7/6/07 Brewers (Bush) @ Nationals (Bacsik): 6:05 PM CDT

[wOOgiE22]

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Beat the Nats!!

[trwi7]

Have we ever faced Bacsik?

 

If not we're screwed.

 

Go Brewers, please don't suck.

 

Oh yes and for the think pink. Here we go. Can't wait for the pink graphics tomorrow Woogie.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

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[PrimetimeHater]

Well...after yesterday I am beardless. Apparently nothing I do is inspiring the Brewers.

[thablingster]

Damian Miller is the only Brewer to have faced Bacsik, and he's 0-2.

 

The Nats overall hit Bush pretty well in a small sample.

[And That]

I think I'm staying with the beard until the Brewers either clinch or get clinched out. This whole not shaving thing has really done wonders for waking up later in the morning.

[rluzinski]

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Pitching Probables:

Game 1: Bush ® vs. Bacsik (L)

Game 2: Suppan ® vs. Simontacchi ®

Game 3: Capuano (L) vs. Redding ®

 

No Sheets probably means about a one in three chance of the Brewers losing this series and Brewerfan.net exploding during the All Star break with a billion doomsday predictions. Yipee!

[Lil Dummy]

Take heart, Brewer fans. PNC Park is a disease for our beloved Crew, but playing the Nationals is going to be the cure.

 

I haven't figured out the particulars yet, but I'd bet good money (as opposed to bad money) that Milwaukee wins 2 of 3 here, and takes at least a 4.5 game divisional lead into the Break.

 

Based on the pitching matchups, tonight is probably the best bet for a loss - so if they pull it out, I'll get greedy and start thinking sweep. Having to start either Jenks or Gross against a lefty is nauseating - hope Ned goes w/ Jenks and plays Hart in center, before giving GG back to back starts on Saturday and Sunday.

 

This has the feel of an "unlikely hero" game. I'll say Mench. Why not?

[hawing]

Ah, Russ, the statistics you've posted the last day or so have soothed my Brewers spirit. Thanks. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Psst, Brewers! You're out of PNC for a couple of months now. Things can only get better.

[SlideBernieSlide]

I have safely landed in DC and will be in attendence tonight at RFK. I'm going to pray that Bush's curve is biting and the now crushing Meathook has an off-night at the plate.

 

If FSN-WI shows a guy with a Miller Beer Pen Blue ringer Tee and a 1980's Road Cap along the 1st base side. Thats me

[fondybrewfan]

Also here is to hoping LaRoche continues to crush the ball

[iluvlamp]

crush! whimper! win!

[sgtcluels]

Here's to good Bush showing up. Lets get to the break with a little bit of momentum. With Bush on the mound, is Gallardo and CV available? CV should be, but what about Gallardo?

[jjgott]

I live in DC so I will be there all three games. Would've liked to see Sheets pitch but oh well. Here's to the start of a sweep to lead us into the break!

[Kpanz20]

Villanueva went 1 inning yesterday and 22 pitches. Gallardo went 2.2 innings and 54 pitches 3 days ago. I'm sure Yo is available but not the first option if Bush gets in trouble.

 

Btw... Matt Wise has given up only 1 earned run in his last 8 appearences and is currently sporting a very nice 2.92 era.

[Oldcity]

Matt Wise continues to be an underrated stud. As long as the Brewers don't get swept I won't be overly upset, but if they win the series I'll feel good going into the break.

[trwi7]

Quote:

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Matt Wise continues to be an underrated stud. As long as the Brewers don't get swept I won't be overly upset, but if they win the series I'll feel good going into the break.

---

 

I agree about Wise. I've always liked him though I wish he could pitch more than he does.

 

However I will be pissed if we lose a series to the Nationals. Even Russ' handy dandy probability checker has us at about a 70% chance to win the series and that thing never lies!http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Kpanz20]

Russ - I was hoping you could clarify something for me on your probability chart...

 

You have the Brewers series win probability listed at 63.6%

 

Then you have the probability of a sweep at 25.7% and winning 2 games at 44.2%. So the probability of a sweep or winning 2 games = 69.9%.

 

What I don't get is why there is a higher probability (69.9%) that the Brewers win at least 2 games then if they win the series (63.6%)? Shouldn't those 2 numbers be the same?

[rluzinski]

What I don't get is why there is a higher probability (69.9%) that the Brewers win at least 2 games then if they win the series (63.6%)? Shouldn't those 2 numbers be the same?

 

It's not very clear but 63.6% is the probability that the Brewers win any one game in the series. From that one number, I construct the probabilities for all the series possibilities. For instance, the probability of a sweep would be .636^3 = 25.7%.

 

I don't really highlight the individual game probabilities since, in actuality, they are heavily influenced by the pitching match ups (check the daily Vegas lines if you don't believe me). My probabilities essentially assumes that a every pitcher pitches every game, weighted by the number of innings each has pitched so far. Hell, Aquino gets to pitch for about 1% of the game today!

 

It's meant to give people a rough idea of the relative strengths of each team and how that translates over a series. Even though the Brewers are huge favorites for each game, the Nats still have at least a 30% chance of winning the series. As I know many are fond of hearing, that's baseball! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[wOOgiE22]

The pink IGT is up and running!

[wibadgers23]

I'm assuming we'll see Jenkins, Hart, and Mench in the outfield tonight?

[hawing]

I'm assuming we'll see Jenkins, Hart, and Mench in the outfield tonight?

 

Sounds plausible. One little part of me is anticipating a few new OF platoon nicknames over the next week or two, like Grench or Gwynch.

Either makes me want to sing "You're a mean one, Mr. Gwynch (or Grench)."

[Kpanz20]

Quote:

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It's not very clear but 63.6% is the probability that the Brewers win any one game in the series. From that one number, I construct the probabilities for all the series possibilities. For instance, the probability of a sweep would be .636^3 = 25.7%.

---

 

Ah, I see. The chart makes it look like those are all series probabilities... I understand now that 63.6% is the prob. of one game.

 

Despite the influence of pitching matchups it does give you a nice raw look at the outcome of the game.

 

Here's to Aquino comin through for the crew tonight!

[IslandsAC]

I'll be the first to call a great start by Bush to get the Brewers back on track:

 

7.2 IP 2ER 4H 6K 1BB

 

Weeks is going 2-4 with a huge HR.

[trwi7]

I think Weeks going 2-4 with a homerun is more of a surprise than a good start by Bush.

[Nearsighted Views]

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