owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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I do wonder if the other shoe will drop for the Dodgers down the line. In theory their finances are fine until 2038 when their $8 billion TV rights deal expires. And surely the revenue that they initially bring in from Ohtani will keep them afloat for a few years. But this isn't a $1 million/year deferral like Bobby Bonilla, this is some serious cash that they will own Ohtani in the 2030s-early 2040s when his ability to add value to the Dodgers is long gone. And given what's happening with bankruptcies, that RSN money is far from ironclad. Some teams have seem most of their RSN income evaporate overnight. In the short term, the Dodgers are going to be the late-90s Yankees, but this isn't coming without considerable risk to the long-term financial health of the franchise.
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The real people who need to put an end to this are politicians in states with high income taxes. As many have pointed out, the main reason this works for both parties is that Ohtani can dodge California taxes on the deferred part of the contract. So he's not taking as much of a pay cut with the deferral as one might think.
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I don't understand what you're saying. -
I'd rather have the money go to the players than the owners. Nothing makes me happier than knowing how many of these billionaires feel poor after having no hope of signing Ohtani. While having to address a TV/RSN crisis that is of their own making. I talk to people my age (millennial) all the time who say they are baseball fans but don't watch the games because they don't have a cable account, so no TV access. Here's my optimistic take -- in 10 years most MLB fans will enjoy easier TV access than today with no blackouts.
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The Dodgers are going to be celebrating “Shohei Ohtani day” in 2050.
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His name and bat alone is probably worth $300-400M. One wonders what kind of pitching incentives are going to be in this contract... I do think the Mariners are crafty if they did offer him that rumored 1 yr / $65 M contract.
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I'm just glad it wasn't the Dodgers. And it makes sense that the team that got him has the highest TV viewership in MLB and no concerns about RSN problems.
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I agree. The bigger cities also tend to be loaded with transplants. No offense to Wisconsin, but it's not a destination that people move to, other than Madison which is always churning people because of the university. Wisconsin is also up there in the 'state pride' rankings -- people who live in Wisconsin are proud of being from Wisconsin and cheer for Wisconsin sports teams. Texas is the only other state I've visited that is comparable. We've had that debate on the forum before with some arguing that one can't be a fan of multiple teams, but anyone who is a transplant knows that you tend to keep your hometown team and gradually pick up the local team as well, especially if the local team is not a rival of your hometown team. I don't think it is especially unusual for different sports to have different fanbases. NFL and MLB have the most overlap. The NBA audience is younger, diverse, urban, international. I've worked with a number of Chinese colleagues who have heard of Milwaukee because of the NBA but know nothing about any of the other American sports. Milwaukee doesn't have an NHL team but in my experience that is another sport that attracts a completely different demographic in many places.
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The NFL obsession is off the charts in Wisconsin. Ive never been anywhere else where it was so far above the other sports.
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Once Ohtani signs the floodgates will open.
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I agree that it would be harder to pull off, but not impossible. As noted above, they have figured out the WBC and the fans love it. if you dangle a playoff spot as an incentive then I could see teams moving around their rotation to win those games. As with the NBA, they don't really need to change the schedule much at all. Draft 4 pools and then play 'best of 3' series using the existing 3-game series in the schedule. Best series record wins the pool. Then, just set a flex week in the schedule in late summer to play the semifinals and finals, everyone else plays their regularly-scheduled games. All four semifinalists automatically win all postseason tiebreakers in exchange for having to play an unbalanced schedule. The tournament winner gets the automatic playoff spot which is the 3rd wild card if they wouldn't have otherwise made the postseason as a higher seed.
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What is the prize for winning the NBA one, other than the bonus for the players? Does the winner get a playoff spot?
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Exactly, they are just keeping open the possibility that he gets outplayed in spring training and there's no reason to put unneeded pressure on him to immediately live up to the contract. Realistically, the odds are >90% that he'll be in the lineup on Opening Day.
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His struggles are almost entirely mental. No shortage of talent, he's just trying too hard. For that reason he was easy to cheer for and quite popular with the fans in Seattle. A change of scenery to a more hitter friendly ballpark will help. Kelenic was being shopped last winter as well and I was hoping the Brewers could find a way to flip Wong for him, but we ended up with Winker instead. I assume we would have needed to take one of these crappy contracts to get him and we don't have the payroll flexibility that the Braves do. Plus we don't need outfielders anymore.
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I appreciate you talking me off the ledge here, but in the end it depends what they do with the money in free agency, which remains TBD. In my view the Mariners shouldn't need to operate with a Milwaukee Brewers level of frugality, but that's the situation their fans are stuck with. Given their salary constraints, the Robbie Ray contract is an abomination...and they are now rumored to be interested in Matt Chapman because even with their newfound $30 million savings, they are still rumored to be out on Soto and Ohtani.
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What would you do if you lost your right fielder to free agency and your left fielder is a 24 year old coming off of a 2 WAR / .745 OPS age 23 season with 5 years of team control remaining? Would you use him to dump $20M in salary, thus creating vacancies at both corner outfield positions?
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It makes more sense than Ohtani since it would fill the hole they just created. I strongly feel that Kelenic is a late bloomer and they just sold low on him…and especially since it was to the Braves who know what they are doing.
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The Mariners are clearly going to make some sort of expensive acquisition but I have zero confidence in it being a smart one. What kind of idiot GM gives away Kelenic for $20M in salary savings?
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I don’t think this is that hard based on what the committee says they value and what the rankings were prior to this week. Michigan, Washington, Georgia, Texas. Maybe you can make an argument for Alabama over Georgia but Texas really messed things up by making it impossible for Alabama to get in without Texas as well. Washington is a lock.
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Impressive how quickly this team is coming together.
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Yep, Chourio is going to lead us to the promised land. We can come back to this thread when he sends Counsell and the Cubs packing in the postseason.
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One comparison worth noting is that Julio Rodriguez struggled in the leadoff spot in 2023 and moving him down helped get him out of his slump -- the argument was that he gets to watch a couple other guys face the opposing pitcher first instead of having to be the first one up. So I think having Chourio standing there in the on deck circle watching Yelich do his thing is the right move.
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Robert Jr is an interesting comparison because he raked in the minors like Chourio is currently doing. He wasn’t an instant all-star in MLB like Carroll and Rodriguez but now that he had his breakout year those $20M club options are going to be no brainers.
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I can’t believe this is even a debate, we’re staring a franchise altering superstar right in the face and we have the potential to lock down his entire prime. The only Brewers prospect worth comparing to is Robin Yount, nobody else has done what Chourio has done as a TEENAGER. And we’re going to be paying $0 of his age 30+ years while doing him a favor by getting his service time clock going a year early. We just can’t be cheap and let this chance slip away. As several have said, soon as he hits the majors and starts producing, the price doubles or he simply won’t sign. Do it now.
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Yeah I agree on second thought -- but I still would be shocked to see Chourio sign for less than $150M. What's the point of risking hundreds of millions in earnings if you are not getting a huge guaranteed paycheck up front?
