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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    It's video game mentailty to suggest an outfielder could play 2B, SS or 3B. Same goes for a non catcher at C. It's not that crazy to move a good corner outfielder to CF, though. Plenty of corner outfielders can play CF and not embarrass themselves. Braun only has 1 year of experience in the outfield, though. He'll need a lot longer than that to develop the instinct to be even an average CF. Maybe he'll be the kind of guy who gets 10 starts a year in CF in a couple years. He might have gotten too late of a start to ever be a full time starter there, however.
  2. rluzinski
    If Melvin wants to touch base with CC'S Camp, all he has to do is make a competitive offer. As it stands, CC's agent has to be pretty confident that multiple teams will outbid the Brewers. They are probably pretty confident that they'll get a better offer than what they've gotten from the Yankees. Why should they jump at any offer right now?
  3. rluzinski
    Dempster will be 32 years old and had a career year. The chances of him having a sub-3.0 ERA next year is basically non-existent, which is reflected in the contract he just signed. I think it's very fair. He's probably a little underpaid the first couple of years and will be overpaid the remaining 2 years.
  4. rluzinski
    For Fallout, just wonder around and you'll be bound to level up killing random bad guys. You can get experience doing almost anything, though.
  5. rluzinski
    I don't see why 6/140 won't win. I'd love to put money on CC getting more than that.
  6. rluzinski
    Lost is dead to me. I watched season 1 of Grey's Anatomy and enjoyed it very much. Season two ended terribly and I couldn't even get through season 3. I stopped watching the Simpsons over a decade ago but found the first 5ish seasons brilliant.
  7. rluzinski
    Until reporters can agree what the criteria for being an MVP even is, I'm going to continue ignoring it.
  8. rluzinski
    In my mind there is no reason to think Prince will hit more than 50 again, especially if you look at his numbers in the numbers. He has never had a season close to what he did in 2007 You make him sound like a 10 year vet. He has 3 seasons under his belt and next year will be his age 25 season. The fact that he's already done it once at age 23 is a good reason to think he might do it again over the next 5+ years. He may not be a true 50 HR hitter but you don't have to be to actually hit that many.
  9. rluzinski
    Only six of the 25 pitchers who worked the international event posted ERAs below 4.00 over the first four weeks of the season. Among those who struggled in April were Johan Santana, Freddy Garcia, Esteban Loaiza, Miguel Batista, Gustavo Chacin, Oliver Perez, Bartolo Colon and Peavy. Most of them were back on track by the middle of May. I appreciate why someone might not want their pitcher in the WBC but I find the above evidence pretty sloppy. Should we even expect more than 6 of 25 pitchers to post an ERA below 4.0? That's setting the bar pretty low and many of the starting pitchers involved weren't anything special.
  10. rluzinski
    I suspect part of the back-loading in Suppan's contract is to make him harder to trade and to keep his salary under Sheets' salary. It has everything to do with the time value of money. Whenever you are evaluating any contract, you have to start with the present value of the entire contract. Why would the Brewers want to pay Suppan an extra $5 mil with 2006 money when they can use 2010 money instead? If they want to trade him, they can just throw money into the deal. At least they can use 2009 money instead of already paying Suppan it 2 years ago. Ignoring the Yankee tax, the best contact for a club is to pay league minimum for every year until the last.
  11. rluzinski
    Fans can't even agree from year to year who the clutch players are and how they determine it in the first place isn't exactly scientific. Heck, the playoffs showed me that Bush is clutch and CC and Suppan aren't, right? I mean, it's when the Brewers needed them more than at any other time, no? I don't completely discount the notion of clutch but the way fans define, quantify and value it is out there, to say the least.
  12. rluzinski
    Sheets is probably a true 3.5 ERA pitcher that had a 3.54 ERA after CC arrived, while pitching hurt over much of it. I'm not even exactly sure what people are suggesting but the notion that Sheets underperformed isn't even true. And I'm not even going to get into whether Sheets is clutch or not. I think it's all completely silly and irreleant. Teams are going to project ERA and IP. That's it.
  13. rluzinski
    I'm about 10 hours into Fallout 3 and just loving it. I've spent most of my time just wondering around and doing side questions, so I've barely touched the main quest. You can basically make a game last as long as you want to, with everything there is to do.
  14. rluzinski
    Player B has more total hits but player A has more extra base hits. It more or less evens itself out. I'd pick player B because the fans of my team would like him more. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  15. rluzinski
    I agree. I don't think he's as bad as many people think but it should at least be considered.
  16. rluzinski
    I think you are getting ignored because it's a hard question to answer. I think it's generally a bad idea to play your infield in but I have little evidence to support that opinion. Until we keep track of pre-pitch defensive positioning, it's a tough thing to study.
  17. rluzinski
    Just remember that these play-by-play defensive metrics don't care about the back end of double plays at all.
  18. rluzinski
    I stand by my prediction from June that one day we'll see Fielder on the highlight/lowlight reels with Canseco. Jose gets hit in the head on the 4-base error, Fielder gets hit in the face on a routine throw from his 3rd baseman. That's not a very bold prediction to make concerning a player that was projected to be a DH before he even made the majors. If I'm accusing others of being unbiased, I have to accept that my memory might be as well. I'm sure he lost some speed but I always remember him being clueless defensively.
  19. rluzinski
    If you take out every start from every starting pitcher who obviously wasn't pitching like himself, you end up with a bunch of projections that are all screwed up. If you are going to do that, you might as well take away the games where they also weren't pitching like themselves and did better than you'd expect. I appreciate trying to put some of the numbers in context but what you do is throw out large chunks of data on a whim. You've done this with batters as well. You thought Estrada's projection was too pessimistic because of injuries. You spent a lot of energy arguing that Kendall's performance in Chicago should be weighed more than in Oakland. As it turned out, his projections were pretty much dead on for 2008. I'm not suggesting that stat-based projections are as good as it get; that there is no other information that can be added to that projection to improve it. I just don't think you go about doing that in a very regimented way.
  20. rluzinski
    suppan's career era is .01 higher than the league average, 4.63/4.62. his era+ is 100 on the nose. he is exactly what he is, a league average starter who will take the ball for 30 plus starts every year. in the current baseball economy he is probably being paid almost exactly what he is worth. First, here is the NL average ERA for starting pitchers over the last few years: 08: 4.43 07: 4.65 06: 4.66 05: 4.25 04: 4.44 I'd probably use 4.5 as league average for a starting pitcher. Second, you do not project a 33 year old starting pitcher with 2200+ innings by looking at his career ERA. His FIP and ERA from the last 3 years: YR FIP/ERA 06: 4.70 / 4.12 07: 4.42 / 4.62 08: 5.51 / 4.96 Whether you use FIP or ERA, you are not going to get a 4.6 ERA projection for Suppan next year. 4.9 ERA? ZiPS says 5.04 ERA. He's not worth zero but he also no where near $12 mil.
  21. rluzinski
    Defensively, Fielder was never going to be great, but IMO he was a much better defender two seasons ago - his range was never good, but he at least caught balls that were hit/thrown at him, and he was pretty respectable at digging throws out of the dirt. Respectable at digging throws out? Everyone has their own opinion of course but I remember him always being bad at it. I remember thinking many times over that Fielder was making his infielders look worse than they were.... Hall during his first go around at 3B. The fans already so him as a very bad defender in 2006: http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2006_1B.html Maybe he was even worse overall in 2008 but he was never not bad.
  22. rluzinski
    Prior to 2008, I was always so surprised tb how forgiving people were about Prince's defense. Early in his career, it was always about how hard he was working on improving his defense. In 2007, it was almost completely ignored (which isn't surprising, considering his monster year offensively). What did Fielder do worse in 2008 than before? I don't think it's a given that he got to less balls in 2008, despite the assumption that his growing belly made that a given. In 2008, Dewan's defensive metric had him making 12 less outs than an average 1B would have (nothing to do with receiving a throw, just fielding a hit ball and it becoming an out). That made him one of the worst defensive 1B last year. But over the last 3 years, he's made 45 less plays than average., which means he averaged -16.5 plays /year over 06-07. According to that, he improved in 2008. That's some pretty decent evidence that he didn't get worse in that regard, at least. Furthermore, he's always been so bad at receiving throws that I personally can't say whether it was even worse in 08'. Maybe? I didn't notice anything significant. I think people saw his belly growing and his HR rate fall and became more critical of his defense.
  23. rluzinski
    Well fonzy, I hope your comments don't represent the feelings of the front office, since a few are concerning. 1. Fielder's defense was bas in 2008. It was bad in highschool, it was bad in the minors and it's been bad every year in the majors. I don't think he was any worse in 2008 than he's been in his a career. His defense has and will continue to seriously cut into his overall value. 2. Fielder is out of shape. Perhaps they were concerned by how fast he's gained weight but by offering him a contract through 2012, they were going to see him cecil-sized at some point. That was pretty much a given, no? 3. They overpaid for Cameron If the Brewers front office felt that they overpaid Cameron, I seriously question their ability to evaluate talent and/or gauge the cost of talent on the free agent market. Unless the economy seriously depresses salaries this off season, a league average player is going to cost about $10 mil. If we can take Melvins words at face value (which is always a gamble), he feels Cameron was one of the better CFers in the league last year. He's now projecting him to be below average for 2009? I'm guess that you and Gord weren't sitting at a bar, talking Brewers one day. Can you be a hair more specific about the source of this information? Friend of a friend of a guy who catered a meeting, or straight from the source?
  24. rluzinski
    His K rate has decreased the last 2 years; his BB rate has increased in the last 2 years. Not sure it's a fluke but it's concerning. I think he had a pretty lucky 2008. I'll say 4.7 ERA, which still makes him fine for a #4.
  25. rluzinski
    Was it supposed to be effective for the 08 or 09 season? If it was 09, would have been a bad deal for Fielder. As Flee showed, even conservative numbers make it a break-even deal for Fielder (a league average player will be making $15 mil a year by 2012). All it would do is push out free agency until he was almost 30. With the history of larger players, why would he want to do that? Even if it was to start in 08', maybe he left $15 mil on the table, so he could become a free agent one year earlier. I would have taken the money but I'm not Prince. He hit 50 HRs at age 23, so it's not that farfetched if he thought/thinks that he'll be the best hitter in the league by age 28. Maybe he doesn't like Milwaukee. Maybe he wants to be a free agent as soon as possible. I get the feeling that some want to make him out to be a bad or dumb person for not taking the deal. He could easily sign a 5/$100 mil deal in 2012 and retire a rich man. He's assuming some risk, obviously, but it's his risk to take.
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