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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I have to agree with End. Most Brewer fans still seem to think that if you pay a starting pitcher $10 mil a year, he better get 32 starts and have an ERA under 4. Sheets signing a 2/18 deal with the Mets would probably look like a fairly minor deal for many Mets fans. What they'll care about is just production. If Sheets gets lit up his first 5 starts, they'll probably lay into him more than he might be in other markets. But if he pitches well before geting hurt in August, I wouldn't expect the same reaction from Mets fans that Milwauke fans would give him. He won't even be their ace!
  2. rluzinski
    I'm not sure if he's reading messageboards but it's not like the local media wasn't carrying the torch for the fans. Every other question the media asked him during any point of last year had something to with his health. Past health, current health, future health. Even when he was healthy and pitching great, he was still being asked about it. I think he was just sick of being defined by it. Of course, if he continues to get injured somewhere else, the same thing will happen but at least he gets a clean sheet of paper this way. That might be worth a couple of million to him. Can't you just see it now? Sheets will sign a 2/$18 mil deal somewhere and put up a 3.5 ERA over 300 innings over that contract. That will prompt a few stubborn Brewer fans to pat themselves on the back for being right about Sheets not making his team better. It's practically inevitable.
  3. rluzinski
    But he gets the benefit of the doubt with a new team. A fresh start. If Sheets signed with the Brewers for $8 mil, he'd still get blasted by the media and fans even if he put up 3.2 ERA over 120 IP. More wasted money! Soft! Can't be counted on! It became personal a long time ago. Look at CC. Some Cleveland fans were starting to suggest that CC was a choker and wouldn't be worth whatever he ended up getting in free agency. What did Brewer fans think after a few months?
  4. rluzinski
    Yes, it most likely that The Big Unit was just speculating about things and got his facts completely messed up. The finger injury Sheets had is usually a result of rock climbing. Maybe The Big Unit thought Sheets was rock climbing between inning?. I think it's safe to ignore anything he says. And there are plenty of baseball players that don't stay in great physical shape. If you want to discount their value as a result, that's reasonable. To suggest a guy like that shouldn't be considered at any cost, confuses me. I really hope that isn't how Melvin is approaching this. At $9 mil, Sheets is only being paid to make about 16 starts.
  5. rluzinski
    As it stands, the offense projects to pretty good but the defense and pitching almost completely makes up for that. 81-85 wins is a good guess, IMO.
  6. rluzinski
    There certainly is no hard evidence. There's just been some clues. The fact that he was crying after the last game gave me the impression that, for whatever reason, he thought he had just seen his last game as a fellow Brewer. Public comments by Melvin and Sheets seem to support that, for whatever reason, they are not serious considering each other, at least at this time.
  7. rluzinski
    Here's a post that describes some of the problems with regression analysis: http://www.insidethebook...._linear_weights/#comments
  8. rluzinski
    I think we have to be careful with this whole correlation thing. A higher correlation doesn't necessarily mean that a point of SLG scores more runs than a point of OBP. I used multivariable liner regression in a long lost post to try and estimate the relative value of OBP and SLG but was scolded by those who know the stuff better than I do for doing so. There are better ways of estimating this. We know the average run value of reach batting event with some pretty good confidence. The best way to find these values is with a simulator, if you can trust "The Book" (which I do). They are very similar to the linear weights values floating around the web.
  9. rluzinski
    Isn't here is a reasonable chance that whomever signs Sheets will also get a draft pick in a year or two?
  10. rluzinski
    To clarify, all of those CS had tremendous value to the Brewers last year, so there's no question whether Kendall earned his salary, IMO. We cannot us his 2008 CS% to conclude that he has the best arm in the league, however. We should also not assume that his CS% or SB attempts will be anywhere as high as they were in 2008.
  11. rluzinski
    I don't like win shares in general and defensive win shares are very suspect, IMO. Most stat guys ignore win shares completely. And fatter is completely right. As a catcher's CS rate gets higher, there comes a point where it tells you more about the opposing team not choosing good times to try a steal than anything else. Now that managers leaned that Kendal's arm isn't as bad as his 2007 numbers suggested, attampts and CS% will lower.
  12. rluzinski
    Marcel projects Harden for a 3.0 ERA over 134 IP. That's worth about 3.5 wins over a replacement level pitcher (5.5 ERA). Olson is probably good for something like a 5.0 ERA in the NL, so let's call a Harden season ending injury worth -2.5 wins to this projection: http://www.replacementlev...early_projected_standings According to that, the Cubs would still be favorites in the NL but things would certainly tighten up. But because the Cardinals and Astros project so close to the Brewers (at least according to this), a Harden injury doesn't substantially increase the Brewers' postseason chances.
  13. rluzinski
    I basically believe that, too, but can it really be proven? After all, Gallardo pitched well as a 21-year old in '07 with the dreaded Estrada behind the plate much of the time, IIRC. About as easily as proving that Kendall was the reason for Suppan's bad season.
  14. rluzinski
    I think Patrick is asking the correct question. Who is available that will give more production/dollar? Last year, Kendall was paid to be between an average catcher and a AAAA one. Even if we assume that he had average intagibles (whatever that means) and defense, he was probably worth the money that he got. If the Brewers want more production from the catching position, they'd have to pay for it. And even if they wanted to, there really are no other options. Sign Pudge to start 80 games?
  15. rluzinski
    24 starts @ 3.6 ERA ~ 3 WAR If the Brewers can get 3 WAR (wins over replacement), cheaper somewhere else, signing Sheets would not make the Brewers better overall. 32 starts @ 4.1 ERA is just as valuable, for instance. No idea who that would be, though.
  16. rluzinski
    We will not miss Sheets as he will miss a portion of the season again with some injury. If Sheets never pitches a full season again but averages 150 IP @3.5 ERA over the next 3 years, he still has tremendous value. Of course, according to your vary narrow view, it makes no difference what Sheets will get paid next year. He can't possibly make a team better! It's a ludicrous position to take and it's a shame that we have dozens of posts trying devoted to trying to address your position. You don't like Ben Sheets on a personal level. As a Brewer fan, you feel wronged by him. Fine. I think we all figured that out years ago.
  17. rluzinski
    I know my bias is that nothing good comes from a strikeout and the putting the ball in-play may result in something positive for the offense. Which is exactly why no one in their right mind would argue that a strikeout isn't worse than a ball in play. That's not what's being debated, however. An out vs. an out.
  18. rluzinski
    They both get on base the same number of times. Player A probably has much more of the least and most valuable batting events, however (walks and HRS). Also, since HRs are relatively rare, there will be times when even a high HR batter won't hit one for an extended period of time, just by pure chance.
  19. rluzinski
    Average run value of each batting event, from 1999-2002: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html Look at the last row.... Single: .474 runs Non-intentional Walk: .33 runs So a walk has about 2/3rds the value of a single. If you compare these two lines: A: .225/.350/.450 B: .300/.350/.450 Both lines have about the same overall value. Player A has more extra base hits but Player B has more singles over walks. Of course, player B will be the consistent player, from day to day. I don't think there's any real value in that but fans sure do.
  20. rluzinski
    This is embarrassing.
  21. rluzinski
    If hardy was so anxious to sign a below market deal with the Crew, Melvin would have already bought out his Arby years plus a year or two. Without knowing what Hardy will want in free agency, how can we determine what route we as fans would prefer? It's all about the money.
  22. rluzinski
    I should have probably put my previous post in blue. I wasn't responding to your post, just giving my 2 cents. Bush is obviously a big game pitcher, though. One game doesn't lie! All he has to do is cut down giving up the long ball. He's a flyball pitcher who has half his starts in Miller Park. It is what it is. It seems like for average Brewer players, I spend half my time arguing that they aren't terrible nor are they great. Sometimes, players really are just mediocre. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  23. rluzinski
    Any team that projects to be .500 or better has a chance but I think it's well below a 50% chance for the Brewers.
  24. rluzinski
    Projections predict about a 4.3 ERA for Bush next year, which would make Bush a bit above average. Of course, that's worth $8+ mil a year on the open market, so his salary is a steal (as they usually are for a non free agent). Basically, he's the definition of a #3 pitcher.
  25. rluzinski
    I think if managers and coaches do have an positive effect on player performance, teams must be terrible at measuring it. What else explains that basically every manager and coach is hired to be fired? It would be like releasing Pujols if the Cardinals won 40 games one season.
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