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Hypothetical Discussion I had with a guy, input wanted...


I had a coversation with a guy this morning about Gagne and RP in general. What came of it what a arguement about how much a RP would make if he gave up one and only one run every inning he pitched. Again, just a hypothetical, but pretend there is a deal with the devil thing going on in which the RP will give up a solo shot every inning he pitches (the first batter) and no more runs afterwards (though there may be more baserunners). He would pitch 80 innings out of the pen throughout the year on average though an injury may occur.

 

So what would you pay for him...

 

80 IP-80 ER-9.00 ERA

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Up until this year, I was under the assumption that Eric Gagne had never given up a three-run lead in the ninth. Now wouldn't that be about the same thing? As for those numbers, I wouldn't want a 9.00 ERA on our staff, though I would pay money to have him set up shop in Wrigleyville.
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The key issue here is GUARANTEED. A 9.00 ERA is obviously hiddeous, but since baseball is so unpredictable any opportunity to "make a deal with the devil" to control anything would have tremendous value. Any lead over one run turns the game into an eight-inning affair. If you had a one-run lead in the bottom of the eighth, you'd have no reason to play for a big inning--you'd be content with leadoff walk, bunt, single. I'm thinking 10+ million.
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I think for the guarentee alone, 15+ or 20 (New York Money). Not only would the 9th innin gbe guarenteed but also 7th inning up by four (Going three) or 8th inning up three (Goin two).

 

You got 80 innings to play with and that's a lot of IP that are stress free.

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That question just shows how crazy the game is, and especially relief pitching. Those numbers would be terrible, but if used properly that guy could be extremely valuable. Any late inning situation where you have a lead and the 3 outs are more valuable than the one run he would help. Any game heading into the 9th with a 2 run lead would be a win. Can he go multiple innings? Close the door in the 8th and 9th if you are up by 3.
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Analyzing this a little bit...

 

First of all, it seems we are assuming this reliever is only used for save situations of greater than one run? So that's 2-3 run leads in the 9th inning. The problem is, there is no way we would find 80 innings for him in a year.

 

Looking back at our schedule, this reliever would have 8 innings of work so far: April 12th at NYM, April 13th at NYM, April 17th at St. Louis, April 19th at Cincinnati, April 20th at Cincinnati, April 29th at the Cubs, May 4th at Houston, May 11th. We would have won the April 20th game and the May 4th game at Houston, and currently have a 20-17 record. At that pace, he would save us 9 games by the end of the season and pitch 35 innings.

 

Now, that's with our closer struggling tremendously so far. So I'd really estimate that a guy like this under normal circumstances will only win us 5-6 games throughout the season that we otherwise would have lost. Would I pay $10+ million for a guy like that? You bet.

 

Depending on the "rules" of using him, it's possible he could save us more than that. If we're guaranteeing 80 innings from him and he always gives up 1 run per inning, we can always pack it up and call it a win after 7 innings if we're up by 3 or after 6 innings if we're up by 4. Assuming, of course, we are allowed to run him up to 80 innings.

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Yeah, he can be used anytime. Spot start (5IP 5 ER). 2 IP, 2 ER. Extra Inning games he wouldn't be much use.

Nope, unless we're on the road and scored 2 or more runs in the top of the inning. (April 20th, at Cincy).

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He could be used to eat up innings in blowouts as well I guess.

 

It is a silly question http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif But yeah I think he'd still be pretty darn valuable. When a RP gives up 1 run it doesn't generally bother me that much, when they give up 3 runs it is a disaster.

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Count me in with those who think that the predictability would give such a player a surprising amount of value.

 

I had a sort of similar discussion with my roommate not long ago -- we were talking about whether we'd trade Prince Fielder for a guy who walked in every PA. I was arguing for the latter, obviously.

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It's an interesting question. Even an average reliever only gives up multiple runs in an inning less than 14% if the time, so I'm not sure the guy would be worth very much. I'd have to think about it more.
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I would think the guy has to have good value. #1, you have a guaranteed closer for save situations in the 9th except in a 1 run game. (roughly 35 times a year) That's 35/35 in save situations throughout the season, and 35 runs that wouldn't make a bit of difference. Not a single blown save. For the 15 or so 1 run leads you have going into the 9th throughout the year, you use your other relievers and still win 12 out of 15 or so. That's 47 of 50 save situations converted. That's as good as any team can ask for.
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that's the thing, would you, as the manager/GM, know this is 100% true going into the season? Would the player keep it a secret (re: the deal with the devil)? If he told you about it would you, as the manager/GM, believe him?

yes, I'm quoting myself. It just dawned on me that I am Ted Simmons. Brian and Bill were talking about how Ted always seems to answer questions with another question or more. I ask questions a whole lot more often than just giving an answer.

Suddenly, I feel real old. And just a bit weirded out.

- - - - - - - - -

P.I.T.C.H. LEAGUE CHAMPION 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2007, 2011 (finally won another one)

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