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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    FYI, half my sample had ERA's under 3, and the average ERA was 3.84. No conclusion along with this fact, just saying. Well, that certainly suggests that the effect might by small but I'm sure you could find a could pitchers in your sample that were limited in opportunity by performance. Kind of hard to objectively determine which, after the fact, though. But because there are so many injured pitchers who never recover or return to form, the average age curve for all pitchers is actually positive sloping at every age (ERA on the y-axis). So I just went with a linear trend line. You mean, the sample keeps getting smaller (starting pitchers fail to qualify by pitching too few innings) but the ERAs go up? Those graphs are great, BTW.
  2. rluzinski
    And CC likes to hit but in the end, I would think that is only a minor consideration for a starting pitcher.
  3. rluzinski
    You never know what could happen but Sheets crying after the final game made it pretty clear that he didn't think he was coming back. I wish the playing environment had been such that he would have been compelled to come back (to some degree at least) but fans will be fans.
  4. rluzinski
    Not in name recognition alone, but name + talent that leads to more wins could. And I shouldn't have said just attendance - merchandising revenue and TV ratings and all of that goes into that $10 million as well. Teams pay between $4.5-$5.0 mil per win because that's around what each win is worth. CC being a huge name free agent may be worth a bit more but I don't think it's much more. And offering an opt out is not a win-win for the Brewers. A team and player usually shares the risk of a contract pretty equally. The player may get hurt or perform better than expectations. A player opt out shifts much more risk to the team, however. That's fine if the player is taking a below market offer in compensation, but it's not free.
  5. rluzinski
    There is no reason to focus on the last 5 weeks when trying to project the Brewers performance next year. The last 5 weeks doesn't add more clarity to the situation than any other 5 weeks from last year. You need to look at the big picture. Melvin's comments mean nothing. They never do in these situations. Most GM's are reluctant to show their hand. Melvin usually takes it a step farther by purposely trying to mislead people about his intentions. I just can't muster up enough energy to start panicking about the Brewers' off season in December. Plenty of time to wheel and deal.
  6. rluzinski
    Very nice work. For average IP, I'd be a little concerned about including pitchers who simply weren't good enough to get the opportunity to rack up 200 IP a year. I don't think CC will have to worry about that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Did you come across anyone's age curves for pitchers?
  7. rluzinski
    Very nice work. For average IP, I'd be a little concerned about including pitchers who simply weren't good enough to get the opportunity to rack up 200 IP a year. I don't think CC will have to worry about that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Did you come across anyone's age curves for pitchers?
  8. rluzinski
    Marcels says 4.5 ERA for Jorge next year. For $1 mil? He'll a fine 6th choice out of the pen.
  9. rluzinski
    I think he's right but wasn't Ken Rosenthal the one who said the Brewers were unlikely to even offer Sheets arbitration? I didn't realize that Sheets had to decide on arbitration so early. Why wouldn't he decline arbitration? He can get a good one year deal anywhere.
  10. rluzinski
    I think CC has nothing to do with this because Melvin is smart enough o know that his chances of resigning CC are basically 0%. It looks like Branyan got a decent amount of money and will have a good chance at playing time, so best of luck to him. I just hope this doesn't mean that Gamel will start 09' in the majors.
  11. rluzinski
    The way I read is tha 75% of the team is owned by a particular ownrrship subset, of which Mark A. is only one of them. Is Mark A. a 51% majority owner or a "I own more of the Brewers than anyone else " majority owner? And of course the recession has and will continue to effect the Brewers. I and others contend that it will effect them through a decrease in franchise revenue, as oppossed to available cash through the ownership group. Does the ownership group ever have to infuse cash into the franchise, even on the short term? Draft bonuses? Capital expenditures? I would think that's the exception, rather than the rule but it's just ignorant speculation on my part.
  12. rluzinski
    I don't hate WPA for hitters. It tells you who happened to hit when the game was on the line. It's interesting. RBIs are interesting as well. As long as you don't abuse either, there's nothing to hate.
  13. rluzinski
    What end is saying is that the Brewers are self sufficient ATM. Just about every baseball owner tries to convince the public that they lose money every year. I think it's a bunch of bologna. Of course, the recession will most likely cut into the Brewers' profits, so it could effect player salary. Also, Mark A. only owns a portion of the Brewers. Does anyone know what percentage he does own?
  14. rluzinski
    Their role has more potential value., since the result of their perfomance has a greater influence on the result of the game. Of course, even having those high leverage situations available is also contingent on the rest of the team's performance over the previous 8 innings. That's why we shouldn't get TOO hung up with WPA or saves. To once again compare closers to starting pitchers, it's a heck of a lot easier to ask a pitcher to get 3 outs than 18+. The average pitcher's performance as a reliever is significantly better than as a starting pitcher. An average starting pitcher could be a passable reliever.
  15. rluzinski
    I'm not understanding this facination with the closer and saves. Your best reliever should be in the highest leverage situations possible. The fact that the average LI for a closer is about 1.8 suggests that managers aren't misusing them too terribly. If, more often, they put them in with a 1 run lead in the 8th and the bases loaded and 0 out, their LI might be over 2 though. They'd be even more valuable than they already are. The save stat is just a crappy way to measure WPA. Just use WPA. A 3 run save adds almost no WPA. Yes, if two closers faced the exact same situations over a season and 1 blew 5 more games, the other guy was worth 5 more wins. But we want to know how much a closer IS worth, not WAS worth. Lidge isn't worth whatever his WPA was last year to any team this year. He WAS worth that much to the Phillies last year. The fact that we all know that he won't repeat his perfomance next year shows that we understand some luck was involved. Spead in performance is always greater than spread in true talent. So, a closer might face situations that are 80% more important than a starting pitcher, but the starting pitcher typically has 3 times the IP. That's why they get paid so much more.
  16. rluzinski
    "Even though i don't read up much on advanced stats gathering, i understand the basic premise being used when they say so and so position player or starting pitcher was worth X number of wins based on that players stats. When it comes to closers though, does a different criteria need to be used because these guys so often pitch in a situation where their inning pitched will decide which team ends up winning the game or not? " You can't use the 10 runs = 1 win rule of thumb for elite relievers. That only works for players who play average situations over a season (which has an LI of 1). Positional players and starting pitchers. Closers don't face average situations on balance. The average LI for a closer is something like 1.8. I think the average fan presumes something much higher than 1.8, though. It feels like closers are a lot more important than they really are.
  17. rluzinski
    What is Sheets supposed to say to prospective teams. "Hi, I have an injury history and I can't currently prove to you that I am good to go next year." Better to lay low until he's 100%, no?
  18. rluzinski
    It's already been discussed but if no team is willing to give Sheets a multiyear deal to his liking, a one year deal might be possible. As for it being primarily incentive driven, I don't see it. If Sheets proves himself healthy (as he's expected to), he'll likely get $15+ mil guaranteed, with a maybe few mil more thrown in for 200 IP, or something like that. Even if he's not completely healthy by spring training, I could still see mutiple teams willing to give him a 1 year, $10 mil deal.
  19. rluzinski
    What matters is run production, so projections should be measured by that. I know that tangotiger (insidethebook.com and tangotiger.net) has used wOBA, which is really just linear weights. Time and time again, he's found that many of the projection systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcel, CHONE, etc...) are all very close to each other. Marcel is as simple as it gets and it gets you 95% of the way. Keep in mind, binomial uncertainty sets the upper limit in projection accuracy. What I mean is, even if you know what the exact odd of a base hit is for a player on every AB, you are still not going to be able to perfectly predict his BA over 600 AB. Over 10,000, you could get pretty close, though.
  20. rluzinski
    Sheets is going to have to be able to prove that he's 100% healthy if he wants a good contract offer. He can't do that right now, so he's laying low.
  21. rluzinski
    That has to be one of the sillier things I've read in awhile. New York sports coverage is in its own little world.
  22. rluzinski
    The Brewers are not going to have two starting pitchers making a combined $40 mil, so I think it's safe to assume CC AND Sheets are not coming back. Also, I don't think ay team is going to sign Sheets for a couple of months.
  23. rluzinski
    This guy thinks Sheets is worth $15.7 mil next year: "Ben Sheets, 167 IP, 3.84 ERA, 15.7 mil, 45.9 mil. Yankees could probably get this guy if they waved Andy's 16 million around. But fear of signing another Pavano like injury case might deter them." http://lanaheimangelfan.b...-free-agent-pitchers.html Guess who's the number one free agent starting pitcher? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  24. rluzinski
    Yeh, minor leaguers are simply regressed 100% towards league average. And it's not that Marcels is a poor projection, since it's not setting out to be the best projection system to begin with. The creator says that it represents the minimum that ANY projection system should do. The funny thing is that it crushes many non-statistical based projection systems (ones that don't understand regression to the mean) and isn't really much worse than any of the more advanced systems for established players. If you them from tangotiger.net, he includes a "reliability" column. It's inversely proportional to the amount the projection is regressed.
  25. rluzinski
    Marcel ignores minor league stats completely.
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