Yep, those are two potential options for sure. SF and Arizona potentially have overperformed as well. If it comes out that he's retiring instead of coming back before voting takes place, I think he'll be the overwhelming winner as a recognition that he's been deserving any number of years and hasn't won yet.
Even if he's back, with the decimation of the starting rotation, their record in one run games, I still think he has the strongest case (assuming current positions hold).