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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    This is an above average offense that got that way by hitting for power. I see no way that constently playing for one run is going to score more runs per game. Just because it was in a major funk doesn't mean that you give up on what's made them good for 150+ games, on average. And someone mentioned that they like watching small ball. I like watching small ball as well but I like watching winning more. Too many fans try to force a connection between what's the most fun to watch with what's the best way to win games. Teams like Oaklamd and Boston don't give outs away 3 times a game because they have smart people who have looked into the matter and know it's generally a losing proposition. It's not based on what they like to watch. If anyone really wants to see the evidence, I'll be happy to provide some links. If people already know that small ball is good, there you go.
  2. rluzinski
    Is that 12 or 13 sac bunt attempts tonight? I'm losing count. But let's all act surprised that Hall failed at it. The pitcher has now walked 3 guys in the inning, but the Brewers only get two outs an inning to score runs these days., so.... owell. Bring back Yost?
  3. rluzinski
    We need more sac bunts!
  4. rluzinski
    tangotiger.net has many wonderful charts. You want run frequuency, not expectency.
  5. rluzinski
    This is why I was so annoyed with Yost getting fired. He was an overall bad manager but at least he did two things right that other managers get wrong all the time: He rarely intentionally walked someone and he rarely called for the sacrifice. Svuem is just like Yost except I haven't seen him do ANYTHING beter than the average manager. He'll just do what everyone else does because that's how he was taught to. I could show him a book of hisorical data showing the general futility of the sac bunt and it wouldn't matter. He knows what he knows.
  6. rluzinski
    My guess is that he was trying to throw strikes but threw balls instead. It happens. His command was obviously shaky that inning... unless those were all mental mistake walks? And my comment about CC was questioning when it is a justifyable situation to boo. Once you decide that it's OK to boo bad performance, you can boo nonstop for 3 hours if you want. Every ball thrown, every missed swing. Is there a line when even the most boo-happy fan would know that there was something wrong with the situation? CC comes out tonight and has a bad night, 40,000 fans can boo him and there should be nothing wrong with that, right? They wouldn't of course, since booing has more to do with liking and disliking certain players more than anything else. An emotional vent for previous situations that left the fan unhappy. I think chronic booers should just admit as much.
  7. rluzinski
    Fixed. I should also note that, in the event of a tie, I assumed that the Brewers and Mets had an even chance at winning the tie breaker. Mets get to host, though, correct?
  8. rluzinski
    When the result of two games can translate into a 38% swing in playoff odds, it's a big day: http://i37.tinypic.com/au9pow.gif http://i37.tinypic.com/au9pow.gif In about 8 hours, the Brewers could either have a coin flip chance at the playoffs or be a 10:1 longshot. What is the Vegas line on these two games? I assume that each game is it's own even, uneffected by momentum. 99% of momentum is just natural bunching of wins and losses. Very difficult to try and prove that the emotional effects of winning and losing has an impact on performance. Maybe it does but it's very hard to show it.
  9. rluzinski
    Take 9 batters who all have the identical line: .275/.340/.410/.750. In 700 PA, each will make about 460 outs. What I'm saying is, the type of the out those batters make will have only a small impact on total runs scored by that offense. And unless you could control when the strikeout and nonstrikeout guys get to bat,it really matters little if your offense is diversified, SO wise. Having a diversified bench would help, so you can call up the contact hitter to hit with a runner at 3B and 1 out, and you can call the K machine up with runners at 1st and 2B up with 1 out. The majority of the time, there's either no one on and/or 2 out, in which case, it doesn't matter at all. Cam's projected line is what matters and it could be negatively influenced by his higher K rate this year.
  10. rluzinski
    My opinion of the sac bunt has nothing to do with last night..
  11. rluzinski
    4.5 back and chasing 2 teamms means it's way over. They made an amazing run and still came up way short.
  12. rluzinski
    I wish this situation could serve as an example of why you shouldn't jump to conclusions in baseball based on a quarter or even half a season. It's a very streaky sport by its nature. While it is very reasonable to suggest that Princes's weight is and will continue to have some unknown negative effect on his offensive performance, that's about all you can really say. Everything else is really just speculation.
  13. rluzinski
    Let's hope CC doesn't give up a couple of early runs. He'll get what he deserves.
  14. rluzinski
    They booed Bush? Wow. Nevermind. Just... sad.
  15. rluzinski
    Between Suppan/Sheets/Yo/McClung, it hurts my head to try and guess what Svuem does. I think it's just going to be a big pile of 2-3 innings appearances for most of those guys, which is fine by me. You have the extra arms, take advantage of being able to keep them fresh and being able to pinch hit for your pitcher in the 4th.
  16. rluzinski
    It was a weird crowd today. Pretty subdued, actually. They got plenty loud when the big stuff was happening, though. I didn't notice any booing though. Anyone else?
  17. rluzinski
    Unless you are a pitcher, I hate the sac bunt. That is all.
  18. rluzinski
    It's at least nice to have a few entertaining games to watch at the end of the year, no matter the outcome. It would have sucked to chew on a week ago for the entire off season. Of course, there's still time for the Brewers to implode again. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  19. rluzinski
    There is no way Melvin moved Braun to LF this year to just move him back to 3B the next year. Braun has been from OK to good in LF this year. Melvin isn't going to yank him around anymore.
  20. rluzinski
    I'm glad his last 17.2 IP have been good but if I'm making an objective assessment of his actual talent right now, it's not just not very good. He currently has a 4.13 ERA, compared to a 4.03 ERA for the 2008 NL average reliever. Before today, he had a FIP of 4.21 for this year and a FIP of 4.41 last year. FIP was terrible in 2006. Real quick take, he looks like a below average reliever. He's fine as maybe a 4th option but as the setup guy? Terrible.
  21. rluzinski
    "What have they got to lose, really? They played Braun and his atrocious defense for 3/4 of a season at the hot corner, so why not Gamel? " Braun negated a huge portion of his offensive value by being so bad defensively. Gamel could be just as bad defensively but it would be almost impossible for him to match Braun's rookie offensive production. Gamel easily could be a net negative. I don't know what the answer is but Gamel at 3B in 2009 doesn't seem like a good one to me.
  22. rluzinski
    If anything, that sure was a fun game to watch.
  23. rluzinski
    Maybe playing small ball in front of Braun and Fielder isn't a good idea in the first place? At least Yost knew that. I think Svuem just might be too busy trying to put his stamp on the team to notice.
  24. rluzinski
    Ender, your example is comparing a sure out (SO) with a possible hit (ball in play). I'm comparing an out with an out. Take a player with a known OBP and SLG and his K matters little with regard to total offensive value of his performance. A K is so valuable to a pitcher because the alternative is a bip that was a 30+% chance of being a hit. The more interesting and dificult question is whether a high K, high power hiter could increase his value by making adjustments. Could he sacrifice some power for more bip and and a higher OBP? That's hard to answer and depends heavily on the player in question. Who knows? Strikeouts (almost) don't matter... when compared to another OUT!
  25. rluzinski
    Sorry, I meant moving runners over via a walk or hit, not making outs. If you want to argue that a player getting on base more than Cam at the expense of power might be more valuable, that's more than reasonable. That's not what people are arguing though. It's always "his OBP and SLG is decent but he strikes out too much." That's the wrong way to evaluate offensive performance, as a player's K rate has only a very small impact on his offensive value, relative to his OBP and SLG. This has been looked at every which way (historical data at the season level, inning level, simulations and they've all concluded that K rate correlates to scoring so weakly that the vast majority of run estimators ignore it altogether. Perhaps some teams can better control when they make certain kinds of outs, better than the average team. Again, though, we are talking about some small effects. The higher the run scoring environment is, the less value productive outs have. A double is a productive out without the out. Blame the small parks and large playersif you don't like it. I'm not sure that I do.
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