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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Counsell/Kendall/Sheets is not going to produce too many runs today. Why is Hart even playing? Everyone knows he is going to make an out at this point. Weren't people saying that about Prince a little while ago? I think you have to ride with the best player, even if he is mired in a terrible slump.
  2. rluzinski
    I may have missed it but has anyone even mentioned runs scored in trying to defend Weeks here? If you think BA and strikeouts are all you need to know to determine that Weeks is a bad hitter, we aren't going to see eye to eye. You can capture better than 95% of a batter's value using the stick knowing two things: 1. What percentage of a batter's PAs result in an out. 2. What kind of power does he have( singles, doubles, HRs). You are going to say that's crazy, ethere's your explanation for why some can disagree with you. Based on Weeks' career so far, he easily projects as an above average 2B, offensively. The problem is that he can't field well enough there to justify even comparing him to them, offensively.
  3. rluzinski
    Does that mean CC'S start last night is enough to determine that he really wasn't what he was advertised to be? Even great starting pitchers have average to bad performances from time to time, especially against equally good offenses. To judge any starter on one start is simply unfair. As much as fans like to think it so, Professional athletes cannot just will themselves to a dominating performance.. You could tell that CC wanted to last night but the Cubs still got to him. They have a great offense and hit some good pitches. Over the last month, it seems like if Sheets doesn't pitch a complete game shutout, he didn't rise to the occasion. It seems to me that he has no chance of satisfying Brewer fans at this point.
  4. rluzinski
    I don't think there is a huge difference between the two, either. They are fairly close at this point in their careers, with Weeks having more upside because he's a decade younger. If someone wants to argue that the Brewers should go a different direction at 2B next year, you will get no argument from me. But to suggest that Durham is clearly the more valuable player is to ignore many of the facts. I mean, some still hold onto the belief that Durham is a decent defender, apparently based only on the handful of games they remember seeing him play in?. The Giant fans that saw him play for years thinks he's bad, so that seems a lot more credible than the opinion of a couple Brewer fans. And while the most recent performances should be more weighted than past ones, that doesn't mean you should completely ignore everything else but this year! Why does that even need to be said?
  5. rluzinski
    I don't care what anyone else thinks. That was more fun to watch than the last 2 weeks combined. Get em tomorrow.
  6. rluzinski
    OK.... Prince just has to hit a third HR. No problem.
  7. rluzinski
    97..98 MPH for Wood? This is the guy who's arm is basically duct taped on. The old man drives another one. Come on braun. be a hero!
  8. rluzinski
    And here's Kendal batting for himself. This manager change is really working out well.
  9. rluzinski
    Like I said, nothing has changed! It's just a new moron making the same stupid mistakes!
  10. rluzinski
    Phillies win http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  11. rluzinski
    As much as I hate the Cubs, they do move runners over and accomplish a whole bunch of little things that that Brewers usually don't. Maybe that's part of the reason they're where the Brewers want to be. They lead the NL in OBP and SLG. That's 99% of the reason why they score a billion runs.
  12. rluzinski
    CC batted for himself so that he could pitch for one more inning? What's the point?
  13. rluzinski
    Prince is on fire!
  14. rluzinski
    Durham has been pretty even from both sides for his entire 27 year career. Should we really believe that it's dramatically changed this year?
  15. rluzinski
    but to me picking on two words of the reason is a little over the top... What is the media supposed to do? Grill Svuem about it? That's the only explanation the TV guys listed (at least that I heard). If "shaking things up" was another reason, not exactly proving me wrong. And I'm not calling for the media to directly challenge Svuem. But all they did was state the reason and apparently.... that was good enough for them. No real discussion. nothing. I mean, you don't even bring up production at all? I swear that an explanation like that would not be the beginning and end of a discussion if it were the Packers making a change. It seems like football isn't crippled by a culture of cliches, though. Making a change to shake things up. Veteran presence. Give me a break.
  16. rluzinski
    Very cool. I'm sure you did bf.net proud.
  17. rluzinski
    That's the reason Svuem listed, so I'm not exactly going out on a limb in thinking that was the deciding factor. It certainly wasn't because Weeks was struggling, as end pointed out. As for my mocking tone, I'm mocking Svuem for saying it and the media for just accepting it as a an acceptable explanation. Who cares about actual production on the field when you can add presence to the top of your lineup, right? Hey, maybe EY is still available. And I don't need a statistical study in every explanation. I do want a concise, well thought out explanation, though. Not just another unexplained baseball cliche. Take for instance today's TV broadcast of the game. After Theriot sacrificed Soriano over to 3B in the 1st, Anderson said (paraphrasing), "That another reason why the Cubs score so many runs. They execute" nevermind that lee hits a double right after that, making the sacrifice largely irrelevant. The Cubs lead the NL in OBP and SLG, so presuming that the Cubs really do "execute" very good, just how much of a contributing factor is it? Who the heck knows because we are supposed to see "execute" and nod out heads in approval. Maybe that's good enough for you but not me.
  18. rluzinski
    If this was a situation where there was a consensus between the Brewer scouts and the coaching staff that Parra really was wearing out, I would feel a lot better about this. Unless Yost was the only hold out, I don't think that was the case. Parra still had good velocity but that is just one symptom of pitcher fatigue. Just not feeling good about this.
  19. rluzinski
    Because Durham can actually turn a double play. Weeks and Durham both stunk last year, according to the fans: http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2007_2B.html I think we might see Weeks a bit higher this year, when the 2008 report comes out.
  20. rluzinski
    Svuem says he want's a "veteran presence" on the top of the order. There you have it. Can't begin to argue against something like that, since it's more or less a meaningless cliche that we are all just supposed to nod in approval at when someone says it.
  21. rluzinski
    At this point, what is the difference between starting Weeks or Cameron in the leadoff spot? 5 percentage points in OBP?? If you assume that the best way to project future performance is by looking at only this year's stats, yes.
  22. rluzinski
    It may not have a large impact on runs scored but the manager is still supposed to pick the best lineup. The only reason why Svuem would want Cam to lead off is because he thinks Durham is the more "professional hitter" of the two. So Cam will have less runners on base to best utilize his power but Durham will have more opportunities to either move the runner over or hit into a double play. That's why I think the majority of managers are interchangable. They all think roughly the same. But I do agree that it's not worth getting worked up over. But you know what? Counsell is batting 7th, so this should be a day of celebration for me!
  23. rluzinski
    I guess our new manager saw Cam's low OBP and high HR rate and KNEW he was perfect for he leadoff spot. I don't think it matters much either way but it just goes to show you, the more things change, the more they remain the same.
  24. rluzinski
    I simulated it 50,000 with the skill set to win% to get the results on the sim tab. The number on the left are expected win totals (add .4 wins to the Astros). The 38.8% is the percentage for the Brewers winning outright. The others are for tieing with one other team. Didn't look at 3 and 4 way ties. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif There's a free addon called MCSIM that let's you simulate thousands of seasons very quicly. Easy to use. Yeh, it's a lot of fun to look at some of the crazier results. I like to picture the articles they would inspire. Here's one where the Brewers lose 2 of their next 6 but then win 5 of their last 6, including the win on game 162 to clinch the WC. I should just call this a grit calculator.
  25. rluzinski
    And Weeks and Durham equally stink at converting balls in play into outs. Why does it matter if one is not made on the back end of a double play and the other is not made because the fielder is so slow that he couldn't get to a roller in the hole? One type of nonout is just given more significance because it's more memorable. Tangotiger's fan scouting report says they almost equally stunk last year. Durham was worse but with their age diference, that gap may have even widened a bit. When it comes to judging defense, I'll take the opinion of a few dozen fans over one person's opinion anyday, even my own.
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