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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Now what? 15 day DL?
  2. rluzinski
    Opps.
  3. rluzinski
    Infield defense... so many errors.
  4. rluzinski
    Innings eater, not waste of AB Admittantly I didn't even look at his offensive value, which is certainly shaping up to be pretty darn good. It doesn't add 5 wins or anything but it certainly has value. Calm down, It was a joke... Where did this "Player X says hi" joke come from, exactly? It always seems to be used to try and dispute something that it really doesn't dispute.
  5. rluzinski
    Ryan Dempster says hi I didn't say that no starting pitcher will ever be able to have an ERA under 3 over 163 IP. I'm talking about a player's true talent level, stripped of sample error. Our best guess at a player's true talent. I don't know what Dempsters's true ERA is but if you want to take the under for the rest of the year and next at 3.0 ERA, you let me know.
  6. rluzinski
    2 game win differential. Let's not be silly now. My estimate was based on him having a 3.25 ERA. Through 8 starts, he's had a 1.55 ERA . You can certainly argue that my projection might have been a little too high but anything below 3 wouldn't have been realistic. A pitcher like CC can certainly throw up a 1.55 ERA over 8 starts but it would be foolish to assume that he will continue on that pace. He's a great pitcher who has still has an ERA of 3.01 for the year. He had ERAs of 3.22, 3.21 and 3.83 the previous 3 years in the AL. An NL team would probably expect around a 3.15 ERA from him, which makes him about as good as they come. In this day and age, no starting pitcher probably has a true ERA below 3.
  7. rluzinski
    CC is one of the best starting pitchers in the league and possibly one of the best hitting ones as well. What an athlete.
  8. rluzinski
    Everyone knew Prince was going to be big and continue to get bigger as his probably short career goes on. It's not like the Brewers didn't know what they were getting. It is what it is. We can either get angry every time it hurts the Brewers or accept it. I'm just accepting it.
  9. rluzinski
    Considering what the 'Stros and Rockies have done to get to the postseason, not even mentioning why the Phils found themselves in the playoffs last year, it would seem no lead is safe in baseball. Until a team is physically eliminated, they always have a chance. Take enough teams with a 1% chance at the playoffs and they will make it... about 1% of the time. That fact does not improve the Astros odds one bit.
  10. rluzinski
    Up by 3 on road, with the bases loaded and 2002 Bonds up, Tangotiger says to walk him: http://www.tangotiger.net/walkbondschart2.html But Hamilton isn't 2002 Bonds. Not even close. And if a grandslam only tieing the game, I think walking Hamilton was 100% the wrong move. It's really tough to try and even estimate this stuff without a simulator.
  11. rluzinski
    I refuse to give Tom credit for usually having Brewer information before its publicly available and posting that information on a blog. A 19 year old intern could do that. Anyone can do that. Whoopee. And the only reason newspapers are adding blogs in the first place is because most of information they write about is usually 12 hours old before it even gets into people's hands.
  12. rluzinski
    If the Astros still think they are in the playoff race, good for them. They are a mediocre team at best, with Carlos Lee. On paper, they are a very poor team. They are chasing 5 teams for the wildcard that are better than them. Baseball Prospectus estimates that they currently have a .2% chance of making the playoffs: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php Not 2%, .2%. If they sweep the Brewers, that might raise to 1%! I don't blame the media or Astro fans for treating this as a "cup half full" situation but there's no reason for us to pretend they are still in it.
  13. rluzinski
    Cooper is saying exactly what he has to say but it won't matter for his team, either way. The Astros could sweep the Brewers and still have almost no chance of making the playoffs. They are a .500 team that would have to outplay 5 other teams. Even with a sweep, you are looking at 20:1 odds at best. The Astros can be as "hot" as they want. It doesn't make their chances of beating the Brewers are winning the wild card any better.
  14. rluzinski
    Wow, what an uncomfortable game. Sure is less uncomfortable when it ends in a win, though! Crazy.
  15. rluzinski
    Bush has been good. The offense has been bad. Go Brewers.
  16. rluzinski
    How is it that you are ONLY up 4.5 games when the team chasing you ranks 6, 11, 8, 2, 4, 3, 6 and 8 respectively across those eight categories? The delta is gigundous. 6th in runs and 3rd in ERA + slightly inflated record + 4.5 games = 1st in runs and 1st in ERA. That doesn't sound way off to me. The Brewers are a very good team but I'm not convinced they are the 2nd best team in the National League. Maybe the 3rd or 4th. The Brewers have gotten a little lucky in 1 run games, IMO, inflating their win record a bit. Still, a very good team, especially with CC. The Cubs are easily the cream of the crop, though, and a 4.5 game lead isn't insignificant. It's huge. BP predicts about 98 wins for the Cubs and 93 wins for the Brewers.
  17. rluzinski
    I read the title of this thread the same as the question, "Do you want to walk 2 steps or 4?" And I doubt that the Cubs will be playing for anything during that last series. You'll be seeing a lot of players getting rested.
  18. rluzinski
    My question wasn't whether Sheets has ever given up a leads late or big innings. It's whether he does it more often than the average top pitchers (say, top 25 or so). Sheets has blown up 2 or 3 times this year, which unfortunately is all it takes for some to start claiming that so-and-so "always" does whatever. I think it just comes down to unrealistic expections, as it usually does. It's being compounded by Brewer fans who've seen CC'.s 7 starts and think the best pitchers in the leauge should have an ERA under 2 and should pitch complete game shutouts every other outing. CC is one of the best (better than Sheets and most every other pitcher) AND he's piching over his head. What kind of measuring stick is that?
  19. rluzinski
    Yes, because a true ace knows when to "step it up" and hold a small lead late. Yipee.. more cliches! And since when did Sheets always have this problem? I'm sure you'll be happy to show some evidence. Or not.
  20. rluzinski
    I don't think comparing Sheets to the reigning AL Cy Young winner makes a lot of sense. No, Sheets is not among the 5 best starting pitchers in the league. But to ptretend that a true ace never gives up 3 runs in 6 2/3 IP is just plain ignorant. As someone else said, grit, focus , killer instinct.... blah, blah. Cliché after cliché.
  21. rluzinski
    Well, Coushan(sp) Schroeder and Anderson just love themselves some Counsell: Coushan: "He's the kind of guy you want playing when deep into a playoff race. Two time World Series winner." Schroeder: "Counsell does everything right." Anderson: "He wins ball games."
  22. rluzinski
    Yes, batters should never swing 3-0, so pitchers can always throw an 85 MPH fastball for a strike. Makes a lot of sense. Cam got his fastball and missed it. It happens.
  23. rluzinski
    Choosing Counsell and Nix to bat just before your best hitter has got to some kind of inside joke.
  24. rluzinski
    I wouldn't worry about draft position. I would worry about your team being willing to give any kind of prospects in a trade when the Astros post season chances were over two months ago. That's what this thread is all about
  25. rluzinski
    Are we talking about hope for the fans or realistic hope? Had the Brewers completely tanked, the Astros still would still be out of the playoff picture. Fans focus too much on GB and not enough on teams ahead. If you are 3 games back and in second place of the divisional race, you need 6 games to your way to tie( you win 3, opponent loses 3). Say that you are looking at the wildcard race and have 3 teams 2 games ahead of you and a third team, 3 games ahead. Completely different situation. You now need 12 games to go your way (you win 3 games and your opponenents lose 9 games). It's comparable to be being 6 games back (12/2). It's fun to see your team 4.5 games back or whatever, but it doesn't mean much when there are a bunch of teams you need to leapfrog. We had this argument about the Brewers a few years ago (2005?).
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