. He’s a lame duck now, 2+ years is an eternity in college football without results. There’s no easy way out of this either, Nebraska has been in this situation for the last 15 years. I would take the L and move on as fast as possible while Wisconsin is still an attractive job.
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At the rate they are going they will be lucky to get one win in their next 25 against ranked opponents.
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Just watched most of the Angels/Mariners series...the Angels looked ready to hit the golf course. -
The most painful part of the sweep is how much the Mariners fan half of me needed those wins. From the Brewers side, as long as they get a bye I don't really care, it's not surprising they slumped at some point and better they do it now than later.
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Please Brewers, do my Mariners a favor and help them out. Thank you. Also -- 100 wins please.
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Choke of the year perhaps.
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The real reason was the pressure to be a national championship contender which caused them to fire coaches who were loyal to Wisconsin and doing a pretty good job in pursuit of a radical program change that would supposedly vault them to the next level. This just happened to occur at the same time as NIL, which gave the programs with the biggest donor/sponsorship bases a huge advantage that they didn't previously have. It's ironic that we pointed and laughed at Nebraska for making a similar foolhardy pursuit, and now the same thing happened to us. Except Nebraska now has a better chance to actually improve because of their ability to finance NIL deals. And meanwhile, the playoff expanded, so if Wisconsin would have just continued to win at the level that they previously did, they would have no problem making playoff appearances. But those days are long gone now.
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Combination of many factors but I doubt Wisconsin will ever be competitive in the NIL era.
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I love how this team doesn’t try to play hero ball. Nothing to hit? Pass the baton.
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I came here to say this. Most obvious groove ever
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Today was a ~10% swing in divisional winning odds. Cubs started the day at 13% with a chance to get to ~18% with a win, instead they are at 8% now. They had 7% odds at the start of the series, so they gained essentially nothing.
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Game One: Brewers (Patrick) vs Cubs (Boyd): 8/19/25, 1:20pm
owbc replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Give me that review system NOW -
Game One: Brewers (Patrick) vs Cubs (Boyd): 8/19/25, 1:20pm
owbc replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Punt this game -
Game One: Brewers (Patrick) vs Cubs (Boyd): 8/19/25, 1:20pm
owbc replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Love the quick inning to send Boyd right back out there. -
Game One: Brewers (Patrick) vs Cubs (Boyd): 8/19/25, 1:20pm
owbc replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Nothing for now.
