Well yes, except the Brewers on a talent basis aren't 10 wins better than the Cardinals right now. There is almost no difference between the Cardinals and Brewers except luck and perhaps Axford.The Brewers are 10 games up. Someone said without Marcum we'd not be headed for the playoffs. I replaced Marcum's innings with a 5.25 ERA, and that's 40 more runs allowed. I'm not going to try to figure out who replaces who, what, where, why, when and how. There's no way you can measure the Brewers expected W/L based on that, seeing as we're already pretty far ahead of the pythagorean. I'm simply replacing Marcum's innings with 170 replacement innings, regardless if it's 130 from Dave Bush and 40 from a replacement level reliever, doesn't matter. ALL ELSE being equal, if you replace Marcum with crap, the Brewers would still be 6 games up. Of course the problem would be that it would be impossible to say "All else remaing equal" because not having Marcum would have other unknown ramifications on the team (Bullpen usage, salary used elsewhere, etc). I feel comfortable that without Marcum that we would still be in the race; I just have no idea how close the race would be. The offseason could have progressed so much differently it really doesn't pay to speculate where the Brewers would be if they had never completed that trade. In hindsight if they could have found a different starter similar to Marcum that didn't require giving up Lawrie that would have been the best of both worlds; not sure that was possible though. Plugging in Lawrie at 3rd instead of McGehee would be amazing.