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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Some may say it's a fair price but it's not a fair market price. I think you take Santana's contract, add 5 percent and it get's you pretty close. 6/$145 mil. People have been saying 6/150 for awhile now and I think they are right. Sabathia has little incentive to sign before Nov. 14th.
  2. rluzinski
    The going rate for a league average starting pitcher (about 4.5 ERA) these days is around $10 mil. I agree with Ennder that $14 mil a year is fine, provides that we aren't talking about a long term contract.
  3. rluzinski
    Not the end all-be-all but Perez's FIP the last 3 years: 5.61, 4.35, 4.67. The above suggests a 2009 ERA projection of around 4.5. That makes him around league average and worth around $10 mil a year. Crazy how much a league average player commands these days, huh?
  4. rluzinski
    Here's what Michael Lichtman uses for average run values for each batting event: so = -.288 runs FB outs = -.274 GB outs = -.288 for a lefty batter (he didn't give it for a righty) The groundball out includes the possibility of a double play. So according to him, a lefty with a 1:1 GB/FB ratio will create .7 less runs for every 100 strikeouts compared to 100 ball-in-play OUTS. That agrees pretty well with the 100 Ks = -1 runs rule of thumb. This has been verified every-which way. Multi-variable regression on actual games, markov analysis and simulations. If you think that over the course of a season , an average strikeout is significantly worse than an average ball-in-play out, there is no evidence that supports that opinion. If we are trying to measure the value of Cameron's offensive performance from 2008, we can completely ignore his strikeouts and lose little in our estimate.
  5. rluzinski
    For reference... http://www.insidethebook....ld_glove_awards/#comments
  6. rluzinski
    I don't think it's fair to call 5/$100 a lowball offer but I don't think it's going to get much consideration from CC. He'll get that 6th year.
  7. rluzinski
    Nobody takes the first offer so you have to start somewhere. In fantasy football trades? CC's agent has a pretty good idea what he thinks CC will get in free agency. I don't see what giving a lowball offer accomplishes. Ultimately, Melvin knows what he's willing to offer and CC knows what he's willing to accept. It's seem like you are suggesting that if Melvin offered 6 years and $150 mil, there's 100% chance that CC would ask for more. Just because he's suppsoed to. I don't buy it. Lowballing only has a purpose (IMO) of making sure you don't offer him more than he'd be willing to take. I don't think that's going to be an issue here. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I understand that many people would disagree with me. I'm just curious if there's actual evidence that purposely lowballing will end up with a more favorable outcome for the lowballer. Do business majors take a negotiating course or anything like that? This has to have been studied.
  8. rluzinski
    Is it really always necessary to offer less than you are willing to pay while negotiating? CC's agent already has a number in mind. CC is not going to be tricked by being able to add 20 percent to the original offer and think he won in negotiations. Sounds like how little kids try to negotiate the price of a baseball card. Am I way off? Am I breaking Negotiations 101 rules?
  9. rluzinski
    I'm not arguing that Sheets should be signed to a long term deal. I'm simply trying to form a consensus about how many IP an average free agent 30 pitcher should be expected to accrue, vs an injury prone one, like Sheets. It's not 220/0. What is it?
  10. rluzinski
    Yeh, that's the gift. No option to meet a Brewer this year. One change I noticed is that you don't get the Metevante passes with the field bleacher seats. That's what I had last year. We almost always just sat up in the Metevante outside area. I guess the jig is up.
  11. rluzinski
    And I think that only looking at the previous 3 years and assuming something less is a poor way of projecting future innings. There are a lot of other things to consider, IMO.
  12. rluzinski
    Braun and Gallardo have the two large pictures on the outside. Two very safe picks, obviously. Hardy has a smaller picture on the inside, along with another Braun picture. That's it. I know they want to choose safe players to show but I'm still surprised that there is no Prince picture at all. Braunjust signed an extension, so I understand why he'd be the featured slugger but maybe Prince is being more aggressively shoped than we realize? This also suggests that there's little or no chance of Hardy being traded this off season, to make room for Escobar. I assumed as much already but it's nice to see http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  13. rluzinski
    I didn't mean to suggest total seats owned, but whether you are a full season ticket holder, 40 gamer or 20 gamer. I also didn't mean to suggest that I actually KNOW how they determine seniority for the regular season. Just speculating on what would make sense. Who SHOULD get preference, a guy who's had a 20 game pack for 10 years or a full season ticket holder for 4? I just got my renewal packet, BTW. They are offering a 10 Metevante passes per seat for 20 and 40 gamers, as well as full season ticket holders in the terrace level. Just like last year. Other full season ticket holders get $70 credit for food and beverage per seat.
  14. rluzinski
    A small sample in winter league vs. recent production in the majors and AAA? We are the ones searching for numbers to support our argument? Every project system must have an irrational hatred for Gwynn as well., along with Melvin and everyone else.... For the record, if my memory is correct, so far we have: Against: Johnbriggs, Bucksman, AKA Pete For: Everyone else.
  15. rluzinski
    I hated Counsell starting but he was fine as a utility infielder. I don't think people realize that even below average players command millions of dollars these days. It seems like age is finally catching up to Counsell, though.
  16. rluzinski
    Yeh, it's really hard how to comprehend that people think Gwynn can't hit. We must be too busy looking at his numbers to fully appreciate his hitting prowess. Reality indeed. And I don't care how you, me or anyone else think Cameron's ABs looked like last year. I care about recent production and what it tells us about future expected production. How many runs is Cameron's projected production expected to score for his team? Part of the problem is that even some die hard baseball fans still don't know how to properly way the offensive value of various batting events. If you look at how many runs every MLB team has scored per inning over the last 10+ years and how they scored them, you learn 2 things: 1. A walk is worth (in terms of runs) about 2/3rds of a single 2. On average, a strikeout is roughly worth (in terms of negative runs) the same as a ball-in-play out (about 100 Ks = 1 run). If you dispute those 2 facts than you will incorrectly judge the offensive value of players like Cameron.
  17. rluzinski
    JB decided before the all star break that Cameron was bad, so he'll not be changing his mind anytime soon. Worst Melvin move ever? A league average player is worth about $9 mil on the open market, so it's hard to get all worked up about this. Well, unless it's gotten personal for whatever reason. Cameron proabably isn't a gold glove caliber CFer anymore but all fielding metrics seem to suggest that he's still in the top third. Could someone post his ZiPS projection? It probably is something like .330/.440? Pretty average for a CF. Average offense + above average defense for $10 mil? Very good.
  18. rluzinski
    It's a shame you got bad information from your ticket rep but unless you are a true season ticket holder (full), there's always a chance of you getting bumped. Unless you are a full season ticket holder, you don't own your seat. When it comes to senority, total season tickets purchased is more important than total years. As for marquee prices, the Brewers make it easy to avoid them. Buy a partial season ticket package. Otherwisw, they are just trying to shift some of that money being made in the secondary market into their pockets. I don't blame them. Unfortunately, there's no way to charge Cubs fans one price and Brewer fans another (and know they won't just sell them). Are we getting offered Metevante passes again to purchase season tickets early?
  19. rluzinski
    Instead of constantly arguing about what injury prone means or how severe Sheets' injuries have been, let's just focus on what really matters. How many innings pitched would an average 30 year old starting pitcher average over 3 seasons? What is our guess for Sheets? Here's my guess: Ave. 30 Year Old: 180 IP/year Ben Sheets: 160 IP/year So, I see Sheets' injury history as costing his next team 20 innings or about 3 starts more than the average 30 year old. How do you see it?
  20. rluzinski
    It's always Ok to sign players to long deals. If they prove not to be worth what they are being paid at some point, we can simply trade them to a team that doesn't have internet access.
  21. rluzinski
    Baseball is far and away my favorite sport but it's just too damn slow to be a good TV sport. I watch every Brewer game but almost no non-Brewer games. I kept track of many of they playoff games on the computer and would switch over to it if anything actually happened. In contrast, football is a great TV sport, IMO. I don't even really follow college football but can sit down and enjoy a random game. I watch a lot of NFL games. I love the Packers but read little about them. Basically the opposite of the Brewers. My hope is that MLB get's aggressive about speeding up the game someday. They should average 2.5 hours, tops.
  22. rluzinski
    I don't think Sheets is a 6 inning pitcher. He's certainly not a 130 pitch complete game kinda pitcher, though.
  23. rluzinski
    Here are my WAGs for ERA projections from the starting rotation: Yo 3.75 Parra 4.25 Bush 4.60 Suppan 5.0 McClung / Cappy / Villy About a 4.5 average, which is pretty .. average. I think they improve on that in the off season but no reason to act like that rotation would be terrible if they don't. The offense was pretty much average last year and I expect that Melvin will be able to improve it. Even if he returns roughly the same offense, I'd expect a bit of an improvement. Let's say the below average bullpen stays a little below average). To me the Brewers are around an 83 win team as they stand. Maybe 5 wins better with CC replacing a 5.0 ERA pitcher? 3 wins better with Sheets? Lot's of other things Melvin could do. Should be an interesting off season!
  24. rluzinski
    Park factors jump around from year to year, in large part because of statistical noise. You need to use mutliyear, regressed ones, like Patriot supplies. Miller Park plays as a slight hitters park brcause of the extra HRs it gives up.
  25. rluzinski
    Park factors jump around from year to year, in large part because of statistical noise. You need to use mutliyear, regressed ones, like Patriot supplies. Miller Park plays as a slight hitters park brcause of the extra HRs it gives up.
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