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Are we overreacting?


naivin

Knowing that a team is never quite as good as they may look when everything is going right, nor quite as bad as they look when everything is going wrong, on the heels of Gallardo's injury coupled with the tailspin that has followed, are we overracting to the last week in Brewerland?

 

Just a couple numbers from this date last year...

 

Brewers: 24-10 6.5 games in front

Cubs: 16-15 6.5 games back

Phillies: 15-19 6.5 back

Rockies: 14-20 6 back

 

Obviously the trajectory is not good, but there is always the possibility that we have just had a very, very bad week. It was just one short week ago that things were looking awfully good. What has happened since then has been horrible (I am convinced the Sweep Suits found their way onto the flight out of Chicago), and I know Gallardo's injury changes things, but are we putting too much stock in the last week?

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Quite possible.

 

On the other hand, the position the Brewers occupied for much of the season right up until the flight to Houston was kind of a head-scratcher in itself. Given their numbers, having that good a record at that point may have been a mirage as well. I think some of the psychology here, the basis of which rests on a story arc going back to last season, plays a huge role in fan perception and reaction.

 

It was a very, very bad week by any measure. It seems to me though that the question is whether it was a (for example) 1 in 1000 bad week for a mediocre team or a 1 in a million bad week for a pretty good team.

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Yes, I think there is some overreaction going on. Thank you for putting some perspective on the season thus far. I may now be able to enjoy going to the game tomorrow. Getting 3 of 4 from the Cards will go a long way in helping me forget this last horrific week.
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Some of it might a bit far fetched in terms of overreacting, but I think one of the main reasons I'm not thrilled about our chances is that there most likely isn't a big impact player sitting in AAA to either help the offense or the starting pitching significantly enough. I hope I'm wrong, but that is one of the main reasons and the other is that Yovani is out for the year. I think that's a huge blow and possibly even a bigger blow than losing Sheets because I think most around here don't expect Sheets to pitch an entire season without a trip to the DL at some point. Yovani didn't have that worry going into this season for the most part.
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We aren't the Cubs from last year. Not even close. If we're not the '82 Brewers, then we're also not the '07 Cubs, or the '07 Phillies, or the '07 Rockies. It's getting tiring to be compared to other teams all the time.

 

Was anyone watching the way Piniella was reacting when his team was playing like crap last year? There was tension all around that team and Piniella was leading the charge. Ned, on the other hand, says that everything will be all right. We're not the '07 Cubs.

 

If there's not tension surrounding this team right now, then there should be. I'm overreacting because I think the entire team should be overreacting the way Braun did on Tuesday night. Now we need our manager to say stuff like that, rather than talk about how we're battling and things will come around.

If I had Braun's pee in my fridge I'd tell everybody.

~Nottso

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Realistically, we are only 3 games off the pace at most. Even if the Cards are for real, they won't keep this pace. The winner of the division will have a percentage in line with where the Cubs are now at best. We are 3 back of them and we've been through a tougher period of our schedule. That being said, if they don't get going soon, they really will be in a big hole.
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we're only overreacting if they turn it around soon. If they don't we're acting appropriately.

 

This is probably the most accurate post I've read on this site in quite awhile.

 

That being said, if they don't get going soon, they really will be in a big hole.
Define "soon". Ned Yost thinks "soon" is quite awhile from now. Ryan Braun thinks "soon" has passed.

If I had Braun's pee in my fridge I'd tell everybody.

~Nottso

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Just a couple numbers from this date last year...

 

Brewers: 24-10 6.5 games in front

Cubs: 16-15 6.5 games back

Phillies: 15-19 6.5 back

Rockies: 14-20 6 back

 

The difference with those numbers is that the Rockies ended the year on an absolute tear, and the Mets fell apart to help out the Phillies, who were also playing very well. We can't assume that kind of luck right at the end. Those situations aren't easily replicated.
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Are fans overreacting with regard to what the current stats (individual and team) telsl us about the true talent of the organization as a hole? I think so.

 

Are people reacting about the significance of Brewer's current record, relative to the Cardinals and Cubs? Probably not. The Brewers have dug themselves a decent hole and probably can't afford to lose 3 of 4 to the Cardinals this weekend. I still think the Brewers are the better team but not so much that they should be expected to catch up to a Cardinal team with a 7 game lead. They really can't afford to fall too far behind to the Cubs, who are the better team on paper to begin with.

 

I hate to say something like this in May but this four game series against the Cardinals has the potential to make or break the team (barring a simple series split).

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Ya, I agree with rluzinski about people who are in a fit that the talent on this team is not what we thought it was, and its time to rebuild, etc, that is overreacting IMO for sure. I believe this team is loaded with talent still, yes it has holes, but any team has holes, you overcome those holes. They are however playing with no fire that I've seen and have yet to play good baseball this season for any sustained period of time. That is what scares me and I don't think being afraid of that is overreacting. It feels like we've been waiting for a month and a half for them to turn the corner, following a whole second half last year that we were just waiting for them to turn the corner.
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Was anyone watching the way Piniella was reacting when his team was playing like crap last year? There was tension all around that team and Piniella was leading the charge. Ned, on the other hand, says that everything will be all right. We're not the '07 Cubs.

 

If there's not tension surrounding this team right now, then there should be. I'm overreacting because I think the entire team should be overreacting the way Braun did on Tuesday night. Now we need our manager to say stuff like that, rather than talk about how we're battling and things will come around.

 

Other than making you feel better, what exactly is that going to accomplish?

 

As for the Cubs last year, they didn't start playing better because Lou threw a hissy fit, they started playing better when he started to play Theriot and Fontenot more because he realized they were better options. Not to mention Soriano started hitting and Zambrano started pitching. Now, if you want to say that came as a result of Lou's tension, then all I can say is that I disagree with you and we will never know.

 

Lou has been on edge and had another inappropriate rant last Thursday. What has that tension done for the Cubs since then?

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The team's lacked offense from virtually day one of the season. Couple that with loss of Gallardo, failure to this point of 3 starters that we had hopes would be at least average, and some untimely blown saves by Gagne, and the clouds are all over this team right now. Are they capable of righting the ship? We think so at least we hope so, but we want to see signs that it's happening.

 

In the meantime, we are reacting like we should, like fans.

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No, I don't think I'm overreacting at all. In fact, it could get worse. If there was one problem, or a problem with 2 or 3 players it would be far too early to panic. But look at reality. After Sheets, the rotation is a train wreck. A closer who can't close on a consistent basis. And of course, nobody is hitting. I find it hard to believe that all of that will magically come around somehow. Why could it get worse? It's only May and Gallardo is already down. I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying there will be other significant injuries at some point.
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The Brewers were a bad team for the last 128 games of last year, and are a bad team 34 games into this year. If anything we're underreacting.

 

I'll say it again, the teams record over the last 162 games is 75-87. Thats intollerable.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

 

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..

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We are overreacting only if we were fooled into believing this team was a contender.

I think alot of us were fooled into believing that the brewers are legit contenders.

 

The biggest dissapointment is the play of the Brewers Infield at least at the Plate.

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The Brewers were a bad team for the last 128 games of last year, and are a bad team 34 games into this year. If anything we're underreacting.

 

I'll say it again, the teams record over the last 162 games is 75-87. Thats intollerable.

Intollerable or expected? Depends how much you bought into the hype. This line-up just isn't as good as many here want to believe. Underachieving? Sure, but why would be expect guys like Weeks, Hall, Cameron, Kendall, and Hardy to be hitting better than they are? This is who they are.

 

Same is true for the rotation. Just because guys like Villy and Parra have talent, I never expected them to be great starting pitchers- at least not yet. Neither has dazzling stuff. People have a man-crush on Dave Bush for some reason, and what has he ever done other than hanging on to the #5 spot in a rotation by his finger nails? Suppan is what he is. A solid #4 starter. Gagne was left for dead, and had a nice little run in TX. I never expected him to be a reliable closer.

 

Really, other than Gallardo getting injured and Braun/Fielder below where they should be at this point...nothing else really surpises me that much about this team.

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I guess it depends on which reaction you mean. I do think it's premature to consider the entire season hopeless. There's just waaaaayyyy too much baseball still to be played. At this point, a good, solid week could put the Brewers right back in the thick of things.

 

But I don't think it's too early to be considered about an all-around lackluster performance, which comes on the heels of last season's second-half meltdown. The fact is, the team just hasn't played well in awhile. I can't really be encouraged by that.

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I think it depends on whether you think things turn themselves around magically, or if need to make some changes to expect some changes. If you believe that magical regression to the statistical mean will help the team soon, then yes we are severely overreacting. If you believe that one of the things that makes stats regress to the statistical mean is players, coaches, managers and owners seeing a problem and taking direct action to correct that problem, then no we aren't overreacting. As for me - I believe the answer to which approach is right is a little of column A, a little of column B. As a result, I think that we are slightly overreacting, but should expect some changes if things continue through the next homestand.
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Underachieving? Sure, but why would be expect guys like Weeks, Hall, Cameron, Kendall, and Hardy to be hitting better than they are? This is who they are.

 

Where do you get this from? Career stats indicate this is not at all who they are, aside from Kendall & Cameron. Weeks, Hall, and Hardy should all be hitting better than they are.

 

Just because guys like Villy and Parra have talent, I never expected them to be great starting pitchers- at least not yet. Neither has dazzling stuff.

 

This may be true for Villy, but let's be honest... Parra on his game is definitely dazzling. The guy has 4 different fastballs he can throw for strikes, not to mention his off speed stuff.

 

Gagne was left for dead, and had a nice little run in TX. I never expected him to be a reliable closer.

 

Gagne is 2 years removed from surgery now, which generally is the year a bounce-back occurs... and if you've watched any of the games you can see he is actually throwing the ball pretty well. I don't really have a doubt that if he were used the same as most closers, he could easily be counted on... but when we're in this many freaking close games to where he's pitching 4+ days in a row, of course eventually he'll let one slip.

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I believe this team is loaded with talent

 

This is what I keep hearing, but where is the evidence? Other than the brief period of 34 games at the start of last season the results have been mediocre. Why is that if the team is loaded with talent?

 

My kids are "loaded with talent", of another sort, that would lead you to believe they would have excellent academic records. Yet all three of them have mediocre records. This could be because I am a poor parent or it could be because, through no fault of mine, they just don't care. Hmm, I think in either case, I am the one that should be fired, if different results are desired.

 

If the team still stinks on May 31, something needs to change and the only reasonable thing I can think of to do would be to fire Yost...whether it is really his fault or not.

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