Jump to content
Want to get your head around free agents the WORLD CHAMPION Brewers can spend on this winter? Click here and check out our top 75 free agents ranking! ×
Brewer Fanatic

rluzinski

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,362

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Of course they don't. Teixeira's contract probably pays him more than he projects to be worth while Fielder will probably make somewhere close to what he's worth over the next 1+ years. If those assumptions are correctI, Fielder is worth more in a trade. I was saying that in reference to those who look at Teixeira trades in the past and thinking that is what a Fielder trade will bring in. I'm saying that Teixeira is a better overall player and Fielder's trade value isn't what Teixeira's was in the past. Not comparing their trade values in 2010 Sorry. Got ya. That's what I get for jumping into a thread midstream.
  2. rluzinski
    It's starting to become a pipe dream to even root for .500 at this point.
  3. rluzinski
    Of course they don't. Teixeira's contract probably pays him more than he projects to be worth while Fielder will probably make somewhere close to what he's worth over the next 1+ years. If those assumptions are correctI, Fielder is worth more in a trade. As for the team being unlucky, I would presume they have been at least a little. Most preseason projections had them around 77-80 wins (IIRC) and they are currently on pace for 71. I'll take the easy way out and simply say that their collective talent is better than 71 wins. Of course, if you take all the teams that are on pace for 71 wins or less, they will most certainly win more than that next year. The farther away anything is from average, the more likely luck played a part.
  4. rluzinski
    Now you are just being silly. Yo's career .237 OBP is that sexy to you, huh?
  5. rluzinski
    We got behind because of him. The game tonight showed some great stats as to why this team struggles...it is hitting. I think the real problem is all those home runs. Jeepers. Whatever stats they showed you were misleading, to say the least. Baseball fans will forever complain about an inconsistent offense but there's no such thing as an offense that scores 5 runs every game. They are a myth. It should be obvious what they problems are with this team. Their hitting is probably the only thing that's been good.
  6. rluzinski
    Except that advanced defensive metrics shows Braun as well below average and Jenkins as well above average. I won't pretend to have a better memory than anyone else but I remember Jenkins as being the kind of defender that played deep because he was more comfortable aggressively coming in for a ball. Whatever his strategy was, it apparently worked.
  7. rluzinski
    HOW IT PLAYS OUT: In this scenario, Lumbergh comes onboard and everyone quits by the end of the eighth season, giving the show it's final season-long plotline. It obviously doesn't have to be Lumergh but to actually PLAN for the series to go only 1 more season after Micheal is kind of brilliant?
  8. rluzinski
    I don't really understand what message you are sending Escobar by sending him down. Try harder? He's already burned a year of service. Let him work through his struggles and hope the practice helps for next year.
  9. rluzinski
    I think the Brewers are well beyond any reasonable chance at the playoffs. If they play themselves back into the race, it would be a result of some completely improbable run.
  10. rluzinski
    Jenkins was no superstar but was solidly above average (in no small part because of his very good defense). He also struck out a lot instead of weakly grounding out to SS, which is also a big no no for some fans. I think he just provided an emotional outlet for Brewer fans who were frustrated with the perennially bad Brewer teams of the 90's. And based on a couple of posts in this thread, it appears that a few are still bitter. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  11. rluzinski
    Nda I think that Hunt article is representative of the kind of silliness he always writes. He's just trying to appeal to the emotions of the common fan. He's written those kind of articles hundreds of times. I want to learn something about the Brewers, not have writers try and validate my emotions.
  12. rluzinski
    What are the homebrew options for reasonably light beers? Something with flavor, like Guiness or Corona Light.
  13. rluzinski
    Spanish just makes too much sense. Whether it's business or pleasure, you have a decent chance of actually getting to use your newly learned language skills if you want to. Hell, you can watch Telemundo!
  14. rluzinski
    10% chance of going into the all star break 3 under. The Brewers are going to have to take 3 of 4 against the Cards for any chance. Not... looking... good. And yes, I can only HOPE they trade anyone they can get value for.
  15. rluzinski
    So Macha used some stats that showed a small sample. At least he's not just guessing in the dugout--he's using SOME sort of data analysis (even though it doesn't show much, it does show a tiny bit.) The problem is that the result of 10ish AB is basically random. It's almost like giving credit for a manager for flipping a coin when he writes the lineup.
  16. rluzinski
    A month ago, the Brewers record said they'd win 60 games. I think the Brewers EASILY have 75 wins in them! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  17. rluzinski
    Prince's current line is .260/.387/.484/.871 and he has a rest of season ZiPS projection of 273/.384/.539/.923. I think there are teams that would find that valuable, even with his suspect defense. Most teams realize he's neither a true 30 HR hitter nor a 50 HR hitter. Probably 40.
  18. rluzinski
    You don't get a 4-4.25 ERA pitcher for $5.25 mil. And Hoffman's performance this year makes Wolf's look Cy Young Worthy. Hoffman has a 6.97 FIP this year and his ZiPS rest of season ERA projection is 4.37. That suggests he's not good enough to close but worth keeping on the team. Really, suggesting that the only reason Davis and Wolf are still starting is because of their contracts..... it just doesn't hold any water. Just look at their respective ZiPS rest of season projections: Wolf: 4.6 ERA Davis: 4.56 ERA (surprised he has a better projection than Wolf... ouch) Are those projections also biased by player salaries or do you think the Brewers have 5 starters who project better? Hell, the Brewers have only 1 starter with a better ZiPS projection Parra has pitched well recently (no matter how hard Witrado pretends he hasn't) but those few starts can't undo his bad 2009 season. This is just mostly populist rage being directed towards underperforming millionaires, IMO.
  19. rluzinski
    Another results based scouting report. So you are also suggesting that Wolf has proven himself to be not among the 5 best options available to start for the Brewers?
  20. rluzinski
    I've said it before and I'll say it again. Contracts usually decide who plays because of what that contract says about the team's estimate of the player's SKILL. Melvin signed Wolf to a 3 year, $30 mil deal because he thought Wolf was something like a 4.0-4.25 ERA pitcher this year. You seem to be suggesting that a 4.92 ERA over 16 starts could rightfully convince Melvin that Wolf is really not one of the 5 best starting pitchers on the Brewers? That seems completely unbelievable to me. Now, if you want to suggest that the only reason Suppan had a chance to start this year was because of his contract, I would agree with you...
  21. rluzinski
    The school of thought that you always need three years of data to validate an evaluation of where a player's skill lies will always miss this talent, or will be too late to recognize it and too late to see when the talent is all used up. No one is advocating that teams should fire their entire scouting department and use only sample statistics to evaluate players. That is ESPECIALLY true for young players. But if you ARE going to use a player's stats to make a guess on future performance, you are better off using a larger sample. Use too small a sample and the "luck" part of the stats tends to drown out the "skill" part (knowing that a batter is a true .260 hitter .040 isn't very helpful).
  22. rluzinski
    We are going to hand 100 of Weeks' PAs (over a season) to Escobar, so that he can get an extra fastball every couple of ABs?
  23. rluzinski
    There is no debate regarding WHETHER luck played a role, because the laws of the universe dictate that it had to, one way or the other. The question is only, how much of the no hitter can be attributed to skill and how much to luck and other factors outside the control of the pitcher (fielding, skill of the batters, etc…). Even the best pitchers in the league expect some balls in play to find holes. No matter how good their stuff is or how crappy the batter hits the ball, some balls are going to eventually fall. For a particular game, sometimes a pitcher gets more of his share of hits than he deserves and sometimes every ball finds a defender. I think every baseball fan knows this. We see it every game. The league average BABIP is something like .300? (depends on if you are including HRs or not). The lowest qualifying BABIP last year was .257 (Wolf must have really been unhittable last year). Let's pretend that Jackson was just unbelievably "on" and had a true average expected BABIP for that game of .200. Roughly, the odds of having none of those 20 BIPs fall for a hit would be .8^20 = 1.1%. Even with Jackson pitching out of his mind, we'd expect about 4 hits. Even if we assume that Jakson pitched the best game of any starter in the league this year, he still needed a little help from lady luck. There is nothing controversial or complicated about it.
  24. rluzinski
    Home Record On May 19th: 4-12 Home Record Since: 12-6 A team that starts the season off by winning only 25% of their first 16 home games goes on to win 66% of the next 18. Folks, this kinda stuff is almost ALWAYS random. I just shake my head when I hear a "professional" gambler say that you should bet against some team because they've been struggling at home or at night or whatever. That's a bunch of hogwash. Search for all the crazy splits you want and you'll be looking at 99% statistical noise. Descriptive, not predictive. In a similar vein, the Brewers started the year, 15-25 and a pitiful .375 Win%. On pace for 61 wins. Since then , they've gone 19-16; a .542 win%. Now, I don't think the Brewers are an above average team anymore than I think they are a .375 win% team. Almost any team that starts off great or terrible is bound to play closer to .500 going forward. Simple math.
  25. rluzinski
    Up to a 22% for 11 wins! 3 games under, here we come! "I consider this a good thing. I fully expected Suppan to go 7 solid innings against the Brewers, it would only make sense in a Murphy's Law type way. " Hell no it's not a good thing.
×
×
  • Create New...